Report Information - Report Title: Stock Market Adjustment, Bond Market Rebound - Report Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Liu Yang - Contact: liuyang18036@greendh.com - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3063825 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0016580 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was to rise first and then fall. There is an obvious seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. The yield curve of Treasury bond cash bonds has changed little. The manufacturing PMI in August continued to be below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand being slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index increased slightly. The export of South Korea in August showed a certain growth. The wholesale price of agricultural products continued to rise, and the inflation pressure was limited in the short term. If the stock market continues to be strong, it may suppress the bond market; if the stock index adjusts, it will be beneficial to bond bulls [5][7][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - The main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. On Monday, they refused to fall and rebounded to close a medium - positive line. On Tuesday, there was a small - scale fluctuation adjustment. On Wednesday, they attacked again and closed a medium - positive line. On Thursday, they rose and then fell slightly. On Friday, they fell sharply. For the whole week, the 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.18%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% [5] Stock - Bond Seesaw - The Wind All - A Index hit a new high on Monday this week, then fell for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday, and rebounded sharply on Friday. Although the Treasury bond futures showed independence on some single days, the overall stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious [7] Changes in the Yield Curve of Treasury Bond Cash Bonds at Maturity - As of September 5, compared with August 29, the 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1 BP to 1.41%, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield fell 2 BP to 1.61%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 1 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield fell 3 BP to 2.11% [9] Manufacturing PMI in August - The official manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. Large - scale enterprises continued to expand in the boom range, medium - sized enterprises' prosperity declined, and small - scale enterprises hovered at a low level. The PMI of the equipment manufacturing industry and high - tech manufacturing industry increased. The procurement volume index increased, indicating that corporate procurement activities accelerated [12] Production and Demand in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The production index in August was 50.8%, showing continuous expansion. The new order index was 49.5%, indicating that market demand was still slightly weak. Industries such as medicine and computer communication electronics had rapid production and demand release, while industries such as textile and clothing and chemical raw materials had insufficient production and demand [14] New Export Orders and Import Index in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The new export order index in August was 47.2%, and the import index was 48.0%. The new export order index changed little compared with July. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm, the two sides agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, and China's export growth in August might be acceptable [17] Price Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The purchase price index of major raw materials in August was 53.3%, and the ex - factory price index was 49.1%. The purchase price index of raw materials continued to be in the expansion range, and the expansion amplitude increased in August. The prices of some industries rose, while those of some industries were below the critical point. The average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index in August was basically the same as that in July [19] Inventory Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The raw material inventory index in August was 48.0%, and the finished - product inventory index was 46.8%. The finished - product inventory index fell to a relatively low level again. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits was 4.8%, and the year - on - year growth of finished - product inventory was 2.3%. Manufacturing enterprises were cautious about increasing inventory [22] Business Expectation Indexes in the Manufacturing Industry in August - The employment index in August was 47.9%, hovering at a relatively low level. The business activity expectation index was 53.7%, showing a slight rebound in the expectation of future prosperity [24] Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index in August - The non - manufacturing business activity index in August was 50.3%. The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, and the service industry business activity index was 50.5%. Some industries such as capital market services and transportation were in a high - level boom range, while industries such as retail and real estate had weak prosperity [26] Construction Industry Indexes in August - The new order index in August was 40.6%, and the employment index was 43.6%. The business activity expectation index was 51.7%. Affected by weather conditions, the prosperity of the construction industry slowed down [29] Service Industry Indexes in August - The new order index in August was 47.7%, and the employment index was 45.9%. The business activity expectation index was 57.0%, showing a slight upward trend [31] South Korea's Exports in August - South Korea's exports increased by 1.3% year - on - year in August. The daily average export amount calculated by working days increased by 5.8% year - on - year. The semiconductor export amount reached a record high, and the automobile export also showed strong momentum [34] Agricultural Product Price Index - The Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index on September 5 was 117.93, higher than that on August 31 but significantly lower than the same period last year, indicating that the price continued to rise but was still lower than last year [37] Nanhua Industrial Products Index - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index continued to decline after hitting a closing high on July 25. It declined slightly in August and fluctuated narrowly this week, indicating limited short - term inflation pressure [39] Capital Interest Rates - After the end of the month, the capital interest rates fell to a low level this week. The weighted average of DR001 was between 1.31% - 1.32%, and the weighted average of DR007 was around 1.44%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was around 1.66%. The central bank carried out a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) repurchase operation on Friday, which fully offset the due amount [41] Market Logic and Trading Strategies - The manufacturing PMI in August continued to be below the boom - bust line, with economic downward pressure still obvious. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately. The strong rebound of the Wind All - A Index on Friday corresponded to the unilateral decline of Treasury bond futures. If the stock market continues to be strong, it may suppress the bond market; if the stock index adjusts, it will be beneficial to bond bulls. The trading - type investment should conduct band operations [44][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have recently adjusted, and together with the shrinking market trading volume, the short - term index faces certain adjustment pressure. However, in the long - run, policies still support the capital market, and the main strategy is to go long on dips [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The Chinese President proposed to build an AI application cooperation center; the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting; the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of repurchase operations; Wu Qing aimed to consolidate the stable and positive momentum of the capital market [10]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In July, industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment from January to July increased by 1.6%, and retail sales rose by 3.7% year - on - year. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points. In July, M1 and M2 growth rates were 5.6% and 8.8% respectively. The social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, and exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% respectively [10]. - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: In August, the stock market rose significantly, causing the 10 - year Treasury bond rate to rebound and the credit bond rate to decline, with a lower credit spread and loose liquidity [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small number of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term discount; hold IF long positions for six months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3857.93, up 7.97%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 12696.15, up 15.32%, etc. [14]. - **Futures Market**: IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed varying degrees of increase [15]. 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: In Q2 2025, GDP growth was 5.2%. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%. In July, consumption growth was 3.7%, exports increased by 7.2%, and investment growth was 1.6% [31][34][37]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 semi - annual report, the revenue growth rate was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% quarter - on - quarter, and the net profit growth rate was 2.5% year - on - year and down 1.0% quarter - on - quarter [40]. 3.4 Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate rebounded, and the 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate is presented in the chart [43]. - **Credit Environment**: In July 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 5.6% and 8.8% respectively. The social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, mainly due to government bonds and bill financing growth, while resident and corporate credit data declined [54]. 3.5 Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, 20.528 billion shares of partial - stock funds were newly established, and ETF trading volume increased rapidly. In August, the margin trading balance increased by nearly 300 billion yuan, reaching a record high [60][63]. - **Outflow**: In August, major shareholders had a net increase of - 34.467 billion yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 7 [66]. 3.6 Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 11.83, 13.85, 32.09, and 44.68 respectively; the price - to - book ratios (LF) were 1.29, 1.44, 2.13, and 2.37 respectively [70].

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI increased from 50.1 in July to 52 in August, exceeding market expectations of 51, indicating economic expansion[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.1%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7 in August, but remained below the market expectation of 49, indicating a continued contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - The employment index in the services sector slightly improved from 46.4 to 46.5, indicating ongoing weakness in the job market[2] - The price index for services decreased marginally from 69.9 to 69.2, but remains significantly high compared to the post-pandemic average[2] - If August's non-farm payrolls are below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts in September or October[1] Market Outlook - The new orders index in manufacturing surged from 47.1 to 51.4, marking the highest expansion rate since the beginning of the year[2] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from inflation risks to a more balanced assessment due to recent labor market data adjustments[2] - Further rate cuts are anticipated in December and potentially two more in the following year as economic growth stabilizes and inflation decreases[1]

Group 1: Economic Data and Currency Movement - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) rose above 0.6525, driven by optimistic GDP data and a reduction in risk aversion [1] - Australia's GDP grew by 0.6% in Q2, double the growth rate of 0.3% in Q1, and exceeded market expectations of 0.5% [7] - The annualized GDP growth rate for Q2 was 1.8%, higher than the revised Q1 rate of 1.4% and market expectations of 1.6% [7] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6520, having broken a rising trend line, indicating a potential shift from bullish to bearish momentum [4] - Key support levels are identified at the nine-day moving average of 0.6516 and the five-day moving average of 0.6502; breaking these levels could confirm bearish sentiment [5] - On the upside, the pair may rebound to around 0.6540, testing previous highs of 0.6568 and 0.6625 [6] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Australia's CPI rose by 2.8% YoY in July, surpassing the previous value of 1.9% and the expected 2.3%, reducing the likelihood of recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [9] - Building permits in Australia fell by 8.2% in July, exceeding the expected decline of 4.8% [9] - China's Caixin Services PMI unexpectedly increased from 52.6 in July to 53.0 in August, indicating stronger service sector activity [8]

Group 1 - The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows slight improvement, with the manufacturing PMI rising from 49.3 in July to 49.4 in August, and the non-manufacturing PMI increasing from 50.1 to 50.3, indicating a trend of price index improvement related to industry efforts to reduce excessive discounting [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adjusted the daily midpoint exchange rate of the USDCNY to 7.1030, marking a new low for the year, signaling a proactive move to strengthen the RMB against the USD, with expectations of the exchange rate falling to 7.0 by year-end and below 7.0 next year [3][4] - The Chinese government's "Artificial Intelligence Action Plan" aims to accelerate AI application in the economy, with targets for AI application rates in key sectors set at 70% by 2027, 90% by 2030, and 100% by 2035, emphasizing industrial over consumer applications [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure overall, but there may be variables with anti - involution hype. It is recommended to buy on dips for the short - term soda ash main contract. - The glass market is expected to continue consolidating. It is recommended to buy on dips for the glass main contract. The glass supply remains at a low level, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory reduction trend remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of a restocking market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1276 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from the previous day; glass main contract closing price: 1135 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 141 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash main contract open interest: 1420969 lots, down 10459 lots from the previous day; glass main contract open interest: 1324537 lots, down 3230 lots from the previous day. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 295010 lots, down 16840 lots from the previous day; glass top 20 net open interest: - 203082 lots, down 350 lots from the previous day. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 5082 tons, down 118 tons from the previous day; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2026 tons, down 5 tons from the previous day. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 3 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous day; glass September - January contract spread: - 195 yuan, down 16 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash basis: - 102 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; glass basis: - 79 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1165 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day; Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - East China light soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Central China light soda ash: 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - Shahe glass sheets: 1056 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day; Central China glass sheets: 1090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 82.47%, down 6.01 percentage points from the previous week; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.68%, up 0.34 percentage points from the previous week. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged from the previous week; glass in - production production lines: 224, up 1 from the previous week. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 181.93 tons, down 4.82 tons from the previous week; glass enterprise inventory: 6256.6 ten - thousand weight boxes, down 104 ten - thousand weight boxes from the previous week [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative value of new construction area in real estate: 352060000 square meters, up 48416800 square meters; cumulative value of real estate completion area: 250340000 square meters, up 24673900 square meters [2]. Industry News - Multiple soda ash production enterprises have reduced production, shut down for maintenance, or reduced their loads, including Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical, Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical, Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical, etc. - The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be loose, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure. The inventory reduction process may be repeated. - Glass: Supply remains at a low level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory reduction trend remains unchanged. There is a possibility of a restocking market [2].

Market Overview - The bond market continued to recover on September 3, with government bond futures rising across the board and interbank bond yields falling by 1-2 basis points [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan in the open market, indicating a mixed trend in funding rates [1][5] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.46% to 117.150, while the 10-year futures increased by 0.21% to 108.160 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 1.25 basis points to 1.755% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.5 basis points to 4.260% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 4.6 basis points to 3.581% [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance's three types of government bonds had weighted average yields lower than the market estimates, with the 182-day bond yield at 1.3101% [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 229.1 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.316% [5] Institutional Insights - The "fixed income +" products faced significant redemption pressure recently, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6] - The basic economic recovery is in line with market consensus, suggesting a capped range for interest rates, while the current market conditions may limit sustained increases in government bonds [7]

#数据 印度8月服务业PMI业务活动从7月的60.5升至62.9，创下2010年6月以来最快扩张速度，标普全球称，需求旺盛、效率提升和新业务流入是主要推动因素。印度8月综合PMI从7月的61.1升至63.2，扩张速度为近17年来最快，整体就业人数增长速度较7月更显著。🗒️服务业PMI业务活动指数的调查基于“业务活动水平与前一个月相比如何”这个单一问题。 ...

Group 1 - The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI rose to 55.5 in August 2025, marking the highest level since April 2022, indicating continuous growth in the private sector for 11 consecutive months [1][2] - The overall new business in the Australian private sector grew at the fastest pace in 40 months, driven by the recovery of new export business [2] - The services sector's business activity index increased from 54.1 in July to 55.8 in August, also reaching the highest level since April 2022, indicating sustained expansion in the services sector [2] Group 2 - Private enterprises in Australia accelerated hiring to address backlog orders, reflecting improved business confidence compared to July [2] - Despite strong demand, the growth rates of cost prices and product prices in the services sector have moderated [2] - The data suggests a strong and broad-based growth in the Australian economy in August, increasing the likelihood of positive GDP growth in the third quarter [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On September 2, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends, with IF down 0.72%, IH up 0.35%, IC down 1.8%, and IM down 1.85%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions of all contracts also increased. The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On September 2, the closing price of CSI 300 was 4490.45, down 0.74%; IF2509 was 4481.2, down 0.72%. The closing price of SSE 50 was 2992.88, up 0.39%; IH2509 was 2992.8, up 0.35%. The closing price of CSI 500 was 6961.69, down 2.09%; IC2509 was 6896.2, down 1.80%. The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7313.88, down 2.50%; IM2509 was 7251.4, down 1.85% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of IF increased by 51,069 lots, IH by 26,017 lots, IC by 46,175 lots, and IM by 85,941 lots. The total positions of IF increased by 21,717 lots, IH by 12,783 lots, IC by 18,794 lots, and IM by 26,043 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of IF2509 was -9.25, IH2509 was -0.08, IC2509 was -65.49, and IM2509 was -62.48 [1]. - **Top 20 Member Position Changes**: The top 20 members' long - position and short - position changes varied among different contracts. For example, in IF2509, the long - position increased by 8,797 lots and the short - position by 7,564 lots [5]. 3.2. Trend Strength The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.3. Important Drivers - **Overseas Market**: The Nasdaq fell 1.7%, with chip stocks leading the decline. The yields of long - term bonds soared, and the price of gold broke through the $3,500 mark. The three major US stock indexes opened lower, with the Dow down 0.9%, the S&P 500 down 1.25%, and the Nasdaq down 1.7%. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August continued to contract for the sixth consecutive month, but new orders improved and the price index declined again [6]. - **Domestic Market**: In August, the central bank's MLF had a net investment of 300 billion yuan, PSL had a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase in the open market had a net investment of 300 billion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3,858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.85%. The A - share trading volume was 2.91 trillion yuan, up from 2.78 trillion yuan the previous day. Most sectors performed poorly, with only a few sectors such as banks, reducers, and gold showing strength [7].