Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 27, the JM2601 contract closed at 1071.0, down 0.19%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1420, equivalent to 1200 on the futures market. The macro - situation: the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the market's expectations. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines declined this period, and the coking coal inventory of mines and coal washing plants increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The overall inventory is at a moderate level with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - On November 27, the J2601 contract closed at 1607.0, up 0.03%. The fourth round of price increase for coke in the spot market has been implemented. The macro - situation: on November 24, South Korea announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium and heavy plates and alloy steel hot - rolled thick plates for 5 years. Fundamentally, in terms of demand, the pig iron output this period was 236.28 (-0.60) million tons, and the total coke inventory is relatively high compared to the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country this period was 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1071.00 yuan/ton, down 13.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1607.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 862195.00 lots, down 16796.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 48293.00 lots, down 1586.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts: - 112785.00 lots, down 10341.00 lots; net position of the top 20 J contracts: - 274.00 lots, up 101.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 94.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread: 144.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 2070.00 [2]. Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Meng 5 raw coal: 1008.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1885.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 162.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1670.00 yuan/ton, down 110.00 yuan; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 278.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 539.00 yuan/ton, up 13.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 26.60 million tons per day, down 1.00 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 305.30 million tons per week, up 2.50 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.36%, down 0.01%; raw coal output: 40675.00 million tons per month, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4174.00 million tons per month, down 426.00 million tons; the average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 191.30 million tons, down 2.10 million tons [2]. - The imported coking coal inventory of 16 ports: 456.90 million tons per week, down 31.30 million tons; the coke inventory of 18 ports: 253.40 million tons per week, down 6.10 million tons [2]. - The total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 1038.19 million tons per week, down 30.78 million tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 65.29 million tons per week, up 7.14 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 797.08 million tons per week, up 6.91 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 622.34 million tons per week, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.97 days per week, up 0.10 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 11.05 days per week, down 0.01 days [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports: 1059.32 million tons per month, down 33.04 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 73.00 million tons per month, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 3975.92 million tons per month, up 279.06 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 71.71%, up 0.07% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 19.00 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan; coke output: 4189.60 million tons per month, down 66.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 82.17%, down 0.62%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7199.70 million tons per month, down 149.31 million tons [2]. Industry News - The Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane, said that the world economy is undergoing profound changes beyond the impact of US tariffs, and Europe must start to seek growth drivers locally as its traditional sources of income are drying up [2]. - According to Bloomberg News, the Pentagon believes that Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD should be included in the list of enterprises assisting the Chinese military [2]. - From January to October, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan [2]. - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption", aiming to form 3 trillion - level and 100 - billion - level consumer sectors by 2027 [2].

国内期货主力合约多数上涨，铂涨近7%，钯涨近3%，沪银涨超2%，沪锡、工业硅、鸡蛋涨近2%，玻 璃、棕榈油、豆油、尿素涨超1%。跌幅方面，集运欧线、短纤、沥青、碳酸锂跌超1%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, and BR is also rated neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For RU and NR, with the decrease of rainfall in Thailand, the futures price has dropped. The inventory in Qingdao Port and social inventory in China are increasing, and the increase rate has accelerated recently. The end - of - season in Yunnan is not conducive to the output of RU deliverable products, while Hainan may have an increase in raw materials. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, and the inventory of dark rubber in China may continue to increase. The downstream demand has no highlights, and the recovery space of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand difference may be beneficial to the spread expansion between RU and NR and the reverse arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For BR, the upstream device has some changes, but the short - term supply change is limited. The production profit of private enterprises has improved, and the supply is expected to remain abundant. The downstream demand has no highlights, and the recovery space of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,195 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,165 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,360 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports from January to October 2025: The export volume was 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025: The import volume was 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC September 2025 report forecast: The global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports in the first three quarters of 2025: The total export volume (excluding compound rubber) was 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export volume of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export volume of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export volume of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export volume to China was 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export volume of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export volume of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export volume of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - China's passenger car market in October 2025: The retail volume was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of growth. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - EU passenger car market in September 2025: The sales volume increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 26, 2025: RU basis was - 395 yuan/ton (- 20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 645 yuan/ton (+ 70), NR basis was 826 yuan/ton (+ 15); whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (+ 0), 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (- 100). STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,750 yuan/ton (+ 0) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.91 Thai baht/kg (- 0.46), Thai latex was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.85), the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (- 2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (- 3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+ 16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,079,708 tons (+ 17,827), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (- 68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+ 504) [6] Cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads on November 26, 2025: BR basis was - 160 yuan/ton (- 190), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,100 yuan/ton (- 100), the quotation of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,250 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 9,880 yuan/ton (- 40), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,403 yuan/ton (unchanged) [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 72.64% (+ 2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 5,540 tons (+ 660), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,900 tons (+ 270) [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply - demand gap narrows, but the lack of cost - side support limits the upward drive, and it may mainly fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have eased, international oil prices have dropped significantly, driving the support at the cost end of propylene to decline. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of loose propylene supply and demand, there is insufficient upward drive in the fundamentals, and the market continues to fluctuate weakly. On the supply side, the PDH units of Binhuahua and Xintai Petrochemical continue to be under maintenance, and the PDH unit of Juzhengyuan in South China is under maintenance, but the downstream supporting PP is also under maintenance, so the impact on supply is limited. On the demand side, the previously shut - down units have restarted intensively, and the overall downstream operation has increased slightly. However, considering that the downstream profit is under pressure due to the rising propylene price, the spread between PP and propylene has narrowed, and downstream users are resistant to high - priced raw materials, so the demand support for propylene has weakened. The international oil price trend is weak, and there is still pressure of oversupply in the medium and long term. The supply of propane from the Middle East to China is tight, and the price of external propane has strengthened slightly recently. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5820 yuan/ton (-18), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (+40), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6075 yuan/ton (+55), the basis of propylene in East China is 180 yuan/ton (+58), and the basis of propylene in North China is 222 yuan/ton (+92) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of propylene is 74% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha is 174 US dollars/ton (+2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 56 US dollars/ton (-2) [1] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 269 yuan/ton (+33) [1] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PP powder is 47% (+3.02%), and the production profit is - 365 yuan/ton (-15); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 75% (+0%), and the production profit is 647 yuan/ton (+8); the operating rate of n - butanol is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (-35); the operating rate of octanol is 77% (+8%), and the production profit is - 46 yuan/ton (+60); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 73% (-2%), and the production profit is 440 yuan/ton (-39); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 80% (+1%), and the production profit is - 464 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 79% (+12%), and the production profit is - 415 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 45040 tons (-2150) [1]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.59%，报收 64.61 美分/磅，CF601 环比持平，报收 13625 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11839 手至 54.06 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14475 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。国际市场方面，宏观层面是近期市场关注重点，随着 | | | | 美国经济数据、报告陆续恢复发布，美联储 12 月降息 25bp 概率逐渐升温，目前 | | | | 已至八成以上。昨日美元指数震荡走弱，美棉期价重心小幅上移。基本面方面， | | | | USDA11 月报公布后，市场仍缺乏新的锚点，美棉出口周报缺口时间较长，整体 | | | | 驱动因素有限，震荡为主。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉主力合约减仓 1 万余手，仍 | | | | 在当前压力位震荡。我们认为，当前郑棉上下方驱动均相对有限。当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea trading strengthened again after a slight price correction. The start - up of compound fertilizers in Northeast China is gradually increasing, and production scheduling in Shandong and Hubei has increased. The start - up of melamine has risen with rigid demand for procurement. The off - season storage has gradually entered the market. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose, and the gas - head maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Supported by reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer start - up, urea enterprises' shipments improved, factory inventories decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. The export quota news improved the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. The report suggests a range - bound and slightly stronger trend for unilateral trading, a wait - and - see approach for inter - period trading, and no suggestion for inter - variety trading [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1654 yuan/ton (+24). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1630 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1620 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was - 24 yuan/ton (-24), in Henan was - 24 yuan/ton (-34), and in Jiangsu was - 34 yuan/ton (-34) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of November 26, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 26, 2025, the urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1004 yuan/ton (-8). In October, 1200000 tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600000 tons, which improved the year - end export expectation [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61% (+4.29%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.65 days (-0.47) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73300), and the port sample inventory was 100000 tons (+18000) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cautious and slightly bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The 01 contract may have limited upside potential, and long - term attention should be paid to the 05 contract [4]. - For PX, the PXN is supported by polyester start - up, but the high PX load and capacity expansion of some plants limit the rebound space. For TA, short - term supply - demand has improved, and long - term PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. For PF, the fundamentals are okay, and the processing fee is expected to remain stable. For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - TA main contract spot basis is - 31 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: +12 yuan/ton), PTA spot processing fee is 201 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: - 11 yuan/ton), and main contract disk processing fee is 265 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: - 12 yuan/ton) [2]. - PXN was 265 dollars/ton (month - on - month change: +1.75 dollars/ton) [1]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit are involved in the analysis [16][19]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit are analyzed [24][25]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA loads, as well as China and Asia's PX loads are presented [27][30][31]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are mentioned [35][38][39]. Downstream Polyester Load - Polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (month - on - month: +0.8%). With the cooling weather and the start of Double Eleven, domestic sales orders have improved significantly since late October. The inventory of polyester factories is low, and the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. PF Detailed Data - PF spot production profit is 157 yuan/ton (month - on - month: - 7 yuan/ton). Short - fiber load is high, and inventory has been reduced to a low level. Direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and it is difficult to increase prices [2]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Bottle - chip spot processing fee is 447 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: +7 yuan/ton). Bottle - chip load remains stable, large factories generally maintain production cuts, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is inter - period positive spread [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium has been rising, mainly due to a decrease in supply. The overseas premium has remained high, and the export window has been open. The TC prices at home and abroad have declined, causing smelting costs to face losses. Social inventory has been decreasing while supply pressure has not significantly eased. The fundamentals have turned from bearish to bullish, and zinc is currently undervalued. Despite fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the outlook for future consumption is optimistic [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Data - The LME zinc spot premium is $120.77 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton with a premium of 55 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton with a discount of 5 yuan per ton [1] Futures Data - On November 26, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,340 yuan per ton, closed at 22,355 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,212 lots, and the open interest was 100,730 lots. The highest price was 22,425 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,280 yuan per ton [2] Inventory Data - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 49,925 tons, an increase of 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-27 供需两弱格局延续，市场低位震荡 市场分析 1、11月26日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3043元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌17元/吨，跌幅 0.56%；持仓152279手，环比下跌1513手，成交187910手，环比增加27854手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2960—3470元/吨；华南，3050—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期原油价格走势偏弱，沥青成本端支撑不足，但在自身绝对价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号已开始出现。现货 方面，昨日山东地区沥青现货价格继续下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。山东地区沥青现货资源供应较为 充裕，施压沥青现货价格下行。从基本面来看，当前供需两弱格局延续，虽然终端需求逐步步入淡季，但在炼厂 开工率和产量出现明显下滑态势，部分炼厂转产渣油，沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位。不过目前冬储需求还没有 明确释放的迹象，市场情绪相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已有所缓解，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Mid - term, the overall oversupply pattern of LPG has not reversed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is still insufficient. The futures market may maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. For the unilateral strategy, it is neutral, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. There are no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - On November 26, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4350 - 4500 yuan/ton, Northeast market 4000 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4300 - 4450 yuan/ton, East China market 4170 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4420 - 4790 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4350 - 4400 yuan/ton, South China market 4250 - 4380 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 572 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 559 US dollars/ton, stable. In South China, the CIF price of propane was 564 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 551 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted prices of propane in East and South China increased by 21 and 22 yuan/ton respectively, while butane decreased by 2 yuan/ton in both regions [1]. - The external market continued to be in a volatile and strong state, and the prices were basically stable yesterday. High discounts increased the CIF cost, which supported the domestic spot and futures markets. Domestic spot prices generally rose steadily. Shandong's civil gas prices increased, while the mainstream transaction prices of civil gas and ether - after carbon four in East China remained stable. The market supply pressure was not large, and market participants were positive. Terminal demand was stable, and downstream users' purchasing sentiment was rational and stable [1]. - Recently, the LPG market showed a marginal tightening trend due to the decline in domestic refinery output and arrival volume, but the sustainability may be limited. Downstream chemical demand was suppressed by rising costs. On the other hand, Middle - East supply may increase after refinery maintenance, and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia is expected to increase in December [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing [2]. - Cross - period: None [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].