Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: March 22, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The cost of synthetic rubber has increased, and it is expected to operate strongly in the short term. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to significant intraday volatility, and trading logic changes rapidly following geopolitical news. [2][4][6] - The fundamentals of butadiene in China have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Synthetic Rubber Supply - During the cycle, the production of cis - butadiene rubber faced high - cost pressure and significant losses. Due to factors such as tight raw material supply and regular maintenance, the production capacity utilization rate decreased. The output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 26,300 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 16.04%, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.53 percentage points. [4] - Some private cis - butadiene rubber plants in Shandong may further reduce their loads or shut down for maintenance in the near future. [4] Demand - It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will remain at the current level in the next cycle, with little overall fluctuation. Some enterprises will maintain a high start - up rate to complete quarterly tasks, and short - term start - up enthusiasm is relatively high. [4] - The substitution demand for synthetic rubber is expected to weaken rapidly as the price of synthetic rubber is higher than that of the No. 20 rubber main contract. [4] Inventory - As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 42,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. [4] Valuation - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 15,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The upward valuation pressure has decreased significantly, and the lower valuation is mainly anchored to the butadiene price. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Strong in the short term; the upper pressure is 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton (butadiene spot quotation). [6] - Cross - variety: The position of short NR/RU and long BR is still in the driving stage and can be held (flexibly stop profit according to geopolitical situations). [6] 2. Butadiene Supply - In the current cycle (March 13 - 19, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 111,100 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11%. Next week, the estimated weekly output is about 108,600 tons, continuing to decline. [7] Demand - In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants increases, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to gradually decline. [7] - The demand for butadiene in ABS is expected to remain constant, with limited incremental demand. [7] - The negative feedback in the SBS industry is obvious, the industry start - up rate has declined, and the demand for butadiene has decreased. [7] Inventory - In the current cycle (March 12 - 18, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory continued to decline, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 6.33% month - on - month. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.09% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory decreased by 10.97% month - on - month. [7] Viewpoint - The price of butadiene in Asia is strong. Overall, the fundamentals of butadiene in China have improved, and it is strong in the short term. [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating, particularly with attacks on energy facilities, leading to a strong short-term outlook for chemical products [6]. - The WTI crude oil futures price decreased by 2.77%, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 5.45% during the week of March 13 to March 20, 2026 [6]. - The Iranian geopolitical situation remains tense, with significant implications for oil prices and supply dynamics in the region [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The report highlights the rising risks associated with energy facilities in the Middle East, which are expected to keep oil and petrochemical prices strong in the short term [6]. - Key events include a significant reduction in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian military actions in response to attacks on its oil facilities [6]. - The report anticipates continued supply issues due to production cuts from major oil-producing countries in the Middle East [6]. Fluorochemicals - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a surge in raw material prices, positively impacting fluorochemical products [6]. - The production quota for HFCs has increased by 5,963 tons year-on-year, with specific increases for HFC-134a, HFC-245fa, and HFC-32 [6]. - The domestic market is seeing a recovery in demand, particularly in the refrigeration sector, supported by government policies [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, particularly companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, which have strong production capabilities and cost advantages [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, companies leading in the production of third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources are recommended for investment [7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted, with a positive outlook due to inventory reduction trends and domestic market recovery [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PE spot market price fluctuated and strengthened. The intraday basis quotation fluctuated and weakened. The basis quotation in North China on Friday was around 05 - 520. The price of polyethylene is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction [50]. - Upstream device load reduction has increased, which will have a relatively large impact on the expected output, with some upstream delaying the delivery plan. The spot trading in the middle - stream has slightly deteriorated, and some agents continue to sell off due to poor spot liquidity. The situation of downstream panic - buying has eased, and the inventory has gradually become abundant after the previous stock - replenishment [7]. - Pay attention to the intraday basis trading opportunities, and the 5 - 9 positive spread should temporarily leave the market. Adopt a short - term strong - volatile thinking, but beware of correction risks. Consider buying put options [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - The main issue is the impact of geopolitical disturbances on the polyethylene market. The price is in a strong and volatile state, and the upstream production is affected by device load reduction, while the downstream demand has changed after stock - replenishment [1][7] 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - **Production**: This week's output slightly decreased from 683,200 tons last week to 664,000 tons, a decrease of 19,200 tons. Next week and the week after, it is expected to continue to decrease due to device load reduction [5]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume this week remained at 232,300 tons, the export volume was 25,000 tons, and there was no change compared with last week. In February, the import volume was 1,028,400 tons and the export volume was 81,100 tons [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Apparent Demand**: This week's apparent demand increased slightly from 861,900 tons last week to 922,000 tons, an increase of 60,200 tons [5]. - **Downstream**: The downstream panic - buying situation has eased, and the inventory has gradually become abundant after the previous stock - replenishment [7]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Total Inventory**: This week, there was a small - scale destocking, with the total inventory decreasing from 1,238,300 tons last week to 1,187,600 tons, a decrease of 50,700 tons [5]. - **Upstream Inventory**: The upstream inventory decreased from 575,400 tons last week to 568,300 tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons. Among them, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased from 505,000 tons to 502,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons; the coal - chemical industry inventory decreased from 70,400 tons to 66,300 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons [5]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: The mid - stream inventory decreased from 662,900 tons last week to 619,300 tons, a decrease of 43,600 tons [5]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The crude oil price increased significantly from $103.14 last week to $108.65, driving the cost to rise significantly. The oil - based PE cost increased from 9,860 yuan/ton to 10,273 yuan/ton. The coal - based PE cost remained unchanged at 6,395 yuan/ton [6]. - **Profit**: The overall profit of the oil - chemical end decreased from - 3,806 yuan/ton to - 4,779 yuan/ton, a decrease of 973 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - based PE decreased from 1,805 yuan/ton to 1,705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The weighted profit of PE by production capacity decreased from - 2,593 yuan/ton to - 3,429 yuan/ton, a decrease of 836 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.5 Price Difference - **Basis**: The basis has fluctuated greatly recently. The North China basis decreased from - 170 to - 520, the East China basis decreased from 180 to - 320, and the South China basis decreased from 380 to - 20 [6]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread began to weaken. The 1 - 5 inter - month spread increased from - 550 to - 496, the 5 - 9 inter - month spread decreased from 271 to 214 [6]. - **Variety Spread**: The HD - LL spread in North China decreased from 0 to - 130, and the LD - LL spread in North China decreased from 3,050 to 2,800 [6]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - The basis has shown significant fluctuations. The North China, East China, and South China bases have all weakened. The inter - month spread has also changed, with the 5 - 9 spread showing a downward trend, and the 1 - 5 spread slightly increasing. The variety spreads such as HD - LL and LD - LL have also changed to some extent [6] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Short - term Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong and volatile, but there is a risk of correction [7]. - **Strategies**: Pay attention to intraday basis trading opportunities, and the 5 - 9 positive spread should temporarily leave the market. Adopt a short - term strong - volatile thinking, but beware of correction risks. Consider buying put options [7]

Economic Data - In January-February, major economic indicators showed recovery, with industrial added value increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in the previous period [4] - Retail sales also improved, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% in January-February, compared to 0.9% previously [4] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, a significant recovery from a decline of 3.8% in the previous period [4] Market Performance - Global equity markets mostly adjusted, with oil prices leading gains and gold and silver under pressure [5][9] - The S&P 500 and other major U.S. indices fell by 1%-3%, while the A-share market also saw a broad adjustment, with the small-cap index declining by 7.1% [2][5] - The communication sector led gains in the A-share market with a rise of 2.1%, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals saw declines exceeding 10% [9][10] Policy and Strategy - The report highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, which is impacting global energy supply and inflation expectations [2][3] - The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance, indicating that interest rate cuts will be conservative, with only one expected in 2026-2027 [2][3] - Domestic policies are focusing on financial strength and green energy transition, with initiatives to promote hydrogen energy and energy-efficient equipment [3] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that in the medium to long term, Chinese assets may benefit from their safe-haven attributes, particularly in sectors supported by policy and with clear growth prospects, such as energy, advanced manufacturing, and hard technology [3] - Attention is drawn to cyclical sectors benefiting from commodity price increases and strategic security needs, as well as advanced manufacturing sectors poised to benefit from global restocking [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The current oil prices exhibit high uncertainty, primarily driven by geopolitical conflicts. The U.S. is managing market expectations by releasing strategic reserves and lifting sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil, which has pressured prices downward. However, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains critical, and prices are expected to trend upward if the blockade continues beyond two months [17][18][19] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The oil and petrochemical sector underperformed against the Shanghai Composite Index, with a decline of 4.58%. The oil and gas resource index fell by 2.86%, while the refining and chemical index dropped by 5.20% [10][11] Oil Sector - As of March 20, WTI spot price was $98.23, down $0.48, while Brent was $117.08, up $13.4. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 6.156 million barrels, with a production rate of 13.668 million barrels per day [16][15] - The geopolitical situation remains tense, with the U.S. increasing military presence in the Middle East, which may lead to further price volatility [15][17] Refining Sector - The average refining margin for major refineries was 1826.41 yuan/ton, down 109.28 yuan/ton from the previous period. Independent refineries reported a negative margin of -79.27 yuan/ton, indicating significant pressure on profitability [14][15] Polyester Sector - The average profit level for polyester POY150D was 702.17 yuan/ton, down 49.89 yuan/ton. The market is under pressure from high costs and low demand, with inventory levels rising [15] Olefins Sector - The domestic ethylene market price averaged 9957 yuan/ton, up 4.49% from the previous week. However, demand is expected to decrease as downstream facilities implement production cuts [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends, alongside the supply-demand balance [2] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - Gold prices have decreased significantly, with SHFE gold down 8.97% to 1,039.22 CNY per gram and COMEX gold down 11.26% to 4,492.00 USD per ounce [8] - Silver prices also fell, with SHFE silver down 18.69% to 17,625 CNY per kilogram [9] Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline of 11.82% last week, underperforming major indices [14][16] Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper prices dropped by 5.55% to 94,740 CNY per ton on SHFE, while LME copper fell 6.66% to 11,929.5 USD per ton [22] - Aluminum prices decreased by 3.77% to 24,020 CNY per ton on SHFE, and LME aluminum fell 6.53% to 3,215 USD per ton [10] - The report notes a significant reduction in inventories for various metals, with SHFE copper inventory at 41.1 thousand tons, down 5.15% [24] Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks macroeconomic indicators, noting that the U.S. CPI for February was 2.4% year-on-year, while China's CPI was 1.3% [28][29] Precious Metals - The report highlights ongoing low inventory levels for precious metals, which continue to disrupt market stability [48] Copper Market - The copper market is characterized by a "hardcore" supply-demand dynamic that provides price support, despite geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [10][62] Energy Metals - The lithium carbonate market shows strong demand, with continuous inventory depletion, while cobalt prices remain high due to tight supply [11]

Core Insights - The current volatility in gold prices is influenced by geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates, and inflation concerns, with the Federal Reserve's recent stance on interest rates being a significant factor [1][2] - Investors are tactically rotating towards yield-bearing assets, but this does not indicate a long-term shift away from gold, which remains a strategic asset in portfolios [2][1] - The gold market is experiencing fragmentation, and there is a call for improved infrastructure to facilitate better access and digitization of gold, which could enhance its role in the financial ecosystem [2][3] Market Dynamics - The geopolitical climate, particularly conflicts in the Middle East, is contributing to the short-term volatility in gold prices, while structural economic issues like inflation are expected to drive long-term demand for gold [1][2] - Gold has appreciated over 135% in the last 18 to 24 months, prompting some investors to take profits and shift into yielding assets [1] - The concept of "gold as a service" aims to modernize the gold market, making it more accessible and efficient through digital channels [2][3] Future Opportunities - The potential for broader adoption of gold as a collateral asset in digital markets is significant, which could enhance its liquidity and utility for institutional investors [4][5] - The industry is encouraged to unify and streamline the infrastructure surrounding gold to facilitate its digitization and improve market efficiency [2][6] - There is a belief that both gold and cryptocurrencies can coexist in the investment landscape, with each serving different roles and use cases [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the Middle East energy landscape due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting Saudi Arabia's alternative oil export strategy through the Red Sea and the associated risks and limitations [3][5]. Group 1: Saudi Arabia's Oil Export Strategy - Saudi Arabia is utilizing a 1,200 km pipeline to reroute oil exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, achieving record export levels exceeding 4 million barrels per day, significantly higher than the previous 1.4 million barrels per day [2]. - The current export volume aims to compensate for the pre-war export level of approximately 7 million barrels per day [2][7]. - Approximately 90% of the oil exported from Yanbu is loaded onto Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), which must navigate through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait due to their deep draft [2]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - The Houthis in Yemen have threatened to block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which could further complicate oil transportation routes and increase risks for shipping [2][5]. - The Houthis' limited capability to fully blockade the Red Sea is attributed to their depletion of advanced weaponry and the presence of U.S. military forces in the region [5][6]. - The Red Sea route is not a comprehensive solution, as over 90% of oil exports from the Persian Gulf rely on the Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea/Suez Canal can only divert a small fraction of this volume [6][8]. Group 3: Impact on Oil Production and Prices - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a drastic reduction in oil transport volumes from approximately 20 million barrels per day to "extremely low levels" due to the blockade [8]. - The blockade has led to a reduction in oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day across Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait [8]. - If the blockade persists, it could lead to a significant tightening of global oil supply, with potential long-term impacts on oil prices and market stability [8][10]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The article suggests that the ongoing conflict and military actions in the region are influenced by U.S. political pressures and the need to maintain energy security [9][15]. - The potential for a broader conflict remains, but current actions indicate a level of restraint from involved parties, with a focus on avoiding escalation [10][12]. - The future of energy markets may see a shift towards more diversified shipping routes and energy policies as countries reassess their dependencies on Middle Eastern oil [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Panama government's forceful takeover of two ports operated by Cheung Kong is not only a commercial dispute but also a reflection of great power competition [1] Group 1: Company Situation - Cheung Kong's Managing Director, Li Ka-shing, stated that despite the significant challenge of the port takeover, the company will continue negotiations for the planned port sale [1] - The company agreed last year to sell 43 ports for $23 billion to a consortium led by BlackRock, but the deal has faced complications due to the involvement of China Merchants, which sought greater control [3] - The situation resembles a game of hot potato, with Cheung Kong being forced to relinquish operational control while seeking a breakthrough in negotiations [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The Panama Canal's strategic value as a key waterway between the Americas and Asia makes the control of Cheung Kong's ports a matter of geopolitical interest [3] - The Panama government's actions are supported by the United States, indicating a strong political backing that complicates Cheung Kong's ability to resolve the issue through commercial negotiations [5] - The reliance on either Chinese or Western support poses a long-term challenge for Cheung Kong, necessitating a careful balance between national and commercial interests [5] Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Cheung Kong may need to reconsider its role in this geopolitical game and explore more flexible development paths, such as alliances or innovation, to mitigate risks and expand markets [7] - The company must find a balance between protecting its interests and adapting to a dynamic market environment to achieve sustainable development [7]

Core Insights - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline of over 8% week-over-week, marking the sharpest weekly loss in more than 40 years, with spot trading at $4580/oz [3][8] - The Federal Reserve has maintained overnight borrowing rates and adopted a cautious "wait and see" approach, dampening expectations for near-term rate cuts, which has removed a supportive factor for gold [6][8] Market Dynamics - Weaker speculative buying and strong outflows from gold-backed ETFs have pressured gold prices, alongside liquidations by commodities trading advisors (CTAs) reallocating funds or holding cash in USD [3][4][8] - The US Dollar continues to strengthen, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers and benefiting domestic and foreign equity investments [5][8] Geopolitical Context - The ongoing conflict involving Iran contributes to global uncertainty, but this risk-off environment has favored the US Dollar more than gold at this time [4][8] - Despite the recent decline, gold prices remain above their starting point for 2026, with future rally potential highly dependent on geopolitical developments and rate expectations [8]