原油日报 | 2025-11-21 原油与成品油市场分化加剧 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌30美分，收于每桶59.14美元，跌幅为0.5%；1月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌13美分，收于每桶63.38美元，跌幅为0.2%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.73%，报452元/桶。（来 源：Bloomberg） 2、 截至11月14日当周，美国天然气库存总量为39460亿立方英尺，较此前一周减少140亿立方英尺，较去年同期 减少230亿立方英尺，同比降幅0.6%，同时较5年均值高1460亿立方英尺，增幅3.8%。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 当地时间20日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发言人纳伊尼表示，伊朗认为冲突会随时爆发，并已经提高了战备水平。 纳伊尼指出，伊朗军方的设想是战争随时可能爆发，对此毫不怀疑。"我们持悲观态度，武装部队必须持悲观态度， 并且必须时刻做好准备。"敌人的目的是让伊朗处于"非战非和"的状态，但伊朗将变得更加强大，在各领域增强力 量。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、 德国天然气市场协调机构Trading Hub Europe（THE）周四表示，自明年 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-21 地缘端：以色列国防部长：必须摧毁哈马斯在加沙的地道网络，以色列军队正在不间断地工作以完成这项任务。 动态供给：动态供给：11月份剩余3周周均运力27.58万TEU，WEEK47/48/49周运力分别为27.87/26.9/27.96万TEU。 12月份月度周均运力31.3万TEU，WEEK50/51/52/53周运力分别为33.3/27/31.42/33.47万TEU。11月份共计10个空 班和1个TBN（其中MSC/PA联盟4个空班，双子星联盟1个空班，OA联盟5个空班，OA联盟的1个TBN后续预计均 转为空班）。12月份共计4个TBN和1个空班（OA联盟3个TBN，MSC/PA联盟1个TBN，MSC/PA联盟1个空班）。 12月合约:12月合约交易更多关注节奏问题，预期和现实交相辉映，估值逐步清晰，关注12月份挺价落地成色。四 季度船司需要为下一年长协谈判做准备，为了保证来年收入基本盘稳固，船司会通过供应端调节使得运价处于较 高位置。节奏方面，12月合约节奏预计首先交易涨价预期（10月中旬左右宣布11月份涨价函，10月底有部分船司 再度发布11月下半月涨价函），然后 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price has a slight increase, and after the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry - season, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and inventory accumulation slows down. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies pushing for capacity exit, the futures price may rise. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumption performance. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][7]. 3. Summary by Topic Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9365 yuan/ton and closed at 9075 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.37% from the previous settlement. The 2511 main contract held 273978 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43297, a decrease of 115 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 54.8 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons from last week. The social general warehouse inventory was 12.9 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 41.9 tons, unchanged from last week [1]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 4.51 tons, a sharp decrease of 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 60.67 tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 0.86 tons, a decrease of 67% year - on - year [2]. - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC continued to rise, with the current market quotation ranging from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, an increase of about 850 yuan/ton or 6.9% from last week's average price. In October 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxanes from China was 4.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, buy on dips [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. It opened at 54500 yuan/ton and closed at 52450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 134292 positions, and the trading volume was 304835 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon factory inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10, a change of 1.50% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW, a change of 1.63% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 27100.00 tons, a change of 1.11% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a change of - 2.59% month - on - month [5]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: Silicon wafer prices fell due to poor order demand. The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece. The prices of various types of battery cells and components remained stable [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 and 55,000 yuan/ton [7].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date investment strategy: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The late Fuji apple's on - the - ground and warehousing transactions are winding down, with stable in - warehouse trading. The on - the - ground supply in Shandong is decreasing and the quality is declining. The high - quality apples in western regions are mainly for outbound sales, and their prices are stable. Affected by competing fruits like citrus, the market sales are average. In the short term, the market is expected to remain stable supported by foreign trade channels, and future focus should be on inventory digestion [2][3]. - Red dates: The red date futures price fluctuated and closed higher. The acquisition in Aksu and Alar is progressing rapidly, the price in Kashgar has dropped slightly with few transactions, and the acquisition in Ruoqiang and other areas is basically completed. In the sales areas, new products are gradually on the market, with uneven quality and large price differences. The inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market's future expectations are pessimistic. The quality of red dates is better than last year. The actual consumption at the consumer end will be a key focus [7]. Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 121 yuan/ton or 1.29% from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over - 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.80 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price rose. The on - the - ground and warehousing transactions of late Fuji are coming to an end, with stable in - warehouse trading. The on - the - ground supply in Shandong is decreasing and the quality is declining. High - quality apples in the west are mainly for outbound sales, and their prices are stable. The market is affected by competing fruits, with average sales. In the short term, the market is supported by foreign trade channels and is expected to remain stable. Last week, the warehousing of new - season late Fuji in production areas was mostly completed, with the remaining mainly in western townships of Shandong Qixia and the paper - wrapped film production area of Shanxi Yuncheng. The warehousing volume was lower than last year, with a higher proportion of farmers' warehousing and a lower proportion of high - quality products. The outbound sales have begun, mainly for foreign - trade goods and some merchants' supplementary supplies. The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales of apples are squeezed by citrus [3]. Red dates - The red date futures price fluctuated and closed higher. The acquisition in Aksu and Alar is progressing rapidly, the price in Kashgar has dropped slightly with few transactions, and the acquisition in Ruoqiang and other areas is basically completed. The acquisition is priced according to quality, and enterprises' enthusiasm is average. In the sales areas, new products are gradually on the market, with uneven quality and large price differences. Merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing is average, and they buy according to demand. Last week, the enthusiasm for acquisition in the spot market of the sales area decreased after continuous price drops. The inventory of 36 sample points increased slightly. It is expected that new products will be listed in large quantities soon, and the inventory pressure is high. The new - season jujube trees have over - exhausted problems, and a production reduction is expected. The quality of jujubes is better than last year. The actual consumption at the consumer end will be a key focus [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report Core Views - For methanol, the current situation remains poor, Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, November imports are likely to remain high, the contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve, port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, inventory reduction is difficult, upward price momentum is weak, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price spreads are volatile, and LD prices are weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [4]. - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the mid - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral, and markets in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are volatile, and powder production starts are stable.拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - For PVC, the basis of 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Summer maintenance of Northwest devices is seasonal, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal market sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive PVC profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stabilizing, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [4]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 14 to November 20, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu, South China, Lunan, Southwest, Hebei, and Northwest spot markets showed certain fluctuations, with daily changes of 0, 12, 5, 7, 0, 5 respectively on November 20 compared to the previous period. CFR China and CFR Southeast Asia prices also had some changes [1]. - **Profit Data**: Import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit on the futures market also showed corresponding changes during this period [1]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From November 14 to November 20, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, and East China HD showed fluctuations. The daily change of East China LL and East China LD on November 20 was - 25 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The two major oil companies' inventory, import profit, main contract futures price, basis, and warehouse receipts also had certain changes during this period. The two major oil companies' inventory remained at 12017 on November 20, and the basis was - 40 [4]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From November 14 to November 20, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, East China PP, North China PP, and other markets showed fluctuations. The daily changes of Shandong propylene, East China PP, and North China PP on November 20 were - 20, - 15, - 13 respectively compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Inventory Data**: Export profit, main contract futures price, basis, and the two major oil companies' inventory also had corresponding changes during this period. The basis remained at - 100, and the two major oil companies' inventory was 15733 on November 20 [4]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From November 14 to November 20, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and various production - method PVC in different regions showed fluctuations. The daily change of the East China price of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 50 on November 20 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Basis Data**: Export profit, Northwest and North China comprehensive profits, and the basis of high - end delivery products remained relatively stable during this period, with the basis of high - end delivery products remaining at - 90 [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, waiting for the market bottom to consolidate [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures market is in a low - level oscillation state. The cost side of crude oil is weak, and the fundamentals lack positive stimuli. Although there are some bottom signals, the rebound momentum is insufficient. The spot market is generally stable, with a weak trading atmosphere and no clear positive signals [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3058 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 191,962 lots, down 2,515 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 317,665 lots, up 135,611 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3156 - 3650 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3030 - 3520 yuan/ton; South China, 3090 - 3210 yuan/ton; East China, 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton [1]. - The asphalt futures market maintains a low - level oscillation. The crude oil cost is weak, and the fundamentals lack positive stimuli. There are bottom signals but insufficient rebound momentum. In the spot market, the price in North China decreased slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions were relatively stable. Although the supply in some areas is tight, the overall terminal demand is weak, resource consumption is slow, the willingness of market participants to buy at the bottom is limited, and the trading atmosphere is poor [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a neutral strategy and wait for the market bottom to be consolidated [2]. - Inter - period: No strategy [2]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-21 下游开工逐步见顶回落 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6835元/吨（+2），PP主力合约收盘价为6400元/吨（-34），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6450元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-35元/吨（-22），LL 华东基差为115元/吨（-52）， PP华东基差为50元/吨（+34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为382.4元/吨（+204.2），PP油制生产利润为-407.6元/吨（+204.2），PDH制PP生产 利润为-376.1元/吨（-21.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为84.4元/吨（+55.9），PP进口利润为-208.9元/吨（-31.3），PP出口利润为-5.4美元/吨（-1.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率 ...

Report Information - Report date: November 21, 2025 [1][4][13][14][19][22][25][35][39][43][48][53][57][63][67][69][72][80][83][85] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including trends such as supply - demand changes, price fluctuations, and trading strategies for each commodity [2][4][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is expected to be tight, with a rising unilateral price. Suggest 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene for hedging. The terminal polyester demand is weakening marginally [10][11] - **PTA**: The upside space may be limited, do not chase high. Cost provides support, and the month - spread view is revised to positive arbitrage [11] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is weak. Short at high prices and maintain reverse arbitrage for month - spreads. Supply is expected to increase, and there is an oversupply situation in December [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The supply side provides support, but the demand side from tire factories is weak, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally [13][14][17][18] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. Short - term prices are supported by the rubber sector, but the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [19][20][21] Asphalt - It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][34] LLDPE - Agricultural demand may be reaching its peak. Pay attention to supply pressure. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid needs, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness has weakened [35][36] PP - Do not short in the short term, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. Low profits limit the downward space [39][40] Caustic Soda - The trend is still under pressure. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is weak, and the long - term negative feedback from alumina production cuts may occur [43][45] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The price fluctuation is affected by factors such as futures stability, weak demand, and high inventory [48][50][52] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the price has been adjusted downward in some regions [53][54] Methanol - It is in a weakly volatile state with a narrowing downward space. The supply is high, the demand from the MTO industry is under pressure, and the cost - side pricing logic weight increases slightly [57][60][62] Urea - It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the fourth - batch export quota and mid - stream replenishment may relieve the pressure [63][65][66] Styrene - It is in a short - term volatile state. The short - term aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil logic continues, and the pure benzene market has a weak chemical reality and a strong blending oil expectation [67][68] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is based on low - price rigid needs [69][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [72] - **Propylene**: The spot trend is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom [72] PVC - Do not short at low levels. It is in a low - level volatile state. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production. However, the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change in the short term [80][81] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has strengthened in the short term, with a continuous rebound at night [83] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly decreased [83] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile state [85] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term volatile state [31] - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term volatile state, and the processing fee is compressed [31] Offset Printing Paper - It is in a low - level volatile state [32] Pure Benzene - It is mainly volatile in the short term. The overseas blending oil market is starting, and the chemical fundamentals are weak [34][68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Limited rebound height, focus on the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][4] - Soybean oil: No breakthrough driving force, mainly range - bound [2][4] - Soybean meal: Fluctuating [2][11] - Soybean: Fluctuating [2][11] - Corn: Fluctuating [2][14] - Sugar: Consolidating at a low level [2][18] - Cotton: Futures prices maintain a fluctuating trend [2][23] - Eggs: Increased culling volume [2][27] - Live pigs: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][29] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2][32] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Palm oil's day - session closing price dropped 2.33%, and night - session rose 0.07%; soybean oil's day - session dropped 1.58%, and night - session rose 0.05% [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) price decreased by 70 yuan/ton; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) decreased by 100 yuan/ton [4] - Basis and Spread: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis is 24 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis is 396 yuan/ton; various futures spreads have different changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 14.1% - 20.5% compared with the same period last month [5][6] - India's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 market year are expected to rebound nearly 20% [8] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: DCE soybean 2601's day - session closing price dropped 0.77%, night - session dropped 0.05%; DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session dropped 1.14%, night - session rose 0.13% [11] - Spot: Soybean meal spot price ranges in different regions, with different basis changes [11] - Industry Data: Soybean meal trading volume was 19.1 million tons per day, and inventory was 95.45 million tons per week [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - On November 20, CBOT soybean futures closed down due to concerns that China may not meet the procurement target [11][13] 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking** - Spot: Important spot prices such as Jinzhou's closing price remained unchanged, and Guangdong Shekou's price decreased by 10 yuan/ton [15] - Futures: C2601's day - session closing price dropped 0.14%, night - session rose 0.09%; C2603's day - session dropped 0.23%, night - session rose 0.09% [15] - Spread: The main 01 basis is 22 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 03 inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton [15] - **Macro and Industry News** - Northern corn bulk shipping and container shipping prices in some areas decreased or remained unchanged; Guangdong Shekou's price decreased [16] 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking** - Price: Raw sugar price is 14.68 cents/pound; mainstream spot price is 5650 yuan/ton; futures main contract price is 5366 yuan/ton [18] - Spread: 15 - spread is 46 yuan/ton; 59 - spread is - 17 yuan/ton; mainstream spot basis is 284 yuan/ton [18] - **Macro and Industry News** - Pay attention to China's import policy changes for syrup and premixed powder; India's 25/26 sugar export quota is 1.5 million tons [18] - CAOC expects China's 25/26 sugar production to be 11.7 million tons; ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 season [19][20] 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: CF2601's day - session closing price dropped 0.15%, night - session rose 0.26%; CY2601's day - session dropped 0.25%, night - session rose 0.15% [23] - Spot: North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton price decreased by 20 yuan/ton; 3128B index increased by 12 yuan/ton [23] - Spread: CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton; North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton minus CF601 is 910 yuan/ton [23] - **Macro and Industry News** - Cotton spot trading changed little, and spinning mills' procurement willingness was not strong; ICE cotton futures slightly declined [24] 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Egg 2512's closing price rose 2.29%, and Egg 2601 rose 1.95% [27] - Spread: Egg 12 - 1 spread is - 251; Egg 12 - 5 spread is - 521 [27] - Spot: Liaoning's spot price is 2.90 yuan/jin; Hebei's is 2.60 yuan/jin [27] 3.7 Live Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Spot: Henan's spot price is 11780 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Sichuan's is 11400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's is 12360 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [29] - Futures: Live pig 2601's price is 11440 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; Live pig 2603 is 11315 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; Live pig 2605 is 11940 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [29] - Spread: Live pig 2601 basis is 340 yuan/ton; Live pig 1 - 3 spread is 125 yuan/ton [29] 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking** - Spot: Liaoning 308 general peanuts' price is 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged; Henan Baisha general peanuts' price is 7400 yuan/ton, unchanged [32] - Futures: PK601's closing price dropped 0.69%; PK603 dropped 0.51% [32] - Spread: Liaoning 308 general peanuts' basis is 1302 yuan/ton; 01 - 03 inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton [32] - **Spot Market Focus** - In Henan, peanut prices in some areas are stable or slightly stronger; in Jilin and Liaoning, farmers are holding prices, and trading is stalemate; in Shandong, prices are basically stable [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound and high - elasticity oscillation, with no clear trend in the short term, and the spread - widening strategy of RU - NR has basically ended [1][2][15]. - The sentiment in the oil market weakened due to the fluctuating expectations of the US biodiesel policy, and the market will face a game of multiple long and short factors in the future, with all types of oils expected to oscillate [7]. - In the protein meal market, the US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly, and the domestic continuous meal is also expected to oscillate strongly, influenced by factors such as South American weather and Chinese procurement [8]. - The corn and starch market will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the game between selling pressure after freezing and inventory building [8][9]. - The pig market has an abundant supply of pigs, with prices running weakly in the short term and a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the long term [11]. - The synthetic rubber market has a stable atmosphere and the disk continues to oscillate. Before the butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to short at high prices [16][17]. - The cotton price has limited upward and downward space, with a short - term callback risk and a long - term tendency to oscillate strongly [17]. - The sugar price is under increasing supply pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [18]. - The pulp market is mainly driven by funds, with the futures market showing a wide - range oscillation [19]. - The double - gum paper market is driven by limited tender support and will oscillate [20]. - The log market has a low valuation and will fluctuate at a low level [22][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils - **View**: The sentiment in the oil market weakened due to the fluctuating expectations of the US biodiesel policy. - **Logic**: The US biodiesel policy expectations are fluctuating, the macro - environment is complex, and the industrial situation shows that the US soybean harvest is nearing completion, the Brazilian and Argentine soybean plantings are progressing, and the domestic and international supply and demand situations vary. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [7]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: In the South American weather market, US soybeans are stronger than the continuous meal. - **Logic**: Globally, the South American soybean planting is affected by La Nina, the US soybean planting area is expected to expand, and the export is under pressure. Domestically, the soybean import profit is deteriorating, and the supply pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and continuous meal will oscillate strongly [8]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The oscillation market continues, and attention should be paid to the game between selling pressure after freezing and inventory building. - **Logic**: The supply side has a slow selling rhythm due to cold weather, and the demand side has concentrated demand in the Northeast. There is also import corn auction. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [8][9]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and the prices are running weakly. - **Logic**: In the short term, the scale - farm's daily average slaughter volume may increase at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is being reduced. The demand is affected by temperature, and the inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillation and weakening, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Maintain the range - bound pattern. - **Logic**: The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, the raw material price is firm but may fall, the demand has not changed significantly, and the RU has greater selling pressure than NR. - **Outlook**: Continue to maintain a wide - range and high - elasticity oscillation, with no trend in the short term [1][15]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market atmosphere is stable, and the disk continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The BR's rise is affected by overseas device news. The butadiene supply is abundant, and the downstream buying is cautious. The market has a short - term bottom support. - **Outlook**: Before the butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions, short at high prices [16][17]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price has limited upward and downward space. - **Logic**: The previous bullish factors have been digested, the production expectation is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weakening. - **Outlook**: Short - term callback risk, long - term tendency to oscillate strongly [17]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price continues to weaken. - **Logic**: The new sugar in the Northern Hemisphere is being squeezed, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the new season. - **Outlook**: Oscillation and weakening in the medium and long term [18]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The disk price has dropped significantly, which is still affected by the inflow and outflow of funds. - **Logic**: The futures drive the spot, the long - position funds are leaving, and there is a clear position - shifting phenomenon. The supply and demand are both high, and there is no serious contradiction. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [19]. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **View**: The tender support is limited, and the double - gum paper oscillates. - **Logic**: The paper mills want to maintain prices, the downstream demand is rigid, the tender price is low, and the cost support is general. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **View**: The valuation is low, and the disk fluctuates at a low level. - **Logic**: The supply will increase in December and the long - term pressure exists. The demand is weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026. - **Outlook**: Low - level oscillation [22][23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index is 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial product index is 2200.99, down 0.68%. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 20, 2025, the agricultural product index is 924.06, with a daily decline of 0.52%, a 5 - day decline of 1.46%, a 1 - month decline of 0.45%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.21% [183][185].