Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月07日 宏观经济数据前瞻 2025 年 4 月宏观经济指标预期一览 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2025 年 4 月国内宏观经济数据将在 2025 年 5 月陆续公布，国信证券经济研究所提前给出 2025 年 4 月主要 经济数据的预测值。 以下是 2025 年 4 月主要经济数据预测： 结论：4 月国内经济增长动能有所回落但仍显稳健。预计 4 月国内 CPI 环比约为 0.1%，CPI 同比持平上月 的-0.1%；4 月 PPI 环比或约为-0.5%，PPI ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in global financial markets, industrial supply - demand, and macroeconomic news during the 2025 May Day holiday, covering commodities, currencies, and key economic indicators in both international and domestic markets. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 May Day Foreign Market Changes - **Commodity Prices**: During the May Day holiday, there were fluctuations in various commodity prices. For example, BMD palm oil fell 2.12%, NYMEX crude oil dropped 4.74%, and COMEX gold rose 1.77%. The dollar index rose 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Index increased 1.71%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.95% [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The Argentine peso against the US dollar had a 2.33% decline, while other major currencies like the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah remained stable against the US dollar [2]. 2025 May Day Industrial Supply - Demand - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's April palm oil production is expected to increase, with different institutions' data showing growth ranging from 14.74% to 24.62%. Export data from different institutions vary, with some showing an increase and others a decrease. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in May, and India's palm oil imports in April decreased by 24% [3][4][5]. - **Soybeans**: As of April 29, about 15% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, a 6% reduction from the previous week. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than expected. US soybean export sales increased, and Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 1.684 billion tons [6][7][10]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 21.6% in the week ending April 27, and Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 620,000 tons [13]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Agricultural Products**: On April 30, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 85% compared to the previous trading day. The opening rate of domestic oil mills decreased by 0.49%, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" dropped 0.27 points [15]. 2025 May Day Macroeconomic News - **International News** - **US Economy**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in May is 97.3%. The US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate was 3.5%, and the Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was - 0.3%. The April non - farm payrolls were 177,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2% [16][17]. - **OPEC**: OPEC's April oil production decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.724 million barrels per day. OPEC + plans to increase production in June and possibly again in July [19]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate was 1.2%, the April CPI annual rate was 2.2%, and the May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [19][20]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On April 30, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.2014, down 15 points. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 422.8 billion yuan [22]. - **Economic Indicators**: China's April manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [22].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: May 6 - 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: Recently, the marginal improvement of macro - economic data has weakened the safe - haven demand, short - term easing of trade frictions, and technical adjustments have led to a high - level decline in gold prices. However, the long - term support logic remains unchanged, with the US fiscal deficit and global central bank gold purchases providing fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the May non - farm payroll data and the change in the Fed's balance - sheet reduction rhythm. If geopolitical risks resurface or inflation rebounds, precious metals may regain upward momentum [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: As the May Day holiday approached, it was necessary to pay attention to risks and it was recommended to wait and see [10]. - This Week's Strategy: Gold still has short - term callback pressure. Wait for the right time to configure and buy call options. The lower support for the main gold contract 2506 is 758 - 765, and the upper pressure is 829 - 836 [11]. 3. Related Data - The report shows data on Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a sideways consolidation, and it may be near the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Silver has "dual attributes". When macro - uncertainty increases, although its safe - haven attribute can bring certain positive factors, its industrial attribute makes it also dragged down by the weakening economic growth expectations. Currently, the slowdown of global manufacturing growth and the weakening demand expectations in industries such as electronics and photovoltaics further suppress the fundamentals of silver. In the long - term, the continuous global silver supply - demand gap, China's stimulus plan and the growth of industrial demand, and the enhanced safe - haven attribute of silver due to geopolitical risks support the silver price under the resonance of multiple factors [32]. - Mid - term Strategy: Shanghai Silver will continue to consolidate sideways. The expected operating range of the main Shanghai Silver contract 2506 is 6900 - 8800, and it is recommended to adopt a grid trading strategy [32]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: As the May Day holiday approached, it was necessary to pay attention to risks and it was recommended to wait and see. It was expected that the main silver contract 2506 would fluctuate in a large range, and a grid trading strategy was recommended within the range of 6900 - 8800 [35]. - This Week's Strategy: Not clearly stated in the provided content other than the last - week's related information 3. Related Data - The report shows data on Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][46][48]

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Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The USD/CNY exchange rate showed a weak and volatile trend from late April to early May, with the stage high around 7.35 and then falling back to 7.27. The offshore RMB appreciated rapidly during the May Day holiday due to multiple factors such as improved Sino - US trade expectations, a callback in the US dollar index, and a warming of market risk appetite. The US dollar index fell about 4.5% in April, a relatively large monthly decline in recent years. The implied volatility of options first rose and then fell, and the implied volatility of call options declined, making the RMB exchange rate more two - way fluctuating [4]. - In April, China's macro data weakened month - on - month but was better than expected overall, while US growth data fell short of expectations. China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0, indicating short - term pressure on the manufacturing industry, but the high - tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion range of 51.5, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4, with the service industry's recovery momentum continuing. In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in April slipped to 48.7, and the first - quarter GDP was - 0.3%, driving the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index significantly lower; during the same period, China's CESI continued to rise and was higher than that of the US at the end of April [4]. - The Sino - US interest rate spread remained inverted, the short - end interest rate spread became more stable in its fluctuations, and more statements on trade policies brought short - term disturbances to the exchange rate. The better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in April slightly pushed up the short - end yield of US Treasuries, while the yield of Chinese government bonds remained low due to policy expectations, pushing the spread structure to stabilize at a high level. The basis and swap points of USD/CNY rose simultaneously, indicating that the market was re - evaluating the exchange rate path. Sino - US frequent statements on tariff issues from April to May, although no clear policies were implemented, strengthened the policy game signal and affected market pricing and trading behavior [5]. - The deficit in foreign exchange settlement and sales narrowed, and the capital flow improved. In March 2025, the deficit in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales dropped to $2 billion, a significant reduction from February. The willingness to settle and purchase foreign exchange in the forward market both increased, with the settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts rising to 50.51% and the purchase rate of foreign exchange payments rising to 58.88%. The surplus in banks' foreign - related payments and receipts on behalf of customers reached $49.2 billion, and the net inflow of funds under the goods trade increased 1.2 times year - on - year, still being the main supporting force. The capital account deficit narrowed to $13 billion, with foreign investors continuously net - buying RMB bonds, and the allocation of bonds and equities improved simultaneously, indicating that foreign funds' preference for RMB assets had recovered [5]. - The RMB is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to enter a period of shock consolidation. Against the background of the callback of the US dollar index, the repair of the Sino - US expectation gap, and the warming of market risk appetite, the RMB has been relatively stable. Looking ahead, the exchange rate direction will still be comprehensively affected by Sino - US trade policies, signs of a slowdown in the US economy, and related policy expectations, and the stage - by - stage fluctuations may intensify. Short - term trend judgment still needs to closely monitor event evolution and data feedback [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. USD/CNY Exchange Rate - General Situation - From late April to early May, the USD/CNY exchange rate was generally weak and volatile, falling from a high of around 7.35 in mid - April to around 7.27 in early May, with the RMB strengthening intermittently. The offshore RMB appreciated rapidly during the May Day holiday, reflecting the combined effects of Sino - US trade easing expectations, US dollar adjustment, and a warming of market risk appetite. The US dollar index continued to decline in April, with a monthly decline of about 4.5%, one of the larger monthly declines in recent years. The decline was mainly affected by the weak economic growth in the first quarter of the US and the market's uncertain expectations about the Fed's interest - rate cut path this year [10]. 2. Volume - Price Observation - From April to early May 2025, the volatility of the USD/CNY options market generally increased, but signs of a local decline began to appear. Compared with March, the implied volatility from April to early May was generally stronger, indicating that the market's expectation of exchange - rate fluctuations had increased. However, in early May, the implied volatility of the call side of USD/CNY options declined, narrowing the gap with the put side, suggesting that the market's expectation of the US dollar's unilateral appreciation had weakened [17]. - The RMB counter - cyclical factor has been running below 10% steadily, indicating a stable exchange - rate operation. The 3 - month interest rates of offshore and onshore RMB have remained inverted, indicating a tight supply of offshore funds. However, in May, the inversion margin narrowed slightly, reflecting a marginal easing of cross - border liquidity tension [17]. - In early May, the yield of US Treasuries was generally higher than the average in April, especially at the short end, and the market's bet on the Fed's short - term policy shift has weakened. Nevertheless, the yield of 10 - year US Treasuries has fallen from the high in April, indicating that long - term interest rates are still in an adjustment channel. The yield of Chinese government bonds was weaker than last week and last quarter, and the market's expectation of further flexible adjustment of domestic policies has increased [17]. - The basis and swap points of USD/CNY generally showed an upward trend, reflecting the market's need to re - price the exchange - rate fluctuation direction in the short term under the influence of the Sino - US interest - rate spread and market risk - aversion demand. The change in the exchange - rate price is still coupled with the macro - expectation, but the directional signal is not clear, and it mainly shows structural adjustment and defensive pricing for event catalysis in the short term [18]. 3. Macroeconomic - Chinese Macroeconomic Data - In April 2025, China's economic sentiment indicators generally declined, but domestic demand, high - tech manufacturing, and the service industry maintained a certain degree of resilience. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling back into the contraction range, indicating a phased decline in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. However, the high - tech manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, reflecting the continued structural optimization trend [32]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, slightly lower than the previous month but still in the expansion range, indicating that the service and construction industries generally maintained a recovery momentum. The new order and business expectation indicators increased month - on - month, indicating an improvement in market demand and business confidence. However, the employment index remained below the critical point, indicating that the recovery of business employment was still slow. In general, the composite PMI output index in April was 50.1%, lower than the previous month, indicating that the economy generally maintained expansion but with a slowdown in momentum [32]. 4. Macroeconomic - US Macroeconomic Data - In April 2025, the US macro data presented a combination of "stable employment, declining manufacturing, and policy wait - and - see", and the market's expectation of the Fed's policy path has been adjusted. The non - farm payroll data in April showed that the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, higher than the expected 138,000, indicating that the labor market remained resilient. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, the same as the previous value, and the labor - force participation rate rose to 62.6%, with the participation rate of the core labor - force group aged 25 - 54 reaching a seven - month high, reflecting a solid employment foundation. However, the non - farm payroll data for March and February were revised down by a total of 58,000, indicating that the previous employment growth may have been overestimated [35]. - In terms of manufacturing, the ISM manufacturing PMI in April dropped to 48.7, back into the contraction range, the largest monthly decline this year. Detailed data showed that the new order and output indicators both weakened significantly, and the employment index declined for the third consecutive month. The increase in input costs and order uncertainty caused by tariff policies are weakening enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory and expand production. The final value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 50.2, also lower than the initial value and expectations, further verifying the lack of growth momentum in the manufacturing industry [36]. 5. RMB Three - Factor Fitting - As of early May, the Sino - US Treasury yield spread generally remained inverted. Recently, the short - end yield of US Treasuries rebounded rapidly due to better - than - expected non - farm payrolls, while the yield of Chinese government bonds remained low under the influence of policy expectations, leading to a slight stabilization after an increase in the short - end spread inversion margin [38]. - From April to early May 2025, there were more statements related to Sino - US trade policies, and the market's attention to tariff - policy changes increased. As of early May, neither side had announced a specific negotiation schedule or clear policy documents, but both had shown a willingness to communicate. The market generally believed that there was still uncertainty about the pace of policy implementation. Under this background, the external - demand sub - index of China's manufacturing industry weakened in April, and the US ISM manufacturing survey also showed that tariffs had an impact on the cost side and delivery rhythm [45][46]. - In April 2025, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) showed an expanding difference in Sino - US macro - expectations. China's CESI rebounded and turned positive, reflecting that the domestic macro data were generally better than expected, mainly due to the improvement in high - tech manufacturing, non - manufacturing business activities, and export data, which drove the market's expectation of short - term domestic - demand repair and policy support to improve. In contrast, the US CESI fell from a high in March and continued to decline in April, falling into negative territory, mainly dragged down by lower - than - expected first - quarter GDP, weak retail, and ISM manufacturing data, indicating a significant adjustment in the market's expectation of US growth momentum [47]. 6. Capital Flows from the Perspective of Foreign - Exchange Settlement and Sales - Foreign - Exchange Market Supply - Demand Balance - The deficit in foreign - exchange settlement and sales narrowed significantly, and market expectations became more stable. In March 2025, the bank's foreign - exchange settlement was $189.6 billion, and sales were $191.6 billion, with the deficit narrowing to $2 billion from $10.4 billion in February. This change reflects the phased stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the rationalization of enterprises' and residents' foreign - exchange purchase behavior, and the alleviation of the market's concern about the RMB's unilateral depreciation [49]. - The behavior of forward foreign - exchange settlement and sales was adjusted, and the demand for hedging increased. In March, the willingness for forward foreign - exchange settlement and sales in the market adjusted structurally. After excluding the performance factor, the settlement rate of foreign - exchange receipts increased to 50.51% month - on - month, indicating an enhanced willingness of export enterprises to lock in exchange rates. At the same time, the purchase rate of foreign - exchange payments increased to 58.88% month - on - month, indicating that enterprises actively increased their foreign - exchange purchase exposure to strengthen the hedging of US - dollar risks in the context of increasing trade and macro uncertainties [49]. - In March 2025, the bank's foreign - related income on behalf of customers was $692 billion, and payments were $642.8 billion, with a foreign - related payment - receipt surplus of $49.2 billion, further expanding from $29 billion in February. By item, the net inflow of cross - border funds under the goods trade in the first quarter reached $206.3 billion, a 1.2 - fold increase year - on - year, still being the main source of funds. The net outflow of cross - border funds in the service trade increased 25% year - on - year, with the outflow under travel increasing 12%, but the overall situation remained controllable. The stability of the cross - border payment - receipt structure has been enhanced, providing a basic support for the foreign - exchange market [50]. - The capital account deficit continued to narrow, and the deficit in March narrowed to $300 million from $13 billion in February. The securities investment account turned into a surplus, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate bonds increased significantly. Data showed that from February to March, foreign investors cumulatively net - bought $26.9 billion of domestic bonds, an 84% increase year - on - year; from April 1 to 18, they further net - bought $33.2 billion, maintaining a high - speed allocation rhythm. The allocation of equities also stabilized, indicating that foreign investors' confidence in RMB assets had recovered [52].

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Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a period of consolidation, influenced by multiple factors, as it awaits key data for direction [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are dominating market sentiment, with a potential reduction of 50 basis points in 2025, which weakens the dollar and supports gold [3][4] - Recent risk events have dampened safe-haven demand for gold, as market sentiment improves due to reduced concerns over tariffs and signs of easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation [4] - Macroeconomic data, such as the rise in the US March Composite PMI from 51.6 to 53.5, has caused temporary fluctuations in the dollar, but overall economic concerns remain, with upcoming consumer confidence and new home sales data being crucial for gold's outlook [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The psychological level of $3000 serves as a battleground for bulls and bears, with potential support at $2982-$2978 if this level is breached [7] - Bollinger Bands indicate a narrowing volatility, suggesting a period of consolidation, while long-term moving averages confirm an upward trend [8] - Momentum indicators like MACD show signs of weakening bullish momentum, with a potential for technical selling if certain thresholds are crossed [9] Group 3: Future Trend Outlook - The medium to long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, but short-term adjustments are expected, particularly if the PCE data reinforces rate cut expectations [11] - A breakthrough above $3058 could lead to a move towards the $3100 level, contingent on confirming bullish signals from technical indicators [11] - Conversely, stronger-than-expected US economic data could diminish the urgency for rate cuts, potentially leading to a deeper correction in gold prices [12]