工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 9390 | 9075 | -315 | | | | 近月 | 9390 | 9080 | -310 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 9250 | 9300 | 50 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 9050 | 9050 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9650 | 9700 | 50 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices closed down. The macro - non - farm data was below expectations, pressuring the market. European ARA hub inventory data showed mixed trends. The market is fragile and sensitive to negatives, and oil prices are expected to continue oscillating [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. Singapore's October sales data showed growth and decline in different types. In November, sufficient inventory will suppress the low - sulfur market, while the high - sulfur market has relatively healthy downstream demand, and prices are expected to be weak [3] - **Asphalt**: The futures price rose on Thursday. Supply may decline slightly in the short - term due to profit reduction, and downstream demand is limited due to weather, so the price is treated with a bearish view [3] - **Polyester**: Futures prices of related products fell. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations. With the improvement of the PTA fundamentals, its price is expected to oscillate strongly, while the ethylene glycol has short - term supply improvement but medium - term inventory pressure, and its price will adjust widely [5] - **Rubber**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. The supply pressure increases while the downstream demand is weak externally, but winter storage demand supports the price, so the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Methanol**: Supply has returned to a high level recently, but Iranian devices may stop in the future, and port inventory is expected to decline from December to January, so the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Polyolefins**: The market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the low valuation may prompt downstream actions, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in different regions decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to the slowdown of real - estate construction, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 12 - month contract closed down $0.3 to $59.14/barrel, Brent 1 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $63.38/barrel, and SC2512 closed at 456.7 yuan/barrel, down 1.7 yuan/barrel. The non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. European ARA hub diesel inventory decreased by nearly 5%, gasoline inventory slightly decreased, naphtha inventory increased by nearly 10%, aviation fuel inventory slightly decreased, and fuel oil inventory increased [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.76% to 2517 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) fell 3.5% to 3139 yuan/ton. In October 2025, Singapore's total marine fuel sales were 4.8177 million tons, with a 1.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.23% year - on - year decrease. In November, low - sulfur supply is abundant, and high - sulfur has relatively healthy demand [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract (BU2601) rose 0.33% to 3058 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.34% at 4696 yuan/ton, EG2601 closed down 2.08% at 3822 yuan/ton, and PX601 closed down 0.58% at 6830 yuan/ton. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations, and the PTA load was adjusted to 72.1% [5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 190 yuan/ton to 15250 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 160 yuan/ton to 12320 yuan/ton. Rubber production is seasonally increasing, and imports are increasing year - on - year [6] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2000 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop in the future [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the price of East China PP and PE had different trends, and the profit of various production methods was negative. The market is gradually shifting to strong supply and weak demand [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to real - estate construction slowdown [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical products on November 20 and 19, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. The ARA hub's inventory data for diesel, gasoline, naphtha, aviation fuel, and fuel oil in the week ending November 20 was released [12][13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of different products over time, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32][37][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different varieties, including crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE, PP, etc. [68]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. For rebar, focus on the support at the 3000 level, and for hot - rolled coils, focus on the support at the 3240 level. Operate by closing short positions and temporarily holding a wait - and - see attitude on single - side trades [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures contract prices also declined. Rebar 01 contract decreased by 20 yuan, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 9 yuan [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan, and the slab price remained unchanged. Profits in different regions of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 5 yuan [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products increased by 15.5 tons to 849.9 tons, an increase of 1.9%. Rebar production increased by 8 tons to 208 tons, an increase of 4% [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 44.2 tons to 1433.1 tons, a decrease of 3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 22.8 tons to 553.3 tons, a decrease of 4% [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 8.5, a decrease of 8.5%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 33.6 tons to 894.2 tons, an increase of 3.9%. The apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Iron ore is expected to show a high - level oscillation trend, and single - side trades should be on hold [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly, such as the PB powder warehouse - receipt cost decreasing by 3.3 yuan, a decrease of 0.4%. The 01 contract basis of some varieties also changed slightly [4] - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 472 tons to 2269 tons, a decrease of 17.2%, and the global shipping volume increased by 447.4 tons to 3516.4 tons, an increase of 14.6% [4] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 tons to 236.3 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The daily average ore - removal volume at 45 ports increased by 2.9 tons to 329.9 tons, an increase of 0.9% [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 120.8 tons to 15054.65 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 75 tons to 9001 tons, a decrease of 0.8% [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - For coke, it is regarded as oscillating bearishly in the range of 1550 - 1700, and temporarily on hold. For coking coal, it is regarded as oscillating bearishly in the range of 1050 - 1200, and temporarily on hold [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs (Coke) - **Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices decreased, such as the 01 contract decreasing by 6 yuan, a decrease of 0.3%. The fourth - round price increase of mainstream coke enterprises was fully implemented [6] - **Production**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 tons to 63 tons, a decrease of 0.5% [6] - **Demand**: The pig iron output decreased, and the demand for coke was suppressed to some extent [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Coking plants, ports, and steel mills all had a slight reduction in inventory, and the overall inventory was slightly lower in the middle level [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs (Coking Coal) - **Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures prices decreased, such as the 01 contract decreasing by 26 yuan, a decrease of 2.3%. Some coking coal prices decreased, such as the Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) decreasing by 41 yuan, a decrease of 3.2% [6] - **Supply**: Some shut - down coal mines in Shanxi began to resume production, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly in November [6] - **Demand**: The coking plant's production decreased slightly, and the replenishment demand weakened [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The overall inventory of coking coal was slightly lower in the middle level, with coal - washing plants, ports, and coking plants reducing inventory [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are advised for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum is for long - position reduction; nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch [1][20][23][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in a low - level sideways trend; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; red dates are expected to be in a slightly weak sideways trend [1][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are under pressure for rebound; eggs have limited upside potential; corn is in a bottom - building sideways trend; soybean meal is in a range - bound trend; oils and fats are in a weak adjustment [1][40][43][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It analyzes factors such as economic data, policy expectations, production, consumption, and inventory levels to predict price trends and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: They are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and are long - term bullish. With market hotspots rotating quickly and no clear main line, factors like US employment data and policy expectations affect the market. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. After previous trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term trading is influenced by news, economic data, and policy expectations, while long - term trading awaits signals from the Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a sideways trend. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory, with low purchasing willingness from various parties [7][8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. The futures price has fallen below certain cost levels, and in the short - term, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, with steel prices likely to be in a low - level sideways trend [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The main contract's position has reached a new high, and the market is weak due to factors such as unchanged supply, slowdown in restocking, and weakening demand. There is a risk of further demand decline and delivery pressure in the near - term [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level sideways trend. Market sentiment has turned cautious, and factors such as US government policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. Although there is long - term potential, short - term risks exist, and range trading or waiting and watching is advised [11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade sideways. Alumina production has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply and demand are balanced. With the approach of the off - season and other factors, the price is likely to be range - bound [12] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies. Indonesia's policy adjustment may affect supply, and there is an overall surplus in the nickel market, with different trends in various nickel products [16] - **Tin**: It is for cautious range trading. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak, but low overseas inventory provides some support [17] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. The US government's policy and Fed's interest - rate expectations affect the prices, and there is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates in Yichun and downstream production schedules [20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports are the main factors, and attention should be paid to cost, policy, and inventory changes [20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High inventory in the alumina industry exerts pressure on the caustic soda spot market, and attention should be paid to the verification of production - reduction expectations [23] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade sideways. Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to a balanced market, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and production schedules [24][25] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways, with support at the 15000 level. Cost support and inventory pressure coexist, and the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has some fluctuations [26] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade sideways. High supply, increasing demand in some sectors, and high inventory limit the upward potential of prices [28] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade sideways. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - level changes and production schedules [29] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. Cost compression, increasing supply, and weakening demand lead to a potential expansion of the supply - demand gap [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch. Supply is expected to contract, and cost support is strong, with limited downward space for the price [34][35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, and downstream consumption is weak [35] - **PTA**: It is in a low - level sideways trend. Supply is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is affected by factors such as oil prices and cost [35][37] - **Apples**: They are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend. With a decline in both production and quality, prices are likely to remain strong [37] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and prices are slightly loosening [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are under pressure for rebound. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as secondary fattening and demand, and long - term supply remains high [40] - **Eggs**: They have limited upside potential. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is stable. In the long - term, supply pressure may gradually ease [43] - **Corn**: It is in a bottom - building sideways trend. Short - term price is affected by new - grain listing, and long - term supply - demand is relatively balanced with some pressure on the upside [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a range - bound trend. US soybean supply - demand and domestic buying and selling affect the price, and range trading or basis pricing is recommended [45] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a weak adjustment. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and short - term adjustment risks exist, with long - term potential for wide - range fluctuations [46][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,822 yuan/ton (a change of - 81 yuan/ton or - 2.08% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,876 yuan/ton (a change of - 49 yuan/ton or - 1.25% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in the East China EG market was 32 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 8 yuan/ton) [1] - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 1,024 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton) [1] - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7.1 tons); according to Longzhong data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 63.3 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 11.1 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 2.8 tons, showing a neutral situation [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and the domestic supply is abundant. Overseas, there are limited changes in ethylene glycol plants, and the arrival plan around mid - November is still moderately high, with port inventories expected to gradually rise. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3,822 yuan/ton (a change of - 81 yuan/ton or - 2.08% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China EG market was 3,876 yuan/ton (a change of - 49 yuan/ton or - 1.25% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in the East China EG market was 32 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 8 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 1,024 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data and analysis provided in the text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 73.2 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7.1 tons); according to Longzhong data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 63.3 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 11.1 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 2.8 tons, showing a neutral situation [1]

原油日报 | 2025-11-21 原油与成品油市场分化加剧 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌30美分，收于每桶59.14美元，跌幅为0.5%；1月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌13美分，收于每桶63.38美元，跌幅为0.2%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.73%，报452元/桶。（来 源：Bloomberg） 2、 截至11月14日当周，美国天然气库存总量为39460亿立方英尺，较此前一周减少140亿立方英尺，较去年同期 减少230亿立方英尺，同比降幅0.6%，同时较5年均值高1460亿立方英尺，增幅3.8%。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 当地时间20日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发言人纳伊尼表示，伊朗认为冲突会随时爆发，并已经提高了战备水平。 纳伊尼指出，伊朗军方的设想是战争随时可能爆发，对此毫不怀疑。"我们持悲观态度，武装部队必须持悲观态度， 并且必须时刻做好准备。"敌人的目的是让伊朗处于"非战非和"的状态，但伊朗将变得更加强大，在各领域增强力 量。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、 德国天然气市场协调机构Trading Hub Europe（THE）周四表示，自明年 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-21 地缘端：以色列国防部长：必须摧毁哈马斯在加沙的地道网络，以色列军队正在不间断地工作以完成这项任务。 动态供给：动态供给：11月份剩余3周周均运力27.58万TEU，WEEK47/48/49周运力分别为27.87/26.9/27.96万TEU。 12月份月度周均运力31.3万TEU，WEEK50/51/52/53周运力分别为33.3/27/31.42/33.47万TEU。11月份共计10个空 班和1个TBN（其中MSC/PA联盟4个空班，双子星联盟1个空班，OA联盟5个空班，OA联盟的1个TBN后续预计均 转为空班）。12月份共计4个TBN和1个空班（OA联盟3个TBN，MSC/PA联盟1个TBN，MSC/PA联盟1个空班）。 12月合约:12月合约交易更多关注节奏问题，预期和现实交相辉映，估值逐步清晰，关注12月份挺价落地成色。四 季度船司需要为下一年长协谈判做准备，为了保证来年收入基本盘稳固，船司会通过供应端调节使得运价处于较 高位置。节奏方面，12月合约节奏预计首先交易涨价预期（10月中旬左右宣布11月份涨价函，10月底有部分船司 再度发布11月下半月涨价函），然后 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price has a slight increase, and after the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry - season, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and inventory accumulation slows down. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies pushing for capacity exit, the futures price may rise. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumption performance. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][7]. 3. Summary by Topic Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9365 yuan/ton and closed at 9075 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.37% from the previous settlement. The 2511 main contract held 273978 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43297, a decrease of 115 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 54.8 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons from last week. The social general warehouse inventory was 12.9 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 41.9 tons, unchanged from last week [1]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 4.51 tons, a sharp decrease of 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 60.67 tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 0.86 tons, a decrease of 67% year - on - year [2]. - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC continued to rise, with the current market quotation ranging from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, an increase of about 850 yuan/ton or 6.9% from last week's average price. In October 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxanes from China was 4.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, buy on dips [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. It opened at 54500 yuan/ton and closed at 52450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 134292 positions, and the trading volume was 304835 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon factory inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10, a change of 1.50% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW, a change of 1.63% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 27100.00 tons, a change of 1.11% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a change of - 2.59% month - on - month [5]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: Silicon wafer prices fell due to poor order demand. The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece. The prices of various types of battery cells and components remained stable [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 and 55,000 yuan/ton [7].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date investment strategy: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The late Fuji apple's on - the - ground and warehousing transactions are winding down, with stable in - warehouse trading. The on - the - ground supply in Shandong is decreasing and the quality is declining. The high - quality apples in western regions are mainly for outbound sales, and their prices are stable. Affected by competing fruits like citrus, the market sales are average. In the short term, the market is expected to remain stable supported by foreign trade channels, and future focus should be on inventory digestion [2][3]. - Red dates: The red date futures price fluctuated and closed higher. The acquisition in Aksu and Alar is progressing rapidly, the price in Kashgar has dropped slightly with few transactions, and the acquisition in Ruoqiang and other areas is basically completed. In the sales areas, new products are gradually on the market, with uneven quality and large price differences. The inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market's future expectations are pessimistic. The quality of red dates is better than last year. The actual consumption at the consumer end will be a key focus [7]. Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 121 yuan/ton or 1.29% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over - 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.80 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price rose. The on - the - ground and warehousing transactions of late Fuji are coming to an end, with stable in - warehouse trading. The on - the - ground supply in Shandong is decreasing and the quality is declining. High - quality apples in the west are mainly for outbound sales, and their prices are stable. The market is affected by competing fruits, with average sales. In the short term, the market is supported by foreign trade channels and is expected to remain stable. Last week, the warehousing of new - season late Fuji in production areas was mostly completed, with the remaining mainly in western townships of Shandong Qixia and the paper - wrapped film production area of Shanxi Yuncheng. The warehousing volume was lower than last year, with a higher proportion of farmers' warehousing and a lower proportion of high - quality products. The outbound sales have begun, mainly for foreign - trade goods and some merchants' supplementary supplies. The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales of apples are squeezed by citrus [3]. Red dates - The red date futures price fluctuated and closed higher. The acquisition in Aksu and Alar is progressing rapidly, the price in Kashgar has dropped slightly with few transactions, and the acquisition in Ruoqiang and other areas is basically completed. The acquisition is priced according to quality, and enterprises' enthusiasm is average. In the sales areas, new products are gradually on the market, with uneven quality and large price differences. Merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing is average, and they buy according to demand. Last week, the enthusiasm for acquisition in the spot market of the sales area decreased after continuous price drops. The inventory of 36 sample points increased slightly. It is expected that new products will be listed in large quantities soon, and the inventory pressure is high. The new - season jujube trees have over - exhausted problems, and a production reduction is expected. The quality of jujubes is better than last year. The actual consumption at the consumer end will be a key focus [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report Core Views - For methanol, the current situation remains poor, Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, November imports are likely to remain high, the contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve, port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, inventory reduction is difficult, upward price momentum is weak, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price spreads are volatile, and LD prices are weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [4]. - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral, and markets in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are volatile, and powder production starts are stable.拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - For PVC, the basis of 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Summer maintenance of Northwest devices is seasonal, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal market sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive PVC profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stabilizing, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [4]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 14 to November 20, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu, South China, Lunan, Southwest, Hebei, and Northwest spot markets showed certain fluctuations, with daily changes of 0, 12, 5, 7, 0, 5 respectively on November 20 compared to the previous period. CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia prices also had some changes [1]. - **Profit Data**: Import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit on the futures market also showed corresponding changes during this period [1]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From November 14 to November 20, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, and East China HD showed fluctuations. The daily change of East China LL and East China LD on November 20 was - 25 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The two major oil companies' inventory, import profit, main contract futures price, basis, and warehouse receipts also had certain changes during this period. The two major oil companies' inventory remained at 12017 on November 20, and the basis was - 40 [4]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From November 14 to November 20, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, East China PP, North China PP, and other markets showed fluctuations. The daily changes of Shandong propylene, East China PP, and North China PP on November 20 were - 20, - 15, - 13 respectively compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Inventory Data**: Export profit, main contract futures price, basis, and the two major oil companies' inventory also had corresponding changes during this period. The basis remained at - 100, and the two major oil companies' inventory was 15733 on November 20 [4]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From November 14 to November 20, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and various production - method PVC in different regions showed fluctuations. The daily change of the East China price of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 50 on November 20 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Basis Data**: Export profit, Northwest and North China comprehensive profits, and the basis of high - end delivery products remained relatively stable during this period, with the basis of high - end delivery products remaining at - 90 [4].