每日观点 今日沪深三大指数继续上涨，沪指收获十三连阳，并创下逾十年新高。两市成交大幅放量至2.8万亿以 上，创逾三个月新高。海外方面，美国总统特朗普近期或将指定美联储新主席人选，但从两位候选人哈 塞特和沃什的背景和政策立场来看，上台后或不会做出激进宽松举动，对于美联储独立性或许不必过度 担忧。国内方面，近期政策层面靠前发力，发改委提出已下达2026年"两重"提前批项目和中央预算内投 资计划，共计约2950亿元。财政部、发改委也发布今年"两新"政策，早于过往、力争"开门红"，总体 看，"两新"继续扩围，但补贴力度可能有所减弱。市场方面，年末制造业PMI超季节性反弹，供需双双 回暖，建筑业PMI环比大幅回升，基建有望先行发力托底经济。市场方面，元旦期间港股市场与人民币 汇率走强提振投资者信心，海外资金和长线资金入市有望对市场资金面形成支撑。 【博时市场点评1月6日】两市继续上涨，沪指创逾十年新高 市场成交额为28325.64亿元，较前一交易日上涨。两融余额昨日收报25606.48亿元，较前一交易日上 涨。 数据来源：同花顺，截至2026年1月6日。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉 尽责的原则 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and stabilize financial markets, while also focusing on risk prevention and management [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to maintain ample liquidity and support economic growth [2][3]. - The monetary policy will aim to align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. Group 2: Financial Services Enhancement - There will be an emphasis on improving the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy, with a focus on supporting key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [2][3]. - The development of a specialized bond market for technology and increased credit support for consumer services will be prioritized [2]. Group 3: Financial Risk Management - The central bank will work on mitigating financial risks in key areas, including the management of financing platform debts and the identification of risks in small financial institutions [3]. - A macro-prudential management framework will be enhanced to maintain financial stability [3]. Group 4: Financial Reform and Opening Up - The central bank will deepen financial reforms and enhance the openness of financial markets, including the supervision of various financial markets and the promotion of cross-border financial services [4][5]. - Efforts will be made to facilitate the use of the Renminbi in international trade and investment, and to support the construction of international financial centers [4]. Group 5: Global Financial Governance - The central bank will engage in global financial governance reforms and enhance cooperation with international organizations to promote macro policy coordination [4][5]. Group 6: Financial Management and Service Capacity - There will be initiatives to improve financial management and service capabilities, including the development of a modern financial statistical system and the enhancement of credit repair policies [5]. - The central bank will also focus on strengthening the regulatory framework for payment institutions and virtual currencies [5].

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 霍星羽）Choice数据显示，2025年有色金属（申万行业2021年版）板块整 体涨幅为88.21%，"夺冠"全市场。步入2026年，这场"有色盛宴"是否仍将延续？ 记者采访获悉，2026 年有色板块上行逻辑不变，但波动幅度、择时难度将加大。2026年国内外宏观环境仍总体利多有色， 铜、铝、镍和锡等品种，有望出现结构性牛市。2026年一季度有色板块或迎来"开门红"。 华鑫期货研 究所所长章孜海接受上证报记者采访时表示，有色金属有商品属性和金融属性，受到宏观面与供需基本 面的双重影响。 中信建投期货有色首席分析师江露表示，2026年美联储货币政策偏鸽，大概率进一步 渐进式降息，为有色市场提供偏多环境。 章孜海预计，下半年美联储或降息两次。国内，中央经济工 作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。海内外宏观面形成共振，对风险 资产的影响偏积极。 在江露看来，贵金属价格正处于高位强势运行状态，且这种态势持续向有色板块 传导。基本面也为金属价格提供坚实支撑。需求端，"十五五"规划长期利好有色需求，"智能化、绿色 化"政策会推动新能源汽车、光伏、特高压等领域高速发展，有色 ...

国债期货月报 | 2026-01-04 财政供给预期升温，国债期货震荡走跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压 力不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上 更加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累， ...

Financial Condition Index Overview - The average daily index of China's financial conditions from December 22 to December 26, 2025, was -2.25, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The index has decreased by 0.87 over the year [1][4][28] - The components of the index indicate a loose monetary and stock market, while the bond market shows signs of tightening. The central bank maintained stable monetary supply, and market liquidity was orderly with low interest rates [1][4][28] Monetary Market - The interbank market maintained stable liquidity, with an average pledged repo transaction volume of 8.48 trillion yuan, consistent with the previous week. However, there was a noticeable decline on December 26, dropping from 8.54 trillion yuan to 7.89 trillion yuan [6][30] - Major money market rates saw an increase, with overnight repo rates averaging 1.35% and 1.26%, reflecting slight changes compared to the previous week [6][30] Central Bank Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released key policy signals during the fourth quarter monetary policy committee meeting, emphasizing the need for continued moderate monetary policy and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments [2][9][35] - The meeting highlighted the importance of integrating incremental and stock policies to effectively manage monetary policy, focusing on both short-term and long-term economic stability [3][10][36] Bond Market - The total issuance of bonds from December 22 to December 26 was 1.64 trillion yuan, a decrease of 317.94 billion yuan from the previous week, while net financing increased by 50.77 billion yuan to 235.05 billion yuan [12][38] - Government bonds saw a net financing of 266.02 billion yuan, while non-financial enterprises also achieved net financing, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [12][39] Stock Market - A-share financing totaled 29.09 billion yuan during the week, an increase of 19.19 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with total financing for the year exceeding 1.07 trillion yuan [20][46] - Major A-share indices experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.87%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.85%. Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 18.26% [22][48]

Group 1 - Ping An Life increased its holdings in Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) by 44.05 million H-shares, raising its total holdings to 5.842 billion shares, which accounts for over 19% of ABC's total H-shares [1] - The banking sector's "high dividend, low valuation" characteristic has re-emerged, with average dividend yields for A-shares and H-shares listed banks at 4.3% and 5% respectively as of December 19 [1] - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that banks will face insufficient effective credit demand in 2025, with profit growth expected to be slow [1] Group 2 - The investment logic of "high dividend, low valuation" in the banking sector remains the main investment theme, with long-term capital allocation demand expected to continue [2] - Citic Securities reports that the recent appreciation of the RMB is favorable for the performance of RMB-denominated equity assets, and the central bank's policy tools will be used more flexibly [2] - The banking sector is expected to see a stabilization in operating conditions, with a bottoming out of interest margins and a recovery in income and profits as systemic risks are reassessed [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong-listed banks in the domestic banking sector include Agricultural Bank of China (01288), China Merchants Bank (03968), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398), China Construction Bank (00939), Minsheng Bank (01988), Postal Savings Bank of China (01658), and Citic Bank (00998) [3]

| | 1、央行公告称，12月26日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了930亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量930亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量930亿元。Wind数据显示，当日562亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放368亿元。本周央行公开市场将 | | | 有6227亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一、本周二、本周三、本周日分别到期673亿元、593亿元、260亿元、4701亿元。 | | | 2、2026年全国两会召开时间确定。全国政协十四届四次会议将于2026年3月4日在北京召开，十四届全国人大四次会议 | | | 将于3月5日召开，审查"十五五"规划纲要草案列入2026年全国人代会建议议程。 3、全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策；扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支 | | | 出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。会议要求，2026年财政工作抓好六项重点任务，包括坚持内需 | | | 主导，大力提振消费，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快培育壮大新动能，进一步增加财政科 | | | 技投入；进一步强化保基本、 ...

东莞证券表示，人民币适度升值对中国股市总体形成积极利好。这一走势有助于提升人民币资产的整体 吸引力，进一步提振市场投资需求。。对于关注汇兑收益的境外机构投资者而言，他们既能赚取资产增 值收益，又能获得汇率升值带来的红利，从而实现双重收益。这种效应有望推动中国股市获得持续增量 资金流入，增强市场活力与稳定性，为资本市场长期发展提供支持。 中证1000ETF（159845）紧密跟踪中证1000指数。中证1000指数由全部A股中剔除中证800指数成份股 后，规模偏小且流动性好的1000只股票组成，综合反映中国A股市场中一批小市值公司的股票价格表 现。 行业表现来看，中证1000ETF前几大重仓行业中，电子下跌0.13%，电力设备上涨1.78%，医药生物下跌 0.05%，计算机上涨1.25%，机械设备上涨0.63%。 资金面来看，中证1000ETF（159845）近五个交易日资金净流入9.91亿元，近十个交易日净流入24.5亿 元。最新规模达490.01亿元，近一个月规模增长43.18亿。今日盘中成交额7.62亿元，近一周日均成交高 达14.12亿元，流动性较好。 近日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会第四季度会议认为，要 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a seven-day consecutive rise, with a trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [1][4][10] - The defense and military industry sector has shown strong performance, leading the market for two consecutive days [1][4] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the need for continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][8] - The PBOC's new approach shifts from increasing the intensity of monetary policy control to leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and stock policies, utilizing various tools for enhanced monetary policy regulation [1][2][8] Real Estate Policy - Beijing has introduced new real estate policies effective from December 24, 2025, reducing the social security or tax payment duration for non-Beijing residents purchasing homes within the Fifth Ring Road from three years to two years, and from two years to one year for homes outside the Fifth Ring Road [2][3][9] - The policy also supports multi-child families, allowing them to purchase an additional property within the Fifth Ring Road [3][9] Foreign Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Catalog (2025 Edition)," effective from February 1, 2026, which adds 205 new items and modifies 303 items compared to the 2022 version [3][9] - The new catalog aims to attract foreign investment in advanced manufacturing, modern services, high-tech, and energy-saving sectors, particularly in the central and northeastern regions of China [3][9] Market Performance - As of December 25, 2025, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 3959.62 points, up 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also recorded gains [4][10] - The defense and military sector, along with light manufacturing and machinery equipment, led the gains among industry sectors, with increases of 2.91%, 1.59%, and 1.51% respectively [4][10]

Group 1: Macroeconomic News - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its fourth - quarter meeting in 2025, deciding to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment, and strengthening the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices [2] - On December 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term [2] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased last week, but the unemployment rate may remain high in December due to weak employment. As of the week ending December 20, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 214,000 [2] - In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. From January to November, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 9,460.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, and the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 8,856.7 billion kWh [2] - On December 23, the assistant minister of the Ministry of Commerce, Zhang Li, chaired a round - table meeting for foreign trade enterprises, stating that the Ministry of Commerce will increase policy support to promote the innovative development of foreign trade and achieve a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan for foreign trade [3] Group 2: Commodity Market Focus - Key commodities to focus on are silver, Shanghai tin, ethylene glycol, Shanghai nickel, and PVC [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.21%, precious metals 34.91%, oilseeds and oils 7.85%, soft commodities 3.08%, non - ferrous metals 25.02%, coal, coke, steel and ore 10.10%, energy 2.24%, chemicals 10.07%, grains 1.17%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.35% [4] Position Changes - The position changes of different commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented in the chart, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, steel and ore, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind comprehensive commodities, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [6] Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of major stock indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index daily change 0.53%, monthly change 1.35%, annual change 17.58%; SSE 50 daily change - 0.08%, monthly change 1.87%, annual change 12.68%; CSI 300 daily change 0.29%, monthly change 2.37%, annual change 17.77%; CSI 500 daily change 1.31%, monthly change 4.56%, annual change 28.40%; S&P 500 daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.89%, annual change 17.48%; Hang Seng Index daily change 0.17%, monthly change - 0.15%, annual change 28.71%; German DAX daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.11%, annual change 22.26%; Nikkei 225 daily change - 0.14%, monthly change 0.18%, annual change 26.19%; UK FTSE 100 daily change 0.00%, monthly change 1.74%, annual change 21.00% [7] Fixed - income - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of major bond futures are as follows: 10 - year bond futures daily change 0.02%, monthly change 0.27%, annual change - 0.64%; 5 - year bond futures daily change - 0.01%, monthly change 0.26%, annual change - 0.48%; 2 - year bond futures daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.14%, annual change - 0.44% [7] Commodities - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of major commodities are as follows: CRB commodity index daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.06%, annual change 1.67%; WTI crude oil daily change 0.00%, monthly change 0.09%, annual change - 18.73%; London spot gold daily change 0.00%, monthly change 6.31%, annual change 70.91%; LME copper daily change 0.00%, monthly change 7.87%, annual change 37.28%; Wind commodity index daily change 3.07%, monthly change 18.07%, annual change 57.97% [7] Others - The daily, monthly, and annual price changes of other assets are as follows: US dollar index daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 1.54%, annual change - 9.75%; CBOE volatility index daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 14.37%, annual change - 19.31% [7] Group 4: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premiums of the A - share market (excluding finance, petroleum, and petrochemicals), SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [8]