每日晨报 2025年6月11日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 周二美股三大指数均上行，纳指领涨美股大 模 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 ● 策略:稳定币概念股投资展望。稳定币概念股投资展望:(1)自中国香港《稳 定币条例草案》通过以来, [HK]稳定币指数(887779.WI)经历了先涨后跌的 行情,成交活跃度大幅提升。5月21日至6月2日,IHK]稳定币指数累计上 涨了 84.77%, 但 6 月 3 日至 6 月 6 日回调了 15.86%, 因此 5 月 21 日至 6 月 6 日累计上涨 55.47%。 (2) A 股稳定币指数 (8841912.WI) 行情略微滞后于 港股稳定币指数，波动幅度也小于港股。5 月 26 日至 6 月 5 日，A 股稳定币 指数累计上涨 35.51%, 6 月 6 目回调 2.83%。 (3 ...

Core Insights - Despite a bleak macroeconomic backdrop, investor sentiment towards the Chinese market has improved, leading to increased allocation intentions, particularly in the technology and new consumption sectors [1] Group 1: Investor Consensus - Global diversification demand is driving an increase in interest for Chinese stock allocations, with global investors expressing a desire to increase exposure to the Chinese market [2] - The investability of the Chinese market is gradually improving, with a particular focus on new consumption themes and artificial intelligence [2] Group 2: Market Performance Discrepancies - The A-share market has significantly underperformed compared to the Hong Kong market and overseas Chinese stocks, with the CSI 300 index down 1.5% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Index and MSCI China Index are up 19% and 16% respectively [4] - Three main factors contribute to the performance divergence between domestic and overseas markets: 1. More opportunities related to artificial intelligence and new consumption are concentrated in the Hong Kong market, with many high-quality A-share companies opting for dual listings in Hong Kong [4] 2. Significant differences in industry composition between the two markets, with high-quality, high ROE companies dominating the MSCI China Index [4] 3. Limited liquidity support from state-owned entities for the A-share market at current index levels [5] Group 3: Currency Outlook - Morgan Stanley has shifted its view on the RMB against the USD, predicting a mild appreciation of the RMB to 7.05 by the end of 2026, despite challenges such as higher tariffs [5] Group 4: Investor Concerns - Ongoing deflationary pressures are expected to deter investors, with predictions of continued deflation until at least 2027 [6] - Concerns regarding high valuations in the technology and new consumption sectors, suggesting a balanced approach to achieve excess returns while maintaining exposure to high dividend stocks for stable cash returns [6]

Group 1 - The A500 Index (000510) increased by 0.65% as of June 11, 2025, with notable gains from Jianghuai Automobile (600418) at 6.37%, Cangge Mining (000408) at 4.34%, and others [1] - The A500 ETF Fund (512050) rose by 0.75%, with a latest price of 0.95 yuan and a trading volume of 1.173 billion yuan [1] - The A500 ETF Fund has a one-year average daily trading volume of 3.626 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The latest scale of the A500 ETF Fund reached 15.705 billion yuan, with a financing buy amount of 4.1587 million yuan and a financing balance of 36.7489 million yuan [2] - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 Index accounted for 21.21% of the index, including Kweichow Moutai (600519) and CATL (300750) [2] Group 3 - The A500 Index selects 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity from various industries, reflecting the overall performance of representative listed companies [1] - The market is experiencing increased style rotation, suggesting a focus on balanced broad-based indices like the A500 Index [1]

Group 1 - The A-shares market saw a collective rise in the three major indices on June 11, with the A500 Index ETF (159351) increasing by 0.93% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, indicating active trading [1] - The A500 Index ETF has experienced a year-to-date growth in shares of 1.902 billion yuan and a growth rate of 14.48%, both ranking first among similar products [1] - Several foreign institutions are optimistic about Chinese assets, with Morgan Stanley noting that global investors' exposure to China remains relatively low, but there is a growing willingness to allocate to Chinese stocks due to concerns about missing out on technological advancements [1] Group 2 - UBS's emerging markets strategist Xingchen Yu recommends strategic investment in Chinese stocks, citing improvements in fundamentals, potential policy support, and long-term growth prospects in artificial intelligence as key drivers for further appreciation in Chinese tech stocks [1] - The A500 Index ETF closely tracks the CSI A500 Index, which selects 500 stocks that represent strong market capitalization across various industries, balancing large-cap stocks while covering core leading assets in the A-share market [2] - Zheshang Securities suggests that thematic investment will remain an important strategy in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors such as AI, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, and new consumption [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and investment opportunities, highlighting the recovery of certain cyclical sectors supported by fundamental data, and suggests a cautious yet strategic approach to investment selection [4][5]. Market Overview - On June 11, the three major stock indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3385.46 points, up 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10176.5 points, up 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index at 2044.28 points, up 0.34% [3]. - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as automotive parts, smart agriculture, servers, and AI medical concepts, while sectors like seed industry, rare earths, controllable nuclear fusion, and new consumption themes showed weakness [3]. Expert Opinions - Yuan Qiang from Guotai Junan Securities believes that some cyclical sectors are showing signs of recovery, supported by fundamental data, making them worthy of investment [4]. - Liu Jun from Guolian Securities suggests that while there are short-term investment opportunities, substantial index-level breakthroughs depend on fundamental improvements and industry collaboration [4]. - Fan Ming from Shenzhen Qianhai Duoying Wealth Management anticipates a gradual recovery in the consumer market in the second half of the year, supported by positive macroeconomic indicators [5]. Investor Sentiment - According to CITIC Securities, investor sentiment in May remained stable, with improvements due to easing US-China trade tensions, although concerns about domestic demand and price signals have dampened sentiment [9][10]. - Huaxi Securities emphasizes the need for a rotational strategy in trading technology stocks, as the market remains uncertain despite improved risk appetite due to US-China trade relations [11].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showed strong fluctuations on June 11, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) rising over 1.4% during the day and closing up 0.96%, with trading volume exceeding 21 million yuan [1] - Among the constituent stocks, BYD Co. Ltd. rose over 4%, while other notable gainers included Zhongsheng Holdings, Yueda Group, Geely Automobile, Bilibili-W, Xpeng Motors-W, and Tongcheng Travel [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which consists of 50 large-cap, liquid consumer-related stocks within the Stock Connect range, reflecting the overall performance of consumer stocks in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The ongoing "618" shopping festival is driving a new wave of consumer enthusiasm, supported by the "trade-in" policy for consumer goods and promotions from major e-commerce platforms, creating a synergistic effect [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that as of May 31, the five major categories of consumer goods under the trade-in policy have generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [1] - According to a report from China International Capital Corporation, the Chinese consumer market is currently characterized by "consumption stratification," with consumers willing to pay for "quality low prices" and "justifiable premiums" [2]

港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、名创优品等潮玩、"谷子经济"的相关上市公司，又包含阿 里巴巴、腾讯、美团等互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。港股消费板块中电商、餐饮、旅游、文 娱传媒、国潮服装等新型消费比例更高，或更能充分反映本轮大力提振消费政策驱动下的消费景气复 苏。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 6月11日，周三港股市场小幅高开，恒生指数涨0.12%，恒生科技指数涨0.22%，国企指数涨0.21%。盘 面上，新消费概念股普遍上涨，稀土概念上涨，创新药概念延续涨势。港股消费板块高开后略有震荡， 相关热门ETF中，港股消费ETF（513230）现涨近1%。 消息面上，在永乐2025春季拍卖会上，一款显示为初代藏品级薄荷色的LABUBU最终以108万元的价格 完成竞拍。据了解，此次拍卖出现在全球首场初代藏品级LABUBU艺术专场。 德意志银行报告写道，泡泡玛特的潜在市场规模远大于此前的估计，该公司的Labubu品牌近期获得了 强劲的势头。德银称，一个动漫IP能够打破文化壁垒，同时受到亚洲文化和西方主流流行 ...

6月11日早盘，港股三大指数集体高开。盘面上，科网股普涨，新消费概念股普遍上涨，稀土概念上 涨，创新药概念延续涨势。A股同赛道规模及流动性双料第一的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数 震荡向上，持仓股中，比亚迪（002594）股份、蔚来、比亚迪电子、金蝶国际、小鹏汽车、百度集团等 涨幅居前。 消息面上，海天味业（603288）于2025年6月11日至2025年6月16日招股，该公司拟全球发售2.63亿股H 股，港股公开发售占6%，国际发售占94%。另有15%超额配股权。每股发售价35-36.3港元，每手100 股，预期H股将于2025年6月19日（星期四）上午九时正在联交所开始买卖。此外，据港交所6月10日披 露，曹操出行通过港交所主板上市聆讯。据悉，该公司是一家由吉利集团孵化的中国网约车平台。 国金证券认为，港股市场持续火热，综合港股IPO（无论是A+H还是新股IPO）和成交量等因素来看， 港股的资产质量、风险偏好等都有显著提升，积极寻找港股的机会，其中资产交易平台的价值凸显。此 外，开年以来，港股市场多板块或者赛道景气度上行，AI、新消费、创新药等板块的赚钱明显，港股 市场的风险偏好显著提升，投资 ...

国外 1. 大摩：预计到2026年底，人民币对美元的升值幅度将相对温和，可能达到7.05 今日上午，MSCI中国指数上涨，较4月低点涨幅扩大至20%。从目前的情况来看，中国股市的多头趋势 的确在增强。摩根士丹利表示，投资者尤其关注中国市场中的新技术和新商业模式，特别是新消费主题 以及人工智能/科技相关主题。对于中国在全球技术竞争中能力的提升，例如在人工智能领域的突破以 及电动车、电池、人形机器人等领域的进展，投资者也给予了更多认可，并开始重新思考在多极世界中 同时投资中美市场的策略。汇率方面，摩根士丹利已将人民币兑美元的观点从贬值转为升值。这一转变 反映了其对美元走弱的预期，预计到2026年底，美元指数可能跌至89。同时，欧元兑美元预计也将升值 超过10%。不过，摩根士丹利预计到2026年底，人民币对美元的升值幅度将相对温和，可能达到7.05。 2. 瑞银全球财富管理建议配置中国股票，看好其上涨潜力 瑞银全球财富管理认为，全球投资者应继续战略性地投资中国股票，因为贸易风险已触顶，未来可能会 有更多政策支持。其表示，在基本面改善、现有及潜在政策支持、以及人工智能的长期增长前景推动 下，中国科技股具有进一步上涨的 ...

Group 1 - The pet economy is experiencing rapid growth, with pets becoming important emotional companions and family members, leading to an expanding pet consumption market [1] - As of June 10, the Wind Pet Economy Concept Index increased by 1.68%, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Analysts predict that new consumption habits and brand strength will continue to foster the emergence of new consumer brands in the pet industry [1] Group 2 - According to Huaxi Securities, the urban pet consumption market in China is expected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [1] - The market is projected to grow to 478.7 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% from 2024 to 2030 [1] - Pet medical consumption is the fastest-growing segment at a growth rate of 13.9%, while the food sector holds the largest share at 52.8% [1] Group 3 - Galaxy Securities anticipates that the pet industry in China will exceed 400 billion yuan by 2027, driven by changes in consumer trends such as emotional economy and rational pet ownership [2] - CITIC Securities expects continued growth in the pet sector's performance by 2025, highlighting the resilience of demand in this niche market [2] - The domestic market is characterized by a "large industry, small leaders" phase, with increasing concentration among leading companies through product innovation and brand development [2] Group 4 - Chaoyun Group has expanded its store count to 68 as of May 13, 2025, indicating growth in its physical retail presence [3] - The company is expected to improve its profitability model for pet offline stores through single-store model development and fixed cost sharing [3] - Chaoyun Group has developed two proprietary brands, covering pet supplies and pet food, with significant growth in online channels due to accelerated product development and increased channel promotion [3]