Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - The summer travel season has initiated, with Baidu migration index showing a year-on-year increase of 18.2% and domestic flights up by 2.9%[2] - The production of raw materials is recovering, supported by stable prices, with steel output and apparent demand increasing by 0.5% and 1.4% respectively this week[2][5] Group 2: Industrial Sector Insights - The production of five major steel varieties has increased, with glass and asphalt operating rates also improving[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization has shown marginal adjustments, while the textile polyester operating rate has rebounded[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities have seen a decline in average daily transaction area, with a month-on-month decrease noted at the beginning of July[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has decreased by 0.28% as of June 23[2] Group 4: Domestic Demand Indicators - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.032 million units in June, marking a 15% year-on-year growth[2] - Major home appliance retail sales increased by 10.9% year-on-year as of June 27, indicating sustained consumer demand[2] Group 5: External Demand and Risks - Port cargo throughput increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 3.1%[2] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[2][32]

Core Viewpoint - The overseas market is showing signs of stagflation risk, while the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious policy with unchanged expectations for two rate cuts within the year. Domestic policies continue to support economic stability, with retail sales growth reaching a new high, indicating marginal improvement in consumption. However, a significant decline in real estate investment remains a core drag on the economy [2][16]. Group 1: Price Trends - Recent domestic and international aluminum prices have shown strong fluctuations. LME aluminum 3M opened at $2454/ton, reaching a monthly high of $2560.5/ton, with a monthly increase of $107.5/ton (4.38%). Meanwhile, domestic Shanghai aluminum opened at 20115 CNY/ton, with a monthly increase of 350 CNY/ton (1.74%) [3]. - The near-month Shanghai aluminum contract is supported by extremely low inventory and high spot premiums, while the far-month contract is pressured by weak seasonal demand and excess alumina supply, leading to a pessimistic outlook for future prices [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's electrolytic aluminum production remains stable and high, with strong support from the passenger vehicle market, despite weak real estate data. The current spot price of electrolytic aluminum is in a premium state [7]. - The domestic bauxite market has seen a slight price increase, currently quoted at 508 CNY/ton, with supply tightening due to seasonal rains and environmental inspections [8]. - The average theoretical cost of aluminum is 18374.51 CNY/ton, with an average profit of 3476 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Inventory and Consumption - As of July 3, 2025, aluminum ingot social inventory stands at 456,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory is at 163,000 tons [10]. - In May 2025, the operating rate for aluminum plate and strip enterprises was 73.00%, while the operating rate for aluminum rod and wire enterprises was 63% [13]. - The automotive market shows strong growth, with May production and sales reaching 2.649 million and 2.686 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [14]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market outlook indicates that the traditional consumption will be suppressed by the approaching off-season, and the ongoing weakness in real estate will continue to be a challenge. However, low inventory levels and ongoing domestic growth policies are expected to provide some resilience to aluminum prices [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Views - The economic situation in China and the US is complex. In China, the economic sentiment has improved slightly, but there are still pressures in the manufacturing sector. In the US, the labor market is strong, but there are signs of weakness in retail sales and manufacturing [1][2]. - The "Big Beautiful" bill in the US has passed the House of Representatives and is expected to be signed into law by President Trump. The progress of trade negotiations among countries needs continuous attention [2]. - Macro - inflation trading is heating up, with the non - ferrous sector, gold, and the black sector being key areas of concern [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the May investment data is weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue. Exports are under pressure, while consumption shows resilience. The June official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI have all increased slightly, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. The new order index has entered the expansion range, and investment and consumption demand are expected to be released with the implementation of policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for possible further growth - stabilizing policies [1]. - In the US, the deadline for the suspension of tariffs is approaching. There are various trade negotiation situations among countries. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI has risen. The Fed Chairman has not ruled out the possibility of a July interest rate cut. The US House of Representatives has passed the "Big Beautiful" bill, which is expected to be signed by President Trump on July 4th. The US May retail sales decreased significantly, and the June ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract, but the June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, causing traders to abandon their bets on a July interest rate cut [1][2]. Macro - inflation Trading - Based on the 2018 tariff review, the tariff - adding events first lead to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the passage of the US "Big Beautiful" bill and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and gold related to inflation expectations are key areas of concern, and the black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [4]. To - do List - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026. The Iranian president has approved the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th and the verification of production increase [3].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.7%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.75%. Alibaba Health dropped nearly 5%, and AIA Group fell nearly 2% [1] - According to Zhongtai International, the technical bull market pattern for Hong Kong stocks is clear in the first half of the year, with expectations for continued strength in the market under supportive policies and improved US dollar liquidity in the second half of 2025 [1] - Earnings per share for the Hang Seng Index are projected to grow by 8.5% and 8.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities anticipates that the ongoing reform of the Hong Kong listing system will enhance the asset quality and liquidity of the market, with southbound capital likely to continue flowing into Hong Kong stocks [2] - The market is expected to show a trend of "oscillation upwards + structural differentiation" in the second half of the year, driven by macro policies focusing on high-quality development, technological innovation, and domestic demand [2] - Annual net inflow of southbound funds is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, continuously improving liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation in China shows mixed signals. In May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, and exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. With the approach of the Politburo meeting in July, there is a possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies. In the US, economic data such as retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and ADP employment are weak, increasing the possibility of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The progress of international trade negotiations among various countries is complex, and the "Big Beautiful" bill's passage in the US House of Representatives needs attention. Macro - inflation trading is heating up, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, gold, and black metals are worthy of attention [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, in May, investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be released in July, and the 800 billion yuan "Two - Major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. In June, China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all increased slightly, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. The central bank's net investment in the open market on June 26 reached 305.8 billion yuan, and attention should be paid to the possibility of further strengthening of growth - stabilizing policies in the July Politburo meeting [1]. International Trade Situation - The deadline for the US to suspend tariffs is approaching. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on multiple countries. The EU is willing to accept the US "benchmark national tax" but seeks industry tax exemptions and quotas. The EU trade negotiation representative will go to the US for talks. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, and Canada has cancelled the digital service tax. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5, and the harmonized CPI increased to 2% [2]. US Economic Data and Policy - The US Senate passed the tax - reform "Big Beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives will vote on it. In May, US retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month. The June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, and the ADP employment decreased by 33,000. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on the Fed's at least two interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed plans to relax key bank capital regulations, and stable - coin legislation may be introduced in mid - July [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff - adding events first lead to a decline in trading demand and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the US "Big Beautiful" bill's passage and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. Non - ferrous metal sectors with supply constraints and gold are key areas of concern, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations. In the energy sector, the EU will extend sanctions against Russia, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6 [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [5]. Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "Two - Major" construction projects in 2025. Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on Japan. Powell said that without Trump's tariff plan, the Fed would adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. The US House of Representatives will vote on the Trump tax - legislation draft on July 2. US economic data such as manufacturing PMI and ADP employment are weak. Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel has agreed to the conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire in Gaza. US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels last week [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize economic growth amid a complex external environment [1][2][3] - The Ministry of Finance has initiated the issuance of special bonds totaling 286 billion yuan, which includes 165 billion yuan for central financial institution capital injection and two long-term special bonds [1][2] - The issuance of super long-term special bonds is seen as a significant move to support investment, consumption, and stabilize expectations in the economy [2][3] Group 2 - The total planned issuance of central financial institution capital injection special bonds for 2025 is 500 billion yuan, with subsequent batches to follow [2] - In the first quarter, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.9% in March, indicating a positive recovery in investment and consumption [2][3] - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in liquidity support [3][4] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the acceleration of fiscal policy and the issuance of special bonds will enhance banks' ability to serve the real economy, potentially leveraging 4 trillion yuan in credit [3][4] - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is expected to create a favorable environment for the smooth issuance of government bonds [4] - The second quarter is anticipated to see an acceleration in government bond supply, particularly for super long-term special bonds and central financial institution capital injection bonds [4]

Group 1 - In May, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The increase in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the sustained implementation of growth-stabilizing policies, including monetary measures such as interest rate cuts [1][2] - The production index in May was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating accelerated manufacturing activity, while the new orders index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points [1] Group 2 - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods PMIs were 51.2% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing improvement [2] - The production expectation index for manufacturing enterprises was 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting stable confidence in market development [2] - New export orders and import indices were 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, both showing increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] Group 3 - From May 19 to May 25, monitored ports completed a cargo throughput of 27,134.8 million tons, a 2.8% increase, and a container throughput of 656.4 thousand TEUs, up 3.63% [3] - The rebound in export container freight indices and sustained high levels of port cargo throughput suggest a potential for continued export growth in May [3] - Analysts expect exports to maintain resilience in the second quarter, with high growth rates anticipated [3] Group 4 - The current international environment remains complex, necessitating continued efforts in stabilizing growth policies to solidify the economic recovery [3] - There is a call for increased government investment in public goods to boost market demand and corporate orders, which would support production and employment [3] - New incremental policies are expected to be introduced to further support economic stability and high-quality development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, focusing on sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [1][2]. Economic Outlook - A series of domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to support a moderate economic recovery, enhancing liquidity and providing strong support for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3]. - The market is anticipated to show a trend of oscillating upward, with improved supply-demand structures across various industries [3]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on structural opportunities and emerging sectors, with an emphasis on safety and strategic industries supported by policies [6][7]. - The approach of "digging deep for Alpha while waiting for Beta" is recommended to navigate the market [7]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as essential for China's development path [5][6]. - The AI and cloud computing sectors are highlighted as areas of significant opportunity, with a strong alignment between market pricing and fundamentals [7][8]. Specific Industry Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is compared to the semiconductor industry, characterized by substantial market potential and policy support, making it a long-term investment opportunity [8]. - The military industry is expected to experience an upward phase due to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the centenary of the army, providing additional growth signals [8]. - The domestic IP operation market is evolving, with companies establishing comprehensive industry chain layouts, indicating potential for overseas expansion [8].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations on July 2, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.13% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.38 trillion yuan, a decrease of 89.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Only 1,945 stocks rose, indicating a weak performance among individual stocks despite the indices not showing significant weakness [2] Sector Performance - Steel, photovoltaic, coal, and marine economy sectors showed strong gains, while military, brain-computer interface, CPO, and semiconductor sectors faced declines [2] - The steel sector saw a significant surge in trading volume, with stocks like Wujin Stainless Steel hitting the daily limit, and other companies such as Shougang Co., Shengde Xintai, and Liugang also rising [6][7] Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is projected to have an overall dividend yield of 3.82% in 2024, ranking fifth among all industries, but its dividend stability is weaker compared to "class debt dividends" like banks and utilities [11] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions, the steel industry is expected to benefit from "stabilizing growth" policies, leading to marginal improvements in demand [11] - There are structural investment opportunities in the steel sector, particularly for high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [12] Photovoltaic Sector Developments - The photovoltaic glass industry is planning collective production cuts of approximately 30% starting in July to address the current supply-demand imbalance [17] - This reduction is expected to enhance the competitive landscape, allowing leading companies to consolidate market share and improve overall industry conditions [17] Marine Economy Initiatives - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need for high-quality development in the marine economy, advocating for increased policy support and social capital involvement [18] - The marine economy is expected to develop in a "high-end, intelligent, and green" manner, with investment opportunities identified in deep-sea material research, equipment manufacturing, and smart applications [18]

铝类产业日报 2025/7/1 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,635.00 90.00 | +55.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +5.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,945.00 81.00 | -40.00↓ -3.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 283,099.00 | +10693.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 280,309.00 | -8600.00↓ | | ...