1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices broke through and moved upward this week. The market order trading remained resilient. The spread between refined and scrap copper was tight, and there were concerns about anode copper production in September and October. There was potential risk of a squeeze on positions. [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in the seasonal off - peak. The inventory was expected to decline in September. Attention should be paid to the reverse arbitrage between distant months and inside - outside. [1] - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply increased, and the demand was seasonally weak. The LME inventory decreased rapidly. In the short - term, it was expected to rebound, and in the long - term, a short - position configuration was recommended. [4] - Nickel supply remained at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the development of the riot situation in Indonesia. [6] - Stainless steel supply decreased due to some passive production cuts by steel mills. The demand was mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals remained weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the demonstration situation in Indonesia. [9] - Lead prices fluctuated this week. The supply was expected to be tight, and the demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level. It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level oscillation next week. [11] - Tin prices fluctuated upward this week, mainly driven by the news of smelter maintenance in Yunnan. The supply and demand were both weak in the short - term. It was recommended to wait and see in the short - term and hold at a low price close to the cost line in the long - term. [14] - The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was expected to accelerate. The short - term supply and demand were in a state of slight de - stocking, and the medium - and long - term outlook was in a cycle of bottom - level oscillation. [17] - Lithium carbonate prices declined this week. The core contradiction was the over - supply in the medium - and long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances on the resource side. The price had strong downward support. [19] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 20, and the LME inventory decreased by 100. [1] - **Fundamentals**: Market orders were resilient, the spread between refined and scrap copper was tight, and the anode copper processing fee declined. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly. [1] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the changes in the structure between September - October months and inside - outside, and the potential risk of a squeeze on positions. [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 90, and the LME inventory decreased by 1450. [1] - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, demand was in the seasonal off - peak in August, and the inventory was expected to decline in September. [1] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage between distant months and inside - outside. [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 50, the domestic social inventory was stable, and the LME inventory decreased by 275. [4] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the domestic demand was seasonally weak, and the overseas demand was average. The LME inventory decreased rapidly. [4] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it was expected to rebound, and it was recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, a short - position configuration was recommended. Hold the inside - outside positive arbitrage, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between months. [4][5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 300, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. [5][6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained at a high level, demand was weak, and the premium was stable. [6] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the development of the riot situation in Indonesia. [6] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 100, and the inventory in Xifu remained stable. [9] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased due to some passive production cuts by steel mills, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the cost was relatively stable. [9] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the development of the demonstration situation in Indonesia. [9] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the lead price fluctuated, and the LME inventory decreased by 1525. The exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons. [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to be tight, demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level. [11] - **Strategy**: It was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level oscillation next week, and it might test the 17,000 mark. [11] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the tin price fluctuated upward, and the LME inventory increased by 20. [14] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand were both weak in the short - term. There was a potential for a short - term mismatch between supply and demand in September - October. [14] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term and hold at a low price close to the cost line in the long - term. [14] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 25, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 371. [17] - **Fundamentals**: The production in Xinjiang was expected to accelerate, and the short - term supply and demand were in a state of slight de - stocking. [17] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, it was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom. [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From August 27 to September 2, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 850, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 810. [19] - **Fundamentals**: The core contradiction was the over - supply in the medium - and long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances on the resource side. The monthly balance turned to continuous de - stocking. [19] - **Strategy**: The price had strong downward support. [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to be weak in the short - term and have a sideways movement in the medium - term [1][2] - The trend strength of LLDPE is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures data: The closing price of L2601 was 7287, with a daily decline of 0.88%. The trading volume was 282,715, and the open interest increased by 26,798 [1] - Basis and spread data: The basis of the 01 contract was - 107 (previous day: - 158), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 12 (previous day: - 4) [1] - Spot price data: In North China, the price was 7180 yuan/ton (previous day: 7200); in East China, it was 7280 yuan/ton (previous day: 7300); in South China, it remained at 7400 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The market price of LLDPE decreased slightly, with a range of 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment was poor. However, at the end of the month, petrochemical companies stopped sales for settlement, and factory prices remained stable, supporting the market quotes. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand for purchases, and the trading volume was average [1] Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is continuously improving due to the upcoming peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports the PE price [2] - In recent days, the commodity sentiment has significantly declined, leading to a weak performance in futures [2] - In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August. The maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in East China [2] - Regarding inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a slight inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not significant. Therefore, PE may continue to trade in a range in the medium - term [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Coking Coal and Coke [2] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Views - For coking coal, with improved macro - expectations, slowed inventory depletion at mines, mixed spot transactions, and frequent regulatory pressures, the coking coal 2601 contract will oscillate [5] - For coke, with tight coke inventories in some regions and a game between the eighth round of price hikes and the first round of price cuts, the coke 2601 contract will oscillate [8] Summary by Directory 1. Price - Coking coal warehouse receipt is 1094, Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is 1182, coke warehouse receipt is 1608, and the overseas warehouse receipt price of Australian coal is 1518 [11] 2. Demand, Profit, and开工 - Coking plant's on - paper profit (01 contract) is 160, a week - on - week decrease of 20 [12] - Total coke daily output is 110.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.57 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 million tons [12] - Hot metal output is 240.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 19.24 million tons [12] - Coal washery output is 25.98 million tons (with changes in the coal washery sample data), a week - on - week increase of 0.26 million tons [12] 3. Inventory - Coke total inventory is 887.47 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 87.51 million tons [14] - Coking plant's coke inventory is 65.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.62 million tons [14] - Steel mill's coke inventory is 610.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 68.19 million tons [14] - Port inventory is 212.09 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.53 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 31.94 million tons [14] - Coking coal total inventory is 2048.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.26 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 187.63 million tons [16] - Coking plant's coking coal inventory is 961.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.14 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 109.58 million tons [16] - Steel mill's coking coal inventory is 811.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 77.39 million tons [16] - Port inventory is 275.35 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 86.98 tons [16] - Coal washery inventory is 289.48 million tons (with data sample changes), a week - on - week decrease of 5.36 million tons [16] 4. Import and Export - From January to July, coking coal imports were 62.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.47% [19] - From January to July, coke exports were 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.02% [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand decreased, with high inventory and weakening cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 in the 2511 contract [3][6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, and demand is showing a continuous recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 in the 2511 contract [7][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Supply last week was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase; demand was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease. Silicon inventory is high, organic silicon inventory is low, and aluminum alloy inventory is high. Xinjiang's 553 production has a loss, and cost support is weakening [6]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the spot price in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 575 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, major port inventory was flat, and sample enterprise inventory increased [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is increasing and near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the predicted August production is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase. Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production and inventory vary, and the industry average cost is 35,590 yuan/ton with a profit of 12,410 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the N - type dense material price was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historical high [10]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is recovering, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon Market Overview**: Presents price changes of various contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and cost - profit data of industrial silicon [16]. - **Polysilicon Market Overview**: Shows price changes of various contracts, production, inventory, and cost - profit data of polysilicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Displays the historical trends of industrial silicon basis and the spread between 421 and 553 grades [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Illustrates the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions [25]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Presents the cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 to 2025 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Covers DMC price, production, downstream price, import - export, and inventory trends [39][41][45]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Includes price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the aluminum alloy market [48][51][53]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Covers cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories in the polysilicon market [58][64][67][70][73]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: Displays the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [76]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: Shows trends in new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [77].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the demand for PP has improved month - on - month, and the cost side has also rebounded significantly. The market has stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded due to various unconfirmed information on supply - side policies. However, in the long - term, as maintenance devices resume production and new supply - side production capacity expands, supply pressure will increase. Considering the uncertainty of the cost side and policy directions, the short - term market is slightly stronger, but there is still significant long - term pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 7038, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 169,664, and the open interest increased by 12,407. The 01 - contract basis was - 158, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 21 [1]. - **Spot Price**: In the North China region, the spot price ranged from 6900 to 7030 yuan/ton; in the East China region, it was from 6880 to 7020 yuan/ton; and in the South China region, it was from 6850 to 7080 yuan/ton [1]. [Spot News] - PP futures fluctuated weakly, providing limited guidance to the spot market. Most producer prices remained stable. Traders adjusted their offers slightly based on inventory and costs. As the weekend approached, downstream factories were mostly on the sidelines, and overall market trading was average [2]. [Market Condition Analysis] - Short - term demand has improved, and the cost side has rebounded. The market has rebounded due to unconfirmed supply - side policy information. In the future, as maintenance devices resume production and new production capacity is added, supply pressure will increase. There is still great uncertainty on the cost side, and policies aim to counter deflation and excessive competition. The short - term market is slightly stronger, but long - term pressure remains high [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3].

Report Title - Manganese Silicon Weekly Report (August 18 - August 22) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the cost aspect, the centralized pre - procurement of northern alloy plants is nearing completion, port activity has decreased, high - price offers from miners are reducing, and the "buy on rising" sentiment in the market has increased with strong wait - and - see mood and cautious procurement. Coke has been stable recently, and the current spot cost has little change [2]. - Regarding the supply side, the overall start - up of the north and south markets has little fluctuation. Factory inventory pressure is temporarily not large as manufacturers were active in hedging or selling before. Due to the weak operation of the silicon - manganese futures market and cost inversion, alloy plants are reluctant to lower prices, and many are not quoting prices, with a rising bearish sentiment in the market [2]. - From the demand side, affected by the decline of the silicon - manganese futures market, the new steel tender prices have dropped significantly after the HeSteel tender, with acceptance pricing concentrated around 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton, and the acceptance of silicon - manganese alloy is average. The approaching military parade production restrictions in northern steel mills are expected to temporarily suppress the demand for silicon - manganese alloy [2]. - Overall, the sentiment in the silicon - manganese market has cooled slightly recently. The silicon - manganese price stabilized after a mid - week decline, and the future price trend still depends on the futures market fluctuations and changes in supply - demand fundamentals. It is predicted that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises and annual production in different regions such as Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas are presented [6][7] - **Production**: - Annual, weekly, and monthly production data of Chinese silicon - manganese are shown, along with the weekly start - up rate of silicon - manganese enterprises [7][10] - Monthly production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and daily average production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are provided [11][12] Manganese Silicon Demand - **Procurement Volume**: Monthly procurement volumes of silicon - manganese 6517 by enterprises such as HeSteel Group, Shagang Co., Ltd., and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., as well as the weekly demand in China are presented [13] - **Steel Tender Procurement Price**: Monthly procurement prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by enterprises like Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, and others are shown [15] - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Weekly data on the daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China are provided [17] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Monthly import and export quantities of ferromanganese - silicon in China are presented [19] Manganese Silicon Inventory - Weekly inventory data of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, and monthly average available days of inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are provided [21] Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: Monthly import volumes of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods are presented [23] - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: Weekly port inventory data of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available days of inventory in China are provided [25] - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly port inventory data of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port are presented [27] - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port are provided [28] - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of silicon - manganese in regions such as Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi are presented [29] Manganese Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of silicon - manganese in regions such as the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are presented [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term disk of rebar and iron ore is expected to operate weakly, with the previous rebar rebound nearing its end and entering an adjustment phase, and the iron ore disk following the coking coal and coke trends for adjustment [3][8][11] 3. Summary by Category Rebar - **Futures**: This week, the rebar 10 - contract declined slightly under the drive of increased short - position by main players, closing at 3188 yuan/ton on Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan or 0.78% [5] - **Spot**: The mainstream rebar prices in major regions decreased slightly, with the national average rebar price dropping 10 yuan to 3384 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 4.75%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 0.73 tons to 220.45 tons, still at a low level compared to the same period [5] - **Demand**: The building material trading volume decreased slightly, and the apparent consumption of rebar dropped significantly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.2 tons to 10.0 tons, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 20.85 tons to 189.94 tons [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to accumulate. The total rebar inventory increased by 30.51 tons to 587.19 tons [8] - **Basis**: The basis of rebar is expected to continue to widen, as the current basis is around the average value [8] Iron Ore - **Futures**: This week, the iron ore 01 - contract completed the roll - over, maintaining a range - bound trend. It closed at 776.0 yuan/ton on Friday, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.32% [8] - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the price of domestic iron ore concentrate rose steadily [8] - **Supply**: As of the 11th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2530.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons. The 45 - port arrivals totaled 2381.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 125.9 tons [11] - **Demand**: The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports was 334.67 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.82 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons [11] - **Inventory**: As of the 15th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to accumulate slightly, reaching 13819.27 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9136.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 123 tons [11] - **Basis**: The basis of iron ore is expected to continue to widen, as the current basis is at the average level [11]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - This week, the supply change was flat, and downstream industries had a phased restocking. By the end of the month, enterprise inventories decreased rapidly due to assessment plans, but social inventories increased due to imported arrivals. Overall, supply and demand remained loose [6] Summary by Directory Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate was 84.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14%; PE weekly output was 661,100 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14% [9] Demand - The weighted operating rate of PE downstream industries decreased seasonally, with the downstream weighted operating rate at 39.47%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.89% [9] Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory was 444,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.76%; social inventory was 568,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.23% [9] Upstream and Cost - No specific data provided in the summary part Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.29% month-on-month to 7,392 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 0.38% month-on-month to 7,351 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Spread - The basis was 41; the (9 - 1) spread was -45 [9]

1. Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, with an expected increase in production scheduling next week due to fewer planned maintenance activities. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025. The market outlook is bearish [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91%, 32.09%, and 76.92% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, while the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,690.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.20%, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in production scheduling [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 174 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, while social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. The overall cost is weakening, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the PVC market, including prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of different regions and methods. For example, the prices of various PVC products in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, and the production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods both increased [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures basis, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including the opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the moving average trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][31][33]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production, and profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production, as well as the daily and weekly production and maintenance volume trends of PVC [38][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Studies the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rate trends of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, infrastructure investment, and other macro - economic indicators [43][45][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory trends of exchange warrants, calcium carbide factory warehouses, ethylene factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spread trends in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

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