Group 1: EU-US Trade Relations - The EU is considering imposing tariffs on €93 billion worth of goods imported from the US as a retaliation against US tariffs on eight European countries [3] - A joint statement from eight European countries highlighted that the threat of tariffs undermines transatlantic relations and could lead to a dangerous cycle of retaliation [5] Group 2: US Federal Reserve Leadership - The nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to be announced this week, with speculation that Kevin Warsh is the likely candidate [6] - The decision may be influenced by President Trump's loyalty test, which has affected other candidates like Rick Reed and Kevin Hassett [6] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market - Platinum and palladium prices have experienced a downward trend, with platinum futures down 3.17% and palladium futures down 9.04% as of January 16 [8] - The recent price adjustments are attributed to the market's disappointment over tariff expectations on key minerals, as the US has opted for a negotiation window rather than immediate tariffs [9] - The prices of platinum and palladium have seen significant increases since 2025, with platinum rising over 155% and palladium over 100% [10] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The core issue for platinum and palladium lies in their heavy industrial usage and unique fundamental challenges, with the transition to electric vehicles posing a threat to palladium demand [11] - Current inventory trends show a slight increase in platinum stocks while palladium stocks are decreasing, indicating differing market dynamics [11] - Analysts suggest that while the market is currently in a consolidation phase, long-term demand for platinum remains stable due to hydrogen energy prospects, while palladium's price is supported by short-term supply constraints [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in platinum and palladium prices is attributed to the market's disappointment regarding tariff expectations on key minerals, as the U.S. government has opted for a negotiation window rather than immediate tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 16, platinum futures closed at 610.05 yuan per gram, down 3.17% weekly, while palladium futures closed at 469.35 yuan per gram, down 9.04% weekly [1]. - International platinum and palladium prices have seen increases of over 155% and 100% respectively since 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the U.S. government's decision to delay tariffs reflects a balance between maintaining supply chain stability and encouraging domestic industry [2]. - The current market for platinum and palladium is characterized by high volatility, driven by macroeconomic factors and the ongoing geopolitical landscape [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The platinum market is experiencing a slight inventory build-up, while the palladium market remains in a de-stocking phase, with NYMEX platinum inventory rising to 664,400 ounces and palladium inventory decreasing to 207,000 ounces as of January 16 [4]. - The demand for palladium is heavily reliant on internal combustion engine vehicles, which face long-term challenges due to the shift towards electric vehicles [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while the platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, palladium may face a long-term supply-demand imbalance, although current tightness in the spot market provides some price support [5]. - The combination of potential interest rate cuts and a soft landing for the economy could enhance the price elasticity for platinum in the long term [5].

Group 1: EU and US Trade Relations - The EU is considering imposing tariffs on €93 billion worth of US goods in response to US tariffs on eight European countries [2] - A joint statement from eight European countries warns that the threat of tariffs could damage transatlantic relations and lead to a dangerous cycle [3] Group 2: US Federal Reserve Leadership - The nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair may be decided this week, with speculation focusing on Kevin Warsh as the likely candidate [4] - Kevin Hassett appears to be close to being eliminated from consideration despite his loyalty to Trump, as Trump has expressed a desire to keep him in his current position [4] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Trends - Platinum and palladium prices have experienced a downward trend, with platinum futures down 3.17% and palladium futures down 9.04% as of January 16 [5] - The recent price adjustments are attributed to the market's disappointment over tariff expectations on key minerals, as the US has opted for a negotiation window rather than immediate tariffs [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Price Fluctuations - International platinum and palladium prices have seen increases of over 155% and 100% respectively since 2025, with significant volatility observed in early 2026 [7] - The core issue for platinum and palladium lies in their heavy industrial usage and unique fundamental challenges, with platinum facing a shift towards electric vehicles and palladium's demand being closely tied to internal combustion engines [8] Group 5: Inventory and Supply Chain Insights - As of January 16, NYMEX platinum inventory rose to 664,400 ounces, while palladium inventory decreased to 207,000 ounces, indicating differing supply dynamics [8] - Analysts suggest that the current market for platinum and palladium is in a consolidation phase, with prices facing downward pressure but maintaining a healthy support level [9]

2025年，黄金以逾60%的年度涨幅成为最受瞩目的资产类别之一，全球科技股走出强劲上涨行情，美元 指数则大幅下跌。2026年，全球市场将如何演绎？A股的主线又将如何表现？带着上述问题，上海证券 报记者采访了惠理集团投资组合总监盛今。 多重因素支撑黄金凸显韧性 "2025年，黄金的表现并非由单一因素驱动。"盛今表示，地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧、美元走弱、货 币政策预期放宽、强劲的价格动能、创纪录的资金流入，以及各国央行的持续购买，均对金价上涨形成 了贡献。 在盛今看来，这种多元化的支撑，凸显了黄金作为资产类别的独特韧性。历史数据显示，黄金与美元指 数长期负相关，而2025年美元指数的显著下跌为黄金提供了关键助力。他认为，黄金在2026年有望 以"结构性强劲"而非"投机过度"的姿态继续获得支撑。 2025年，受"去美元化"浪潮、对美国经济前景的担忧等因素影响，美元指数跌幅一度超过10%。展望 2026年，盛今认为美元走势将受到几股力量的"拉扯"。 但盛今同时提醒，随着板块估值整体抬升，2026年的投资重心应更加聚焦企业自身的盈利表现与前景。 对于近期走强的消费股，盛今从政策、宏观、估值三个维度进行了分析：政策方面 ...

多家受访机构认为，当前亚洲资产在全球范围内具有显著的吸引力。全球最大资管公司贝莱德最新发布 的一份调查报告显示，被调查的投资者正计划显著增持亚洲股票，这反映出市场对该地区作为全球增长 引擎的信心日益增强。 2025年，黄金、白银两大贵金属大幅上涨，与此同时国际油价持续低迷、美元指数走弱。展望2026年， 多家机构对全球大类资产的走向进行研判：亚洲股市在流动性支持与增长潜力下前景良好；受益于避险 需求与宽松的货币环境，黄金、白银等贵金属有望维持强势；在全球能源转型与经济放缓的双重影响 下，原油或将持续承压。 施罗德投资亚洲多元资产投资团队表示，对亚洲市场持积极态度。2026年以来市场上涨趋势的背后，反 映了更广泛的宏观经济转变。这一转变正在重塑全球资产配置格局，并为在美国以外的市场创造出新的 增长机会。在此背景下，将投资组合多元化配置至美国以外地区具有重要价值。 进入2026年，亚洲市场表现出色：截至1月15日，韩国综合指数上涨13.84%，日经225、深证成指、恒 生指数均涨逾5%。纳斯达克、标普500、法国CAC40指数等表现则相对落后。 "我们相信，宏观环境将在2026年继续利好亚洲资产，主要受充裕的资本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are reminiscent of the market conditions in 2015, but the underlying macroeconomic environment and market dynamics are fundamentally different [1][5]. Group 1: Market Comparison - Both 2015 and the current period experienced significant price corrections following a notable upward trend, indicating a technical pullback phase [3]. - In 2015, gold prices fell from a peak of $1900, entering a clear downtrend, while current prices remain above $4500, indicating a high-level consolidation within a long-term upward trend [5]. - The market dynamics in 2015 were primarily driven by a strong U.S. economy and the initiation of a rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, whereas the current market is influenced by complex factors including expectations of global central banks shifting towards rate cuts and geopolitical risks [5][6]. Group 2: Demand Structure and Market Participants - In 2015, gold demand was mainly driven by investment and jewelry consumption, leading to high volatility, whereas current demand is characterized by central banks acting as stable net buyers, providing a solid structural support for prices [6]. - The role of gold as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty has increased, with its allocation in global asset management rising [6]. Group 3: Investor Preparedness - Investors should prepare for higher volatility, with daily price fluctuations of 1-2% becoming the norm, necessitating stronger risk tolerance or the adoption of cost-averaging strategies [8]. - Long-term allocation of gold as a stabilizing asset in portfolios is recommended, rather than attempting to predict short-term price movements [8]. - Consumers should approach gold prices with a rational mindset, understanding that jewelry prices include significant craftsmanship and brand premiums, which may not directly reflect the base gold price [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the potential for gold prices to continue rising in 2026 after a significant increase in 2025, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and global demand for gold [1][3][4] Group 2 - The first pillar indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which dropped rates from 5.5% to 3.25%, were a major driver for the gold price surge in 2025, but future cuts may be limited due to persistent inflation [1][3] - The second pillar highlights that countries like China, Russia, and Turkey purchased a record 1,200 tons of gold in 2025, as they seek to reduce reliance on the US dollar amid geopolitical tensions [3][4] - The third pillar points out that global gold mining output has been declining for five consecutive years, with production dropping to 3,600 tons in 2025, while demand continues to rise, creating a significant supply-demand gap [4][6] Group 3 - The article advises investors to be cautious, suggesting that they should not exceed 10% of their total assets in gold investments and to set stop-loss and take-profit levels [6][9] - It warns against the risks of speculative trading in gold, citing past instances where prices dropped sharply following interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [7][9] - The article concludes that gold should be viewed as a safe haven asset rather than a quick profit opportunity, emphasizing the importance of a long-term investment perspective [9]

Core Insights - The share of US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased by 2.48 percentage points from Q1 2022 to Q3 2025, reaching a record low of 56.92% [1] - The ICE US Dollar Index fell by 9.4% in 2025, marking the largest annual decline in eight years, amid concerns over the US economic policies and the weakening of the dollar's credit [1] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining traction, but the relationship between the dollar's reserve status and its exchange rate is not stable [1][7] Group 1: Historical Context - Since the 2008 financial crisis, there has been a reflection on the current dollar-based international monetary system, with calls for a more stable reserve currency [2] - The dollar's share in global reserves was 64.68% at the end of 2016, higher than at the end of 2008, but began to decline after 2017, dropping a total of 7.76 percentage points by Q3 2025 [2] Group 2: Recent Developments - From Q1 2022 onwards, the main beneficiaries of the diversification of international reserve assets have been physical reserve assets, particularly gold, which saw its share increase by 11.93 percentage points [4] - The dollar's share in global reserves decreased by 8.93 percentage points during the same period, while other major reserve currencies also saw declines [4] Group 3: Dollar Index Performance - Despite the decline in dollar reserves, the dollar index increased by 1.9% from Q1 2022 to Q3 2025, indicating a divergence between the dollar's reserve status and its strength [5][6] - The dollar index's performance is influenced by various factors, including the depreciation of other major currencies against the dollar [6] Group 4: Factors Influencing Dollar Status - The rise in gold's share in global reserves is attributed more to the increase in gold prices rather than central bank purchases, which contributed only 12.3% to the increase in gold reserves [8] - The dollar remains dominant in international payments and foreign exchange transactions, with a 48.15% share in global payment currencies in 2025, an increase from 2021 [9] Group 5: Future Considerations - The evaluation of the dollar's international status should consider multiple dimensions, including private sector interest in dollar assets, which remains strong despite official sector reductions [11] - The complexity of factors influencing exchange rates suggests that the progress of international reserve asset diversification should not be solely relied upon to predict dollar index movements [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Short-term gold prices may fluctuate, but the medium-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. In 2026, there is a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates twice, which is favorable for gold. Long - term factors such as the continued decline of the global US dollar reserve ratio, the increase in US fiscal deficit, and the expected decline in real interest rates also support gold. It is expected that gold will remain optimistic in the first half of 2026. The report suggests holding gold long - term positions and setting stop - profits in the short - term, and considering buying call options [1][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly View and Strategy Fundamental View - In 2026, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 6.88% and 5.60% respectively; last week, they were 2.36% and 2.57% respectively. - Inflation: CPI reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined moderately. PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since September 2024, CPI has been strongly volatile, and core inflation has remained stable. In December 2024, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, which is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut. - Interest rates: The interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds has been declining since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range fluctuations in 2024, the treasury bond yield continued to decline in 2025 and fluctuated around the lowest point since 2023, with short - term stabilization or rebound. - Supply and demand: In 2024, the global gold supply and demand were loose, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand were in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand showed a structural change, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand increased significantly, and investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, exceeding the whole of last year in the first three quarters. Due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold market may be greatly affected, and domestic gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. - US economy: In December, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. The November data was revised downward by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000. In December 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.10% year - on - year, continuing to decline by 0.19% from the previous month [6] Strategy View and Outlook - Outlook: The main gold futures contract was volatile at a high level last Friday. Due to the rapid changes in geopolitical conflicts, short - term fluctuations may occur, but the medium - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. The lawsuit against the Fed chairman reflects US political turmoil and a stronger expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026, which is favorable for gold. Continue to pay attention to non - farm payroll data and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. From the December Fed meeting, the probability of two interest rate cuts in 2026 has increased, which is a dovish interest rate cut and favorable for gold. The market expects the new Fed chairman to be dovish, so interest rate cuts in 2026 are likely to meet expectations. In the long - term, the global US dollar reserve ratio continued to decline in the second quarter, the US fiscal deficit continued to increase, and de - dollarization is ongoing, which is favorable for gold's monetary attribute. In terms of financial attributes, it is expected that the real interest rate will continue to decline in 2026, which is also a positive factor for gold in the medium - term. For the commodity attribute, due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold demand may be greatly affected, and gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. It is necessary to pay attention to whether central bank gold purchases and investment demand can make up for the decline in jewelry demand. In summary, the long - term positive factors for gold still exist, so gold is expected to remain optimistic in the first half of 2026. - Operation suggestions: Hold gold long - term positions and set stop - profits in the short - term. Consider buying call options [10] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Last week, gold prices fluctuated upwards. In 2026, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 6.88% and 5.60% respectively; last week, they were 2.36% and 2.57% respectively [22][28] 3. Inflation - CPI reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined moderately. PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since September 2024, CPI has been strongly volatile, and core inflation has remained stable. In December 2024, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, which is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut [32] 4. Interest Rates - The interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds has been declining since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range fluctuations in 2024, the treasury bond yield continued to decline in 2025 and fluctuated around the lowest point since 2023, with short - term stabilization or rebound. In November, inflation dropped significantly, and the real interest rate increased [37][41] 5. US Economy - In the third quarter, the US GDP increased by 2.33% year - on - year, up from 2.08% in the second quarter. In December 2025, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, continuing to decline by 0.3%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, showing continuous strength. In December, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. The November data was revised downward by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000. In December 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.10% year - on - year, continuing to decline by 0.19% from the previous month [44][48] 6. Gold Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - When the gold supply and demand are in a tight balance, it helps the gold price rise, but when in a weak balance, it has little impact on the gold price. In 2024, the global gold supply and demand were loose, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand were in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand showed a structural change, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand increased significantly, and investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, exceeding the whole of last year in the first three quarters. Due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold market may be greatly affected, and domestic gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. In the third quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases were 219.85 tons; in the second quarter, they were 172.02 tons; in the first quarter, they were 248.57 tons. Since November 2022, the Chinese central bank has continuously purchased gold. In 2023, it purchased 224.88 tons; since 2024, it has purchased 44.17 tons. In 2025, the Chinese central bank purchased 26.74 tons. In terms of ETF demand, in 2023, the gold holding decreased by 113.69 tons; in 2024, it decreased by 28.46 tons; in 2025, it increased by 294.73 tons; in 2026, it decreased by 7.2 tons [54][57][60] 7. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned 8. Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Only mentioned the reasonable range of the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets, no specific data 9. Gold Basis - Not provided in the given content 10. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - Only relevant charts are mentioned, no specific data

Market Overview - The commodity market has shown significant differentiation since 2025, with precious metals like gold and silver leading the market, increasing by 63% and 111% respectively, while energy and agricultural products have underperformed, with crude oil down 16% and agricultural indices only slightly up by 3% [5][12] - As of early 2026, metals such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum continue to rise, with smaller metals like nickel and tin experiencing sharp increases, indicating a clear rotation in the market and heightened investor sentiment regarding the potential onset of a new super cycle in commodities [5][12] Historical Super Cycles - Since 1850, there have been five historical super cycles in commodities, characterized by a pattern of "bull short, bear long," with the average upward phase lasting about 13 years and a price increase of approximately 75%, while the downward phase averages 21 years with a price decline of about 47% [5][13][21] - The first cycle (1850-1898) was driven by the spread of the Industrial Revolution and global infrastructure development, while the second cycle (1899-1932) was influenced by the Second Industrial Revolution and World War I, leading to price increases in strategic resources like copper and oil [14][16][21] Bullish Logic: Financial Attributes and Industrial Trends - The bullish argument is primarily based on the safe-haven value and industrial demand, with global monetary easing and fiscal expansion contributing to a noticeable recovery in economic sentiment across major economies [23][25] - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization has positioned commodities as a preferred option for sovereign nations to hedge against credit devaluation, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves, indicating a potential rise in commodity ETF allocations [25][30] Bearish Views: Demand Slowdown and Policy Constraints - Bearish concerns focus on the demand side, highlighting a lack of new engines for growth, particularly as emerging economies like India exhibit "dematerialization" growth, leading to lower metal consumption per unit of GDP [64] - Central banks are increasingly prioritizing inflation control, which may lead to a tightening response to rapid commodity price increases, potentially suppressing overall commodity market space [64][66]