农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米近月合约减仓下行，端午假期结束后的首个交易日，期价承压下行， 技术上重回弱势表现。与期货下跌相比，玉米现货维持偏强表现。端午假日期间 期货市场缺少盘面的指引，北港主流收购价格维持稳定，产区深加工主流收购价 | 震荡下跌 | | | 格也暂无明显调整。端午节期间，华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏强运行。麦收之 | | | | 前部分贸易商仍然继续出货，东北粮源持续流入，华北市场整体供应尚可，部分 | | | | 企业玉米价格上调 6-20 元/吨。端午节假期，销区市场玉米价格基本稳定。假期 | | | | 期间下游企业采购较少，使用前期订单及库存为主，产区价格暂时稳定，部分销 | | | | 区市场港口贸易商报价小幅上调。技术上，7 月合约是主力合约，今日期价表现 | | | | 受制于 20 日均线的压制，一根长阴线收复此前连续一周的上涨。从技术端和心 | | | | 理上恢复了悲观的预期。这样玉米市场中，现货强、期货弱，基差走强的表现还 | | | | 在继续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - The industrial silicon industry is expected to continue its weak and volatile operation due to the oversupply situation in the short - term, with relatively high total inventory pressure and weak downstream demand [3]. - The polysilicon industry is expected to have a wide - range volatile operation, affected by the increase in warehouse receipts and weak downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2507 opened at 7110 yuan/ton and closed at 7070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton (-1.39%) compared to the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2507 was 200193 lots at the close, and on June 4, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 62690 lots, a decrease of 563 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8500 - 9200 (-100) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions also continued to fall. In May 2025, the industrial silicon output was 30.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative output decreased by 15.3% year - on - year [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. Some manufacturers stopped quoting prices. The overall market trading atmosphere was good, and the trading activity of both buyers and sellers was at a normal level [2]. - **Strategy** - The industrial silicon futures price hit a new low, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply was relatively weak overall, but the expectation of resuming production in large northwest factories increased, and some silicon factories in the southwest were preparing to start furnaces during the wet season. The demand remained weak. It is recommended to use range - based operations for single - side trading, and upstream producers should sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 3, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fell sharply, opening at 35605 yuan/ton and closing at 34360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 71600 lots (77400 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 144680 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, while the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 27.00, a month - on - month increase of 3.85%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.57GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00%. The weekly polysilicon output was 21600.00 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.40%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.40GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.75% [4][5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - **Strategy** - The futures price showed a weak and volatile trend, mainly affected by the significant increase in the number of warehouse receipts. The spot price was stable with a slight decline. The polysilicon industry was operating at a reduced load, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved, but the inventory digestion was slow. The downstream demand was still weak. It is recommended to use range - based operations for single - side trading, and upstream producers should sell hedging at high prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In May 2025, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3, the first time below the critical point since October 2024, indicating a decline in both supply and demand in the manufacturing sector, with significant drag from external demand, continued contraction in employment, weak prices, and delayed logistics [7][8]. - For caustic soda, there is a strong current situation but weak expectations. The market is bearish on caustic soda profits due to insufficient demand - side drive, but the short - term downside space may be limited under the strong basis pattern [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber has a short - term static valuation with a small rebound at a low level, but the medium - term fundamental pressure is still relatively large [13]. - Rapeseed meal is affected by the weakening of soybean meal spot prices and the market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations. Rapeseed meal futures are expected to remain under pressure following soybean meal futures [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals - **Gold and Silver**: During the holiday, the Russia - Ukraine issue flared up again. Gold prices rose nearly 3% and silver followed the rebound. The trend intensities of gold and silver are both 2, indicating a bullish outlook [21][25]. - **Copper**: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The trend intensity is 1, showing a relatively strong trend [27][29]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation, and alumina has a small rebound. The trend intensities of both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [30][32]. - **Zinc**: The price is relatively pressured at the upper level. The trend intensity is 0, showing a neutral trend [33][34]. - **Lead**: It is operating within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [35][36]. - **Tin**: It has stopped falling and started to rise. The trend intensity is 1, showing a relatively strong trend [37][40]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is supported by short - term costs but suppressed by weak expectations. Stainless steel is in a game between negative feedback and production cuts, with steel prices oscillating within a range. The trend intensities of both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [41][42][47]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The ore price dropped rapidly after the holiday, and the lithium price trend remains weak. The trend intensity is - 1, showing a bearish trend [49][51]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is oscillating weakly at the bottom, and polysilicon has an unexpected large increase in warehouse receipts, with the disk having a downward driving force. The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1 and - 2 respectively, showing bearish trends [52][54]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a strong current situation but weak expectations. Attention should be paid to cost changes. The market is bearish on caustic soda profits, but the short - term downside space may be limited [9][10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has a short - term static valuation with a small rebound at a low level, but the medium - term fundamental pressure is still relatively large [13]. 3.3 Building Materials and Minerals - **Iron Ore**: The demand expectation is weak, and the price faces downward risks. The trend intensity is - 1, showing a bearish trend [55]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by the macro - sentiment, the weak trend continues. The trend intensities of both are - 1, showing bearish trends [58][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Silicon ferrosilicon is continuously exploring the bottom and oscillating weakly, and manganese silicide's ore end continues to be under pressure and oscillating weakly. The trend intensities of both are - 1, showing bearish trends [62][64]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is in a wide - range oscillation, and coking coal is affected by news and in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensities of both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [65][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: It is in a stable stage at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [69][71]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by the weakening of soybean meal spot prices, it is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations. Rapeseed meal futures are expected to remain under pressure following soybean meal futures [15]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by India's tax cut and crude oil, the short - term sentiment is positive [69]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force of the soybean system is not strong, and it is relatively weak among varieties [69]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by the rebound of US soybeans and the weakness of rapeseed meal, it may still oscillate [71].

早盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，集运欧线涨超5%，沪锡、焦煤涨超2%。跌幅方面，烧碱、菜 油跌超2%，菜粕、纸浆、PX跌近2%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the social inventory increased, and the spot price declined due to the market's sensitivity to inventory changes. The supply side has no negative factors, but the sustainability of consumption may change in June. As the traditional consumption off - season approaches in China, it's difficult for aluminum prices to break through upwards without unexpected positive stimuli, and the risk of cost collapse should be watched [3]. - For alumina, the supply is increasing due to the release of new and restarted production capacity, and the decline in social inventory is slowing down. The spot price may have reached its peak. The futures price is still at a discount to the spot price, and in the long - term, the price will face pressure due to the expected supply surplus [3]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum Spot - On June 3, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,120 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 60 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 19,970 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On June 3, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,115 yuan/ton, closing at 19,860 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton (-1.12%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 183,523 lots, up 12,432 lots, and the open interest was 191,144 lots, down 4,520 lots [1]. Aluminum Inventory - As of June 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 519,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 367,875 tons, down 2,400 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina Spot - On June 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On June 3, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3,030 yuan/ton, closing at 2,998 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton (1.39%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 423,143 lots, down 116,816 lots, and the open interest was 311,224 lots, down 9,045 lots [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation and accumulation of momentum. The overall fundamentals are bearish, and the bullish view is treated as a technical rebound. Short - selling opportunities after the rebound can be considered [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. Considering the possible improvement of China - Canada relations, caution is needed when chasing long positions [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound and consolidation. It is expected to maintain a bullish trend this week, but short - selling opportunities after the rebound should be noted due to the ongoing inventory accumulation cycle [1]. - **Cotton**: Weak operation. It is expected to fluctuate weakly below 70 cents in the international market, and the upward driving force of domestic cotton prices is weak in the near future [1]. - **Red Dates**: Short - term weakening. The market is expected to be weak this week, and attention should be paid to weather - related premium disturbances [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating at the bottom. The strategy is to sell high and short, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread opportunity [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: South American soybean production is basically determined, and U.S. soybean planting has started with a progress much higher than last year and the five - year average. There is sufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and the rainfall outlook for June is normal according to CPC [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are continuously increasing. As the operating rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and there is a need for replenishment. The monthly average import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of May 30, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 5.8288 million tons [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.11% to 2935 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price decreased by 1.55% to 2929.14 yuan/ton. There were changes in various spreads such as basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - term spreads [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply Situation**: Currently, oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have no pressure, but commercial rapeseed meal inventories are high, which is bearish for the July contract. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and long - term imports are expected to be low due to poor import profits from Canada. However, the possible improvement of China - Canada relations may affect the supply situation [1][4]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 3.03% to 2557 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price decreased by 0.36% to 2616.32 yuan/ton. There were changes in basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - term spreads [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Export**: As of May 30, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 364,000 tons, a 7.47% increase from last week. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 30 days of May were strong, and India's palm oil imports increased significantly in May. India also lowered the import tariff on edible oils starting from May 30 [9][10]. - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The futures price of the main contract increased by 1.69% to 8196 yuan/ton, and the national average price increased by 2.00% to 8690 yuan/ton. The proportion of market participants looking up increased, while the proportions of those looking flat and down decreased [9]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of June 1, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 66%, and about 7% of the cotton - growing areas were affected by drought. The new - crop good - quality rate was 49%. The 2024/25 Brazilian cotton production is estimated to be 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% increase year - on - year [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and the new - season production is expected to reach 7.2 - 7.4 million tons. The import of cotton resources has decreased for four consecutive times, and the domestic textile industry is in the off - season with limited order rebounds [13]. - **Price and Related Data**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 0.11% to 13260 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.15% to 14558 yuan/ton. There were changes in basis, cross - term spreads, and other data [11]. Red Dates - **Production and Inventory**: The main contract decreased by 0.23% to 8625 yuan/ton. The growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is normal, and the physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 85 tons this week, still higher than the same period last year [15][16]. - **Market Situation**: The market supply in the sales area is continuous, and merchants mainly replenish for刚需. With the rise in temperature, the demand for dried fruits is expected to decline seasonally [16]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: The main contract decreased by 0.81% to 13510 yuan/ton. The supply pressure has not significantly improved, and both group farms and farmers are increasing the slaughter volume. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased significantly, and the demand is expected to decline after the festival [18][19]. - **Price and Related Data**: The national average spot price increased by 0.07% to 14650 yuan/ton. There were changes in inventory, slaughter volume, and other data [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-04甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：内地方面，前期下跌过程中贸易商和下游采购意愿较差，部分产区工厂处于累库状态，且煤制甲醇利润丰 厚下周初上游主动大幅让利刺激出货为主，看空后市情绪下，长协贸易商出货意愿强烈且有做空行为。而鲁北下游 MTBE开工维持低位，周内采购也有减少，下游也顺势压价，上半周销区同步走跌。但随着产销区甲醇价格跌破近一年 来最低点，底部空间下贸易商持货意愿增强以及部分补空单需求下，下半周内地甲醇行情逐止跌回稳。港口方面，亦是 呈现先跌后稳走势，上半周供需面表现偏弱下，期现货价格同步下行，基差亦有走弱，随着美国联邦法院暂停关税政策 的消息传出，期货盘面获得支撑，多空因素博弈下港口价格震荡为主；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为22 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-04 库存表现难言消费走弱 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-26.08 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨20元/吨至22790元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨70元/吨至590元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌50元/吨至22660元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于460元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至22760 元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨30元/吨至560元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-03沪锌主力合约开于22330元/吨，收于22180元/吨，较前一交易日下跌105元/吨，全天交易日 成交155440手，较前一交易日减少26261手，全天交易日持仓122728手，较前一交易日增加6114手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22515元/吨，最低点达到22090元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-03，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.74万吨，较上周同期减少-0.14万吨。截止2025-06-03，LME 锌库存为137350吨，较上一交易日减少800吨。 市场分析 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The asphalt market has a solid short - term support, with the spot market showing a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the improvement in the consumption side is still insufficient, and the increase in rainfall in the south will limit project construction and terminal demand, restricting the market's upward space. The supply - demand weakness pattern continues, but due to the low pressure on regional traders at the beginning of the month, the average domestic asphalt price has increased [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On June 3, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2507 in the afternoon session was 3482 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton or 1.22% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 95984 lots, down 4606 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 196526 lots, down 98818 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3780 - 4091 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3470 - 3870 yuan/ton; South China, 3410 - 3450 yuan/ton; East China, 3530 - 3620 yuan/ton. Prices in Shandong, North China, and East China markets rose yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. - The supply - demand weakness pattern of asphalt continues. The rigid demand for asphalt is generally poor, but due to the low shipment pressure of regional traders at the beginning of the month, the willingness to hold prices is strong, leading to an increase in the average domestic asphalt price. Currently, the increase in market supply is limited, and both the overall operating rate and inventory are at low levels, resulting in limited market pressure and a solid short - term support. However, the improvement in the consumption side is still insufficient [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation [2]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the spread of BU2507 - 2509 at low prices (positive spread trading) [2]. - Inter - commodity: None [2]. - Futures - cash: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-04 关注港口累库兑现速率 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润568元/吨（-28）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1863元/吨（-28），内蒙北线基差238元/吨（-45），内蒙南线1840元/吨（-10）；山东临沂2170元/吨（-5），鲁 南基差145元/吨（-22）；河南2065元/吨（+0），河南基差40元/吨（-17）；河北2040元/吨（+0），河北基差75元/吨（-17）。 隆众内地工厂库存354950吨（+18940），西北工厂库存216000吨（+9000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单249892吨（+14686）， 西北工厂待发订单128500吨（+12500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2275元/吨（+28），太仓基差50元/吨（+11），CFR中国257美元/吨（+1），华东进口价差-20元/ 吨（+3），常州甲醇2290元/吨；广东甲醇2275元/吨（+5），广东基差50元/吨（-12）。隆众港口总库存522960吨（+32581）， 江苏港口库存230000吨（+15000），浙江港口库存 ...