1月7日，COMEX白银库存录得13863.99吨，较上一日减少108.05吨；comex白银周三（1月7日）收报 98.06美元/盎司，下跌3.83%，comex白银价格日内最高上探至82.58美元/盎司，最低触及76.08美元/盎 司。 最新comex白银库存数据： 日期 comex白银库存量(吨) 增持/减持（吨） 2026-01-07 13863.99 -108.05 2026-01-06 13972.04 -9.66 美联储官员上个月连续第三次下调利率，但暗示短期内不保证会进一步降息。政策制定者在通胀和劳动 力市场前景上存在分歧；根据其最新预测的中值估计，他们预计2026年仅降息一次。 美联储理事米兰表示，美联储在2026年需要降息超过一个百分点，并认为当前的货币政策正在限制经济 增长。 米兰周二在福克斯商业频道露面时表示："我认为很难辩称政策已接近中性。我认为政策显然具有限制 性，正在阻碍经济发展。我认为今年降息100多个基点是合理的。" 【要闻回顾】 ...

尽管美元指数近期尝试企稳，但市场对美联储年内仍有两次降息空间的预期并未发生实质变化。偏鸽派 的利率路径定价，使美元难以形成持续上行趋势，也在一定程度上缓冲了黄金的下行压力。从交易层面 看，投资者更倾向于等待非农数据给出明确指引，在此之前，激进的方向性操作明显降温。 UNforex 1 月 8 日讯（分析师 Simon）在多项关键宏观事件集中落地之前，全球市场整体风险偏好保持 克制。周四欧洲交易时段，黄金连续第二日承压回落，在短线获利了结与观望情绪共同作用下，价格下 探至近三日低位区域。与此同时，美国最高法院即将就特朗普关税案作出裁决，也为本周后半段的资产 定价引入新的政策不确定性。 欧洲时段，黄金（XAU/USD）一度回落至 4415 美元附近，延续此前高位整理格局。市场普遍认为，本 轮回调更多属于非农就业数据公布前的仓位调整，而非基本面出现明显转向。在缺乏新的方向性驱动 下，部分短线资金选择锁定前期收益，使金价短线承压。不过，从整体环境看，地缘风险与宽松政策预 期仍构成支撑，限制了价格下行空间。 除经济数据外，美国最高法院即将就特朗普关税案作出裁决。摩根士丹利预计，最终结果更可能介于完 全放开与全面限制之间 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are preparing for the upcoming annual rebalancing of commodity indices, leading to significant sell-offs in gold and silver futures, causing prices to decline for the second consecutive day [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - Spot gold prices fell below $4,420 per ounce, with a nearly 1% drop in the previous trading day, while silver prices decreased over 3% to $76.11 per ounce [1]. - The rebalancing is expected to trigger approximately $6.8 billion in silver futures sell-offs, equivalent to 12% of the total open interest in COMEX silver futures [1][2]. - The scale of the fund flows during this rebalancing is unprecedented, according to Citigroup strategist Kenny Hu [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Gold and silver prices have not shown significant corrections despite recording their best annual performance since 1979, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs [2]. - In November, global central banks added a net 45 tons of gold, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month, which has been a crucial support for gold prices [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Traders are focusing on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, as weak data could strengthen expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, benefiting non-yielding precious metals [2]. - Despite short-term price pressures from the rebalancing, silver is expected to have stronger upward momentum in the long term [3].

Group 1 - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 103,200.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of 2.96% [1] - The market sentiment is neutral to slightly positive due to moderate domestic policy stimulus and weak U.S. economic data, while supply concerns from mining operations in Chile continue to support copper prices [1] - Short-term copper price expectations are for a range of 100,800-104,000 CNY/ton for the Shanghai copper main contract and 12,600-13,100 USD/ton for London copper [1] Group 2 - Guoxin Futures suggests that the short-term pullback in copper prices may be limited, with a medium to long-term outlook remaining strong, recommending investors to manage their positions carefully [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a collective rise, with expectations for this trend to continue due to a favorable global environment for the industry [1][4]. Short-term Analysis - The resource, electricity, and non-ferrous metal sectors are benefiting from supply shortages under the "anti-involution" logic, as indicated by recent government documents highlighting the impact of "involution" on profit margins and sustainable development [1][4]. - The government has proposed three measures: 1. Establishing production capacity ceilings for major metals like copper, lead, and zinc to control new capacity [1][4]. 2. Merging and restructuring strategic metals to enhance industry concentration and control over the supply chain [1][4]. 3. Encouraging companies to shift towards personalized, high-value-added products while maintaining competition in deep processing industries [1][4]. Mid-term Outlook - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans, market supply-demand imbalances, and advancements in electricity infrastructure are expected to positively influence the industry [1][4]. Long-term Perspective - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) relies heavily on computing power, with major countries like the U.S. and China increasing investments in computing centers. However, electricity shortages are limiting the growth of the AI industry [1][4]. - The demand for energy, electricity, and metals driven by AI computing centers has surpassed traditional supply-demand logic, intensifying electricity supply constraints and significantly increasing market demand for oil, gas, copper, and aluminum [1][4]. Future Trends - By 2026, the resource and non-ferrous metal sectors are expected to continue experiencing supply shortages, rising demand, stable prices, and profits concentrating upstream [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a decline, currently trading around $4429.99 per ounce, despite attempts to regain upward momentum supported by the 50-day moving average [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Global risk sentiment is showing signs of fatigue due to rising geopolitical tensions, which may provide support for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Mixed macroeconomic data from the U.S. has not significantly impacted market expectations for two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Traders are likely waiting for the U.S. non-farm payroll report to gain more insights into the Fed's rate cut path, indicating a cautious approach before making aggressive bearish bets on gold [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The bullish momentum for gold has weakened, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, but it remains above short-term moving averages and within a two-month recovery trend [2] - The support level at 4425, formed by the 100-hour simple moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, may provide some support for gold prices [2] - The MACD is below the signal line and zero, indicating enhanced bearish momentum, while the RSI is around 40, suggesting limited upward space [2]

汇通财经APP讯——在2026年开年之际，黄金市场迎来剧烈震荡。周四（1月8日）亚市早盘，现货黄金 周震荡微涨，目前交投于4460美元/盎司附近。周三（1月7日）现货黄金一度暴跌逾1.6%，最低触及 4423.49美元/盎司，最终收跌0.9%至4456.32美元附近，美国期金也下跌0.7%。这场回调看似突如其来， 却隐藏着多重力量的博弈：投资者获利了结、美国就业数据疲软、地缘政治风暴升级，以及中国央行的 持续囤金。黄金作为永恒的避险之王，究竟是短期调整，还是蓄势待发的新一轮上涨？让我们深入剖析 这场金市风云。 美元魅力的短暂回归。 与此同时，美元指数的走强也给以美元计价的黄金带来了压力。美元指数升至四周高位附近，徘徊于 98.74。 美元的强势，一方面源于市场在关键数据发布前的仓位调整，另一方面，虽然美国劳动力市场数据显示 出降温迹象（如职位空缺降幅超预期、ADP就业数据不及预期），但ISM服务业活动的意外回升，又给 市场带来了不确定性，使得美元并未因降息预期而单边下跌。这种复杂情绪支撑了美元的韧性，从而对 黄金构成了短期压制。 地缘政治风暴升级：特朗普强势干预推升不确定性 如果说经济数据提供了短期支撑，那么 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of lithium carbonate will experience range - bound fluctuations, and it is necessary to focus on marginal changes in supply and demand [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday morning, the main lithium carbonate contract opened more than 7% higher, reaching 147,000 yuan/ton, then fell back to around 140,000 yuan/ton, with 420,000 lots traded and 506,500 lots in open interest, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest [3]. - The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - to - short ratio slightly decreased, and some funds took profits [3]. - The average price of SMM electric carbon was 133,500 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract narrowed, but it was still at a negative basis [3]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: Last week, the weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% month - on - month, with further release of production capacity, and the cost - side support continued to strengthen as upstream raw material prices continued to rise [4]. - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. The demand for lithium iron phosphate was strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory depletion, benefiting from cost - effective terminal models and energy storage demand. The demand for ternary materials was weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached new highs, providing a solid support for lithium carbonate demand [4]. Inventory - Last week, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the inventory depletion slope slowed down. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, the same as the previous week. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, and the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged [4]. Policy - In 2026, the subsidy for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference formed a coordinated positive effect to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - In the short term, regulatory tightening was clear, and measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were taken to stabilize price fluctuations [4]. - On January 4th, the issuance of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" by the State Council, combined with news of mine复产, still provided upward price drive, but market sentiment ebbed, and some funds took profits [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Benefiting from the tightness of the spot market and the driving force of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, precious metal prices have been extremely strong recently. Silver still has room to strengthen in 2026, but in the first quarter, the Fed's monetary policy will slow down the rate - cut amplitude due to Powell's tenure, and there are certain negative factors at the macro - level. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of long - allocation after the silver price experiences a periodic correction [1]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Silver Spot Driving Force Will Continue in the First Quarter of This Year - In 2025, the London silver price rose by 146.5%, reaching a historical high of $83.62 per ounce. The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs increased from 26,050.7 tons to 29,362.5 tons, an increase of 3,311.8 tons, accounting for 10.35% of the annual silver output. The increase in ETF holdings led to a significant increase in spot demand, driving up the silver price. As of January 7, 2026, the silver spot premium reached 140 yuan per kilogram, and the overseas silver spot one - month implied lease rate was at a relatively high level [4]. - India's new silver mortgage loan regulations will be officially implemented on April 1, 2026. At the beginning of the year, the Indian silver premium has recovered. In October 2025, India's monthly silver import volume reached 1,785 tons, which was an important driving factor for the tightness of the London silver spot. It is expected that India's silver imports will support the demand side in the first quarter [5]. II. The Macro - environment in the First Quarter Will Have a Negative Impact on Precious Metals at High Prices, and Wait for Buying Opportunities after Price Corrections - The acceleration of the silver price has fully reflected the expected monetary policy of Hassett or Warsh's tenure. In the first quarter of 2026, the Fed under Powell's leadership will significantly slow down the pace of easing. The Fed's monetary policy stance is expected to tighten marginally, which is a negative factor for precious metal prices [15]. - The CME has raised the margin level for precious metal trading twice in the week of December 31. Similar margin increases in 2011 led to a significant decline in the silver price after it reached a historical high. Precious metals may face suppression in January 2026 and experience a short - term correction. However, this does not mean the end of the current precious metal bull cycle. The Trump administration has the motivation to further expand fiscal policy, and the Fed will enter a more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell leaves office. It is recommended to wait for a periodic correction and then allocate long positions [16].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 08 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 外媒报道称美国政府正在积极讨论获取格陵兰岛，而美联储理事米兰声称 2026 年美联储可大幅度降息，流动性溢价与地缘政治风险推动贵金属板块继续偏 强运行，隔夜伦敦白银收盘价再创新高，但伦敦黄金在 4500 美元/盎司附近持续 遭遇抛压，市场在 12 月非农就业数据公布前较为谨慎。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底 的回调已经充分释放贵金属内部积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重组、 美联储宽松货币政策、全球经济增长前景改善以及银铂对金饰替代需 ...