期货热点追踪 市场传言满天飞，多晶硅期货时隔一周再度涨停！背后的导火索是什么？上涨行情还能走多远？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures contract 2408 closed up by 0.66%, reaching 507.00 RMB per barrel [1] - The Shanghai gold futures market saw a decline, with night trading down by 0.40% [1] - The Shanghai silver futures market experienced an increase, with night trading up by 0.67% [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - On July 3, coking coal rose over 3%, iron ore, polysilicon, and coke increased over 2%, while silver, SC crude oil, glass, hot-rolled steel, rebar, live pigs, palm oil, and high-sulfur fuel oil rose over 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1394.77 points, up 11.59 points or 0.84% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1933.74 points, up 16.06 points or 0.84% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Black Building Materials and Polysilicon - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, boosting previously oversupplied products like black building materials and polysilicon [2] - Coking coal's main contract rose by 3.76%, with iron ore, polysilicon, and coke main contracts increasing over 2% [2] - Market rumors about a production limit in Tangshan from July 4-15, reducing sintering machine output by 30%, have also supported the market [2] Group 3: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - After a previous day of limit-up, polysilicon's main contract saw a more moderate increase of 2.14%, indicating a high-level fluctuation [3] - Weak demand in the photovoltaic sector is pressuring downstream battery manufacturers, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude [3] - There is an expectation of slight supply growth in silicon materials due to the resumption of production in some upstream enterprises [3] Group 4: Rubber and Jujube Market Trends - The 20th rubber and jujube both fell over 1%, with rubber demand remaining weak due to trade war impacts [4] - Supply conditions for rubber are expected to normalize as the rainy season in Southeast Asia ends, with no significant drought reported [4] - Jujube prices fluctuated significantly, with high inventories from the previous season creating a complex supply-demand dynamic [4]

午盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，多晶硅封涨停板，涨幅6.99%，玻璃涨超6%，工业硅、氧化铝 涨超4%，焦煤、硅铁、纯碱、碳酸锂、焦炭、生猪、烧碱涨超3%。跌幅方面，玉米、鸡蛋跌近1%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend on June 30, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rising. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased compared to the previous Friday [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal futures were affected by various factors such as production, inventory, and policies. The prices of both showed a downward trend on June 30 [2][3]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar was influenced by factors such as the expected decline in sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the adjustment of domestic spot prices, showing a volatile trend [4]. - The price of rubber was affected by technical factors and showed a volatile adjustment. The sales volume of the EU passenger car market in May 2025 increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales volume in the first five months decreased [5]. - The price of soybean meal was affected by factors such as US inventory data and domestic supply and demand. The domestic soybean meal market was in a weak and volatile state [7]. - The price of live hogs was affected by factors such as weak consumer demand and increasing supply, and the upward space of the futures market was limited [7]. - The price of palm oil was in a volatile stage, and the export volume of Malaysia in June increased year - on - year [8]. - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the supply and demand of the copper market. There was uncertainty in the market [8]. - The price of iron ore showed a volatile upward trend on June 30, with an increase in supply and demand [9]. - The price of asphalt showed a volatile upward trend on June 30, but the demand was still weak [9]. - The price of cotton showed a certain change, and the inventory decreased [9]. - The price of logs was in a volatile state, and the demand was weak [10]. - The price of steel was under pressure due to the increase in supply and weak demand, and it continued to fluctuate [12]. - The price of alumina was affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the decline in spot prices may gradually narrow [12]. - The price of Shanghai aluminum was affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals, and it may be under mild pressure [13]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On June 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.59% to 3444.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% to 10465.12 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.35% to 2153.01 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1486.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.2 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3936.08, a rise of 14.32 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On June 30, the weighted index of coke closed at 1408.45, a decrease of 6.2. The weighted index of coking coal closed at 832.7 yuan, a decrease of 9.4. The supply of carbon elements was still abundant, and the downstream iron - making in the off - season did not decline. For coking coal, the policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the inventory continued to decline [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected decline in sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the increase in domestic spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract showed a volatile trend. It closed slightly higher during the day and slightly lower at night [4]. Rubber - Due to short - term over - increase, the Shanghai rubber showed a volatile adjustment on June 30. The sales volume of the EU passenger car market in May 2025 increased by 1.6% year - on - year, but the cumulative sales volume in the first five months decreased by 0.6%. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first five months increased by 14.3% year - on - year [5]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean inventory as of June 1 was higher than expected, which put pressure on the near - term contracts. In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal was large, and the demand was limited, so the price was in a weak and volatile state [7]. Live Hogs - On June 30, the live - hog futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The consumer demand was weak, and the supply of commodity pigs was expected to increase, so the upward space of the futures market was limited [7]. Palm Oil - On June 30, the palm oil was in a volatile stage, and the K - line closed with a lower shadow. The export volume of Malaysia from June 1 - 30 increased by 4.52% compared to the previous month [8]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the supply and demand of the copper market. There was uncertainty in the market. If the tariff negotiation results were good, the copper price was expected to rise; otherwise, it may fall [8]. Iron Ore - On June 30, the iron - ore 2509 contract closed up 0.21% at 715.5 yuan. The supply and demand both increased, and the short - term trend was volatile [9]. Asphalt - On June 30, the asphalt 2509 contract closed up 0.14% at 3564 yuan. The processing profit improved slightly, but the demand was still weak, and the short - term price was volatile [9]. Cotton - The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13730 yuan/ton on June 30. The cotton inventory decreased by 29 contracts [9]. Logs - The log 2509 contract showed a volatile trend on June 30. The demand was weak, and the inventory in ports increased slightly [10]. Steel - On June 30, the rb2510 contract closed at 2997 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton. The supply of steel increased, the demand was weak, and the price continued to fluctuate [12]. Alumina - On June 30, the ao2509 contract closed at 2985 yuan/ton. The supply was loose, the demand was weak, and the decline in spot prices may gradually narrow [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On June 30, the al2508 contract closed at 20580 yuan/ton. Affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals, the price may be under mild pressure [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that domestic aluminum inventory has slightly increased, leading to a relatively stable aluminum price despite a decrease in short positions as the delivery month approaches [1] - As of the latest data, domestic aluminum ingot inventory reached 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous week, while aluminum rod inventory also rose by 5,000 tons to 148,000 tons [1] - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,590 yuan/ton, with a trading range expected between 20,300 and 20,800 yuan/ton in the short term [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai lead index rose by 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, with total open interest at 82,400 contracts [1] - LME lead inventory stands at 273,400 tons, with a cancellation stock of 70,700 tons, indicating a strong market for lead despite weak domestic consumption [1] - The overall supply of primary lead remains high while recycled lead supply is tight, leading to a recovery in lead-acid battery prices and improved purchasing from downstream sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The night futures market opened with declines in coking coal, soda ash, and coke, while asphalt and crude oil saw increases [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Coking coal fell by over 2% [1] - Soda ash and coke both dropped by over 1% [1] - Other commodities such as caustic soda and PVC also experienced declines [1] Group 2: Price Increases - Asphalt and crude oil prices increased during the night session [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The zinc market maintains a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. Although social inventory is at a low level, the trend of inventory accumulation during the off - season has not been confirmed. The SHFE zinc is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the 22,000 - yuan mark turning into a resistance level [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2507, it opened at 22,150 yuan/ton, closed at 22,175 yuan/ton, with the highest at 22,215 yuan/ton, and the lowest at 22,025 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan, a 0.43% increase, and the holding volume decreased by 13,166 to 38,573 lots. For SHFE zinc 2508 (the main contract), it opened at 21,975 yuan/ton, closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, with the highest at 22,095 yuan/ton, and the lowest at 21,860 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan, a 0.57% increase, with reduced volume and increased positions, and the holding volume increased by 8,395 to 129,865 lots. For SHFE zinc 2509, it opened at 21,905 yuan/ton, closed at 21,945 yuan/ton, with the highest at 21,995 yuan/ton, and the lowest at 21,775 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, a 0.69% increase, and the holding volume increased by 3,349 to 61,109 lots [7] - **Market Situation**: The SHFE zinc traded within a range. The 0 - 3 spread was C20.17, the SHFE - LME ratio was 8.25, and the ratio excluding exchange was 1.16. The spot import loss was 875.84 yuan, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. The import window remained deeply closed, the LME inventory continued to be below 130,000 tons, and China's import volume in June was expected to decline month - on - month. The mine supply was abundant, the imported zinc concentrate TC increased slightly, and the domestic TC remained flat at 3,600 yuan/ton. The smelting end was expected to have an incremental output, while the operating rates in the downstream primary consumption sectors were all lower than the same period in previous years. The construction of engineering projects and the home appliance industry were both weak, and the galvanizing production plan was reduced [7] 2. Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On June 25, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,205 - 22,295 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was between 22,135 - 22,225 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 40 - 50 yuan/ton to the average price, and there was no quote against the market price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a premium of 140 - 150 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,185 - 22,245 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract and a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The 0 zinc ingot was mainly traded between 22,060 - 22,180 yuan/ton, and the 1 zinc ingot was traded between 21,940 - 22,030 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc was generally quoted at a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, and the Tianjin market was at a discount of about 60 yuan/ton compared with the Shanghai market [8][9] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,090 - 22,185 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a premium of 180 - 210 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions by SMM, and the LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13]

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures contract 2408 closed down by 9.27%, settling at 502.30 RMB per barrel [1] - The night session for Shanghai gold futures also saw a decline of 1.25% [1] - Shanghai silver futures experienced a decrease of 1.06% during the night session [1]

夜盘期货开盘，纸浆跌逾1%，甲醇、燃油、不锈钢、液化石油等下跌；焦煤、沪锌等上涨。 ...