进入2026年，黄金价格继续"狂飙"。2026年1月底，国际现货金价突破5500美元/盎司关口，尽管后续经历价格急坠，但很快又回升至每盎司5000美元上 方。 南都大数据研究院梳理发现，过去10年，黄金上演了一场出人意料的逆袭。从不足1100美元的低位回暖企稳，到"过山车"般的波动上涨行情，再到屡屡刷 新历史纪录的"大牛市"，国际金价走出了一条清晰的上升曲线，十年间涨幅超300%。不少专业机构指出，黄金正逐渐成为全球资产配置的核心之一。 回暖企稳期： 结束三年连跌，年度均价小幅上涨 2016年上半年，受英国"脱欧"公投等因素影响，国际金价结束三年连跌的低迷，从年初的不足1100美元/盎司到年中一度突破1300美元/盎司大关。尽管下 半年特朗普赢得美国总统大选、美联储加息担忧等因素叠加，黄金市场快速回落，但2016年金价全年涨幅仍接近8%。 受全球公共卫生危机、各国货币政策宽松等多种因素的影响，2020年的黄金价格在小幅震荡中整体保持上涨趋势，全年涨幅超25%。据报道，同一时期我 国国内金价与国际金价出现"倒挂"现象，黄金境内外价差拉升至历史高点。2021年以来，黄金价格有所回调，但仍保持在1700美元/盎司至 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan is committed to digital wealth management transformation, focusing on customer-centric services and long-termism to enhance wealth management for clients, aiming to create a comprehensive financial service ecosystem that meets diverse needs [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Services - In a low-interest-rate environment, the importance of asset allocation has increased, leading Guotai Junan to develop a systematic buy-side investment research and service framework, enhancing the investment experience and long-term returns [4] - The asset allocation service covers 22 countries and regions, focusing on equities, fixed income, and alternative investments, creating a leading strategy label and product profile system [4] - The "Junying 50" model introduces a new asset allocation approach for qualified investors, supported by a product matrix of tool-based small collective FOFs, enhancing advisory service efficiency [4] Group 2: Investment Products - Guotai Junan has developed a diverse product matrix to enhance investors' long-term success, including "Star 50" and "Star 100" products that cater to different risk preferences and allocation needs [5] - "Junying V50" focuses on high-end private wealth management products, while "Junying 100 E Start Investment" offers a one-stop ETF wealth management solution [5] Group 3: Wealth Experience - The "2026 Five Blessings" event integrates asset allocation services with a festive theme, providing a warm wealth management experience through AI-enabled and scenario-based services [6] - The event includes interactive financial education games and activities that enhance clients' understanding of asset allocation and investment concepts [9] Group 4: Digital Platform - The Junhong APP serves as a comprehensive wealth management platform, offering a full online service process for asset allocation, including diagnosis, planning, and tracking [10] - The platform features an ETF section with a new ETF hot search list and a series of intelligent investment services to assist clients in scientific asset allocation [10] Group 5: Intelligent Investment Experience - Guotai Junan embraces the intelligent investment era by creating a full-service loop covering pre-investment, during-investment, and post-investment phases, utilizing AI to enhance the investment experience [14] - The platform provides tools for real-time market analysis, investment discipline enforcement, and comprehensive account diagnostics [14] Group 6: Future Commitment - Guotai Junan aims to continue focusing on customer needs in wealth management, striving to provide professional asset allocation capabilities to a broader client base [16]

作者 | 第一财经 马一凡 在某个一线城市，"85后"二胎妈妈张楠一家七口人正居住在一套租来的三室两厅里。尽管夫妻双方 年薪不菲，且名下持有小户型学区房，但她依然拒绝了"背房贷换大房"的传统路径，选择用每月近 万元的房租，换取生活的松弛感。 有研究机构统计数据显示，我国约有2.6亿租房人口，在这个庞大的市场中，一场关于居住观念与资 产配置的深刻变革正在悄然发生。当下，越来越多"拖家带口"的中年家庭正涌入租赁市场，将租房 视为一种长期、稳定的生活方式。 2026.02. 10 本文字数：3145，阅读时长大约5分钟 杭州贝壳研究院最新数据显示，2025年杭州36岁以上的租客占比达到31.4%，同比上涨了近7个百 分点。而清华大学五道口金融学院房地产与金融科技研究中心发布的一份研究报告显示，在全国重点 40城，35岁以上租客占比更是逼近四成。 不愿背房贷的城市中年人 张楠在2024年生下二胎后，依然坚定选择了租房居住，至今她还在为这个选择庆幸。 张楠和她的丈夫都在外企工作，两口子都是"85后"，年薪加起来不少，自从前年迎来二娃，家中长 期居住人口突然达到了7个，除了夫妻俩和两娃，还有育儿嫂以及张楠的父母。 "当时 ...

近日，由朝阳永续主办的 2025 年度（第二十届）中国私募基金风云榜评选结果正式揭晓： 【 北京雪球基金销售有限公司 】 这一奖项是行业对雪球基金坚持 "资产配置、长期持有" 理念，深耕财富管理赛道的高度认 可，也标志着雪球基金在独立三方销售领域的标杆地位进一步巩固。 作为国内私募基金行业极具影响力的年度盛会，中国私募基金风云榜已连续举办二十届，始 终坚守 "公平、公正、公开" 原则。本届评选围绕策略创新、长期价值、责任担当三大核心方 向全面升级，新增海外基金评选及私募生态服务机构奖项，构建了覆盖多维度、全生态的综 合评价体系。"年度优秀独立三方基金销售机构" 奖项的评选，重点考察机构的综合服务能 力：专业服务类别、产品类型以及客户服务案例等; 创新能力: 特色创新服务、定制化服务案 例等；可持续发展能力：核心团队构成、外部专家、长期战略规划等。是对获奖机构行业贡 献与市场竞争力的权威认证。 雪球基金此次获奖，得益于独特的 "社区 + 财富管理" 生态布局与持续深耕的专业能力。 雪 球私募基金代销业务是基于雪球基金的基金销售牌照下的合规展业业务。依托雪球独具特色 的内容能力、专业的产品、策略研究能力、对投资人 ...

Market Outlook - Chinese assets are expected to benefit from a steady decline in domestic risk evaluation, contrasting with challenges faced by the governance capabilities of the US and Japan[18] - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in June 2026 is estimated at 50%[17] Asset Performance - A-shares have shown a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.27% over the past week, and the ChiNext Index down by 3.28%[11] - The bond market has seen a short-term rebound, with 10-year government bonds showing a 0.48% increase[11] Risk Assessment - Short-term uncertainty for commodities and gold is on the rise, while A-shares, US stocks, and US bonds exhibit stable medium-term uncertainty[25] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to potential extreme risk events, such as US-China relations and global geopolitical tensions[6] Economic Cooperation - Recent visits by leaders from the UK and Uruguay to China indicate a trend of mid-sized countries seeking economic cooperation with China, enhancing their maneuverability against the US[18]

Asset Allocation Insights - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - The risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - Bond performance in February is expected to follow risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Market Sentiment and Risk Assessment - Regulatory measures in January have led to a more balanced risk preference, with high-risk investors showing decreased appetite while low-risk investors gain confidence[9] - Trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable[9] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Current price increases in cyclical goods are key indicators for asset allocation, with a positive outlook on sectors like chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals[30] - The report highlights two main drivers for price increases: industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[30] Model and Strategy Suggestions - The recommendation includes increasing positions in mid-term bonds and focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and military technology for February[5] - The multi-asset allocation strategy suggests a combination of passive and active enhancements, with a focus on risk parity models for stock and bond allocations[48] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9]

Market Outlook - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - Risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - The bond market is expected to continue following risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Investment Strategy - The report recommends increasing allocations to mid-cap blue chips and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, communication, and electronics[5] - A dual strategy of passive and active enhancement is suggested for stock-bond allocation, with a focus on increasing positions in mid-term bonds[48] Industry Insights - Price increases in cyclical goods are highlighted as key investment clues, particularly in the chemical, agricultural, and non-ferrous sectors[30] - Geopolitical tensions are raising global economic risk assessments, which is a fundamental driver for commodity price increases[30] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9] Risk Considerations - Extreme risk events could disrupt market expectations, and there is a risk of quantitative models failing to predict future trends[6]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the U.S. is in the "fifth stage" of the empire cycle, nearing a collapse of order and conflict due to extreme political polarization and debt imbalance [2][10]. Group 1: Current Economic Environment - Dalio categorizes the U.S. in the fifth stage of a six-stage cycle, indicating a precarious situation just before a potential collapse [4][28]. - He highlights significant wealth disparity and political polarization as key characteristics of this stage, with about 25% of the population willing to engage in violence for their political faction [4][10]. Group 2: Debt and Monetary Policy - The core issue in the sixth stage is the imbalance between the supply and demand for reserve currency, leading to rising long-term interest rates and currency devaluation [5][30]. - Dalio explains that excessive money supply without corresponding demand will result in a depreciation of currency relative to non-sovereign assets like gold [6][30]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Dalio emphasizes gold as a crucial asset, suggesting it should constitute 5% to 15% of an investment portfolio, as it is the only asset not tied to someone else's debt [8][50]. - He distinguishes between "wealth" and "money," asserting that liquidity is vital during crises, and gold serves as a hedge against currency devaluation [8][10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Individuals - Dalio advises individuals to diversify their investments, save, and choose stable living locations to mitigate potential societal upheaval [9][16]. - He stresses the need for strong leadership and political wisdom to address the debt crisis and societal divisions, which he views as a significant challenge [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced significant fluctuations and a remarkable increase over the past decade, with a rise of over 300%, establishing gold as a core asset in global asset allocation [1][17]. Group 1: Price Trends - By the end of January 2026, the international spot gold price surpassed $5,500 per ounce, with subsequent volatility leading to a drop and recovery above $5,000 [1][16]. - In 2016, gold prices ended a three-year decline, with an annual increase of nearly 8%, influenced by events like the Brexit vote [2]. - In 2017, gold prices rebounded from a low of $1,146.14 per ounce to a high of $1,357.67, closing the year at $1,302.67, with an average price of $1,257.2 [7]. - The year 2018 saw central banks purchase a record 651.5 tons of gold, contributing to a slight annual price increase despite market fluctuations [7]. - In 2019, gold prices surged to around $1,500 per ounce, with an annual increase of 18.3%, marking the best performance since 2010 [8]. - The year 2020 experienced a 25% increase in gold prices, maintaining an upward trend despite minor fluctuations [8]. - In 2022, gold prices fluctuated significantly due to geopolitical tensions and inflation, achieving a 5.6% annual increase [9]. - In 2023, gold prices reached a peak of $2,152.3 per ounce, with an annual increase of approximately 13% [9]. - The year 2024 saw gold prices rise significantly, with a nearly 30% annual increase, marking the largest annual gain since 2010 [10]. - In 2025, gold prices exploded, surpassing $4,600 per ounce, with an annual increase exceeding 60%, the largest since the 1979 oil crisis [11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for gold has shifted from a mere safe-haven asset to a core component of global central bank reserves, with gold's share in official reserves rising to 28.9% by Q3 2025 [17]. - The global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have reinforced gold's status as a tangible asset, challenging the dominance of the US dollar [17]. - Central banks have increasingly diversified their asset allocations by purchasing gold, indicating a structural change in global gold market demand [17].

近期全球黄金市场呈现明显的震荡格局，多空双方博弈持续升温，金价在区间内反复波动，既展现出阶段性强势，也伴随短期回调压力。作为连接普通投资 者与黄金资产的便捷工具，黄金ETF的布局节奏备受关注。下文将从市场波动根源、金价驱动因素入手，结合当前市场环境，为投资者解析黄金ETF的合理 布局思路。 数据来源：Wind，2026/2/9 回顾近期伦敦金现走势，整体呈现剧烈波动。1月下旬受美联储降息预期与避险需求推动，金价持续走强，1月29日触及5598.75美元/盎司历史新高，随后获 利盘集中出逃引发快速回调，1月30日单日大跌，2月初下探至4402美元/盎司，回撤幅度显著。随后强势深V反弹，单日大涨超5%，收复关键价位，随后逐 步企稳回升，当前伦敦金现报5017.77美元/盎司，围绕5000美元关口高位整理。本轮行情核心驱动来自美联储政策预期摇摆、短期资金博弈与央行购金支 撑，短期波动加剧，市场在高位震荡中重新定价利率与避险逻辑，整体维持强势格局。 当前黄金定价仍由风险溢价与货币政策预期共同锚定。美国劳动力市场多项数据持续走弱，CME FedWatch显示2026年内降息概率进一步上修，无息资产的 中期配置环境持续改 ...