1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of strong gold and weak silver, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold rising 0.56% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver falling 0.28% [1]. - In the short - term, there are still risks of repeated Trump trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and the Sino - US trade talks are expected to focus on rare earths and export controls. The second - day consultation between the two countries went smoothly, and a trade framework was reached [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the anxiety of US people about the future inflation path in May has eased. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the total expected interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC net long positions in silver and iShare Silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold 3.1.1 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are suggested [2]. 3.1.2 Gold - related Data - International prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $3344.80 per ounce, down $1.90 (-0.06%) from the previous day and down $32.10 (-0.95%) from last week; London gold closed at $3337.70 per ounce, up $18.40 (0.55%) from the previous day and up $2.95 (0.09%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 777.54 yuan per gram, up 2.48 yuan (0.32%) from the previous day and down 4.88 yuan (-0.62%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 774.54 yuan per gram, up 1.72 yuan (0.22%) from the previous day and down 5.14 yuan (-0.66%) from last week [2]. - Other data: such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc., have different changes compared with the previous day or last week [2]. 3.1.3 Top 10 Net Positions of Shanghai Gold by SHFE Members - The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 members increased, while the net short positions decreased [3]. 3.2 Silver 3.2.1 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are suggested [6]. 3.2.2 Silver - related Data - International prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $36.66 per ounce, down $0.25 (-0.68%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.71%) from last week; London silver closed at $36.76 per ounce, up $0.51 (1.41%) from the previous day and up $2.51 (7.33%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8902 yuan per kilogram, up 15 yuan (0.17%) from the previous day and up 439 yuan (5.19%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 8882 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and up 441 yuan (5.22%) from last week [6]. - Other data: such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc., have different changes compared with the previous day or last week [6]. 3.2.3 Top 10 Net Positions of Shanghai Silver by SHFE Members - The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 members had different changes, and the net short positions decreased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate (IORB) all decreased by 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets were $67236.32 billion, down $5.14 billion (-0.00%) [8]. - Other economic indicators: M2 increased by 0.83 percentage points year - on - year; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, the US Treasury yield spread, etc., all had different changes [8][10]. - Central bank gold reserves: China's gold reserves were 2296.37 tons, up 4.04 tons (0.18%); the US had 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world had 36250.15 tons, unchanged [10][12]. - Other indicators: such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, trade, etc., all had different changes [10]. - Fed's latest interest rate expectations: The probability of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates is provided [13].

Core Viewpoint - The EU is preparing significant countermeasures against the US, including tariffs on over $100 billion worth of American goods, as trade negotiations intensify and the deadline approaches [1][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - The EU believes that trade negotiations with the US may extend beyond the July 9 deadline, with only a principle agreement likely to be reached by then [1][2]. - EU officials have engaged in frequent discussions with US counterparts, focusing on key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aviation [2]. - Despite a seemingly positive negotiation atmosphere, the EU perceives the US demands as unilateral and potentially skewed in favor of Washington [2]. Group 2: Countermeasures Prepared by the EU - The EU has prepared a two-tiered response plan, with the first tier targeting $210 billion worth of US goods, including politically sensitive products like soybeans and poultry [4]. - The second tier is more aggressive, aimed at $950 billion worth of US products, specifically targeting Boeing aircraft, American-made cars, and bourbon whiskey [4]. - The EU estimates that current US tariffs affect approximately €380 billion ($434 billion) of EU exports to the US, representing about 70% of total EU exports to the US [3]. Group 3: EU's Stance on Tariffs - The EU Commission has expressed readiness to defend its interests and protect its workers, consumers, and industries, while also indicating a preference for reducing tariffs rather than increasing them [6].

| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/6/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | -42.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 2001.500 | 1371.1 | +18.70↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | -59.80↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 630.40 | 446.60 | -49.90↓ | | EC合约基差 | +40.60↑ | -378.69 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -891↓ | 44603 | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 369.99↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1622.81 | 2,185.08 | 466.94↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 167.64↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 2240.35 | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 37.37↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） | 1154 ...

Core Points - The U.S. is pressuring China to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, revealing its anxiety over the trade situation [1][3] - China's rare earth exports fell by 34% in May, with significant impacts on military-grade materials [3][5] - The U.S. faces a long and costly process to rebuild its rare earth supply chain, estimated to take 8-10 years and require hundreds of billions of dollars [5] - The trade war is reshaping global supply chains, with China transitioning from a reactive stance to a rule-setting position [3][5] - The U.S. is experiencing a dual challenge of needing to constrain China while simultaneously relying on its resources [5][9] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The U.S. delegation, including key economic officials, is demanding China restore rare earth exports to April levels [1] - There is a disconnect in the negotiations, with the U.S. pushing for concessions while China calls for the removal of recent export restrictions [5][9] - The U.S. has violated previous agreements, such as the Geneva consensus, which has weakened the economic relationship [7] Group 2: China's Strategic Position - China holds significant leverage in the rare earth market, controlling 92% of refining and 99% of heavy rare earth processing [3] - The country is also advancing in other strategic sectors like renewable materials and biotechnology, further enhancing its bargaining power [5][9] - China's customs data shows a sharp decline in graphite electrode exports to the U.S., critical for the American steel industry [7] Group 3: Economic Implications - A complete decoupling of U.S.-China technology could lead to a global GDP decline of $1.5 trillion, equivalent to the entire economy of Australia [7] - The ongoing trade tensions are detrimental to both nations, with the U.S. potentially facing greater losses if it continues its current approach [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货79215，基差335，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月10日铜库存减2000至120400吨，上期所铜库存较上周增1613吨至107404吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 1、美国全面关税超预期。 2、全球经济并不乐观，高铜价会压制下游消费。 3、铜材出口退税取消 每日汇总 近期利多利空分 ...

农产品早报 2025-06-11 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆小幅收涨，美豆局部干旱及中美接触有所助力，不过美豆总体优良率较高限制涨幅。周二国内 豆粕现货小幅下跌，因压榨量处于高位，供应宽松，华东低价报 2820 元/吨，国内豆粕成交较弱，开机 率较高，不过提货较好，下游仍在补库。后续大豆、豆粕库存预计仍然维持累库趋势，不过由于前期开 机延迟等，油厂库存压力相对后移。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，不过爱荷华州及以北降雨偏少。巴西升贴水涨跌互现， 或因销售进度偏慢，但雷亚尔升值提供支撑。25/26 年度美豆面积下降，单产的扰动使得总产量容易下 调，美豆如果没有宏观走弱的驱动，新年度可能是震荡筑底的过程。不 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% last week, driven by signs of easing in the US-China trade war[11] - The Nasdaq 100 increased by 2.0%, while the Russell 2000 saw a rise of 3.2%[11] - The trade war has shown signs of thawing, with a meeting between US and Chinese officials being viewed as a significant step towards negotiations[11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index surged from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, marking the first increase since November of the previous year[20] - The April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[25] - The unemployment rate slightly increased from 4.187% in April to 4.244% in May, indicating a rise in joblessness despite a modest increase in non-farm payrolls[35] Group 3: Market Risks - There is a persistent trend of de-dollarization in global liquidity, as investors show reduced confidence in US dollar assets[16] - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month[41] - The forecast for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) has been revised downwards by approximately 4.0% in April and May, reflecting concerns over inflation and tariffs[46]

但我发现，特朗普这一次对中国加征关税的时候，几乎就听不到这样的话了。因为，这一次大家都看得非常清楚，美国不仅是对中国征税，而是对地球上几 乎所有的国家和地区，包括只有企鹅居住的小海岛。 我记得，特朗普在第一个任期对中国加征关税的时候，许多朋友感到非常害怕，总觉得是中国哪里做错了，或者太高调、太得瑟了，所以招致了美国的报 复。而且，中国一定顶不住美国的报复，迟早要完蛋。 这些朋友很喜欢反省自己。《论语》说"吾日三省吾身"，他们恨不得一天反省30次、300次。对他们来说，美国是非常完美的国家，那么公平、正义，又有 爱心，怎么会做错呢？所以，错的一定是中国。 其实，在第一任期，特朗普也不是只对中国征税，包括欧盟、印度、墨西哥、加拿大、韩国、澳大利亚，都被美国征了关税。但有些朋友就是选择性无视， 说起来好像美国只是在针对中国一个国家。 就比如美国制造业的衰落，它是最近几年才衰落的吗？不是，而是三四十年累积的结果。我读中学那会，就学到了Rust Belt这个词，也就是铁锈带。这与美 国营商环境恶化、劳动力素质降低、基础设施老旧、供应链断裂、官僚体系效率过低等问题直接相关。真正应该解决的，是这些问题。 这些问题解决了，根 ...

Group 1: Economic Context - The Kondratiev wave signifies the long-term cycles of the world economy, marked by the rise and fall of great powers, with the 1930s trade war reflecting the economic dynamics of that era[1] - In the 1930s, the U.S. was a trade surplus and creditor nation, while the U.K. was a trade deficit and debtor nation, a reversal of roles seen today with China as a creditor and the U.S. as a debtor[11] - Current global trade accounts for 30% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4-5% in the 1930s, indicating a deeper integration of the global economy[11] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The decline of the British pound in the 1930s was due to economic decline, depleted gold reserves, and debt defaults, paralleling current challenges faced by the U.S. dollar[2] - The U.S. government debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with interest payments over 3% of GDP, raising concerns about the dollar's stability[11] - Gold prices increased from $17 to $35 per ounce between 1931 and 1934, reflecting the depreciation of fiat currencies during monetary system transitions[31] Group 3: Tariff Impacts - The economic impact of tariffs today is expected to be greater than in the 1930s due to the higher global trade integration, with tariffs potentially affecting employment and income levels[3] - Historical data shows that tariffs in the 1930s did not significantly raise inflation in deficit countries, suggesting that current tariff impacts may also be limited in terms of price levels[3] - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to exceed $900 billion in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to China, highlighting ongoing trade tensions[25] Group 4: Policy Responses - The U.S. response to the Great Depression involved abandoning the gold standard and expanding the money supply, a strategy mirrored by China's recent dual monetary and fiscal easing policies[4] - Current U.S. tariff policies may lead to a fragmented trade system, similar to the 1930s, as countries seek to establish trade agreements independent of U.S. influence[4] - The political demand for tariffs is driven by widening wealth gaps, with historical parallels drawn to the 1930s when similar economic pressures led to protective measures[4]

据环球网援引日本《朝日新闻》消息，日本和美国的第五轮关税谈判未取得进展，日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮表示双方尚未找到共识 。美日谈判陷入僵局， 而日本首相石破茂态度突变，这背后有着诸多复杂因素。 石破茂（资料图） 石破茂态度转变有着多方面原因。从经济利益考量，日本汽车产业是其经济支柱之一，若按照美国要求限制汽车出口，日本经济将遭受重创。农业方面，大 量农业就业岗位与当前农产品关税政策相关，降低关税会引发国内农业领域动荡。在外交层面，日本也在尝试多元化发展。日本加强与东盟国家的合作，积 极推动区域经济合作；在处理与中国关系上，也有积极信号释放，中国是日本重要的贸易伙伴，2023 年中日贸易额达 3500 亿美元，日本期望通过改善对华 关系，在经济合作中获取更多利益，减少对美国市场的过度依赖。此外，日本持有 1.1 万亿美元美债，这成为日本在谈判中的重要筹码，日本暗示必要时可 能抛售美债作为对美国关税政策的反制手段。 美日谈判若持续破裂，双方可能爆发贸易战。美国可能对日本汽车加征 25% 关税，日本也计划对 34 亿美元美国农产品实施反制。这不仅会冲击美日双边贸 易，还将影响全球供应链，特别是汽车和半导体产业。若达成协 ...