夜盘期货开盘，原油、氧化铝、燃油、低硫燃油跌逾1%；菜粕、豆粕等上涨。 ...

豆粕生猪：进口成本上升 豆粕小幅反弹 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金口期货 JIDGHI FILTURES | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 東位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2992 | 2998 | -6.00 | -0.20% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2716 | 2719 | -3.00 | -0.11% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2939 | 2934 | 5.00 | 0.17% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2336 | 2333 | 3.00 | 0.13% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 5月 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 生猪 周三，生猪期价震荡收十字星，远月合约 2509 期价位于 1.4 万整数关口之下，9 月期价贴水现货，近月合约进入到交割月之后贴水回归，价格反弹。现货市场方 面，生猪价格一直维持在成本线之上，猪价呈现偏乐观的预期。目前，河南市场 出栏均价为 14.60 元/公斤，较昨日降 0.15 元/公斤。当地大场 115-130 公斤良种 猪主流出栏价格 14.60-14.80 元/公斤；中小场 115-130 公斤良种主流出栏价格 14.40 元/公斤左右；145-150 公斤大猪出栏价格 14.40 元/公斤，低价 14.20 元/ 公斤。下游屠宰方面，屠宰企业中小场良种标猪主流收购价格 14.40 元/公斤左右， 均重 115-125 公斤。整体来看，生猪 9 月合约贴水现货，饲料成本预期下降，对 猪价形成价格压力。技术上，短期关注 9 月合约猪价 13500 元整数支撑的价格表 现，长期等待多单入市机会。 震荡 二、市场信息 1. 据国家粮油信息中心，船期监测显示，5 月份开始我国进口大豆将集中到港，加上 4 月份部分大豆受检 验检疫加强等因素影响 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting tapping. In Yunnan, raw material prices remain high due to rainy weather delaying the increase in supply. In Hainan, raw material output has improved but is still below the same period in previous years, and local processing plants are still purchasing raw materials at a premium. Overseas arrivals have decreased, resulting in a decline in bonded warehouse inflows, but weak buying and lack of outbound motivation have led to inventory accumulation in bonded warehouses. General trade warehouses are accelerating inventory reduction. Tire companies' capacity utilization rates are gradually recovering, driving an increase in提货量 from Qingdao warehouses, with the outbound rate significantly higher than the inbound rate, leading to a reduction in total spot inventory in Qingdao last week. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies continued to increase month - on - month. Most companies' production schedules are gradually stabilizing, but some companies have slightly adjusted down their production schedules to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. A few companies have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,400 - 15,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,730 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, and the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 790 yuan/ton. The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 154,350 lots, a decrease of 3,022 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 59,318 lots, a decrease of 32,710 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26 lots, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is 365 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 199,540 tons, a decrease of 30 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 47,678 tons, a decrease of 11,996 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, and the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 270 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 68.59 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 3.33 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 66 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 62.75 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.2 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is - 66 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 53 US dollars/ton. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 66,900 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 216,100 tons, an increase of 19,300 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.09%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 78.33%, an increase of 19.98 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 42.77 days, an increase of 0.69 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 3.09 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is - 0.68%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.36%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.35%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From May 18th to May 24th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. Precipitation in northern Thailand and the Philippines north of the equator increased significantly, and most other areas were in a medium state, still affecting tapping. South of the equator, the red - flagged areas with heavy rainfall decreased, and most other areas had medium rainfall, with the expected impact on tapping decreasing. [2] - As of May 18th, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decrease of 1.25%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points. [2] - As of May 22nd, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points. Most enterprises' production schedules are gradually stabilizing, but some enterprises have slightly adjusted down their production schedules to control inventory growth. [2]

，继续牵制市场价格。菜油市场呈现短期供应宽松但长期不确定性较大。盘面来看，受棕榈油下跌拖累，菜油震荡收跌，总体仍维 持区间震荡，短线参与为主。 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9405 | -35 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2562 | 10 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 200 | 1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 226 | 7 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 333160 | -10213 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 608010 | -7430 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 44778 | -2759 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -34125 | -7516 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 1036 | -67 仓单数量:菜粕(日, ...

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/5/22 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 827.50 | -14.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1406.50 | -11.00↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 568597.00 ...

橡胶期货小幅上涨，泰国季风预警、欧盟反倾销调查，橡胶期货市场面临双重考验？橡胶期货市场将何 去何从？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the implementation of the "two new" policies. Shanghai has introduced a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures to promote the replacement of old consumer goods, support automobile and home appliance consumption, and offer subsidies for purchasing new digital products [1]. - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the export - related policy restrictions in the logistics industry. The EU plans to charge fees on small parcels entering the EU, most of which are from China [1]. - The prices of some upstream products are fluctuating. Egg prices are oscillating, aluminum prices are rising, while glass and rubber prices are falling in the short - term [2]. - In the mid - stream, the PTA and asphalt开工率 have increased, while the PX开工率 has decreased [3]. - In the downstream, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined to a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have slightly declined recently [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Agriculture**: Egg prices have been oscillating recently [2]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Aluminum prices have been rising continuously [2]. - **Black metals**: Glass and rubber prices have declined in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Mid - stream - **Chemical industry**: The PTA开工率 has increased, while the PX开工率 has decreased recently [3]. - **Infrastructure**: The asphalt开工率 has been increasing continuously recently [3]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service industry**: The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. 3.4 Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have slightly declined recently [5]. 3.5 Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of multiple industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry have changed. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry has decreased from 78.86 last week to 63.16 this week [52]. 3.6 Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various products in different industries have changed. For example, the spot price of PTA has increased by 1.48% to 4986.3 yuan/ton on May 21, while the spot price of WTI crude oil has decreased by 2.58% to 62.0 dollars/barrel [53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price is continuously hitting new lows, with an expected increase in supply, no bright spots on the consumption side, and significant inventory and warehouse receipt pressure. The price is approaching historical lows, and most enterprises face high cost pressure. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream production after continuous price declines and the impact of relevant industry policies [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the spot price is weak, recent trading volume is low, and the futures market shows wide - range fluctuations. The acceleration of warehouse receipt registration requires attention to its impact on the market [5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to reach new lows. The main contract 2507 opened at 7,980 yuan/ton and closed at 7,865 yuan/ton, a change of - 140 yuan/ton (-1.75%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 192,802 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 21 was 65,653 lots, a decrease of 596 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (-100) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,800 (-100) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,200 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,000 - 8,200 (0) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region continued to decline, while the silicon price in Xinjiang remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [2]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 11,300 - 11,600 (0) yuan/ton. In the organic silicon market, the prices of raw rubber and D4 showed mixed trends. With the arrival of the recent trading window period, the downstream demand for raw rubber increased rapidly, and the trading was good. However, due to the weak demand for room - temperature rubber, the overall trading of D4 was average [2]. - **Strategy** - Given the current situation, attention should be paid to the changes in upstream production after continuous price declines and the impact of relevant industry policies [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 21, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 35,630 yuan/ton and closing at 35,860 yuan/ton, a 0.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 73,488 (70,536 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 157,225 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The re - feeding material was quoted at 32.00 - 35.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg; dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.00 (a month - on - month change of - 2.27%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW (a month - on - month increase of 7.22%), the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.50%) [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. For example, the domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the efficient PERC182 battery cell was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W [5][7]. - The registration of warehouse receipts has accelerated recently, with 310 new lots added on that day, and the total warehouse receipts reached 450 lots [7]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, use range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging when the price is high. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [4] - Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage strategy for SHFE aluminium: Positive spread arbitrage [4] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminium, the spot market has strong consumption with rising spot premiums and continued inventory drawdown, but the approaching traditional off - season and potential end of export rush may limit further upward price movement. Overseas factors and inventory changes need attention [3]. - For alumina, the spot follows the strong trend of the futures. Although there are concerns about bauxite supply due to Guinea mine disturbances, the supply surplus expectation remains. Attention should be paid to bauxite offshore data from Guinea [3]. Summary by Related Content Aluminium Data - Aluminium spot prices: On May 21, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminium price was 20,310 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminium price was 20,240 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminium price was 20,210 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminium futures: On May 21, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminium opened at 20,135 yuan/ton, closed at 20,190 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton or 0.65% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 116,735 lots, an increase of 10,293 lots, and open interest was 200,224 lots, an increase of 458 lots [1]. - Aluminium inventory: As of May 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 585,000 tons. As of May 21, 2025, LME aluminium inventory was 388,900 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina Data - Alumina spot prices: On May 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,125 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,050 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,125 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - Alumina futures: On May 21, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,130 yuan/ton, closed at 3,246 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton or 3.11% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 2,483,203 lots, an increase of 538,141 lots, and open interest was 357,007 lots, an increase of 14,649 lots [2]. Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminium: In the spot market, inventories in three regions continued to decline, spot premiums rose, and consumption remained strong. Overseas, geopolitical conflicts and sanctions may have an impact. The approaching traditional off - season and potential end of export rush may slow down inventory drawdown. Aluminium rod production is strong, while the production of aluminium sheets, strips and foils has slightly weakened but remains at a high level [3]. - Alumina: 3,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guangxi today at a spot cash ex - factory price of 3,200 yuan/ton. The spot market followed the strong trend of the futures, which was driven by disturbances in the Guinean bauxite mine. Although there was a large increase in bauxite imports from January to April, there are concerns about the expansion of restrictions [3].