美元指数企稳反弹，利率预期仍存不确定性 BCR每周金融市场回顾：美元企稳反弹，资产价格波动加剧 2025年7月第一周，全球金融市场围绕美联储政策预期、特朗普政府贸易政策、地缘政治动态等多个核 心变量展开博弈。美元指数整体震荡上行，避险与通胀预期并存推动贵金属维持强势，而原油和股市则 呈现分化走势。BCR为您梳理本周关键市场动向与趋势分析。 受特朗普加征关税威胁影响，加之市场对美联储降息路径存在分歧，美元指数本周震荡上扬，一度逼近 98关口，最终收于97.83，录得三周来首次周线级上涨，涨幅0.9%。当前，投资者密切关注美联储7月会 议纪要释放的信号，尽管部分委员支持降息，但整体态度仍显谨慎，政策前景存在较大不确定性。 澳元兑美元持续反弹，得益于澳洲联储意外维持利率不变，市场对未来政策转向的押注升温。英镑则录 得六连跌，反映出英国经济增长与通胀前景的双重压力。欧元则因欧洲央行官员偏鸽言论而承压。美元 兑日元则在周初上行后转入震荡，本周累计上涨近2%。 尽管特朗普再度挥舞关税"大棒"，全球风险偏好维持回暖态势。以英伟达为代表的科技巨头市值持续走 高，英伟达市值突破4万亿美元带动纳指与标普500指数一度刷新历史新高 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - **CFTC Positioning**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [26]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [29]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons on July 11, while the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, geopolitical disturbances, and the US proposing a 50% copper tariff, the market volatility will intensify [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall analysis of copper includes multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main player positions, with different indicators showing different trends [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact on copper prices are not elaborated [3]. Daily Summary - A table is provided to show the intermediate price, change, type, total quantity, and increase/decrease of copper in different places, but the specific data is not filled in [5]. Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, and on July 11, the copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons [2]. Bonded Warehouse Inventory - The bonded warehouse inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fees - The processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025, and specific data for China's annual supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 are provided [19][21].

俄罗斯总统普京当地时间13日在"俄罗斯-1频道"播出的《莫斯科·克里姆林宫·普京》中透露，俄罗斯与 西方矛盾的根源在于地缘政治，而非同先前料想和显现的那样是苏联的意识形态。 ...

尽管许多人可能对印度能在国际上挑战美国表示支持，但在当前的国际环境中，印度的这些举动实际上可能对中国产生负面影响。国际形势如今变得动荡不 安，虽然现行的国际秩序是由西方主导的，但它仍然在一定程度上为世界带来了相对的和平与稳定。而这种稳定对中国的发展至关重要。中国正是在相对和 平的外部环境下，借助全球化的浪潮，迅速融入国际产业链，实现了经济的高速增长和综合国力的大幅提升。 近期，面对美国再次挥舞"关税大棒"，印度工商部长的一句话让中国人听得异常熟悉："印度将从实力出发与美国展开谈判。"在特朗普政府威胁加征26%的 惩罚性关税时，印度不仅没有屈服，反而果断地拒绝了与美国的谈判，坚决不开放农业与乳制品市场，还反过来威胁要对美国商品加征报复性关税。这一 刻，印度坚定的姿态，仿佛是想要告诉世界：即使坐上谈判桌，新德里也有足够的底气与美国对话，决不低头。 那么，印度为何敢在这个关键时刻掀翻美国的谈判桌，显得如此强硬？ 双方的博弈犹如刀锋相对，形势紧张而充满压力。美国要求印度放宽转基因作物市场准入，并降低汽车零部件关税，而印度则始终坚守两条不可逾越的"红 线"：农业与乳制品市场一寸也不让。这背后不仅是数以亿计的印度农民生计 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Strong economic data and a rebound in the US dollar index have put pressure on gold prices, leading to a drop below key support levels [1] - Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation concerns have increased safe-haven demand, causing gold prices to rebound after hitting a low [1] - Technical indicators show short-term support for gold, with upward momentum in moving averages, but resistance remains above [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have surged due to technical breakthroughs, inflows from trade war-related safe-haven investments, and expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve [4] - Key resistance for silver is at $37.62, with a potential breakout leading to increased buying interest, while $40 serves as the next psychological resistance [4] - The correlation between silver and gold fundamentals is strong, and the bullish sentiment for silver is expected to continue as long as trade tensions and Fed rate cut expectations persist [4]

Group 1 - The company forecasts a net loss of approximately 200 million yuan for the current period, with a range of expected losses between 400 million yuan and 270 million yuan [1] - The previous year's total profit was a loss of 369.49 million yuan, with a net loss attributable to the parent company's owners of 296.48 million yuan [1] - The earnings per share for the previous year was reported at -0.0693 yuan [1] Group 2 - The primary reason for the expected loss is the impact of geopolitical tensions and a continued downturn in the global economic environment, leading to a significant drop in natural rubber prices [1] - The company did realize substantial non-recurring gains from government land compensation projects during the current period [1]

Core Insights - Russia is facing severe challenges in ship propulsion, natural gas transportation, and power generation, highlighting its dependency on Western technology, particularly in gas turbine systems [3][6] - The root of this predicament can be traced back to the post-Soviet era, where Russia failed to maintain its gas turbine development capabilities while Ukraine advanced in this field [5][6] - The geopolitical landscape has shifted, with Russia's energy reliance now heavily tied to China, emphasizing the importance of core technologies in modern industrial systems [6][12] Gas Turbine Dependency - The Russian Navy's 11356-class frigates rely on Ukrainian-designed M7N1 gas turbines, leading to significant operational limitations due to supply disruptions following the Crimea incident [3] - The Nord Stream pipeline's 43 compressor stations, 27 of which depend on Siemens gas turbines, face maintenance challenges due to Western sanctions, impacting gas delivery efficiency [3] Technological Advancements in China - China has made significant strides in gas turbine technology, acquiring full technical documentation and production rights for the UGT-25000 through a technology transfer agreement with Ukraine [8] - The Harbin Turbine Factory successfully localized single-crystal turbine blades, improving the lifespan from 30,000 hours to 50,000 hours and enhancing thermal efficiency from 36.5% to 39.2% [8] - The GT-25000 gas turbine has been deployed in major projects, such as the Arctic LNG project, demonstrating superior efficiency compared to Russian alternatives [9] Competitive Landscape - China's advancements in gas turbine technology are challenging established players like Siemens and General Electric, with the Shanghai Electric AE94.3K achieving a 51% combined cycle efficiency [10] - The establishment of a complete industrial chain in China has led to breakthroughs in critical technologies, which Russia currently lacks [10] Geopolitical Implications - The loss of Ukrainian technology and deteriorating relations with the U.S. have forced Russia to acknowledge its reliance on China for gas turbine technology, marking a significant shift in the global gas turbine market [12]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to the requested analysis

Group 1: Major Asset Insights - Gold is expected to continue its bull market, with a mid-term target raised to $4200 due to geopolitical tensions and potential Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year [2][5][26] - Oil prices are likely to remain in the $60-70 range, with a risk of dropping below $55, as OPEC+ plans to increase production amid a shift towards supply surplus [2][27][37] - Copper prices are projected to rise above $5.30 due to tightening global inventories, despite uncertainties related to tariff policies [2][5][40] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by the resolution of tariff issues and anticipated Fed rate cuts, with a bullish sentiment returning [3][41] - The S&P 500 has regained its bullish momentum, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed later this year [3][41][42] Group 3: Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown significant gains, with a potential to break above 42500, driven by foreign capital inflows and improving economic indicators [3][43][45] - Japan's economic recovery is attracting international investment, with a low interest rate environment supporting corporate growth [3][43][45] Group 4: Macroeconomic Outlook - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with Q1 GDP growth at 2.1%, the lowest in eight quarters, and a potential for Fed rate cuts in response to economic conditions [11][20] - Inflation in the U.S. is showing signs of decline, but tariff policies may lead to a resurgence in inflation later this year [15][20][18] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and other countries are expected to ease trade tensions, with a likelihood of reaching agreements that could stabilize the global economic environment [22][23] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on global markets is anticipated to diminish, although minor frictions may still cause short-term volatility in asset prices [22][23]