Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 13, the US-Iran nuclear negotiation was hopeless, Israel attacked Iran, and the Middle East turmoil escalated with a sharp rise in crude oil prices. After 10 days, oil price growth weakened and gold price first soared then declined, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran vowed to retaliate, which may boost gold prices. In the long run, gold prices have been oscillating at a high level since the second quarter, facing significant upward pressure. If the Middle East situation is under control, gold prices may remain under pressure in the third quarter due to the increased market risk appetite after the relaxation of US tariff policies [3][26] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report includes a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but no specific trend description is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From June 13 to June 20, COMEX gold decreased by 1.98% from 3,452.60 to 3,384.40; COMEX silver decreased by 1.15% from 36.37 to 35.95; SHFE gold主力 decreased by 1.99% from 794.36 to 778.58; SHFE silver主力 decreased by 1.44% from 8,791.00 to 8,664.00; the US dollar index increased by 0.63% from 98.15 to 98.76; the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.14% from 7.19 to 7.18; the 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.08 from 2.13 to 2.05; the S&P 500 decreased by 0.15% from 5,976.97 to 5,967.84; the US crude oil continuous increased by 2.49% from 73.18 to 75.00; the COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.83% from 94.93 to 94.14; the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.55% from 90.36 to 89.86; the SPDR gold ETF increased by 9.75 from 940.49 to 950.24; the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.76 from 436.00 to 437.76 [8] 2. Gold Price Soars and Then Declines - Last week, the gold price soared and then declined, while the US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, crude oil showed weak upward momentum, and the three major US stock indexes did not have significant declines, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. Over the weekend, the Middle East situation heated up, which is beneficial to the gold price. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and on the day after the Fed's June interest rate meeting, Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed should cut interest rates as early as July [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long non-commercial positions on COMEX have been rising. As of June 10, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 987, short positions decreased by 563, and net long positions decreased by 424. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to rise, and silver ETFs have risen significantly. In early June, silver prices rose sharply with obvious ETF position increases, showing a combination of price and volume increases. Silver broke through the May 2024 high, and short-term capital attention has rapidly increased, expected to remain strong [17] - Since late April, the gold price soared and then declined, and the gold-silver ratio also declined from a high level. Silver benefited from its precious metal attribute and had a short-term supplementary increase. It broke through the one-year oscillation high, and short-term capital attention increased with strong upward momentum. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [20] - Since June, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has decreased slightly overall [22] 4. Conclusion - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the recent Middle East situation changes may boost gold prices, but in the long run, gold prices face upward pressure and may remain under pressure in the third quarter if the Middle East situation is controllable [3][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the urgent need for global monetary policy coordination in the context of rising inflation, high debt, and increasing international trade frictions, which are reshaping global supply chains and economic growth dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges in Global Monetary Policy Coordination - Significant differences in macroeconomic conditions among countries lead to a "self-governing" approach to monetary policy, complicating unified macroeconomic control [2]. - The spillover effects of major economies' monetary policies are increasingly impacting global economic patterns, with potential for rapid transmission through financial crises [2][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies exacerbates global economic instability, affecting confidence in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury securities [3]. Group 2: The Role of Alternative Currencies and Market Integration - In light of declining confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities, there is a call to develop alternative currency support systems, with China’s role being particularly highlighted [4]. - Europe is urged to address its strategic vulnerabilities by creating a more integrated market, such as a unified European debt market, to provide reliable investment alternatives to U.S. Treasuries [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Central Bank Policies - Central banks must consider multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, climate change, and technological advancements, which pose significant challenges to their policy objectives [5][6]. - The need for enhanced communication and coordination among central banks is emphasized to stabilize inflation expectations and address emerging risks [6]. Group 4: Institutional Framework for Coordination - There is a lack of a formal institution to coordinate global macroeconomic or monetary policies, with existing platforms like the IMF facing limitations in their decision-making processes [7]. - Suggestions include enhancing the G20's mechanisms and possibly establishing a dedicated monetary policy department to improve the effectiveness of global policy coordination [7].

Summary of the Conference Call for Giant Technology Company Overview - **Company**: Giant Technology - **Industry**: Mechanical and Consumer Goods Key Points and Arguments Expansion and Production Capacity - Giant Technology is establishing production bases in Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam, with plans to expand to Malaysia to avoid US tariffs and increase downstream customer share switching. By 2027, Southeast Asia's production capacity is expected to grow significantly, enhancing future growth certainty [2][5] Impact of US Real Estate Market - The current low sales of second-hand homes in the US indicate a high probability of stabilizing or even increasing demand. For low-value consumables, price increases have minimal impact on purchasing behavior, supporting the performance growth of Giant Technology [2][6] Price Adjustments and Demand - Price adjustments made in April and May did not significantly affect terminal demand. Downstream customers are switching capacities to companies like Giant Technology, allowing for independent revenue growth from industry beta fluctuations [2][8] Tariff Policy and Market Conditions - The clarity of Trump's tariff policy suggests that overseas market tax rates may not exceed 25%, keeping terminal price increases manageable. The annual CPI increase of 2-3% for consumer goods indicates that a 10% price increase for low-value products is acceptable, thus limiting concerns over overall demand [2][9] Performance and Future Growth - Despite the impact of high tariffs in April and May, Giant Technology still achieved year-on-year revenue growth in Q2. The company is expected to enter a profit release period in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, with strong performance certainty for 2025 and 2026 [4][11] Competitive Advantage through Global Diversification - The global diversification of production bases allows Giant Technology to meet the diverse supply chain needs of customers while reducing cost pressures and increasing profitability. The planned significant growth in Southeast Asia's production capacity by 2027 further solidifies its competitive position [7][12] Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook - Investors are not overly concerned about price increases affecting consumer behavior, as evidenced by stable demand in the US market. The company’s ability to adapt to tariff impacts and demand changes presents a favorable opportunity for growth [8][10] Additional Important Insights - The mechanical industry leaders are underperforming compared to consumer goods companies due to uncertainties related to tariff impacts on performance predictability. In contrast, consumer goods companies exhibit stronger performance certainty due to differing product and industry cycles [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. tariff policy on global economic stability and the need for coordinated monetary policies among countries to mitigate risks and foster a favorable financial environment for global economic growth [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. government's significant increase in tariffs has caused major disruptions to the global economic order, affecting investment and consumption decisions worldwide, and increasing financial market volatility [2][3]. - The uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs has led to pressure on traditionally safe assets, prompting central banks to focus on medium-term goals to ensure financial market stability [3][5]. - The tariff policy undermines the global multilateral trade system, leading to widespread uncertainty and potentially restructuring global trade patterns, which could adversely affect macroeconomic conditions in various countries [3][4]. Group 2: Need for Monetary Policy Coordination - Strengthening coordination of monetary policies among countries is essential to effectively respond to tariff shocks and maintain financial stability [4][5]. - The current state of global monetary policy coordination is lacking, with no single institution responsible for overseeing it, and a need for more research and consensus-building [6]. - Major central banks should utilize tools like currency swap agreements to provide sufficient liquidity in times of uncertainty and crisis [5][6]. Group 3: Future of the International Monetary System - The weakening of the dollar's credibility due to rising U.S. fiscal deficits and trade protectionism suggests a shift towards a more diversified international monetary system [7][8]. - The internationalization of currencies like the renminbi and euro is seen as a step towards reducing reliance on the dollar and promoting a competitive environment among major currencies [7][8]. - The potential establishment of a platform by the IMF for issuing a supranational currency based on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is proposed as a way to enhance the stability of the global monetary system [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The global economic growth forecast has been downgraded by several international institutions, primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, which are seen as a significant risk to global economic stability [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The World Bank has reduced its 2025 global economic growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, affecting nearly 70% of economies [1][2]. - Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.2% this year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, with the U.S. growth forecast cut from 2.3% to 1.4% [2]. - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow by 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - The uncertainty from U.S. trade policies is identified as a major factor contributing to the global economic slowdown, with trade barriers and an unstable policy environment causing significant disruptions [4][5]. - The actual tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on imports have reached their highest levels since 1938, exacerbating economic headwinds [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the U.S. tariff measures as a "major negative shock" to the global economy [5]. Group 3: Recommendations and Responses - The OECD suggests that countries should work together to mitigate uncertainty, emphasizing the need to avoid further trade fragmentation and barriers [6]. - The EU Commission indicates that easing trade tensions with the U.S. could support economic growth, alongside reforms to enhance competitiveness [6]. - Increased dialogue in trade could help alleviate uncertainties, with signs of adaptation in global supply chains [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in three years due to US tariff policies and economic uncertainty, and it is expected to remain weak over the next 12 months [1] - As of mid-June, the dollar index has dropped nearly 10% this year, with the CIO noting that harsher-than-expected US tariff measures have undermined confidence in the "American exceptionalism" narrative [1] - The report indicates that despite previous support from expansionary fiscal policies and tightening monetary policies, the situation is changing as US government spending is constrained and trade war uncertainties persist [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should adopt a strategy of "reduce, hedge, and diversify" to manage dollar risk exposure, predicting that the euro to dollar exchange rate could rise to 1.20 by June 2026 [1] - Technical analysis shows signs of stabilization for the dollar, with a potential bullish divergence indicated by the relative strength index (RSI) despite the dollar hitting new lows [2] - Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, with current bearish sentiment towards the dollar reaching extreme levels not seen in the past 20 years, which could signal a market correction [2] Group 3 - The historical high correlation between the dollar and US Treasury yields has weakened, with the correlation coefficient dropping from 0.86 to 0.42 this year, suggesting potential for a dollar rebound if the relationship normalizes [2] - The dollar index is close to breaking a key downward trend line, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a significant improvement in the technical outlook [2] - If the dollar falls below the June 12 closing price of 97.92 and the RSI weakens again, expectations for a dollar rebound may be dashed, indicating a critical moment for market direction [3]

Economic Performance - In May, the economic growth rate is estimated to be around 5.5%, consistent with the previous month, indicating a stable economic performance[16] - The demand improvement is primarily driven by consumption, while investment and exports show marginal slowdown, aligning with prior assessments[16] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating a recovery in consumer spending[21] - Policy-driven consumption, particularly in home appliances and cultural products, showed significant growth rates of 53% and 30.5% respectively, contributing to the overall retail sales increase[25] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth remains at 3.7% year-on-year, below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.7%[32] - Manufacturing investment growth is at 8.5%, reflecting a marginal decrease, influenced by uncertainties in the market due to U.S. tariff policies[48] U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to affect market sentiment and investment decisions, with expectations of a slight economic slowdown in Q2 to around 5.2%-5.3%[3] - The potential for a recovery in market sentiment is anticipated in Q3 if U.S. tariff policies stabilize or improve, possibly leading to new investment opportunities[3] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market remains under pressure, with property sales declining by 4.41% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is showing signs of slowing[35] - The average sales price of commercial housing in May was 10,004.44 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating a need for price stabilization[35] Future Outlook - If U.S.-China trade negotiations yield positive results, there could be a restoration of market risk appetite, benefiting exports and overall economic recovery[57] - The upcoming July meeting of the Central Political Bureau is critical for observing potential policies aimed at stabilizing growth amid external pressures[58]

Economic Performance - In May, the economic growth rate is estimated to be around 5.5%, consistent with the previous month[11] - Demand improvement is primarily driven by consumption, while investment and exports show marginal slowdown[11] - The supply side shows marginal improvement mainly due to a recovery in service production[11] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and benefiting from holiday effects and consumption policies[13] - Policy-driven consumption categories, such as home appliances and communication equipment, showed significant growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively[17] - The optimization of the tax refund policy for outbound tourists led to a 116% increase in tax refund applications in the first month of implementation[20] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to May is 3.7%, below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.7%[23] - Manufacturing investment growth in May was 8.5%, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[36] - Real estate sales area decreased by 3.62% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market[26] External Factors - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to impact market sentiment and investment decisions[2] - If the 90-day tariff exemption ends without further negotiations, the tariff rate could rise to 54%, exacerbating external demand shocks[5] - The potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could create new investment opportunities in the capital market[2]

Group 1: Economic Financing Demand - The financing demand structure of the real economy is optimizing, with a marginal improvement expected. In May, new RMB loans under the social financing (社融) measure amounted to 596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 223.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards bond financing and debt repayment funds replacing credit financing[12] - The issuance of special bonds accelerated in May, with a total issuance of 763.31 billion yuan, which may have contributed to the stability of financing demand in the real economy[13] - M1 growth rate in May was 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a marginal improvement in economic activity[19] Group 2: Deposit and Loan Trends - In May, new RMB deposits reached 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 50 billion yuan and corporate deposits increasing by 382.4 billion yuan[17] - The growth of loans and deposits showed divergence, with new loans of 620 billion yuan in May, significantly lower than the increase in deposits, suggesting a weakening of the credit creation mechanism[17] - The M1 and M2 year-on-year growth rate gap narrowed to -5.6%, indicating an improvement in economic activity, although uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies remain high[20] Group 3: Macro Environment and Risks - The U.S. tariff policy continues to be a major concern affecting the macroeconomic environment, with no significant impact on inflation observed yet[5] - The global economic landscape shows signs of weak recovery in Europe, while Japan faces challenges due to high inflation, influenced by U.S. tariff policies[5] - Risks include potential escalation of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On June 16, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,584, up 2.35%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,400, down 30 yuan/ton. The SF2509 contract closed at 5,292, up 2.04%, and the Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,190, up 50 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to low capacity utilization rates, but overall inventory remains high. The cost side shows an increase in imported manganese ore port inventory, and downstream pig iron production has peaked and declined. The raw - material coal has stopped falling and rebounded, improving the pessimistic sentiment. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 430 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and - 170 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese; the Ningxia spot profit is - 430 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and - 400 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and tender prices continue to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages. The market should be treated as oscillating [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 5,584 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,292 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 617,093 hands, down 30,190 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 432,533 hands, down 3,514 hands. - The net position of the top 20 in SM was - 26,834 hands, down 1,165 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 24,273 hands, down 2,222 hands. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 4 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was - 44 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. - SM仓单 was 96,168 sheets, down 1,783 sheets; SF仓单 was 15,193 sheets, down 35 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,060 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - The manganese - silicon index average was 5,423 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 102 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The SM主力合约基差 was - 184 yuan/ton, down 138 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 31 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Manganese ore port inventory was 440.10 million tons, up 19.80 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise capacity utilization rate was 35.30%, up 0.27%; the silicon - iron enterprise capacity utilization rate was 31.35%, down 1.43%. - Manganese - silicon supply was 173,390 tons, up 1,505 tons; silicon - iron supply was 95,100 tons, down 2,200 tons. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventory was 195,900 tons, up 9,300 tons; silicon - iron manufacturers' inventory was 69,900 tons, up 2,200 tons. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon - iron was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 122,153 tons, down 3,640 tons; the demand for silicon - iron from the five major steel types was 19,607.80 tons, down 716.90 tons. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 83.39%, down 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.56%, down 0.07%. - The monthly crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, up 0.531 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On June 13, US President Trump approved Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel. - Trump said Iran and Israel should reach an agreement and was willing to accept Putin as a mediator. - Xu Changming said that the demand for domestic passenger cars showed different stage - type characteristics before and after 2023, with consumption upgrading before 2023 and downgrading in 2024. The sales of models above 300,000 yuan had negative growth in the past two years, while the sales of models below 100,000 yuan increased by 51% in the first five months of this year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On June 16, the silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,292, up 2.04%, and the Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,190, up 50 yuan/ton. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased sharply, and factors such as the US tariff policy, fiscal gap, and the weakening of the US dollar and US debt credit have pushed up the gold price. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the cost support has weakened due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia, and the steel demand expectation is still weak. - On June 16, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5,584, up 2.35%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,400, down 30 yuan/ton. At the end of May, the broad - money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% year - on - year; the narrow - money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% year - on - year. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to low capacity utilization rates, but overall inventory remains high. The cost side shows an increase in imported manganese ore port inventory, and downstream pig iron production has peaked and declined. The raw - material coal has stopped falling and rebounded, improving the pessimistic sentiment. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and tender prices continue to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as oscillating [2].