Core Insights - The "Guzi" economy, driven by anime IPs, is reshaping offline consumption ecosystems, attracting young consumers and revitalizing commercial areas [1][2][3] - By 2029, the market size of China's "Guzi economy" is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan, becoming a new driver for regional consumption and urban renewal [1][2] - The appeal of "Guzi" products lies not in their functional attributes but in their emotional and cultural significance, resonating with the Z generation's desire for identity and community [2][3] Industry Trends - Recent consumer events have highlighted the growing trend of "Guzi" activities, with significant sales figures reported, such as over 300 million yuan in sales of related products from the animated film "Nezha 2" within a month [2] - Major cities are witnessing a surge in "Guzi" pop-up events and stores, with long queues and rapid sell-outs becoming commonplace [2][3] - The high engagement of cultural consumption is transforming the operational logic of offline shopping districts, with increased foot traffic reported in locations featuring "Guzi" stores [2][3] Market Dynamics - The "Guzi economy" is expanding into lower-tier cities, with events like anime conventions stimulating local consumption [3] - Brands are leveraging limited releases and collaborations to create a sense of novelty, enhancing customer engagement and extending their stay in stores [3] - Local governments are increasingly linking cultural resources with IPs to achieve dual goals of cultural revitalization and consumption transformation [3] Challenges and Future Directions - Some "Guzi" stores face challenges due to over-reliance on single IPs and lack of content updates, leading to a decline in foot traffic post-peak [4] - Issues such as scalping and counterfeit products are undermining consumer trust, indicating a need for sustainable development in the "Guzi economy" [4] - To unlock the long-term value of the "Guzi economy," there is a need for cities and businesses to shift from merely chasing trends to building platforms that enhance local cultural identity and provide immersive consumer experiences [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of a new player in the trendy toy market, specifically the launch of the "DearNikki" brand by Paper Games, which has quickly gained traction in the market [1][2] - The "谷子经济" (Guzi Economy) is projected to experience significant growth, with the market size expected to reach 1.689 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 40% [2] - The emotional connection and engagement of female gamers with their favorite IPs are highlighted as key drivers for the success of trendy toys, particularly in the context of the "DearNikki" brand [10][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The "叠纸心意" flagship store topped the "618天猫潮玩抢先成交榜" (618 Tmall Trendy Toy Pre-sale Ranking) ahead of established brands like Pop Mart and miHoYo [1] - The "DearNikki" brand launched on June 1, with over 70,000 blind boxes sold, generating a transaction volume exceeding 5.53 million yuan [1] Brand Strategy - "DearNikki" focuses on female consumers, leveraging the emotional resonance of the "暖暖" IP, which allows for a unique approach to trendy toys by emphasizing emotional connection over traditional design aesthetics [3][6] - The brand's strategy includes a diverse range of products, with plans to expand into various categories such as model toys, anime merchandise, and tabletop games [3] Consumer Engagement - The emotional investment of players in the "暖暖" character creates a strong community, enhancing the appeal of the blind boxes as a means of emotional connection [6][10] - The success of the "DearNikki" blind boxes indicates a robust market for female-oriented trendy toys, with significant purchasing power demonstrated during the 618 sales event [8][10] Industry Trends - The article notes a shift towards self-owned IP models in the trendy toy market, which allows for deeper emotional connections and brand loyalty compared to traditional licensing models [15] - The potential for the trendy toy sector to become a secondary revenue stream for female-oriented mobile games is discussed, with the "谷子经济" serving as a catalyst for this growth [7][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new consumption trends driven by youth, brand value, and technology, indicating a shift towards a more personalized and innovative market landscape [1][4] Section Summaries New Consumption - The rise of brand value is crucial in tapping into the young consumer demographic, which is becoming increasingly influential in the market [4][5] Gold Consumption - Gold consumption is showing significant structural differentiation, with rising demand for gold as a safe-haven asset driving prices higher. The introduction of traditional gold and small-weight gold items is leading the new trend [5][10] - Young consumers aged 18 to 34 account for over one-third of gold jewelry sales, prompting brands to innovate in design and product offerings to cater to this demographic [10] Trendy Toys Consumption - The trendy toy market is supported by three main drivers: the rising purchasing power of Generation Z, accelerated IP commercialization, and technological innovation. The market is expected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, with a CAGR of 33% from 2015 to 2021 [11][14] - The "Guzi economy," which refers to merchandise derived from various IPs, is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size of 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 40.63% year-on-year increase [14] Outdoor Consumption - The outdoor sports market is expanding rapidly, with retail sales projected to reach 271.1 billion yuan in 2023. The penetration rate of outdoor activities in China is still low compared to over 50% in other countries, indicating significant growth potential [20] - Key trends include the rise of "light outdoor" products, increased popularity of trail running, and a growing interest in cycling and pet-friendly outdoor activities [20] Technology Consumption - The integration of AI in consumer products is transitioning from exploration to large-scale commercialization, with humanoid robots and smart home devices becoming core growth areas. The report anticipates that 2025 will mark a significant year for humanoid robot production [25] - The development of smart home technology is evolving from individual products to comprehensive ecosystem solutions, enhancing consumer experience and engagement [25]

Group 1: Market and Performance Review - The light industry and textile apparel sectors have outperformed the CSI 300 index, with textile apparel rising by 2.05% and light industry by 2.43% as of June 24, 2025 [21][22] - In Q1 2025, the light industry saw a revenue decline of 0.78% year-on-year, while the textile apparel sector experienced a 13.33% decline in revenue [25][29] - The light industry’s net profit decreased by 18.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while the textile apparel sector's net profit fell by 5.56% [25][29] Group 2: Home and Electric Two-Wheeler Industries - The home and electric two-wheeler sectors are expected to benefit from the deepening of the old-for-new policy, which is anticipated to improve demand and sales [37][44] - In the first five months of 2025, the retail sales of furniture increased by 21.40% year-on-year, significantly boosted by the old-for-new policy [43][44] - The electric two-wheeler industry faced challenges, with a projected 10.55% decline in sales for 2024, but the old-for-new policy is expected to support sales recovery [59][65] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The "谷子" economy, driven by Z generation consumers who value emotional and self-satisfying purchases, is projected to reach a market size of 1,689 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 40.63% year-on-year [7][79] - The pet food market is expected to grow to 3,002 billion yuan by 2024, with a significant increase in consumer preference for domestic brands [97][105] - The sanitary products market is also evolving, with non-leading domestic brands showing potential for growth due to the rise of e-commerce and consumer preferences for single products [7][105]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of new consumption trends in the market, highlighting investment opportunities in sectors such as electric two-wheelers, pet economy, and personal care products, driven by changing consumer preferences and product innovation [2][4]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of New Consumption - New consumption is defined as investment opportunities driven by product or channel innovation, moving away from traditional reliance on cyclical factors like real estate and liquor sales [5]. - The focus of new consumption is on personalized consumer needs, such as emotional and self-satisfying consumption, which have gained traction among younger demographics [5][10]. - The resurgence of new consumption is attributed to a shift in market perception, where previously overlooked sectors are now receiving attention due to their potential for growth [6][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The current consumption market is characterized by a recovery from previous underperformance, with funds reallocating towards consumer stocks that are product-driven [7][8]. - Investment strategies have shifted from top-down cyclical analysis to a more granular bottom-up approach, focusing on individual product performance and innovation [9][17]. - The article emphasizes the importance of product iteration and consumer engagement as key factors for maintaining competitive advantage in the new consumption landscape [11][15]. Group 3: Emerging Trends and Opportunities - Key emerging trends include the rise of niche markets such as health supplements, beauty products, and innovative consumer goods, which are expected to continue growing [15][18]. - The article notes that traditional sectors like food and beverage still hold potential, particularly through structural changes and new product introductions [16]. - The investment landscape is evolving, with a focus on identifying high-growth single products that can deliver substantial returns, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards quality and innovation [18][19].

Group 1 - Key Point 1: 基石药业-B (02616) rose over 5% after its drug for lung cancer,舒格利单抗, received long-term survival data recognition in The Lancet Oncology, reinforcing its position as a first-line treatment in Europe [2] - Key Point 2: 海昌海洋公园 (02255) increased by over 4% as a major shareholder, 祥源控股, is set to acquire a 38.6% stake for HKD 22.95 billion, potentially alleviating liquidity pressures [2] - Key Point 3: 冠忠巴士 (00306) surged 27% with a projected 143% increase in annual pre-tax profit to HKD 165 million, driven by revenue growth, reduced fuel costs, and autonomous driving licenses [2] Group 2 - Key Point 1: 东方表行 (00398) fell over 5% due to a 5.2% decline in revenue and a 20% drop in net profit, attributed to weak luxury goods demand amid geopolitical conflicts and interest rate fluctuations [2] - Key Point 2: 北森控股 (09669) plummeted over 17% as its adjusted annual EBITDA was only HKD 28.9 million, with Everbright Securities lowering revenue forecasts by 10%-15% due to growth challenges [3] - Key Point 3: 顺丰控股 (06936) rose over 6% to a new high, with May express delivery revenue increasing by 13.4%, and the scaling of unmanned delivery vehicles potentially opening up future profit opportunities [3] Group 3 - Key Point 1: 中国中免 (01880) increased by over 5% as it accelerates the expansion of its duty-free stores, with 4 already opened and 9 more in preparation, benefiting from favorable policies [3] - Key Point 2: 华虹半导体 (01347) rose over 7% with a capacity utilization rate of 102.7%, and Tianfeng Securities optimistic about future contributions of USD 1.28 billion from its 9th factory [3] - Key Point 3: 网龙 (00777) increased over 3% after showcasing AI digital human presentation technology at a UN conference, launching the "EDA Education Metaverse" strategy, which catalyzed a revaluation of AI [4]

Company Overview - The company, established in 2014, focuses on building block character toys, with Ultraman as its core licensed IP, and is continuously expanding its IP product matrix [1] - The company has a stable shareholding structure with a high proportion of shares held by the founder, and the management team is experienced and stable due to deep equity incentives [1] - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth and has entered an upward trajectory in profitability [1] Industry Insights - The "Guzi Economy," which refers to the secondary economy surrounding two-dimensional culture, is thriving, driven by the demand for emotional consumption and the expansion of quality IPs [1] - The building block character toy market has seen significant growth, with the market size increasing from 13.2 billion to 27.8 billion from 2019 to 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate of 20.5% [1] - The building block character toy sector is highly concentrated, with the company ranked first in China and third globally [1] Core Competitiveness - The company has a rich IP matrix, significant supply chain scale effects, and excellent channel marketing capabilities [2] - The company enhances the building block system by integrating the advantages of character toys and building block gameplay, providing new choices for consumers [2] - The product design, research and development, and production systems are standardized, with high interchangeability of components [2] - The company is expanding its offline presence while leveraging online content marketing to enhance brand influence through the BFC event system [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit from 1.188 billion to 2.663 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 396.2%, 61.0%, and 39.3% respectively [2] - The company is rated as "Buy" due to its leading position in the market, rich IP matrix, rapid SKU iteration, and efficient channel management [2]

Core Insights - The box office of "Nezha 2" has officially surpassed 15.9 billion RMB, making it the highest-grossing film in Chinese history and the fifth globally [1] - The market is shifting away from mythological themes, with only 7 out of 127 animated films registered for 2024 being based on classic myths, indicating a move towards more sustainable development paths [1] - Youth-oriented IPs are emerging as new growth engines, with several headlining domestic animation projects being registered and developed [1] Industry Trends - The commercial potential of domestic animation IPs is being reassessed, with the "Nezha" series generating hundreds of billions in derivative sales, and the possibility of reaching over a thousand billion in the future [2] - The upcoming summer season (June 1 to August 31) will test the effectiveness of the transformation of domestic animation IPs, with 16 new animated films scheduled for release [2] - The industry is witnessing a diversification of themes, moving away from mythological narratives to youth IPs and new interpretations of traditional culture [2] Market Dynamics - The summer release schedule includes 8 domestic animated films and 8 imported films, indicating a balanced competition [4][6] - The "Nezha" franchise has proven the longevity of low-age-targeted national IPs, with a cumulative box office exceeding 495 million RMB across six films [6][7] - The collaboration between state-owned enterprises and market-oriented teams is enhancing the commercial operation of IPs, covering the entire industry chain [7] IP Development Strategies - Classic children's literature IPs are exploring new cross-industry resource integration models, with "Pipilu and Luxixi" facing challenges in box office conversion despite strong backing [9] - Platforms are shifting from behind-the-scenes capital to leading creative and promotional efforts, as seen with "Art Academy 1994" and "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" [9] - The "Liao Zhai: Lan Ruo Temple" is highly anticipated, with significant pre-release interest, indicating strong market potential [12] Derivative Product Strategies - The development of derivative products for major animation IPs is becoming more proactive, with various collaborations and marketing events planned [18][20] - The "Liao Zhai: Lan Ruo Temple" and "Ro Xiao Hei War Record 2" are set to launch multiple derivative products, reflecting the growing market for IP-related merchandise [20][22] - The trend of localizing Japanese IPs for the Chinese market is evolving, with domestic companies gaining more control over design and pricing [22] Conclusion - The summer animation film season is characterized by diverse themes, differentiated IPs, and advanced business models, marking a critical transformation period for the Chinese animation industry [24] - The potential for a non-mythological animated film to reach a 1 billion RMB box office is being closely monitored, alongside the growth of the derivative product market [24]

Company Overview - The report rates the company as "Buy" for the first time, indicating a positive outlook for investment [5] - The company, Blok, is a leading player in the building block toy sector, with significant growth potential [1] - Founded in 2014, Blok focuses on building block toys, with Ultraman as its core licensed IP, and is expanding its IP product matrix [1][14] Industry Insights - The "Guzi Economy," which encompasses the secondary economy around anime, games, and comics, is experiencing robust growth, providing ample market opportunities [2] - The building block toy market has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.5%, growing from 13.2 billion RMB in 2019 to 27.8 billion RMB in 2023 [2] Core Competitiveness - Blok's competitive edge lies in its rich IP matrix, significant supply chain scale effects, and excellent channel marketing strategies [3] - The company has a diverse product matrix that caters to a wide age range, with rapid iteration speed and a standardized supply chain [3][17] - Blok's marketing strategy is driven by content, enhancing brand influence through a robust online and offline sales network [3][16] Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.188 billion RMB, 1.913 billion RMB, and 2.663 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 396.2%, 61.0%, and 39.3% respectively [4] - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 2.241 billion RMB in 2024 and 4.414 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 155.6% and 97.0% [4][28]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in the Hong Kong stock market for trendy toy companies reflects a significant transformation in the Chinese consumer market, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus achieving remarkable stock price increases and market capitalizations [1][2]. Group 1: IP Economy - The success of IP products in the consumer recovery is attributed to their ability to create "emotional social connections," exemplified by Pop Mart's LABUBU series, which has transformed toys into expressions of individuality for Generation Z [1][2]. - Pop Mart's IP operations have created a unique "nuclear fusion effect," with its Molly series generating related products and even operating a theme park independently of any film IP support [2]. Group 2: Guzi Economy - The rapid rise of trendy toy stocks is driven by the "Guzi economy," which encompasses the peripheral consumer market surrounding anime and game IPs, becoming a growth engine for toy companies [3]. - Collaborations, such as Miniso's partnership with "Jujutsu Kaisen," have led to significant sales, while Blokus has increased its overseas revenue share by tying up with international IPs [3]. - The shift in consumer demographics, particularly among the 18-35 age group, is driving a surge in "self-indulgent consumption," with the market expected to grow significantly by 2024 [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Opportunities and Challenges - The trendy toy market in China is still in its early development stage, with considerable room for growth compared to mature markets like Japan and the U.S. [5]. - Companies are exploring diversified revenue models beyond traditional retail, including online live streaming and NFT initiatives, which could enhance user engagement and create new growth points [5][6]. - Despite the optimistic outlook, the rapid expansion of the industry poses risks, such as the influx of new companies and potential regulatory challenges [5]. Group 4: Cultural Consumption Trends - The journey of Pop Mart symbolizes the shift in the Chinese consumer market from material satisfaction to spiritual consumption, with trendy toys becoming cultural symbols for a generation [7]. - Companies that can consistently create emotional resonance and build IP ecosystems are likely to thrive in the golden age of the trendy toy economy [7].