交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：今日关注美国5月非农就业、欧元区一季度GDP终值、欧央行官员密集讲 话。中美伦敦会谈开启，市场情绪乐观，美国5月消费者通胀预期全面下降，洛杉矶 动荡升级，中东局势紧张，银价上涨支撑金价震荡。沪金溢价维持至3元/克左右。 贸易谈判乐观，但避险需求仍存，金价仍将获得银价支撑。 2、基差：黄金期货774.72，现货772.01，基差-2.71，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 白银 1、基本面：中美伦敦会谈开启，银价继续大涨；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧 洲三大股指收盘小幅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the weak US non - farm payroll data but unexpected growth in employment wages have cooled the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, which has pressured precious metals. However, the LA riots caused by ICE's arrest of illegal immigrants and the short - term improvement in international trade situation have provided support for precious metals. The inflow of investment funds into the silver market has driven up silver prices, but the mid - term growth of the global economy and silver's industrial demand are still weak, so the purely capital - driven rise may not be sustainable. Gold's safe - haven demand has been greatly boosted, with increased volatility but a good mid - line upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - In the mid - term, Trump's equal - tariff measures in April triggered a global financial market tsunami and accelerated the restructuring of the global economic and trade system. Multiple safe - haven demands drove the gold price to soar. Although the gold price has corrected from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The factors driving the gold price up in the long and medium terms will continue to exist, but the short - term surge in the gold price and its high price - to - earnings ratio also mean significantly increased volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions. Traders with a short - position mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage trade [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The weak US non - farm payroll data and unexpected wage growth cooled the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, pressuring precious metals. The LA riots and short - term improvement in international trade situation supported precious metals. Investment funds flowed into the silver market, driving up silver prices, but the mid - term growth of the global economy and silver's industrial demand are weak. Gold's safe - haven demand was boosted, with increased volatility but a good mid - line upward trend [4]. - **Mid - term Market**: Trump's equal - tariff measures in April drove the gold price to soar. After a high - level correction, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price up will continue to exist, but the short - term surge and high price - to - earnings ratio lead to increased volatility. Investment suggestions are provided for different types of traders [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US California National Guard was deployed to LA to quell protests over the arrest of illegal immigrants, leading to conflicts with protesters. There are disputes between Trump and the California governor over this deployment [18]. - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that it is reviewing rare - earth related export license applications, and has approved a certain number of compliant applications and will continue to strengthen the approval work. Some temporary export licenses have been issued to rare - earth suppliers of certain US companies [18]. - US non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, with slow employment growth but steady wage increases. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has affected corporate planning, and the financial market has adjusted its bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts [19]. - The US has suspended the licenses of nuclear equipment suppliers to sell products to Chinese nuclear power plants [19]. - The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on more than 30 individuals and entities related to Iran for money - laundering through the global financial system [19].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on June 9, urging investors to manage risks and control positions as gold prices experienced a decline of approximately 1% on that day [1][2][3] - The exchange has issued risk warnings six times this year, with three occurring in April alone, reflecting significant market volatility during that month [2] - The global gold ETF saw a net outflow of 19.1 tons, valued at $18.3 billion in May, marking the first outflow since November 2024 [2][3] Group 2 - On June 9, both gold futures and spot prices fell by around 1%, with 13 out of 14 gold-themed ETFs also experiencing declines [3] - Despite the recent downturn, gold-themed ETFs have shown an overall increase of nearly 25% year-to-date, while gold stock ETFs have risen over 34% [3] - Central banks continue to show net inflows into gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking a continuous growth for seven months [3] Group 3 - Other precious metals like platinum and silver have gained momentum, with platinum prices surpassing $1,200 per ounce and silver reaching over $36 per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of 34% and over 25%, respectively [4] - The silver ETF in the U.S. has seen significant inflows, with a single-day increase of 2.2 million ounces in holdings [4] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices may indicate a broader trend, as investors seek more elastic alternatives to traditional safe-haven assets like gold [7] - The net long positions for both gold and silver have increased significantly, with gold net longs rising by 13,000 contracts to reach 130,000 contracts [7][8]

周一亚洲交易时段，美元指数稳居99.17高位，延续上周五的强劲走势。美国非农就业数据超出预期，给期待美联储降息的投资者泼了一盆冷 水。 **美元指数上周五收涨0.53%至99.20**，创下两周来最大单日涨幅。 与此同时，美国洛杉矶的大规模骚乱已进入第三天，特朗普部署2000名国民警卫队进驻洛杉矶，美防长甚至表示海军陆战队正"高度戒备"。** 这场美国内乱意外成为避险资产的临时推手**，黄金在亚市早盘小幅上涨至3317美元附近。 一份超预期的就业报告，一场突如其来的美国骚乱，全球外汇市场在避险与预期的角力中开启关键一周。 01 市场概览：非农引爆美元，黄金承压 上周五外汇市场经历剧烈波动。美国劳工部数据显示，**5月非农就业岗位增加13.9万个**，虽低于4月的14.7万，但超过预期的13万。 这份"**恰到好处**"的就业报告既显示劳动力市场略有降温，又证明经济韧性犹存，直接打击了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速调整押注：**交易员削减了2025年第三次降息的预期**，将首次降息时间推迟至9月。美债收益率应声飙升，10年 期美债收益率暴涨超10个基点至4.512%，为2010年来罕见涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - On June 6, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures market saw a significant increase, with the main contract rising nearly 4% and hitting a record high of 8,804 yuan/kg. The increase was driven by factors such as geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, growing industrial demand, and the undervaluation of silver relative to gold [3]. - The silver market remains uncertain. While geopolitical easing and a shift in Fed policy could curb price increases, long - term industrial demand from the new energy sector may support prices [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue a strong and volatile upward trend next Monday due to a phone call [7]. - Gold is in a short - term oscillatory pattern but is still bullish in the long run. It's advisable to buy on dips rather than chase the price [11][12]. - Iron ore is a strong black - series variety. Despite overvaluation risks due to weak reality, falling port inventories support the market, and a bullish and oscillatory view is appropriate [15][16]. - Glass needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy changes. Technically, it maintains a bullish and oscillatory view [17][18]. - Urea is expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term, with a daily production of about 205,600 tons and an 87.23% operating rate, and slow agricultural demand [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Silver Futures - **Price Movement**: On June 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose nearly 4% to a record high of 8,804 yuan/kg [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2025, increased industrial demand from the new energy sector, and the undervaluation of silver relative to gold [3]. - **Outlook**: Uncertainty exists. Short - term price increases may be curbed, but long - term industrial demand from new energy could support prices [4]. 3.2 Stock Index - **Market Outlook**: Expected to continue a strong and volatile upward trend next Monday due to a phone call [7]. 3.3 Gold - **Market Pattern**: Currently in a short - term oscillatory pattern, but bullish in the long run [12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy on dips rather than chase the price [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Despite overvaluation risks from weak reality, falling port inventories support the market, remaining a strong black - series variety [15][16]. - **Technical View**: A bullish and oscillatory view is appropriate as the support level was tested effectively today [15]. 3.5 Glass - **Market Condition**: Supply has no major cold - repair due to losses, high factory inventories, and weak downstream demand. It awaits real - estate stimulus or major policies [17][18]. - **Technical Outlook**: Maintains a bullish and oscillatory view with a high - closing positive line today [17]. 3.6 Urea - **Supply**: Domestic daily production is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23% [19]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand is slow, and downstream participation is limited [19]. - **Price Trend**: Expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term [19].

Group 1 - The gold market experienced increased volatility due to multiple factors, with spot gold prices dropping over 1% on Friday but still recording a weekly gain of 0.8%, indicating a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and a strengthening dollar [1] - The overall trend for the week was upward, driven by risk aversion, but prices fell sharply on Friday following stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data [1] - Spot gold closed at $3,316.13 per ounce on Friday, down 1.1%, while U.S. futures gold fell 0.8% to $3,346.60 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 139,000 non-farm jobs were added in May, exceeding market expectations of 130,000, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2% [2] - Analyst Edward Meir indicated that the data suggests the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, with financial markets anticipating the earliest cut in September and only two cuts by 2025 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased, putting pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, spot gold is at a critical area, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and prices near the middle band at $3,296.92, indicating short-term pressure [2] - A drop below the middle band could test the lower band at $3,171.53, while a rebound could challenge the upper band at $3,422.30 [2] - The 50-period moving average at $3,234.79 provides support, but the MACD indicator shows insufficient bullish momentum, with short-term direction dependent on the middle band [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand, with recent developments indicating a potential for further price increases in the coming years [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - On June 5, silver prices experienced a sharp increase, with London silver reaching $36.053 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [3]. - The announcement by the Trump administration to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to heightened speculation that similar measures may be applied to other metals, including silver, thus increasing its demand as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Silver futures saw a significant increase in long positions, with total holdings rising by $2.8 billion, the largest two-day increase in the past year [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Demand - The recent economic uncertainty, highlighted by a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, has led to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3][6]. - Industrial demand for silver remains strong, particularly in clean energy technologies, with the silver market facing a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3][6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Considerations - Analysts predict that the price gap between silver and gold may narrow from the current 27 percentage points to 10-15 percentage points over the next 1-2 years, driven by various economic factors [6][7]. - The current gold-silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, suggesting that silver may be undervalued relative to gold, which could attract investors and drive prices higher [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Silver is gaining attention and momentum, potentially overshadowing gold as a preferred investment asset due to its dual role as both a financial asset and an industrial raw material [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Thursday, spot silver surged by 4.5%, reaching above $36 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [2]. - Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by 42% due to the U.S.-led tariff wars and central banks' significant gold purchases, while silver has only risen by approximately 15%, indicating a lag [7]. - The recent spike in silver prices is narrowing this gap, with significant inflows into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), increasing holdings by 2.2 million ounces in a single day [8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Alexander Zumpfe from Heraeus Group noted that the current rally in silver is driven by technical momentum, improved fundamentals, and broader investor interest [4]. - Trend investors are reigniting their interest in silver, indicating a rotation from gold to silver [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver is experiencing a structural supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [9]. - Unlike gold, which relies solely on safe-haven demand, silver's structural shortage provides a solid foundation for price increases [10]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent macroeconomic changes, including a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, have led to a decline in bond yields, prompting traders to bet on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December [12]. - Lower interest rate environments typically benefit non-yielding precious metals, with silver often outperforming due to its higher price elasticity [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices may just be the beginning, as the combination of safe-haven demand, industrial shortages, and expectations of monetary easing historically leads to significant price impacts [14].

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong rally, with silver prices reaching a 13-year high and platinum hitting a two-year high, indicating investor enthusiasm for industrial precious metals [1] - As of Friday, spot silver continued its upward trend, having surged 4.5% the previous day, while platinum prices rose by 1.7% during the day, and gold also saw an increase [1] - The recent price increases are driven by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements, with strong physical silver demand in India and a recovery in platinum demand in China providing significant market support [1] Group 2 - Over the past 12 months, gold has risen over 40%, primarily supported by escalating global trade tensions and continued central bank purchases [1] - Although silver and platinum have year-to-date increases of approximately 19% and 13% respectively, they lag behind gold; however, their industrial properties are crucial drivers, with silver being a key material for solar panels and platinum widely used in internal combustion engines and catalytic converters [1] - Predictions indicate that both silver and platinum markets may face supply shortages this year [1] Group 3 - If silver can maintain a price above $35 per ounce, it may trigger increased retail investor interest; platinum ETF holdings have increased by over 3% since mid-May, indicating a return of funds to the market [1] - Silver ETFs have seen continuous inflows since February, with a nearly 8% increase in holdings [1] - Palladium prices also rose by 1.4% on Friday, influenced by market sentiment [1] Group 4 - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3,368.87 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.4%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index has slightly risen by 0.1% [2] - The market is focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, with an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims reinforcing expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The current precious metals rally reflects a blend of safe-haven demand and industrial recovery, with silver and platinum needing to maintain key price levels while monitoring ETF fund flows and economic data for sustainability of the upward trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in global risk aversion has led to a significant increase in the precious metals market, particularly gold and silver, with silver emerging as a new favorite among investors [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong and A-share markets have seen substantial gains in the gold and precious metals sector, with China Silver Group rising over 21% and several other companies hitting their daily price limits [2]. - As of the latest data, spot silver has reached over $36 per ounce, marking a 13-year high, while COMEX silver futures are reported at $36.19 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.08% [5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for silver is expected to reach record levels in 2024, contributing to a structural deficit in the silver market for the fourth consecutive year, driven by strong industrial demand, particularly in green energy sectors like solar power [8]. - The recent underperformance of U.S. economic data and the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have positively influenced the prices of silver and other industrially used precious metals [8]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Global geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Iran relations, have heightened the demand for safe-haven assets, further boosting precious metals [8]. - The recent escalation of trade tensions, particularly with the doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum by former President Trump, has raised concerns about potential tariffs on other key metals, impacting market sentiment [8]. Group 4: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that if U.S. non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations, it could strengthen market bets on a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a significant rise in precious metal prices [9]. - Forecasts suggest that silver prices could reach $40 by the end of this year or early 2026, with ongoing central bank purchases and robust safe-haven demand driving this trend [9].