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郑眼看盘丨“降息”消息袭来,A股普涨
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-20 10:32
每经记者|郑步春 每经编辑|肖芮冬 周二A股温和上涨,截至收盘,上证综指涨0.38%至3380.48点;深综指涨0.84%,创业板综指涨1.04%, 科创50指数涨0.24%,北证50指数涨1.22%。全A总成交额为12112亿元,较周一的11189亿元有所放大。 部分大消费类个股领涨,如盲盒经济、宠物经济、美容等。此外,文教、日用化工、仓储物流、互联 网、医药等表现也相对较强。下跌个股较少,交通设施、化纤、航空等板块稍有下跌。 预计A股未来仍维持震荡格局,降息所带来的利好可能较难持续推升A股上涨。当物价低迷时,实质利 率就有可能上升,故名义利率的下调所带来的利好效应就会被对冲掉一部分。 在可预见的未来,个人觉得A股短期内大概率会有些结构性行情,系统性大涨的概率暂时比较低,除非 外围环境大幅改善或国内分配制度、医疗保障、教育等诸多限制消费方面的改革力度大幅增加。 操作方面,建议投资者继续观望或调仓,偏好短期操作的投资者不妨暂关注出口型个股机会,偏好中线 的投资者不妨更加重视科技股、消费类个股的潜在机会。 封面图片来源:视觉中国-VCG211478322341 汇市方面,上周冲高回落的美元于本周进一步下滑,周一 ...
读研报 | 如何理解再创新高的微盘股?
中泰证券资管· 2025-05-20 08:38
微盘股能在今年再创新高,恐怕在很多人的意料之外。 参考中邮证券金工团队的统计,近一季万得微盘股指数上涨17.15%,在38个宽基指数当中排名第1;近一年万得微盘股指数上涨64.6%,在38个宽基 指数当中排名第2。不仅如此,万得微盘股指数还连续5个月出现月度级别的K线上涨。 那么,该如何理解当下再创新高的微盘股呢? 有人觉得微盘股再创新高的背后,是 流动性充裕 的结构性行情。华创证券的报告中提到,小盘成长风格(科创50、北证50、国证2000、微盘股)有 望受益于更快落地的货币宽松。4月剩余流动性【M2同比-社融存量(剔除股权融资和政府债券)同比】从0.98%升至1.86%。叠加央行优化两项支持 资本市场的货币政策工具、支持中央汇金公司发挥好类"平准基金"两项政策支持股市流动性,当下的小盘成长行情得到进一步加强。 参与人多的地方,关注点就得聚焦到资金面上。事实上,这不是小编第一次涉足微盘股话题,在过去的内容中,我们曾和大家探讨过 (请戳这里) ,微盘股策略赚的不是基本面的钱,而是估值的提升。此前国海证券的报告中通过分解股票收益为PE(市盈率)乘以EPS(每股收益),发现小微 也有人将此归因为 资金属性 所致。 ...
市场有望延续结构性行情,500质量成长ETF(560500)盘中上涨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 03:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the market is expected to experience a steady upward trend supported by policy measures and liquidity easing, with a focus on technology growth and consumer recovery as the main driving forces [1][2] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized timely interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which are expected to release liquidity through structural tools, thereby solidifying the market bottom [1] - In Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders of A-shares turned positive year-on-year, with significant recovery in the profitability of small and medium-sized stocks, particularly in the TMT and consumer sectors [1] Group 2 - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index consists of 100 listed companies selected for their high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow, providing diverse investment options for investors [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index accounted for 24.07% of the index, with notable companies including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Ninebot [2][4] - The 500 Quality Growth ETF closely tracks the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index, offering investors a way to invest in these high-quality growth companies [2][4]
5月13日A股走势分析及策略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 00:53
上证指数站稳5日线,MACD红柱放大,短期趋势确实强。但30分钟级别顶背离已经出现三次,就像开车遇到急转弯,得踩踩刹车。历史经验告诉我们,快 速突破后如果量能跟不上,5%-8%的回撤很正常。所以咱们得盯紧量能——今天要是早盘半小时成交量破3000亿,指数冲3400点才有戏;要是缩量冲高,该 减仓就得减。 第三,聪明钱在悄悄换赛道 老铁们好,这里是帮主郑重每天的盘前策略时间。老规矩,咱们不整虚的,直接上干货,拆解这波行情里的机会和门道。 先说个大实话:昨天A股这根放量长阳,成交额1.3万亿,北向资金狂买118亿,确实够劲爆!但别急着喊牛市,咱们得看清楚这波行情的底层逻辑。 军工板块集体爆发不是偶然,成飞概念股涨停潮背后,是政策对高端制造的持续加码。科技这边更热闹,人形机器人、AI算力、低空经济这些赛道全线开 花,消费电子更是被中美关税松绑的消息点燃。但别光看热闹,得看资金往哪流——北向资金昨天118亿真金白银砸向科技成长股,说明外资对中国产业升 级的信心回来了。 第二,技术面强但别贪杯 2. 死磕主线:科技成长(AI算力、机器人)、新能源(固态电池)、消费电子(关税松绑受益股)这三个方向,重点看有技术突破的龙头 ...
A500指数ETF(159351)涨超0.6%,阳光电源涨超7%,机构:市场有望重回活跃态势
Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares opened higher on May 12, with the A500 Index ETF (159351) rising by 0.63% and a total transaction volume of 184 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] - Key constituent stocks such as Yangguang Electric and Lens Technology saw significant gains, with increases exceeding 7% and 6% respectively [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decline of 0.4% to an increase of 0.1% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, indicating stable inflation [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term market conditions are expected to remain volatile, but there are signs of marginal improvement in risk appetite, with overall index risks considered manageable [2] - The market is anticipated to regain activity, driven by significant policy announcements and improved fundamentals, leading to a reduction in market uncertainties [3]
银河证券:预计市场将维持区间震荡格局 建议关注三大方向
news flash· 2025-05-11 23:57
银河证券认为,短期来看,随着业绩验证期影响减退,产业投资趋势有望回归,市场或将呈现结构性行 情。不过,当前中美贸易谈判仍处于关键阶段,最终结果尚未尘埃落定,后续谈判进展对市场预期的扰 动仍需密切关注。同时,关税对国内经济修复节奏的影响也将逐步显现,预计市场将维持区间震荡格 局。配置上,建议关注三大方向:第一,外部环境不确定性加大,业绩确定性相对较强、股息回报整体 稳定的红利板块具备防御属性。第二,A股市场"科技叙事"逻辑明晰,建议关注后续产业趋势的催化机 会,近期全球地缘冲突的升级或对军工板块行情构成支撑。第三,关注大消费板块的配置机会,政策密 集支持服务消费,"两新"政策扩围提质,带动行情修复。 ...
年内公募自购金额超80亿元
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that fund companies, including WFC Fund, are showing confidence in the Chinese capital market by investing their own funds into their funds, indicating a belief in the current market valuation levels being relatively reasonable [1][2] - WFC Fund announced that it and its senior management will invest no less than 20 million yuan, while the proposed fund managers will invest no less than 5 million yuan, totaling at least 25 million yuan for the subscription of the WFC Balanced Investment Mixed Securities Investment Fund [1] - As of May 6, 2023, a total of 103 public fund institutions have made 533 self-purchases this year, with a net subscription amount of 8.32 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Money market funds have become the main focus of self-purchases, with 136 self-purchases and a net subscription amount of 4.895 billion yuan, accounting for 58.83% of the total self-purchase amount [1] - Bond funds followed, with 99 self-purchases and a net subscription amount of 1.206 billion yuan, making up 14.49% of the total [1] - Equity and mixed funds have similar self-purchase amounts, with 114 and 149 self-purchases respectively, and net subscription amounts of 905 million yuan and 822 million yuan, accounting for 10.87% and 9.88% of the total [1][2] Group 3 - Other fund types such as FOF, QDII, and alternative investment funds have also seen self-purchases this year, with net subscription amounts of 415 million yuan, 50 million yuan, and 27 million yuan respectively [2] - Industry experts suggest that the self-purchases by public fund institutions indicate a positive outlook for the market, particularly in the context of structural opportunities expected in May [2] - The recommendation for May includes focusing on technology sectors, driven by emerging industries, policy changes, improved risk appetite, and expectations of liquidity easing [2]
四大证券报精华摘要:5月6日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 01:37
Group 1 - A-share market is expected to experience a volatile recovery in May, with a focus on structural opportunities, particularly in technology growth and domestic consumption [1][6] - The performance of A-shares is likely to improve post-holiday, driven by a rebound in global markets and a decrease in tariff impacts [2][6][7] - The automotive sector is seeing various promotional activities, with some models offering discounts exceeding 50,000 yuan, which may stimulate consumption in the second quarter [3] Group 2 - Over 74% of listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reported profits for 2024, indicating resilience in corporate performance [4][13] - The financial sector achieved a net profit of 2.7 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 10.3% year-on-year growth [4] - The net inflow of funds into ETFs has reached approximately 270 billion yuan this year, highlighting their role in stabilizing the market [5] Group 3 - The trend of data assets being included in financial statements is accelerating, with the number of participating companies increasing from 17 to 92 and the disclosed scale rising to 2.495 billion yuan [11] - More than 40 A-share companies are planning to list in Hong Kong, driven by policy support and the attractiveness of the Hong Kong market [12] Group 4 - Recent institutional research has focused on export-oriented companies and their strategies to cope with external pressures, emphasizing the importance of core competitiveness [10] - The overall revenue of A-share listed companies reached approximately 72 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a steady improvement in performance [13]
PMI回到去年8月
HUAXI Securities· 2025-04-30 11:20
[Table_Title] PMI 回到去年 8 月 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 4 月 30 日,统计局发布 4 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.0%,预期 49.8%,前值 50.5%。非制造业 PMI 50.4%, 前值 50.8%。数据发布后, 10 年、30 年国债收益率短时下行 0.5bp 又被抹平,日内窄幅震荡。同时 A 股窄幅 波动,红利和周期品种行情承压,科技品种走强。 关注以下几个方面: 第一,受外部冲击影响,4 月 PMI 回落到去年 8 月附近。统计局称受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠 加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响,4 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0%,接近去年 8 月的 49.1%。拆分来看,新订单 和生产分项是主要拖累,分别较前月下滑 2.6 和 2.8 个百分点,拖累制造业 PMI 下滑 0.8、0.7 个百分点。新出 口订单回落 4.3 个百分点至 44.7%,是 2023 年初以来最低值。从业人员、供应商配送时间和原材料库存较前月 变化较小,对制造业变动影响均不到 0.1 个百分点。参考去年 8 月 PMI公 ...
【机构策略】预计短期市场仍以区间震荡为主
中原证券认为,周二A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理,早盘股指低开后震荡上行,盘中沪指在3294点 附近遭遇阻力,午后股指维持震荡,盘中汽车零部件、机器人、互联网服务以及通用设备等行业表现较 好;电力、保险、航运港口以及贵金属等行业表现较弱,沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡整理的运行特征。 4月是年报和一季报密集披露期,市场将从预期驱动转向基本面验证。预计短期市场仍以区间震荡为 主,但政策托底与经济韧性为结构性机会提供支撑。市场或延续政策与业绩双轮驱动的结构性行情,投 资者需平衡防御与成长,聚焦业绩确定性高、政策催化明确的板块,同时警惕外部风险引发的短期波 动。 东莞证券认为,周二,市场全天震荡调整,三大指数缩量微跌。海外方面,本周美国将公布3月核心 PCE和4月非农就业等重要经济数据,或将一定程度上影响美国经济预期走势及贸易谈判进程。国内方 面,五一假期将近,节前资金避险情绪有所提升,部分资金选择在短期获利离场,市场继续缩量。随着 本周财报披露季结束,叠加海外冲击逐渐减弱,A股市场将进入一个相对均衡的阶段。但另一方面,指 数目前处于相对纠结的位置,指数上方有压力,同时估值不存在超跌情况,短期缺乏热点催化,市场或 将继续 ...