20 25年4月23日至24日，二十国集团（G2 0）主席国南非在美国华盛顿举 行今年第二次G2 0财长和央行行长会议。会议讨论了全球经济展望、完善 国际金融架构、应对非洲发展和增长困境等议题。财政部部长蓝佛安，中 国人民银行行长潘功胜出席会议并发言。 蓝佛安：关税战、贸易战进一步影响经济金融稳定 2025年4月23日至24日，二十国集团（G20）主席国南非在美国华盛顿举行今年第二次G20财长和央行行长会议。会议主要就全球宏观经济形势和金融稳 定、国际金融架构以及促进非洲增长和发展等议题进行了讨论。财政部部长蓝佛安出席会议并发言，副部长廖岷陪同参会。 来源 | 财政部、中国人民银行 编辑丨丁开艳 责编丨兰银帆 往期回顾 Review of Past Articles - 蓝佛安表示，当前世界经济增长动能不足，关税战、贸易战进一步影响经济金融稳定。中方坚定维护以世界贸易组织为核心的多边贸易体制，主张通过平 等对话协商解决贸易和关税争议，也将坚定维护自身正当权益。各方应通过加强多边合作进一步完善国际经济金融体系，积极推动多边开发银行改革，有 效推进国际复兴开发银行股权审议，务实完善《缓债倡议后续债务处理共同框架》 ...

Core Insights - Temu, launched by PDD, has rapidly grown to 292 million monthly active users by the end of 2024, with 185.6 million in the U.S., becoming the most downloaded shopping app globally [2] - The Trump administration's new tariffs on Chinese goods could significantly impact Temu's growth and PDD's strategy to diversify away from China [4] - Meta Platforms has benefited from Temu's advertising spending, but Temu's decision to reduce ad purchases could pose risks to Meta's revenue [5][13] Group 1: Temu's Growth and Impact - Temu's user base reached 292 million MAUs globally by the end of 2024, with a significant portion in the U.S. [2] - The app's growth may be threatened by new tariffs that could impose up to 245% on imports from China, affecting PDD's business model [4] - Temu's advertising expenditures on Meta's platforms have been substantial, with estimates of $1.4 billion in 2024, representing 1% of Meta's total revenue [13] Group 2: Meta's Financial Performance - Meta's revenue and earnings per share saw significant growth from 2022 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 19% and 67%, respectively [8] - In 2023, Meta's revenue from China surged 85% to $13.7 billion, accounting for 10% of its total revenue, and continued to grow by 34% to $18.4 billion in 2024 [10][11] - Despite the challenges, China remains Meta's fastest-growing market, driven by increased ad spending from Chinese companies [12] Group 3: Risks from Trade Relations - Meta's reliance on Chinese advertisers like Temu makes it vulnerable to the impacts of rising tariffs and trade tensions between the U.S. and China [14] - The potential loss of ad revenue from Temu and other Chinese e-commerce platforms could disrupt Meta's financial stability, despite its primary revenue being from advertising [14]

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近 来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方 有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美 双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华 关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政 府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后， 将实现净投放 5000 亿元。3 月央行超量续作 MLF，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油：SC 上涨 1%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产 量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。 他还表 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】据央视新闻，当地时间4月24日获悉，美国 联邦储备委员会理事克里斯托弗·沃勒当日警告称，美国总统 特朗普引发的贸易战可能很快会导致失业率上升。评：美联储 官员提示经济下行风险。隔夜美联储官员密集发生，降息预期 增加，美股有所反弹。经济下行压力对黄金依然存在支撑，黄 金下方空间亦有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏多思路为宜。关注 俄乌冲突谈判及美联储降息预期。 【短评-原油】据央视新闻消息，当地时间4月24日，美国 联邦储备委员会理事克里斯托弗·沃勒警告称，美国总统特朗 普引发的贸易战可能很快会导致失业率上升，沃勒强调，一旦 劳动力市场出现严重恶化，他预计很快会有更多降息；特朗普 指出，乌克兰和俄罗斯都有实现和平的意愿，双方都必须加入 谈判；美国国务院：国务院政策规划局局长迈克尔·安东与特 使维特科夫将于周六前往阿曼，与伊朗举行技术会谈；中国外 交部明确辟谣中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更 谈不上达成协议。评：原油短期库存压力不大，前期行情节奏 围绕OPEC+增产，补偿性减产协议，哈萨克斯坦言论影响。后期 市场面临关税、美伊及俄乌停火谈判，欧佩克+产量等多重因素 的结 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。特朗普松口，欲将对中国减税，说一个月 内达成协议，短期有震动变化，继续观望。到了下半年，我们要面对几 个变数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种 植棉花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%， 新年度棉花丰产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨， 2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比较大。显然目前美国贸 易战选择了 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-4-25） 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求季节性回升，库存低位小幅减少，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，下游地产行业继续处下行周期； 偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，后市需求或降温，贸易战有缓和迹象，震荡偏空思路对待，rb2510：3080- 3150偏空操作 2、基差：螺纹现货价3180，基差74；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存508.6万吨，环比减少，同比减少；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓空增；偏空 利多： 产量库存维持低位，消费环比增长。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减 ...

首席点评：央行 MLF 操作，黄金强势依旧 中美没有就关税问题磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。据新华网，有记者问：近来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈 判，甚至将会达成协议。你能否证实双方有没有开始谈判？外交部发言人郭嘉昆说，这些都是假消息。"据我了解，中美双 方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"特朗普考虑对华关税分级方案。央视网援引《华尔街日报》报 道，美方高级官员透露，特朗普政府正考虑多种方案。中国央行 25 日将开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，将实现净投放 5000 亿。本月有 1000 亿元 MLF 到期，在 4 月 25 日进行 6000 亿元 MLF 操作后，将实现净投放 5000 亿元。 3 月央行超量续作 MLF ，实现净投放 630 亿元，是 2024 年 7 月以来 MLF 首次净投放，展现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、集运指数 原油 ： SC 上涨 1% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家 利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on April 25, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products such as soybeans, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs [1] Soybean/M粕 Core View - Domestic soybean meal fluctuated on Thursday, with spot prices rising significantly. The market expects soybean meal and soybeans to accumulate inventory in the next three months, and downstream buyers are cautious about taking delivery. The soybean oil mill operating rate declined, and soybean meal sales and delivery were weak. The Brazilian soybean premium is expected to strengthen, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has a tendency to rise steadily. However, the trade war and weak macro - environment could suppress soybean prices [2][3] Key Information - On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal price first rose and then fell, with the lowest national spot price reaching 3,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume of soybean meal was 112,600 tons, and the delivery was weak. The soybean oil mill operating rate was 40.82%, expected to recover to 39.02% this week, with a planned crush of 1.3883 million tons [2] - Overnight, the US soybean oil price soared, driving up the US soybean price. Due to high tariffs on US soybeans, China mainly imports soybeans from Brazil. The Brazilian soybean premium has the potential to strengthen, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has a tendency to rise steadily. However, the trade war and weak macro - environment could suppress soybean prices [3] Trading Strategy - The cost range of the 05 soybean meal contract is 2,750 - 2,850 yuan/ton, and that of the 09 and other far - month contracts is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, US soybeans are under pressure from the trade war but are strongly supported by low valuations, reduced planting area, and increased demand for US soybean oil. The Brazilian soybean premium is currently under pressure but is expected to stabilize in the medium term. Domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] Oils Key Information - ITS and AMSPEC estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports increased by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April, 13.5% - 17% in the first 15 days, and 11.9% in the first 20 days. SPPOMA's high - frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.97% in the first 15 days and 9.11% in the first 20 days of April. UOB and MPOA estimate a more than 16% increase in the first 20 days [7] - Overnight, the US soybean oil price soared. The Advanced Biofuels Association urged the EPA to increase the RVO for 2026 to 5.75 billion gallons, up from the current 3.35 billion gallons. In 2024, the US produced nearly 4.9 billion gallons of advanced biofuels [7] Trading Strategy - A decline in the crude oil price center will suppress the valuation of oils. If palm oil production recovers significantly, oils may be bearish. Although Malaysian palm oil production has recovered, it is supported by improved high - frequency exports in April and low inventory levels. In the medium term, if the macro - environment stabilizes, oils may be supported by the expected increase in RVO [9] Sugar Key Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the September contract was 5,945 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and processing sugar prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. As of April 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded increased to 1.8711 million tons [11] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the raw sugar price has fallen due to the weak macro - market, but the Zhengzhou sugar price is relatively resistant to decline. The supply is still tight in the short term due to lower - than - expected production in the Northern Hemisphere and low inventory and shipping volumes in Brazil. In the long term, if the weather improves in 2025, sugar production may increase significantly in the 2025/26 season, and sugar prices may fall from high levels [12] Cotton Key Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the September contract was 12,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton increased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,850 yuan/ton. US President Trump said he would "significantly reduce" high tariffs on China, and US Treasury Secretary Yellen expected the "trade war" between the two largest economies in the world to ease [14] Trading Strategy - After the US postponed the tariff collection, the US cotton price rebounded significantly, but China's exports to the US are still restricted, causing a divergence in the short - term price trends of domestic and foreign cotton. Currently, the domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. If downstream consumption weakens, cotton prices may fall; if it improves, there may be a rebound opportunity [15] Eggs Key Information - The domestic pig price mostly fell yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.06 yuan to 14.91 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan dropped by 0.11 yuan to 14.69 yuan/kg. Slaughter orders are limited, and the second - round fattening in some areas has cooled down, putting pressure on pig farmers to support prices [17] Trading Strategy - High positions have made the futures market structure unstable. After the feed price increase, the downstream inventory replenishment expectations have changed, and the inventory at all levels has decreased significantly, leading to a joint rebound in futures and spot prices. However, there are few and short - term positive factors in this season, and the mid - term price increase of eggs may lack sustainability. After the position risk further decreases, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait for short - selling signals [18] Hogs Key Information - The domestic pig price mostly fell yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.06 yuan to 14.91 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan dropped by 0.11 yuan to 14.69 yuan/kg. Slaughter orders are limited, and the second - round fattening in some areas has cooled down, putting pressure on pig farmers to support prices [20] Trading Strategy - The short - term spot price fluctuation is limited, but the pressure is accumulating due to the increasing pig weight. The futures market has partially reflected the market's bearish expectations for the future, but the downward space is also limited due to the discount. Adopt a range - trading strategy, and pay more attention to short - selling opportunities after the futures and spot prices rebound due to emotions such as hoarding, second - round fattening, and inventory replenishment. Before the contradictions deepen, adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading approach [21]

Market Overview - US stock indices experienced a significant rise for the third consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones up 486.83 points (1.23%), Nasdaq up 457.99 points (2.74%), and S&P 500 up 108.91 points (2.03%) on April 24 [1] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks saw substantial gains, with Tesla, Amazon, and Microsoft rising over 3%, while Google and Meta increased by more than 2%, and Apple rose nearly 2% [2] - The semiconductor sector led the gains, with Micron Technology and Broadcom up over 6%, Intel and AMD rising over 4%, and Nvidia increasing by more than 3% [2] - Nvidia's market capitalization increased by $90.8 billion (approximately ¥661.8 billion) in one night [2] Company Earnings Reports - Alphabet (Google's parent company) reported Q1 revenue of $90.23 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, exceeding the expected $89.1 billion. Earnings per share were $2.81, up from $1.89 a year ago, and also above the forecast of $2.01. The operating profit was $30.61 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year, surpassing the expected $28.86 billion. The board authorized a stock buyback of up to $70 billion [6] - Intel reported Q1 revenue of $12.67 billion, a slight decline of 0.4% year-over-year, but above the expected $12.31 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.13, down from $0.18 a year ago, but above the forecast of $0.01. The data center and AI revenue was $4.13 billion, exceeding the analyst expectation of $2.96 billion. Intel projected Q2 revenue between $11.2 billion and $12.4 billion, below the market estimate of $12.88 billion. The company reduced its total capital expenditure target for 2025 from $20 billion to $18 billion, leading to a post-earnings drop of over 7% in its stock [7] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.68%, with notable gains in popular Chinese stocks such as NIO and Futu Holdings, which increased by over 6%, and Pinduoduo, Baidu, NetEase, and Bilibili rising over 2%. Xpeng Motors surged by 39.41%, and ZYBT rose by 34.91% [7][8] Commodity Market - International precious metals futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.04% to $3,361.30 per ounce, and WTI crude oil futures up by 0.84% to $62.79 per barrel [9]

每经编辑 陈鹏程 王晓波 据央视新闻消息，当地时间4月24日，美国联邦储备委员会理事克里斯托弗·沃勒警告称，美国总统特朗普引发的贸易战可能很快会导致失业率上升。沃勒表 示，若关税维持现状，7月之前将不会对美国经济造成显著影响。如果特朗普政府恢复激进的关税水平，企业可能会开始裁员，如果失业率大幅上升，他将 支持降息。 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨0.80%，报62.77美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨0.59%，报66.51美元/桶。 国际金价大幅反弹，现货黄金涨1.83%，报3347.95美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货涨2.04%，报3361.30美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨0.01%，报33.87美元/盎 司。 欧洲三大股指收盘小幅上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.47%报22064.51点，法国CAC40指数涨0.27%报7502.78点，英国富时100指数涨0.05%报8407.44点。 2 目前中美未进行任何经贸谈判 外交部、商务部再次表明中方立场 1 隔夜市场 美股三大指数全线收涨，为连续第三个交易日上涨，道指涨1.23%，标普500指数涨2.03%，纳指涨2.74%；科技股普涨，特斯拉、亚马逊、微软涨 ...