Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.8%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 1.9%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.1%, the ChiNext Index fell by 1.8%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.2% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were steel (+0.9%), non-ferrous metals (+0.8%), utilities (+0.1%), transportation (+0.1%), and banking (+0.1%). The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-2.8%), electronics (-2.2%), defense and military (-2.0%), media (-1.9%), and comprehensive (-1.8%) [4] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 24,217 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 13.64 billion Hong Kong dollars [4] Important Insights Fixed Income Credit Bonds - The report defines exiting the low-interest rate environment as the 10-year government bond yield rising trend-wise above 2%. It notes that overseas economies typically exit low rates due to a combination of improving fundamentals and tightening monetary policy. In contrast, while China's economy is in a mild recovery phase, there is a lack of fundamental and policy support for a significant rise in interest rates in the short term, suggesting that the low-interest rate environment may persist for a longer duration. Based on overseas experiences, the median duration for major economies to exit low rates is 4.77 years, implying that China may require an additional 4 years to exit this phase [5] Macroeconomic Research - The report discusses the hawkish guidance from Powell regarding a potential rate cut in December, stating that there is "no conclusion yet." Market expectations for rate cuts may narrow, with no change in viewpoints. The driving factors include data releases, and there is a focus on the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart normalizing balance sheet expansion in 2026 [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.0% was interpreted as a "hawkish cut," indicating internal divisions regarding future monetary policy direction [2][10][29]. Group 1: October FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC cut rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, but there were dissenting votes advocating for a larger cut or no cut at all [20]. - The economic outlook has improved marginally, with GDP growth expectations for Q3 revised upward to an annualized rate of 3.9%, compared to previous quarters [21]. - The statement on employment and inflation remained unchanged, but the overall economic activity is now described as expanding at a moderate pace [21]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the meeting, the probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly from 92.3% to 68.9%, leading to increased volatility in the stock market and a rebound in the dollar index and Treasury yields [33]. - Despite the hawkish tone, there is still a strong likelihood of a rate cut in December, driven by a cooling labor market and manageable inflation risks [6][14]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Employment Trends - The labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, with private employment figures indicating a decline in job creation [6][14]. - Inflation, particularly core PCE, is currently at 2.8%, with expectations that it may peak around 3% in the fourth quarter [14][32]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Policy Adjustments - The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction by December, transitioning to a strategy of reinvesting maturing securities while maintaining a stable portfolio structure [4][22]. - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction is influenced by rising liquidity pressures in the money market and the need to align reserve levels with economic conditions [23].

Core Viewpoint - The market's perception of the recent interest rate cut has shifted to a "hawkish cut," indicating that the extent of policy easing did not meet the market's expectations for a "liquidity feast" [3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision and Market Reaction - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, and will end quantitative tightening on December 1 [3]. - Despite the rate cut, the market reacted negatively, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.16% and the Nasdaq showing a slight increase of 0.55%, indicating a mixed response to the Fed's decision [3]. - The market's expectations for a December rate cut dropped significantly, with implied probabilities falling from over 90% to between 65%-71% [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The market's prior optimism was evident with significant movements in various assets, including the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points and gold prices breaching $4000 per ounce [6]. - The Fed's decision was complicated by the absence of key economic data due to government shutdowns, leading to a sense of uncertainty in decision-making [8][9]. - The Fed's statement reflected a cautious approach, acknowledging incomplete data and shifting from "growth slowdown" to "moderate expansion," indicating a more dovish stance [9]. Group 3: Global Liquidity and Reserve Changes - A significant shift in global liquidity dynamics is occurring, with central banks increasing their gold reserves from 24% to 30% since June [15]. - The attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds is declining due to factors such as high inflation and concerns over U.S. fiscal policies, leading to a potential reallocation of reserves towards gold [16]. - The international monetary system is undergoing changes, influenced by the weakening of dollar credit and the rise of alternative assets like gold [17][18]. Group 4: Investment Implications - Investors are advised to avoid betting against the Federal Reserve, especially during periods of data uncertainty, as the real risk lies in underestimating asset price vulnerabilities [21]. - The recent pullback in gold prices may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors, although short-term fluctuations are expected [21].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, and will end quantitative tightening on December 1 [3] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for a more aggressive approach [3][4] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Dow Jones down 0.16% and the Nasdaq slightly up by 0.55%, indicating mixed market reactions [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for a December rate cut have significantly decreased, with implied probabilities dropping from over 90% to between 65%-71% [5] - The market's initial optimism regarding liquidity and future growth was quickly dampened by Powell's comments on the uncertainty of future rate cuts [6][10] - The decision-making process was complicated by the absence of key economic data due to government shutdowns, leading to a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve [7][8] Group 3 - The global liquidity landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with central banks increasing their gold reserves from 24% to 30% [13] - The shift in reserve assets is driven by diminishing confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds, which are perceived as less attractive due to high inflation and geopolitical factors [14] - The international monetary system is experiencing changes, including a decline in dollar credibility and the rise of alternative assets like gold [15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After Powell's hawkish statement, the prices of gold and silver dropped in the short term. The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. However, the Fed Chairman has made a statement on balance sheet expansion. This FOMC meeting sent a signal that the December interest rate cut is still uncertain while strengthening the subsequent monetary policy idea of "rate cut + balance sheet expansion." In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to buy on dips for silver, which will benefit more. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10937 - 11690 yuan/kilogram [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.69% to 910.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 0.64% to 11265.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 3949.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 47.54 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.08%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.13 [1]. - The Fed held an FOMC meeting early today. The tone of this meeting was a "hawkish rate cut." Powell's monetary policy statement was hawkish, and he also made a statement on the final balance sheet expansion [1]. Key Focus Directions of the FOMC Meeting - The statement on the subsequent interest rate path was more hawkish than market expectations. Powell stated that "a rate cut in December is not a certainty," and the lack of economic data could be a reason to pause interest rate adjustments [1]. - The discussion on the balance sheet was more dovish than market expectations in the medium term. Although the FOMC decided to end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, which was later than market expectations, Powell clearly stated that the Fed would expand the balance sheet again. This was his first key statement on balance sheet expansion in this rate - cut cycle [1]. - The voting was more hawkish than market expectations. Fed Governor Milan voted against as expected and supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut. Governors Bowman and Waller did not support aggressive rate cuts. Hawkish voting member Schmidt voted against and supported keeping the interest rate unchanged at this FOMC meeting [2]. Gold and Silver Data Comparison (2025 - 10 - 29 vs. 2025 - 10 - 28) - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.67% to 3941.70 US dollars/ounce, trading volume decreased by 14.96% to 28.11 million lots, and open interest increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. LBMA gold's closing price increased by 1.47% to 4006.70 US dollars/ounce. Shanghai Gold's closing price (active contract) increased by 1.05% to 910.88 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 25.73% to 47.79 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.93% to 34.27 million lots. The closing price of AuT + D increased by 1.75% to 912.42 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 23.05% to 52.13 tons, and open interest decreased by 1.19% to 255.69 tons [5]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) increased by 0.29% to 47.28 US dollars/ounce, and open interest increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. LBMA silver's closing price increased by 3.74% to 48.18 US dollars/ounce. Shanghai Silver's closing price (active contract) increased by 2.62% to 11338.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 28.93% to 125.13 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.93% to 68.89 million lots. The closing price of AgT + D increased by 3.23% to 11351.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 20.90% to 605.45 tons, and open interest decreased by 2.92% to 3609.146 tons [5].

Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% with a 10 to 2 vote[2] - The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) is set for December 1[2] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the pace of rate cuts, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut[3] Future Rate Outlook - Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, as inflation remains resilient and non-farm payroll data shows a cooling trend[4] - The Fed may lean towards a slower pace of rate cuts in December due to data uncertainties[4] Market Reactions - The market reacted to the hawkish tone of the Fed, with U.S. Treasury yields and rate cut expectations declining, while the dollar strengthened and gold prices fell[6] - CME's expectations for a December rate cut have decreased to around 67%[6] Economic Conditions - Current credit market conditions are deemed to have no systemic risks, and AI continues to support stock market performance, boosting sentiment in U.S. equities[5] - The U.S. economy is experiencing stagflation, with a divide between booming AI investments and sluggish low-end consumer spending[6] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to look for opportunities in low-end consumer stocks like DLTR amidst ongoing government shutdowns and the suspension of food stamps[6] - For U.S. Treasuries, there are opportunities to go long around a yield of approximately 4.2%[8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but maintains a hawkish stance regarding future rate cuts, indicating no consensus on a December rate cut due to the stable employment market [1][3] - The Fed has officially decided to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, ceasing the monthly liquidity contraction of $40 billion, and will adjust the structure of maturing asset reinvestments to focus on Treasury securities instead of MBS [2][6] - Powell highlighted that the government shutdown could negatively impact the economy, with previous estimates suggesting a $18 billion loss, but current employment and inflation trends remain stable [3][5] Group 2 - The Fed's description of inflation and employment remains largely unchanged, but the economic outlook has become more optimistic, indicating moderate economic expansion [2][3] - The current level of bank reserves is approaching a liquidity threshold of 9% of GDP, which is critical for maintaining financial stability, as a drop below this level could lead to liquidity risks [6][7] - The potential for the Fed to restart normal balance sheet expansion is contingent on the increase of non-reserve liabilities, which currently represent 53% of the Fed's total liabilities, still below the 60.6% observed in September 2019 [8] Group 3 - The average tariff level in the U.S. is projected to rise from 2.4% to 17.9% by 2025, contributing to higher CPI for imported goods, with current consumer exposure to tariffs at approximately 35% [4][5] - The transmission of tariffs to inflation may increase, potentially invalidating the notion of "transitory inflation" as the burden shifts more towards consumers [4][5] - The dollar index is expected to remain stable around 100, supported by resilient corporate capital expenditures, while the stock market outlook remains positive due to the synergy between AI investments and economic growth [9][10]

一、今日金价全景：国际国内同步回调，实物金店价稳量缩 从技术指标看，黄金前期涨势已显疲态。尽管缺乏当日完整 RSI 数据，但 10 月 21 日市场分析显示，黄金 RSI 指标长期处于 70 以上超买区间，8 月以来的 连续上涨形成 "上升三角形破裂" 形态，技术面回调需求强烈。此前纽约金从 3800 美元涨至 4146.7 美元的过程中，未出现有效回调，此次下跌可视为对超 买状态的修正。 10 月 22 日黄金市场迎来显著回调，国际与国内品种价格同步走低。截至当日 8 时 28 分，国际市场上，纽约金期货价格报 4025.5 美元 / 盎司，较前一日下 跌 83.6 美元，跌幅达 2.03%，日内最低触及 4025 美元关口；伦敦金现报 4053 美元 / 盎司，下跌 39.52 美元，跌幅 0.97%，盘中波动区间达 89.8 美元。 国内市场方面，上海黄金交易所黄金 T D 品种暂未开盘，报价 944.47 元 / 克，较前收盘价下跌 44.98 元，跌幅 4.55%，早盘最低探至 935 元 / 克；上海期货 交易所沪金期货同步承压，报价 945.44 元 / 克，跌幅 4.64%，较前日高点 966 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut, U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, leading to fluctuations in silver prices, with industrial silver closing at 9.829 yuan per gram, up 3.11% [1] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields is attributed to a steepening yield curve, reflecting a "hawkish rate cut" characteristic, influenced by robust economic data such as unemployment claims and Philadelphia Fed data [2] - The market is re-evaluating the yield path due to the lack of stronger dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, resulting in increased attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets [2] Group 2 - The latest TIC report shows a moderate net inflow of approximately $2 billion into U.S. securities, with notable sell-offs from China ($25 billion) and Japan ($26 billion), continuing a trend observed in recent years [2] - In contrast, the UK emerged as a significant buyer with $43 billion, alongside other foreign investors, excluding China and Japan, who collectively bought $54 billion [3] - Over the past 12 months, the average monthly foreign investment in U.S. securities was $61 billion, while domestic investment averaged $134 billion, indicating a stable support trend for U.S. securities [3]

Group 1 - The silver market experienced a significant drop after failing to break the $43 resistance level, but managed to rebound and recover some losses [1] - The short-term trading dynamics are influenced by the price being above the EMA50, providing support and positive momentum, particularly with encouraging signals from the relative strength index [1] - The U.S. Treasury market's movements have a profound impact on both the dollar and silver, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve influencing market dynamics [2] Group 2 - Recent TIC data shows a moderate net inflow of approximately $2 billion into U.S. securities, despite significant sell-offs by China and Japan, indicating a mixed sentiment among foreign investors [3] - The overall trend suggests that U.S. securities continue to receive reasonable support, which could provide potential backing for U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - Silver prices are currently in a bullish structure, with key resistance levels identified at $42.950 and $43.516, and potential upward movement if these levels are broken [4]