Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded to 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range above the boom - bust line and indicating a positive signal of stabilizing and rising manufacturing prosperity [3][8]. - The supply and demand sides improved synergistically. The production index was 51.7% in December, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the new order index was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points. The new export order index was 49.0%, up 1.4 percentage points. High - tech manufacturing had strong momentum and provided structural support [3][9]. - Inventory is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and the purchase price index declined slightly. The raw material inventory index rose by 0.5 percentage points to 47.8%, and the finished - product inventory index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 48.2%. The purchase price index was 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [12][13]. - The rebound of PMI is expected to be the starting point for the rebound of the nominal GDP growth rate in 2026. With policy support, improved expectations, and the accumulation of internal momentum, the economy in 2026 is expected to start steadily [4][15]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Event - On December 31, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the December PMI. The manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [2][7] 12 - month Manufacturing PMI Rebound - The December PMI of 50.1% was significantly higher than the market expectation of 49.6%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April 2025. It was a counter - seasonal rebound, and its signal and continuity are worthy of attention [3][8] Supply - Demand Synergy Improvement - In terms of production, the December production index was 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points. In terms of demand, the new order index was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, and the new export order index was 49.0%, up 1.4 percentage points. High - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries showed strong momentum [3][9] Inventory and Purchase Price - The raw material inventory index rose to 47.8%, and the finished - product inventory index rose to 48.2%, still in the passive replenishment stage but showing marginal improvement. The purchase price index was 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points. The anti - involution policy's price - pulling effect may shift to mid - stream manufacturing [12][13] PMI Rebound and Economic Outlook - The rebound of PMI in December is expected to be the starting point for the marginal improvement of the economy in 2026. With the joint action of policies, expectations, and internal momentum, the economy in 2026 is expected to start steadily [4][15]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December increased to 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from 49.2% in November, marking a return to the expansion zone after 9 months[1][7] - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[1][7] Group 2: Key Support Factors - New momentum and consumer goods sectors contributed to the PMI rebound, with manufacturing PMI supported by a 1.7 percentage point rise in production and a 1.6 percentage point rise in new orders[2][8] - Emerging industries such as electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals saw PMI increases of 1.3 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, indicating improvement despite traditional sectors declining[2][11] - The construction PMI rose significantly by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, reflecting a reduction in the crowding-out effect of debt on investment[3][16] - Export resilience was noted, with the new export orders index improving by 1.4 percentage points to 49%, while domestic orders increased by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%[4][20] Group 3: Sector Performance - The overall consumer goods PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, with notable recovery in textiles and apparel, which rose by 4.5 percentage points[3][14] - The service sector PMI improved slightly to 49.7%, with new orders and employment indices showing marginal increases[5][31] - The construction sector's new orders index rose by 1.3 percentage points to 47.4%, indicating a positive trend in demand[5][36] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The report suggests that economic growth remains resilient, driven by new momentum and supportive fiscal policies, despite traditional sectors facing downward pressure[4][22] - Risks include potential changes in the external environment and the pace of growth policies not meeting expectations[5][38]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2) Core View of the Report In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, up 0.9 from the previous month, significantly higher than the market - expected 49.3, returning above 50 for the first time in 8 months. The non - manufacturing PMI business activity was 50.2, up 0.7 from the previous month, higher than the market - expected 49.5. The manufacturing PMI showed an overall recovery, while the non - manufacturing PMI was in a relatively weak state [4][21]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Review of China's Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI Data Tables - The table presents the manufacturing PMI and its sub - items for December and November 2025, including production, new orders, new export orders, etc., along with their changes [2]. Second Part: Full Recovery of Manufacturing PMI in December - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, with significant recoveries in production, new orders, new export orders, and production and operation expectations. The main raw material purchase price and employment sub - items declined. It recovered against the seasonal trend, and most sub - items were at the middle level of the historical same period, indicating economic recovery. The finished product inventory was at a relatively high level, and there was a time lag in the economic recovery reaching the price end. Small - sized enterprises' PMI declined, while large and medium - sized enterprises' PMI increased. The economic cycle also showed a repair state [4][5]. Third Part: Mixed Performance and Overall Weakness of Non - manufacturing PMI in December - In December 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI business activity was 50.2. Some sub - items such as new orders, employment, and business activity increased, while sales price, new export orders, input price, and on - hand orders decreased. The decline in input and sales prices reflected the weakness of the non - manufacturing economy. Seasonally, many key indicators were at relatively low levels in the historical same period. The construction industry PMI continued to decline, and the service industry PMI was at a relatively low level [21][22].

Group 1: PMI Overview - Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1% in December, up 0.9 percentage points from 49.2%, marking the first expansion in eight months and exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 49.2%[1] - Non-manufacturing PMI also increased to 50.2%, up from 49.5%[1] - The composite PMI for December rose by 1 percentage point to 50.7%, the highest in the second half of the year[5] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - Key drivers for the manufacturing PMI were production and new orders, with production increasing by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7% and new orders rising by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%[1] - New export orders improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, nearing the highest level of the year[2] - Manufacturing purchasing volume increased by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while raw material purchase prices decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%[2] Group 3: Construction and Services Sector - The construction sector saw a significant rebound, with the business activity index rising by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, the highest in the second half of the year[3] - Service sector PMI increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining below the expansion threshold[3] - New orders in the service sector rose by 1.8 percentage points to 47.3%, indicating some improvement despite overall weakness in consumer-related services[3] Group 4: Price Trends and Economic Outlook - Price trends showed divergence, with manufacturing output prices rebounding by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, while service and construction prices fell[4] - The overall economic recovery in December is attributed to increased fiscal spending and positive expectations for the upcoming year, particularly with the 2026 Spring Festival being later in February[4] - The necessity for aggressive monetary policy easing appears to be decreasing, with potential delays in interest rate cuts anticipated[6]

Group 1: PMI and Economic Activity - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December is 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[1] - The production index for December is 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity[2] - The composite PMI output index is 50.7%, reflecting overall economic activity improvement compared to the previous month[7] Group 2: Demand and Orders - The new orders index for December is 50.8%, rising 1.6 percentage points, indicating improved market demand in manufacturing[3] - The production expectation index for manufacturing is 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, showing increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market development[2] - The new export orders index is 49%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, suggesting stable development in manufacturing exports[3] Group 3: Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in price increases for raw materials[4] - The factory price index is 48.9%, up 0.7 percentage points, marking a second consecutive month of increase in finished product prices[4] - Price trends are diverging, with high-energy-consuming industries experiencing a decline in purchasing prices, while equipment and high-tech manufacturing maintain a faster price increase[4] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating improvement in the non-manufacturing sector[7] - The construction industry business activity index is 52.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, reflecting a return to expansion in the construction sector[7]

Group 1: PMI Performance - The national manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in December, marking a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous month, and entering the expansion zone for the first time since April[3] - The new orders index reached 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, while the production index increased to 51.7%, rising by 1.7 percentage points[5] - The supplier delivery time index increased, indicating a rise in supply chain pressures, while the employment index declined[3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - New export orders index for December was 49.0%, up 1.4 percentage points, with a cumulative increase of 3.1 percentage points over November and December[5] - The production index's improvement is the most significant in nearly a decade, reflecting synchronized recovery in supply and demand[4] - The raw material inventory index rose to 47.8%, while the finished goods inventory index increased to 48.2%, indicating a buildup of demand-side inventory[5] Group 3: Price Trends and Expectations - The purchasing price index fell to 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the factory price index rose to 48.9%, up 0.7 percentage points, suggesting improved profit distribution for downstream sectors[5] - The manufacturing business activity expectation index reached a new high for the year, indicating improved business conditions and potential increases in capital expenditure[4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, with the construction sector showing significant recovery[6]

Group 1: PMI Overview - December PMI overall rebounded, with manufacturing PMI rising 0.9 points to 50.1 and non-manufacturing PMI increasing 0.7 points to 50.2[4] - Composite PMI for December was 50.7, up 1.0 points from previous values, marking a rebound after consecutive declines in October and November[4] - Manufacturing PMI in December is notably higher than the ten-year average decline of 0.3 points for the same period, indicating a seasonal anomaly[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Large enterprises saw a PMI rebound of 1.5 points, while small enterprises experienced a contraction of 0.5 points, reflecting a divergence in business conditions[5] - December BCI was 49.8, down from 51.6, and EPMI was 49.1, down from 52.7, indicating a significant seasonal decline[6] - Construction PMI surged to 52.8 in December from below 50 for four consecutive months, influenced by favorable weather and policy-driven infrastructure investments[10] Group 3: Demand and Supply Indicators - Supply and demand indicators showed synchronized rebounds, with production and procurement indices rising 1.7 and 1.6 points respectively[6] - New orders and new export orders increased by 1.6 points and 1.4 points, respectively, indicating improved business activity expectations[6] - The business activity expectation index rose to 56.5, up from 56.2, suggesting positive sentiment among businesses[8] Group 4: Price Indices - The raw material procurement price index slightly decreased to 53.1 from 53.6, while the factory price index increased to 48.9 from 48.2, indicating a mixed price environment[10] - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are expected to continue influencing price dynamics positively[9] Group 5: Risks and Outlook - Risks include unexpected changes in the external economic and financial environment, geopolitical risks, and potential underperformance in construction activity in Q1[12] - The report suggests that domestic policy benefits and improvements in fundamentals may create favorable conditions for Q1 data[12]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion[1] - The construction business activity index is at 52.8%, up from 49.6%[1] - The services business activity index is slightly up at 49.7%, compared to 49.5% previously[1] Group 2: Key Drivers of PMI Increase - Policy measures have stimulated investment stabilization, with a central government investment plan of approximately 295 billion yuan announced[2] - New export orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 49%, marking the first increase since March 2025[2] - The later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival (February 17) has resulted in less disruption to December's physical workload compared to previous years[2] Group 3: Production and Demand Insights - The production index increased to 51.7% from 50%, while the new orders index rose to 50.8% from 49.2%[3] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November 2025, with manufacturing investment down 0.8 percentage points to 1.9%[3] - The construction sector, including housing and infrastructure, has shown signs of recovery, indicating effective fund allocation[3] Group 4: External Demand and Price Trends - The new export orders index has shown a significant increase, reflecting strong external demand amid global fiscal and monetary easing[4] - The producer price index rose by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, while raw material purchase prices decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%[7] - The gap between raw material prices and producer prices remains significant at 4.2 percentage points[7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall PMI in December shows a rebound, with manufacturing PMI rising by 0.9 points to 50.1 and non-manufacturing PMI increasing by 0.7 points to 50.2, indicating a recovery after consecutive declines in October and November [1][4][5]. Group 1: PMI Performance - The composite PMI reached 50.7, up 1.0 points from the previous value, marking a significant rebound after two months of decline [1][4][7]. - December's manufacturing PMI typically experiences a seasonal decline, with the average PMI over the past decade decreasing by 0.3 points during this period; however, this year shows a notable deviation from seasonal trends [1][4]. Group 2: Soft Indicators - Among the three soft indicators, both EPMI and BCI have shown a slowdown, with large enterprises' PMI rebounding by 1.5 points while small enterprises' PMI contracted by 0.5 points, indicating a divergence in economic conditions between large and small firms [8][10]. - The BCI, which is biased towards small and medium enterprises, has declined, while the EPMI's drop may relate to policies emphasizing the development of new productive forces [8][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand components of the PMI have rebounded in a relatively balanced manner, with production and procurement indices rising by 1.7 and 1.6 points, respectively; new orders and new export orders increased by 1.6 and 1.4 points [2][10]. - Business activity expectations also rose by 0.3 points, reflecting positive sentiment in anticipation of supportive policies from the central economic work conference regarding investment, consumption, and real estate [2][10]. Group 4: Price Indices - The raw material purchasing price index slightly decreased from a high level, while the factory price index continued to rise, supporting the notion that "anti-involution" measures are having an effect [2][13]. - The central economic work conference has set a tone for addressing "involution-style competition" by 2026, suggesting ongoing changes in supply-demand relationships and pricing [2][13]. Group 5: Construction Sector Insights - The construction PMI saw a significant rebound to 52.8 after being below 50 for four consecutive months, influenced by favorable weather conditions and proactive construction efforts ahead of the upcoming holidays [18][19]. - The rebound in the construction sector is also linked to the rollout of policy financial tools in the fourth quarter, which is crucial for maintaining momentum into the March construction season [18][19]. Group 6: Summary of December PMI - The December PMI reflects a seasonal rebound in manufacturing under the guidance of the central economic work conference's policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [22]. - The construction sector's recovery after four months of low performance is attributed to investment stabilization and the impact of previously implemented financial policies [22]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" efforts are contributing to improvements in factory price indices, creating favorable conditions for a strong start in the first quarter of the following year [22].

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite output all rose above the expansion threshold, indicating an overall improvement in the economic climate [2][3]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, marking the first time it has entered the expansion zone since April [3]. - Production index and new orders index were at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases of 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Sixteen out of twenty-one surveyed industries reported a rise in PMI compared to the previous month, indicating improved production and operational conditions [3]. - Large enterprises' PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.8%, while medium-sized enterprises were at 49.8%, and small enterprises fell to 48.6% [3][4]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector [5]. - The service sector's business activity index was 49.7%, with certain industries like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth [5]. - The construction sector saw a significant increase in its business activity index to 52.8%, driven by favorable weather conditions and pre-holiday construction activities [5]. Group 3: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index reached 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7]. - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to this composite index, standing at 51.7% and 50.2%, respectively [7].