1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the polyester production growth rate is expected to gradually slow down, but the demand growth rate is still estimated to reach around 4.5%, maintaining resilience. The terminal weaving orders have declined comprehensively, and the demand negative feedback will gradually spread upstream. The polyester load is expected to decline from late December, with the monthly average polyester load in January - March estimated at 89%, 84%, and 89.5% respectively. In the off - season, the demand side is difficult to drive prices upward [1]. - For MEG in 2026, the main trend will return to a pattern of oscillating and bottom - grinding. With the successive launch of new production capacities, high - level operation and high valuation are difficult to maintain. After the inventory accumulation expectation, the valuation has been rapidly compressed. Although the static supply - demand balance has improved, the cost side may bring additional negative factors. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation to clear marginal production capacities, and the "reversal" may depend on macro - narrative drivers [1][19]. - PTA's production cut since the fourth quarter of 2025 has exceeded market expectations, alleviating the PX - TA structural contradiction. In 2026, there are plans to launch two PX production facilities with a total capacity of 5 million tons, expected to be put into operation after the third quarter, while PTA is not expected to have new capacity launches. In the first half of 2026, PTA's supply is expected to be tight against downstream demand, but the final inventory reduction depends on PTA's production cut intensity. PX's supply - demand pattern is favorable, and it is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. However, before the upward driver appears, there may be a phased correction [2][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review 3.1.1 MEG Market Review - In Q1 2025, MEG prices dropped significantly due to cost collapse and weakening supply - demand patterns. In January, prices oscillated at a high level; in February, they rebounded slightly and then fell; in March, they were in low - level consolidation [3]. - In Q2 2025, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. The price once hit a low of 3956 yuan/ton and then rebounded. The geopolitical events in June led to price fluctuations [4]. - In Q3 2025, the "anti - involution" sentiment affected prices. The price reached a high of 4580 yuan/ton and then oscillated [4]. - In Q4 2025, MEG's valuation was continuously compressed with inventory accumulation and weak cost, and the price showed an oscillating downward trend [4][5]. 3.1.2 PTA Market Review - In Q1 2025, PTA prices mainly fluctuated with the cost, oscillating between 4700 - 5350 yuan/ton [8]. - In Q2 2025, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. The price once dropped to 4016 yuan/ton and then rebounded [9]. - In Q3 2025, PTA prices oscillated widely between 4500 - 5000 yuan/ton under the influence of cost and macro factors [10]. - In Q4 2025, PTA prices lacked a core driver after a rebound, oscillating narrowly between 4550 - 4800 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.2.1 MEG - In 2026, MEG will be in an oscillating and bottom - grinding pattern. The short - term weak pattern will continue, with port inventory expected to reach over 1.1 million tons in Q1 2026. The demand negative feedback will spread upstream, and the cost side remains weak [19][20]. - The "anti - involution" as a macro - mainline trading focus may repeatedly dominate the commodity market. The risk points for upward rebound mainly include unexpected reduction in large - scale production facilities, macro - policy benefits, and significant cost increase [23]. 3.2.2 PTA - PTA's production cut since Q4 2025 has alleviated the PX - TA structural contradiction. In 2026, PX has new capacity launch plans, while PTA has none. In H1 2026, PTA supply is tight against downstream demand, and PX is expected to be in a favorable supply - demand pattern, prone to rising and difficult to fall [2][26]. - In the near - term, the negative feedback from the terminal will spread upstream, and PX's valuation may correct. In the long - term, PX is expected to maintain an upward - prone pattern, and PTA's processing fee may be further repaired, but the supply - benefit dynamic balance will be the long - term main logic [28][29]. 3.3 Chapter 4: MEG Industry Analysis 3.3.1 MEG Industry Pattern Analysis - China's MEG production capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, changing from supply shortage to over - supply. In 2025, new capacity launches led to inventory accumulation expectations and a decline in valuation [33]. - Currently, the total MEG production capacity in the Chinese mainland is 30.275 million tons, with ethylene - based capacity accounting for 63% and coal - based capacity accounting for 37%. The production efficiency of coal - based MEG has improved, but it is expected to face pressure in 2026 [33][34]. 3.3.2 MEG Supply Analysis - In 2025, China's MEG production increased mainly due to the increase in operating rates. However, after the launch of new capacity in September, the valuation was under pressure, and the production profit of coal - based MEG was compressed in Q4 [36]. - In terms of product switching, some enterprises switched production between EO and EG based on production efficiency. In 2026, under the background of loose supply - demand, the MEG load is expected to decrease year - on - year [37]. - In 2025, the MEG import volume increased year - on - year, and the import source concentration increased. If India's anti - dumping policy is implemented, the global MEG logistics pattern may be reconstructed [48][49]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Sheet Analysis - In Q1 2026, MEG is expected to have a slight over - supply, with an estimated cumulative over - supply of about 350,000 tons. In Q2, if the maintenance plans are implemented as scheduled and the polyester demand is in the peak season, there may be a supply - demand gap of about 300,000 tons. The annual demand growth rate is estimated at around 4.5% [57]. 3.4 Chapter 5: PTA Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 PX - PTA Industry Pattern Analysis - China's PX production capacity expansion has paused since 2024, while PTA has maintained a high - speed growth trend. The PX supply - demand pattern is relatively tight, while PTA has an over - supply problem, and the clearing of backward production capacities and the increase in exports are the main focuses for improving the supply - demand structure [59]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply Analysis and Valuation Feedback - In 2025, PTA's processing fee showed significant fluctuations. In Q4, due to production cuts, the processing fee was repaired, but in the long - term, it is expected to remain under pressure. In 2026, the supply - benefit dynamic balance is expected to be maintained, and the processing fee's upward space is limited [63][64]. 3.4.3 PTA Export Demand Analysis - In 2025, PTA exports decreased year - on - year, mainly due to the new production capacity in Turkey. The export reduction was partially transferred to other countries [67]. 3.4.4 PTA Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2026, the polyester load is expected to decline seasonally. In Q1, PTA is expected to have a slight over - supply of 100,000 - 150,000 tons, and in Q2, there will be a large supply - demand gap. The actual inventory reduction depends on the restart plans of PTA production facilities [74][75]. 3.5 Chapter 6: Polyester Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Start - up Performance - In 2025, polyester production increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and the production capacity growth rate slowed down. Currently, the terminal orders have declined, and the polyester demand load is expected to decline from late December. In Q1 2026, the polyester load is estimated at 89%, 84%, and 89.5% in January - March respectively [77]. 3.5.2 Macro - demand - In 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4% year - on - year, while textile and clothing consumption maintained a low - speed growth. The export demand was affected by international situations, with the growth rate decreasing in the second half of the year [98][103].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 交通运输 关注元旦航旅出行预定数据与委内瑞拉油轮进展 周观点：航旅纵横大数据显示，截至 12 月 17 日，元旦假期国内、跨境航线 机票预订量同比分别增长 46%、18%；16 日，ICE 布油收 58.84 美元（盘中 最低 58.72 美元），为 5 月来首次。继续看好"扩内需"及"反内卷"下航空 板块中长期景气度，在油汇环境友好环境下航司盈利有望不断改善。基于周期 视角，在制裁趋严、OPEC+增产逐步反馈到出口的背景下，行业周期逻辑渐 明，可关注板块回调中的布局机会，重点关注招商轮船、中远海能 H/A。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 2.04%，跑赢上证指数 2.01 个百 分点（上证指数上涨 0.03%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨幅前三名 的板块分别为航空运输、跨境物流、公交，涨幅分别为 6.84%、3.10%、2.82%； 仅公路货运板块下跌，跌幅为-1.76%。 出行：航旅纵横大数据显示，截至 12 月 17 日，元旦假期国内、跨境航线机 票预订量同比分别增长 46%、18%。继续看好"扩内需 ...

烧碱：后期仍有压力 PVC：趋势偏弱 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：后期仍有压力 供应 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.7%，较上周环比-1.5%。分区域来看，华北有前期负荷不满装置提负，负荷小幅上 升，华北+0.3%至82.4%，其中山东-0.1%至92.9%。华东、西南、华中、华南负荷下滑，华东、华南地区存在企业检修，负荷下滑明显 ， 华东-6.0%至71.9%，西南-5.3%至79.0%，华南-4.6%至84.5%，华中-0.8%至81.9%。其它大区基本稳定。 需求 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，利润被持续压缩，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽然年底到明年年 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective rise with nearly 4,500 stocks closing in the green, and the trading volume reached 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 704 billion yuan from the previous day [1][18] - The Shanghai Composite Index has recovered above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, facing resistance around 3,900 points, with the 60-day moving average at approximately 3,912 points being a critical level for potential upward movement [1][20] - The chemical sector, represented by the Chemical ETF (516020), saw a significant increase of 1.75%, marking three consecutive days of gains, with a total inflow of over 2 billion yuan in the past five trading days [3][22] Group 2 - The overall outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with expectations of a transition from policy-driven momentum to profit-driven growth, indicating a "bull market continuation" phase [2][21] - The chemical industry is expected to see a bottoming out and gradual recovery, with improvements in supply-demand dynamics and a favorable valuation environment, as the price-to-book ratio of the Chemical ETF is at a relatively low level [5][24] - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to regain upward momentum due to improved liquidity expectations and a focus on technology and innovation sectors, particularly in AI applications [9][10][11] Group 3 - The chemical sector's performance is bolstered by a recovery in traditional demand and the emergence of new industries, with inventory levels showing signs of replenishment [5][24] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) has attracted significant capital inflows, totaling 13.3 billion yuan over the past ten days, reflecting strong investor interest in the sector [1][10] - The AI application sector is witnessing increased activity, with major companies like Tencent and Meituan making advancements in AI technologies, which could drive future growth [9][14]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased volatility since December, reflecting a series of important events impacting liquidity and fundamental expectations, leading to a cautious and speculative sentiment among investors [1][27] - The recent Federal Reserve meeting and the domestic Central Economic Work Conference have set a more favorable overall tone than market expectations, laying a good foundation for a potential market rally [1][32] - The U.S. employment and inflation data released this week did not trigger further pessimism, instead providing more room for the Fed to consider further easing, with the November unemployment rate slightly rising and CPI data significantly below expectations [1][30] Group 2 - Japan's recent interest rate hike of 25 basis points did not lead to the anticipated liquidity shock from carry trade unwinding, as market expectations were already priced in [4][30] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that further data would be needed before making additional rate decisions, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward [4][30] - The convergence of various international events affecting liquidity expectations, combined with a supportive domestic policy environment, is expected to shift investor behavior from cautiousness to actively seeking opportunities [6][32] Group 3 - Historical patterns indicate that market rallies often require a catalytic event, with potential signals for the current rally categorized into three types: strong macro policy shifts, year-end market performance stabilization, and early-year market dynamics [7][33] - The current market conditions align with the second category, where strong performance throughout the year leads to a rally after year-end disturbances are resolved [7][33] - Key indicators to watch for potential rally signals include the possibility of interest rate cuts and improvements in fundamental data such as PPI, PMI, and corporate earnings forecasts [17][19] Group 4 - The investment strategy should focus on sectors benefiting from economic recovery and supportive policies, particularly in cyclical industries and new consumption trends [20][22] - High-growth sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing are expected to lead the market rally, supported by favorable liquidity conditions and risk appetite [24][22] - The market is anticipated to transition from a balanced style to favoring small-cap and technology growth sectors as the rally progresses [18][24]

【导读】车企在激烈厮杀中告别2025，未来竞争更残酷 中国基金报记者 邱德坤 "我觉得每一家车企都是战战兢兢的。"近日，小鹏汽车董事长兼CEO何小鹏向中国基金报等媒体表示， 中国汽车市场变化太快，一年前很难想到现在的情况，如今也很难想象一年后的局面。 对比2024年，2025年车企竞争格局再次骤变：造车新势力"一哥"从理想汽车变为零跑汽车，而国内车 企"一哥"比亚迪正遭遇上汽集团、吉利汽车等车企快速追赶。 车企竞争格局变化的背后，是国内汽车市场的竞争逻辑出现显著变化。2025年以"限时一口价"为代表的 价格战，从上半年愈演愈烈到下半年戛然而止。随后车企集体表态"反内卷"，要求开启"价值战"。 国内新能源汽车购置税补贴退坡将成为车企竞争更为残酷的新因素。岚图汽车董事长、党委书记卢放表 示："一旦走到这个时刻，燃油车和新能源汽车在某种程度上会迎来终极对决。" 车企"一哥"轮流坐庄？ 每个领域的"一哥"都会受到各方关注，但国内车企"一哥"的宝座在2025年难言稳固。 2025年上半年，比亚迪险守国内车企"一哥"宝座，汽车业务营业收入仅比上汽集团多81.70亿元。此 前，上汽集团常年稳坐国内车企"一哥"宝座，但202 ...

【导读】 车企在激烈厮杀中告别2025，未来竞争更残酷 中国基金报记者 邱德坤 "我觉得每一家车企都是战战兢兢的。"近日，小鹏汽车董事长兼CEO何小鹏向中国基金报等媒体表示，中国汽车市场变化太快，一年前很 难想到现在的情况，如今也很难想象一年后的局面。 对比2024年，2025年车企竞争格局再次骤变：造车新势力"一哥"从理想汽车变为零跑汽车，而国内车企"一哥"比亚迪正遭遇上汽集团、 吉利汽车等车企快速追赶。 车企竞争格局变化的背后，是国内汽车市场的竞争逻辑出现显著变化。2025年以"限时一口价"为代表的价格战，从上半年愈演愈烈到下半 年戛然而止。随后车企集体表态"反内卷"，要求开启"价值战"。 国内新能源汽车购置税补贴退坡将成为车企竞争更为残酷的新因素。岚图汽车董事长、党委书记卢放表示："一旦走到这个时刻，燃油车和 新能源汽车在某种程度上会迎来终极对决。" 车企"一哥"轮流坐庄？ 每个领域的"一哥"都会受到各方关注，但国内车企"一哥"的宝座在2025年难言稳固。 2025年上半年，比亚迪险守国内车企"一哥"宝座，汽车业务营业收入仅比上汽集团多81.70亿元。此前，上汽集团常年稳坐国内车企"一 哥"宝座，但20 ...

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 ： ◼ 本周合金价格走势震荡偏强，主要受到宏观与基本面双重作用影响。上周"反内卷"或使得市场交易情绪对低估值品种再度袭来，叠加合金端的供 应变动及煤焦板块对合金盘面的情绪冲击，使得价格走势偏强，但大厂对盘套保意愿显现，叠加需求短期偏弱迹象仍存，盘面高度或有压力 。 ◼ 宏观：国内：中央经济工作会议进一步明确了明年经济工作的方向和任务： ①传统稳增长领域，重新释放了诸多稳增长信号，超出市场预期 ②在 物价方面，在多个领域提到涉及物价或反内卷方面的工作，显示政策重视的态度；海外：美联储如期再降息25基点。 ◼ 微观：铁水产量继续走弱，对原料需求支撑偏弱，当前锰硅基本面矛盾继续累积，硅铁减产缓解前序压力，仍需注意炉料供应端生产节奏的变动。 ◼ 本周合金端，成本均表现坚挺，供应环比走弱，硅铁减产力度较大，使得市场交易供应预期收紧情绪较强，但上升力度有限，需关注盘面回升后利 润修复，或使得宁夏地区大厂生产节奏存在变动；锰硅端，锰矿需求维持，海外矿企1月报价环比抬升，港口锰矿价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Report's Core View - Expected boost has led to a rebound in steel prices [3] Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Macro - environment - Overseas: Interest rates were cut as scheduled in December, releasing liquidity [5][9] - Domestic: The Central Economic Work Conference re - emphasized "anti - involution", and state - owned enterprises were required to resist "involution - style" competition, creating a generally warm macro - environment. Policy expectations were reignited, and coking coal near the cost line rebounded rapidly [5][8] 2. Black Industry Chain - The industry is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Demand has entered the off - season, steel inventories are high, seasonal maintenance has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is difficult, suppressing the overall rebound height of steel prices. Negative feedback dominates the industrial logic [5][13] 3. Rebar (Thread Steel) 3.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3300 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract price was 3120 (+38) yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis was 180 (-8) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 1 (-21) yuan/ton [20] 3.2 Demand - New - home sales remained at a low level, indicating low market confidence. Second - hand home sales remained high, showing the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remained low [24] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data showed low supply and demand, and healthy inventory. The short - and long - process production and inventory data presented different trends [27][28] 3.4 Production Profit - Last week, the rebar spot profit was 159 (+13) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 197 (-33) yuan/ton. It is expected that after the Spring Festival, production will resume, and the main - contract profit will shrink [33] 4. Hot - rolled Coil 4.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3270 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract futures price was 3276 (+36) yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis was - 6 (-6) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 7 (-1) yuan/ton [38] 4.2 Demand - Demand from the home appliance and automobile industries was poor, and the peak season was not prosperous. After January 1st next year, new steel export regulations will be implemented, restricting "paid - for" exports. In the short term, there will be an increase in rush - to - export, resulting in a stronger near - term and weaker far - term price spread [39][40] 4.3 Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data showed high hot - rolled coil inventory, and production cuts were being made to reduce inventory [45][46] 4.4 Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was - 35 (+12) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 197 (-55) yuan/ton. It is expected that after the Spring Festival, production will resume, and the main - contract profit will shrink [51] 5. Variety Spread Structure - The report presented data on spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread, etc. over different time periods [53][54] 6. Variety Regional Difference - Data on regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, etc. were provided, including differences between cities like Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin [62][63][65] 7. Cold - rolled Coil and Medium - plate - Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of cold - rolled coil and medium - plate were presented, including seasonal data on total inventory, production, and apparent consumption [68]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者王兆寰 北京报道 近日，在中央经济工作会议结束后的一周里，监管层着实忙碌，一周两次对外发声，从传达学习会议精 神，到研究部署，最后到组织专家座谈听取资本市场"十五五"规划编制和2026年资本市场工作的意见建 议。 中国证监会主席吴清指出，证监会将持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革，稳步扩大制度型高水平对外开 放，持续提高资本市场制度包容性吸引力，更好服务经济高质量发展和中国式现代化大局。 南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，2026年深化资本市场改革 是"十五五"实体经济提质的关键抓手，对A股核心是"筑基赋能"。 田利辉指出，改革将聚焦"三提升"：提升市场稳定性，完善基础制度与监管机制，减少非理性波动；提 升包容性，推进注册制改革向纵深发展，让创新企业更便捷上市；提升吸引力，优化投资者结构，吸引 长期资金入市。 田利辉认为，短期以改革信号稳预期、降波动，中期通过制度优化提升标的质量、引入中长期资金，长 期将夯实市场韧性。 提高制度包容性吸引力 2025年12月召开的中央经济工作会议指出，做好2026年经济工作要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，纵深 ...