Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2510 oscillated weakly and closed at 7,138 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 5.98% month-on-month to 354,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.76% month-on-month to 74.98%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates of styrene increased to varying degrees last week; the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 6.52% month-on-month to 277,900 tons. In terms of inventory, the styrene factory inventory increased by 2.52% month-on-month to 220,300 tons, the inventory at East China ports decreased by 9.92% month-on-month to 1.59 million tons, and the inventory at South China ports increased by 14.74% month-on-month to 218,000 tons. This week, the 320,000-ton plant of Xinpu Chemical was restarted, and the impact of the short-term shutdown of Zibo Junchen's 500,000-ton plant subsided, so there is an expectation of an increase in production and capacity utilization. There are still large-scale plant maintenance plans in the second half of this month, but the 800,000-ton plant of Guangdong Petrochemical is expected to restart in the second half of the month, and the supply side is expected to see limited reduction in the future. This week, the load of EPS, PS, and ABS plants is expected to be slightly adjusted with little change. Affected by the weak procurement in the household appliance industry, currently ABS is slightly in the red and the inventory has continuously risen to a historical high. Attention should be paid to the transmission of future negative factors to the upstream. The inventory pressure of styrene remains high. In terms of cost, recent international oil prices have strengthened supported by geopolitical conflicts. Macroscopically, the talks among China, the US, and Spain have progressed smoothly, and a new round of policies to stabilize growth in key domestic industries is about to be introduced. Technically, for EB2510, pay attention to the support around 7,100 and the resistance around 7,220 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of styrene was 7,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the futures trading volume (active: trading volume) of styrene (EB) was 144,412 lots, a decrease of 20,911 lots; the closing price of the November contract of styrene was 7,152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88,537 yuan; the long position volume of the top 20 holders of styrene was not provided; the futures holding volume (active: trading volume) of styrene (EB) was 157,069 lots, a decrease of 29,390 lots; the net long position volume of the top 20 holders of styrene was -32,813 lots, an increase of 4,980 lots; the short position volume of the top 20 holders of styrene was 389,295 lots, a decrease of 7,071 lots; the total warehouse receipt quantity of styrene was 1,783 lots, an increase of 343 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,324 - 7,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the FOB South Korea intermediate price of styrene was 879 - 7,085 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 - 80 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price of styrene was 889 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the mainstream price of styrene in the Northeast region was 7,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of styrene in the South China region decreased by 15 yuan (specific price not provided); the mainstream price of styrene in the North China region (specific price not provided); the mainstream price of styrene in the East China region was 7,195 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 851 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price of ethylene was 751.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars; the spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 723.17 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf's FOB was 257 cents/gallon, a decrease of 1 cent; the spot price of pure benzene in Rotterdam's FOB was 662 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars; the market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the total operating rate of styrene was 74.98%, a decrease of 4.76%; the national inventory of styrene was 220,277 tons, an increase of 5,420 tons [2] Industry Situation - The total inventory of styrene at the main ports in East China was 159,000 tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons; the trade inventory of styrene at the main ports in East China was 78,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 61.02%, an increase of 8.5%; the operating rate of ABS was 70%, an increase of 1%; the operating rate of PS was 61.9%, an increase of 0.9%; the operating rate of UPR was 34%, an increase of 1%; the operating rate of styrene-butadiene rubber was 69.57%, an increase of 1.92% [2] Industry News - From September 5th to 11th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 5.98% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 74.98%, a decrease of 4.76% month-on-month. From September 5th to 11th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 277,900 tons, an increase of 6.52% from the previous period. As of September 11th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 220,300 tons, an increase of 2.52% from the previous cycle [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - China's domestic policy expectations are rising, with potential incremental policies and fiscal stimulus to address external pressures. The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed is likely to restart the interest rate cut cycle in September. Attention should be paid to the subsequent interest rate cut path and the performance of the US real estate market. In the commodity market, there are opportunities for multi - allocation of industrial products and precious metals [1]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. There are also "anti - involution" opportunities in some chemical products. Precious metals are suitable for multi - allocation as the Fed is about to restart the interest rate cut cycle [2]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China: In August, external pressure increased marginally, with weakened exports to the US but resilience in non - US exports. To address this, the government has frequently mentioned stable - growth policies. New social financing and loans increased in August, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low. The economic data in August showed characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and more policies are expected. The stock market had a good performance on September 16, with more than 3,500 stocks rising, and the robot concept stocks booming. Domestic commodity futures mostly rose [1]. - US: The August ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, with new orders improving and the price index falling again. The CPI increased year - on - year, while the PPI growth slowed. The new non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate in August were both worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. Retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, better than expected. The Fed is likely to restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, and attention is on the subsequent interest rate cut path. The US CBO significantly lowered the economic growth forecast for this year, and the Trump administration announced a reduction in Japanese automobile import tariffs [1]. Commodity Analysis - Black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved, but the marginal supply has slightly increased recently. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term as OPEC + plans to increase production in October. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some products is worth attention. Agricultural products are driven by short - term tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals and are affected by Sino - US negotiations. Precious metals are suitable for multi - allocation as the Fed is about to restart the interest rate cut cycle [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips [3]. Important News - The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption, including opening up the service industry at a high level and expanding open - pilot areas in relevant fields [1][5]. - Sino - US economic and trade talks in Madrid reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving the TikTok problem, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [1][5]. - The stock market on September 16 had a good performance, with more than 3,500 stocks rising, and the robot concept stocks booming. Gold prices reached a record high. US retail sales in August were unexpectedly strong, and the Fed's interest rate decision - making list was finalized. The Trump administration announced a reduction in Japanese automobile import tariffs [1][5].

Group 1: Key Insights on Macro Economy - In August, industrial added value and retail sales growth rates fell below expectations, with industrial added value growing by 5.2% year-on-year, and retail sales increasing by 3.4% year-on-year [6][8][9] - Fixed asset investment growth for January to August was only 0.5%, with private investment declining by 2.3% [7][9] - The report highlights the need for macro policies to stabilize growth, particularly in light of external uncertainties and domestic climate factors [6][9] Group 2: Real Estate Industry Analysis - In August, new home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.6% [10][11] - The sales area for residential properties in August was 57.44 million square meters, down 10.6% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2009 [17][18] - Real estate development investment in August was 672.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.5%, with new construction area down 20.3% [17][20] Group 3: Transportation Sector Insights - SF Holding reported a revenue of 146.858 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.26%, with net profit rising by 19.37% [25][26] - The company’s express logistics segment grew by 10.4%, while supply chain and international segments increased by 9.7% [27]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with increased expectations for enhanced growth-supporting policies following the release of August macroeconomic data [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The domestic bond futures market has strengthened, with the 10-year government bond futures main contract (T2512) recording four consecutive days of gains [1] - There is speculation that the central bank may restart bond purchases, which could be a significant factor in breaking the current deadlock in the bond market [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - Analysts suggest that sustainable actions like central bank bond purchases could be more beneficial for the bond market compared to one-time measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions [1] - The timing of the central bank's bond purchasing actions remains uncertain, and it is recommended to adopt a more cautious approach for large position operations based on this signal [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic market is experiencing mixed sentiments ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with increased expectations for enhanced growth-stabilizing policies following the release of August macroeconomic data [1] Group 1: Bond Market Trends - The domestic bond futures market saw a rise, with all but the 30-year government bond futures contracts increasing, particularly the 10-year government bond futures contract (T2512) which closed at 108 yuan, up 0.15% [2] - The yield on the 10-year government bond decreased by approximately 1.75 basis points to 1.780%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell to 2.075% [2] - Analysts suggest that the current fluctuations may indicate a potential new upward trend in the bond market, driven by a return to a focus on "stabilizing growth" policies [2][3] Group 2: Policy Expectations - There is speculation about the possibility of new incremental policies being introduced in the fourth quarter to support investment and consumption, as economic pressures remain [3] - The central bank's potential resumption of bond purchases is seen as a key variable that could break the current deadlock in the bond market, with expectations that it could lead to a sustained decline in interest rates [4] - The likelihood of the central bank restarting bond purchases is increasing, especially in light of fluctuating market sentiments and the need to stabilize bond prices [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The relationship between the stock and bond markets is crucial, with the current adjustment in the bond market primarily influenced by the relative attractiveness of stocks [6] - If the A-share market continues to perform well, it may exert upward pressure on bond yields, while a stabilization in the stock market could allow bond yields to realign with economic fundamentals [7] - Historical trends suggest that a bull market in stocks could positively impact consumption and credit data, potentially leading to a rise in bond yields if consumer expectations improve [7]

Group 1 - The core task remains to boost effective demand, highlighting the increasing necessity for stable growth policies in the fourth quarter [1][8] - The economic growth rate for China in the first half of the year was 5.3%, achieved amidst challenges such as global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1][2] - The August data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a narrowing decline in various economic indicators compared to July, suggesting a potential for policy intervention [2][3] Group 2 - The social financing scale increased by 25,693 billion yuan in August, but this represents a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan, indicating weak credit demand [3][4] - Government bond financing has decreased, and the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies needs to be supported in key quarters and months [5][6] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with infrastructure investment growing by 2% and real estate investment declining by 12.9% [6][7] Group 3 - The investment sentiment among enterprises remains subdued, correlating with the slow growth in fixed asset investment observed this year [4][6] - The retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with certain sectors like sports and home appliances performing well [7][8] - The necessity for structural monetary policies is increasing, with potential measures including the restart of government bond purchases to inject medium to long-term liquidity [8]

Economic Overview - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite challenges from global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1] - The necessity for stable growth policies in the fourth quarter is increasing, as indicated by the recent economic data [2] Financing and Credit - The growth rate of social financing decreased in August, with a total increment of 25,693 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan [3] - The demand for credit remains weak, with new loans amounting to 6,233 billion yuan in August, down by 4,178 billion yuan year-on-year [3][4] - Government bond financing has also seen a decline, indicating that the effectiveness of active fiscal policies needs to be supported in key quarters [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, with infrastructure investment growing by 2% and manufacturing investment by 5.1%, while real estate investment fell by 12.9% [6][7] - The government is focusing on stabilizing investment in key industries, particularly manufacturing, to support economic recovery [7] Consumption Patterns - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, although certain sectors like dining faced challenges [7][8] - The recovery in consumption is expected to take time, and effective demand needs to be stimulated [8] Policy Recommendations - There is a growing need for the introduction of stable growth policies in the fourth quarter, with potential measures including the issuance of special government bonds and the use of policy financial tools [2][8] - Structural policy tools may be accelerated to support key industries and foreign trade, while fiscal policies may need to be intensified [8]

Group 1 - The certainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is increasing, leading to an appreciation of the RMB and an accelerated inflow of foreign capital into Chinese assets [1][2] - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, particularly in the real estate sector, are expected to improve the external environment for equity assets, suggesting a bullish outlook [1][2] - Recommended sectors include media, computer technology, electrical equipment, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology [1][2] Group 2 - In the bond market, the recent marginal tightening of the funding environment has not significantly impacted the resilience of the equity market, with expectations of continued support from the central bank [2] - The basic economic indicators show a continuation of weak fundamentals, but the central bank's actions indicate a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2] - The A-share market is expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts and the favorable external environment [2] Group 3 - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to create a favorable financial condition for non-U.S. markets, including Hong Kong stocks [3] - Weak demand for crude oil is projected for 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices [4] - The anticipated easing of financial conditions before the Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to positively influence gold performance [5]

Economic Overview - August economic data continues to reflect insufficient total demand, with investment, consumption, and exports all slowing down, indicating increasing downward pressure on the economy[2] - Industrial added value in August year-on-year was 5.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from July, showing a cooling in industrial production[4] - Fixed asset investment in August saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, a record low, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments continuing to decline[6] - Real estate investment in August decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with new construction area down 20.3%[10] Financial Market Insights - Social financing growth in August was 8.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a potential peak in social financing for the year[14] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining at historical lows[14] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September[28] Inflation and Policy Outlook - The U.S. CPI in August rose to 2.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reflecting a controlled inflationary environment[23] - The core CPI remained stable at 3.1%, indicating limited upward pressure on core service prices[24] - The anticipated fiscal and monetary policy support in the U.S. is expected to bolster the stock market, which may continue to perform strongly[28]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,447, up 0.2% for the day and up 31.8% year-to-date[1] - The HSCEI also increased by 0.2% to 9,385, with a year-to-date gain of 28.7%[1] - The MSCI China index rose by 0.3% to 87, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 35.1%[1] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil price is at $67 per barrel, up 0.7% for the day but down 6.4% year-to-date[2] - Gold prices increased by 1.0% to $3,679 per ounce, with a significant year-to-date rise of 40.2%[2] - The BDI index surged by 111.7% year-to-date, indicating strong demand in shipping[2] Economic Indicators - The US Import Price Index showed a monthly change of 0.4% and a year-over-year change of -0.2%[3] - US Industrial Production decreased by 0.1% month-over-month, while capacity utilization was reported at 77.5%[3] - Initial Jobless Claims rose to 263,000, indicating a slight increase in unemployment claims[3] Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic demand growth weakened in August, primarily due to deteriorating investment conditions[5] - The impact of pro-growth policies has diminished, with concerns over exports and the property sector contributing to economic slowdown[6] - Further policy support is anticipated to address rising economic pressures, especially in the property market[6]