1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated slightly upward, reaching a high of 20,270 yuan/ton during the week. As the traditional off - season deepens, downstream die - casting enterprises are on high - temperature holidays, dragging down orders in the recycled aluminum industry. New orders are limited, and with the accumulation of social inventory, off - season pressure will gradually emerge. However, due to cost support, the short - term price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [6]. - As of August 15, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses increased by 0.09 million tons to 11 million tons compared with the previous week, remaining at a high level. In August, the amount of waste generated at the terminal was lower than expected, and the supply of waste aluminum raw materials was limited. In the second week of August (August 4 - 10), domestic automobile sales were 378,000 units, a nearly 20% decrease from the previous week. The trade - in policy has outstanding effects, and the fourth batch of funds will be released as planned in October, which helps to stabilize consumer confidence and boost automobile consumption. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", automobile sales are expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.556 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45%, and the cumulative import was 10.122 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.88% [9][14]. - The refined - scrap price difference shows a fluctuating trend [18]. Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy has a small increase, and the price difference between ADC12 and A00 has converged [26]. - The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has weakened and shows certain seasonal patterns [31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has a small decline, while the monthly operating rate has increased [36]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in a loss - making state on average [38]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has decreased rapidly, while social inventory has been continuously accumulating. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [43][45]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, information on production and inventory is provided, including production volume and inventory distribution in different regions [48][50]. Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - In terms of terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has affected die - casting consumption. The production of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances, as well as relevant indicators such as automobile inventory warning index and PPI of auto parts manufacturing, are presented in the report [55][56].

Core Insights - JD.com reported a significant revenue increase of 22.4% year-on-year for Q2 2025, reaching 356.7 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 6 percentage points [1] - The company's Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was 7.4 billion yuan, also surpassing consensus estimates [1] - The growth was driven by the success of the trade-in policy, particularly in the electronics and home appliance categories, which saw a revenue increase of 23.4% [2][6] Retail Business Performance - JD's core retail business generated 310.1 billion yuan in revenue for Q2 2025, reflecting a 20.6% year-on-year growth, exceeding market expectations by approximately 5 percentage points [2] - Operating profit for the retail segment was 13.9 billion yuan, up from 10.1 billion yuan in the same quarter last year, with an operating profit margin of 4.5%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The daily necessities category maintained double-digit growth for six consecutive quarters, with a 16.4% year-on-year revenue increase [2][3] User Engagement and Growth - JD.com experienced over 40% year-on-year growth in quarterly active users and shopping frequency, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in active users [2][3] - The "618" shopping festival saw a more than 100% increase in the number of placing orders, with overall order volume exceeding 2.2 billion [3] New Business Developments - JD's new business, including food delivery, saw a remarkable revenue increase of 199% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [6] - The food delivery service achieved a daily order volume exceeding 25 million, covering 350 cities and involving over 150,000 quality dining establishments [6][7] - The launch of the "Seven Fresh Kitchen" platform aims to innovate the food delivery sector, with plans to establish 10,000 locations nationwide within three years [7] Supply Chain and Differentiation - JD's supply chain capabilities were highlighted as a key factor in achieving high-quality user experiences and operational efficiency, with retail gross margins increasing for 13 consecutive quarters [3][5] - The company is focusing on customized products and differentiated shopping experiences through its private label offerings and innovative packaging strategies [4][5]

Group 1 - The core categories of electronic products and home appliances are experiencing a recovery in growth, benefiting from the trade-in policy [1][3] - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 27.7 billion, 46 billion, and 52.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -42%, +66%, and +15% respectively [1] - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate [2] Group 2 - The company's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 4.5%, while the logistics operating profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.8% [2] - New business losses were higher than expected, primarily due to continued investments in the food delivery segment [2][3] - The company repurchased approximately 2.8% of its outstanding common shares as of December 31, 2024, with a remaining repurchase amount of 3.5 billion dollars [3]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy demonstrates resilience and vitality despite facing challenges from external pressures and extreme weather conditions, maintaining a steady development trend [1][6]. Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial output continued to grow, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors growing by 9.3% and 8.4% respectively [2]. - The total import and export volume in July increased by 6.7% year-on-year, reflecting a 1.5 percentage point acceleration compared to the previous month [2]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with goods retail sales increasing by 4% [2]. Consumer Trends - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted consumer behavior, with retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year growing by 5.0%, surpassing the previous year's growth by 1.3 percentage points [3]. - The demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment services has increased, contributing to sustained growth in both goods and service consumption [2][3]. Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, supported by policies promoting large-scale equipment updates [3]. - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2%, indicating robust investment activity despite some regional challenges [3]. Policy Outlook - The government is expected to implement new policies to address economic challenges, including expanding government investment and improving social security measures to boost consumer demand [6][7]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools is anticipated to support infrastructure investment growth, addressing capital shortages for project construction [8]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal spending growth slowed in the second quarter, with public fiscal expenditure increasing by only 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a need for enhanced fiscal expansion to meet economic growth targets [9]. - Recommendations include accelerating the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds to ensure effective investment and support economic stability [9].

Economic Overview - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The overall service retail sales remained stable, with a growth of 5.2% from January to July, consistent with the previous six months [1] - The combined retail sales of goods and services for the first seven months showed a preliminary growth of around 5% [1] Consumer Spending Insights - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The consumption expansion trend remains unchanged, supported by special actions to boost consumption [2] Retail Performance - In July, the retail sales of goods reached 34,276 billion yuan, growing by 4.0%, while catering revenue was 4,504 billion yuan, increasing by 1.1% [5] - The "trade-in" policy has positively impacted sales, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances (28.7%), cultural and office supplies (13.8%), furniture (20.6%), and communication equipment (14.9%) [5] - Online retail sales for the first seven months totaled 86,835 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [5] Service Consumption Trends - July saw a strong increase in service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism, information services, and digital entertainment [8] - The summer tourism season has led to a 5.5% increase in the production index of transportation, storage, and postal services [9] - The popularity of sports events has significantly boosted local economies, with ticket sales driving related sectors such as dining, transportation, and accommodation [9] Emerging Consumption Patterns - New consumption trends are emerging, with a notable increase in demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment products, reflected in the growth of retail sales in these categories [6] - The search volume for leisure activities has surged, indicating a growing interest in experiences such as beauty services and indoor entertainment [10] - The rise of new consumption modes, including personalized and diversified spending, is becoming more prominent [12] Future Outlook - The service consumption sector is expected to continue growing, with the proportion of service consumption in total consumption increasing [12] - As GDP per capita approaches 1.5 million USD, a shift from goods to service consumption is anticipated, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [11]

Economic Performance - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.38%[4] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.2%, indicating its core support role in the economy[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.63% in July[4] Sector Analysis - 35 out of 41 industrial categories reported growth, achieving a growth coverage of 85.4%[4] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase, with added value growing by 9.3%, led by integrated circuit manufacturing at 26.9%[4] - Real estate development investment from January to July was 53,580 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, marking a historical low[4] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 38.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%[5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in home appliances (+28.7%) and communication equipment (+14.9%), showed strong growth[5] - Service retail sales from January to July increased by 5.2%, driven by summer tourism and sports events[5] Future Outlook - The economic growth rate in the third quarter is expected to be lower than in the second quarter, primarily due to the real estate sector's challenges[5] - Despite potential slowdowns, achieving the annual economic growth target of 5% remains feasible due to ongoing export support and consumption policies[5] - Risks include the possibility of domestic demand recovery being slower than anticipated[5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - JD Group's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of 335.5 billion yuan [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was 7.4 billion yuan, a decline of 49% year-on-year, but also better than the expected 5.35 billion yuan [5] - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 27.7 billion, 46 billion, and 52.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -42%, +66%, and +15% [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue from product sales grew by 20.7% year-on-year, with core electronics and home appliances increasing by 23.4% [5] - Service revenue rose by 29.1%, driven by a 21.7% increase in platform and advertising services due to user traffic growth [5] - The retail operating profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 4.5%, while logistics operating profit margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.8% [5] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is benefiting from the "trade-in" policy for electronics and home appliances, which has significantly improved core business performance [4] - Continued investment in the food delivery business is expected to enhance user engagement and cross-purchase rates, contributing to long-term growth [6] - JD Group's share buyback program has repurchased approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares, with a remaining buyback amount of 3.5 billion USD [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2025, the projected revenue is 1,313.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [7] - The projected diluted EPS for 2025 is 8.7 yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.7 times [7] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 15.5% for the coming years [7]

智通财经APP获悉，8月15日，崔东树发文称，2025年7月汽车生产251万台，同比增8%；新能源汽车生产118万台，同比增17%，渗透率47%；燃油车生产 133万台，同比增2%。2025年1-7月汽车生产1808万台，同比增11%；新能源汽车生产805万台，同比增33%，渗透率45%；燃油车生产1003万台，同比降 3%。 2025年国家加紧实施以旧换新政策，生产需求持续增长，就业物价总体稳定，新能源车强势增长，高质量发展取得新成效。2025年7月份，社会消费品零 售总额38780亿元，同比增长3.7%。其中，汽车消费额3849亿元，同比降2%；除汽车以外的消费品零售额34931亿元，增长4.3%。1—7月份，社会消费品 零售总额284238亿元，增长4.8%。其中，汽车消费额27224亿元，同比增0.4%；除汽车以外的消费品零售额257014亿元，增长5.3%。 随着车市以旧换新补贴政策，引爆近期车市,效果特别显著，我们的国内车市零售量增长年度预期也需要从2%调高到6%了。虽然上半年增速11%，但下半 年逐步进入减速周期。期待未来能有长效的强力接续政策，减免购车人员个税、推动新能源车下乡、优化C7经济型 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The overall service market sales remained stable, with a 5.2% increase in service retail sales from January to July, consistent with the previous six months [2] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52% in the first half of the year, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The "old-for-new" policy and the consumption upgrade of certain goods showed positive growth, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 28.7% year-on-year in July [5] - Online retail sales reached 86.835 billion yuan, growing by 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [5] - The demand for cultural, sports, and entertainment products has expanded, with retail sales of sports and entertainment goods increasing by 13.7% and jewelry by 8.2% in July [5] Group 3: Service Consumption Growth - The summer season saw a strong increase in service consumption, particularly in tourism and entertainment, with transportation and postal services production index rising by 5.5% year-on-year [6] - The "ticket economy" has emerged, driven by sports events, significantly boosting local consumption in areas like dining, transportation, and accommodation [7] - New service retail sectors, such as indoor surfing and themed events, have seen substantial growth, with search volumes for related services increasing significantly [8] Group 4: Future Consumption Trends - As of 2024, the proportion of residents' per capita service consumption expenditure is expected to reach 46.1%, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed countries [9] - The service sector's contribution to GDP is projected to increase, with the average value added of the service industry in China being 54.6% over the past decade, suggesting room for further growth [9] - Emerging consumption patterns, including personalized and diversified consumption, are gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [9]

【环球时报报道 记者 倪浩 杨舒宇】12日，个人消费贷贴息政策的细则得以明确。随着《个人消费贷款 财政贴息政策实施方案》和《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》公布，中国提振消费、扩大内需 的又一次"国补"亮相，与"以旧换新"等政策形成"组合拳"，进一步推动国内消费拉动国民经济。 消费贷款领域的又一次"国补" 8月12日，财政部联合商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局等相关部门印发了《个人消费贷款财政贴 息政策实施方案》和《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》，通过财政和金融的联动，支持促消 费、扩内需。 "对居民个人消费贷款和消费领域的服务业经营主体贷款实施贴息政策，这是中央层面首次实施，所以 有媒体朋友也称之为消费贷款领域的又一次'国补'，这可以说是非常形象的，这也充分体现了中国政府 对扩大消费的重视程度。"财政部副部长廖岷13日出席国新办发布会时介绍说，（贴息政策）目的就是 要通过进一步强化财政和金融协同，撬动更多信贷资金精准投向消费领域，降低居民和经营主体的信贷 成本，在保障和改善民生的同时，通过提振消费畅通经济循环。 根据规定，居民个人消费贷贴息范围包括单笔5万元以下消费，以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽 ...