Group 1: US Economic Situation - The US government shutdown began on October 1, 2023, due to unresolved disagreements between the Republican and Democratic parties regarding healthcare subsidies, leading to uncertainty in economic data releases[3] - The ADP employment data for September indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the lowest monthly performance since April 2023, which reflects significant impacts from tariff policies on the labor market[3][12] - Despite initial declines, the US dollar index rebounded by 0.8% from October 2 to October 7, reaching approximately 98.5, close to the previous high of 98.55 on September 25[3][12] Group 2: Eurozone and Japan Economic Challenges - The resignation of French Prime Minister Le Maire highlighted fiscal difficulties in the Eurozone, with France aiming to reduce its budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP by 2026 and further to about 3% by 2029[4][15] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in September, indicating a contraction, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI showed a recovery, suggesting that the worst impacts of tariff shocks on US production confidence may have passed[4][16][17] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi, is expected to pursue fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, causing the yen to depreciate significantly, with the USD/JPY exchange rate nearing 151, the lowest level since March 2023[5][20][21] Group 3: China's Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.8 in September, driven by a rebound in new export orders, although it remained below the expansion threshold of 50[6][23] - The new export orders index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8, indicating a short-term "export rush" amid the ongoing tariff negotiations with the US[6][23] - The production index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9, reflecting improved production expansion, although domestic demand remains weak[6][23][24]

Market Overview - Japanese stock market opened significantly higher, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing the 48,500 mark, closing at 48,449.85, up 1.05% for the day [3] - Notable individual stock performances include Fujikura, which surged over 7%, and other companies like Advantest, SoftBank Group, and DISCO also saw gains [3][4] Economic Indicators - Japan's foreign exchange reserves for September reached $1.3413 trillion, up from $1.3242 trillion previously [5] - Household spending in Japan for August increased by 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 1.2% growth, and showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% against an expected 0.1% [5] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to auction approximately 700 billion yen of 30-year government bonds, marking a market test for the new policies of the ruling party's president, Sanae Takaichi [5][6] Bond Market Dynamics - The Japanese long-term bond market is under pressure due to government debt reaching twice the GDP, with traditional buyers like life insurance companies showing reduced demand [6] - Goldman Sachs has warned that the election of Sanae Takaichi as the president of the ruling party may lead to increased volatility in Japan's long-term government bonds, potentially affecting bond markets in the US and UK as well [8] Gold Market Performance - Gold futures have reached a historic high, breaking the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 50% [9] - Spot gold also hit a record high at $3,973.56 per ounce amid ongoing concerns regarding the US government shutdown [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recurring government shutdowns in the U.S. have become a normalized event, with the latest occurring on October 1, 2025, impacting over 800,000 federal employees and delaying crucial economic data, yet the financial markets remain largely unaffected [2][3][4]. Group 1: Impact on Economic Data - The shutdown has led to the postponement of key economic reports such as non-farm payroll and CPI data, creating challenges for analysts who must rely on private data sources to estimate employment rates [3][4]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that a one-month shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.3 percentage points, with unemployment potentially rising to between 4.8% and 5% [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the shutdown, bond yields have shown minimal volatility, and the stock market continues to perform well, indicating a detachment from political events [3][4]. - Market participants appear to have developed a "selective blindness" towards political uncertainties, leading to a temporary reduction in market volatility [5]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The ongoing political dysfunction and inability to pass budgets are eroding government credibility, which could have long-term consequences for economic stability and investor trust [4][6]. - The U.S. public debt has surpassed $35 trillion, over 130% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential for a future financial crisis if political solutions remain ineffective [5][6]. Group 4: Global Trust and Currency Stability - The international standing of the U.S. dollar relies heavily on global trust in American institutions; frequent fiscal chaos may prompt other nations to diversify their reserves away from the dollar [6][8]. - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their holdings of gold and non-dollar assets, indicating a growing concern over the reliability of U.S. fiscal policy [6][8].

Economic Context - The September jobs report is missing due to the government shutdown, leaving policymakers without crucial economic data as the Federal Reserve considers its next interest rate move [1][2] - The Federal Reserve relies on economic data to set monetary policy, making the absence of key reports like retail sales and inflation data problematic for decision-making [3][4] Fiscal Policy and Economic Indicators - The fiscal deficit has decreased by approximately $400 billion on an annualized basis from February to August compared to the previous fiscal year, indicating a significant policy shift [6] - Population growth has experienced substantial fluctuations, impacting the neutral interest rate and making current monetary policy more restrictive [7][8] Interest Rate Decisions - The neutral rate is estimated to be around 0.5% in real terms, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should move towards this rate more quickly due to recent tightening of policy [8][9] - Concerns are raised about the risks of an economic slowdown if interest rates remain too tight for an extended period [9] Inflation Dynamics - Current inflation data shows significant increases in food prices and other essentials, complicating the justification for cutting interest rates [19][20] - Shelter costs, which are a major component of inflation, are expected to see disinflation due to a lag in average rent adjustments compared to market rents [22][23] Policy Criticism and Responses - Criticism from economists like Larry Summers highlights concerns about the potential inflationary impact of current policies, with a call for more cautious approaches [26][28] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts have not adversely affected the bond market, indicating a different economic landscape compared to previous years [17]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government reported a financial deficit of 67.6 billion HKD for the first five months of the fiscal year ending August 31, 2025 [1] - Total expenditure and revenue for the first five months were 311 billion HKD and 208.6 billion HKD, respectively [1] - The deficit was influenced by the timing of major income sources such as salaries tax and profits tax, which are primarily collected later in the fiscal year [1] Group 2 - The government issued bonds that generated 61.6 billion HKD in revenue and repaid 26.8 billion HKD in principal during the same period [1] - As of August 31, the fiscal reserves stood at 586.7 billion HKD [1]

InnovestX认为，关键在于财政问题：由于经济疲软，政府收入的增长速度未能 跟上支出增长的步伐。政府的固定支出规模庞大，且难以削减，这导致了财政 赤字的不断扩大。 （原标题：新政权面临的经济挑战） 据曼谷邮报9月28日报道,在人们对新政府及其经济团队充满期待的情况下，泰 国经济似乎正在展现出复苏的迹象，但同时也面临着新的挑战。最终的结果将 取决于这些新挑战能否得到妥善应对。 InnovestX认为，泰国经济在第四季度将迎来更为严重的放缓趋势，这种放缓可 能会持续到2026年上半年。在未来四个季度内，经济增长率可能低于1%，从 而导致今年全年GDP增长率仅为1.8%，明年则为1.4%。 在这种脆弱的环境中，由阿努廷领导的泰政府面临着两大亟需应对的重大风 险。 风险一：泰铢持续升值对出口行业构成挑战：今年泰铢大幅升值，兑美元汇率 一度达到31.70。本周泰铢汇率略有回落，为32.24，但全年来看仍上涨了 6.4%。 风险二：惠誉评级下调后可能引发的财政危机，更严重的风险在于泰国的财政 状况。周三，惠誉评级机构将泰国的主权信用评级从"稳定"下调至"负面"，就 此指出了泰国面临的财政问题。 历史数据显示，50%的 ...

Market Performance - On September 26, the Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 862.50 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.88% from the previous day [1][2] - The opening price for the day was 857.70 CNY per gram, with a high of 865.28 CNY and a low of 857.38 CNY [1][2] Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on interest rate policies, indicating ongoing internal divisions regarding the need for further rate cuts [3] - Recent economic data showed an increase in U.S. personal consumption expenditures and GDP growth, leading to a reduced necessity for rate cuts by the Fed [4] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September was recorded at 50.2, remaining above the growth threshold, while the Eurozone's PMI showed a decline [4] Fiscal and Monetary Conditions - The U.S. banking system's reserves fell below $3 trillion for the first time since January 1, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for August was reported at $344.79 billion, driven by increased spending and weaker corporate tax revenues [5] - The rising fiscal deficit and national debt, now at $37 trillion, continue to support precious metals [5] Political Developments - Significant political events have heightened global sensitivity, with the U.S. imposing new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and other goods, potentially benefiting gold in the long term [6] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen notable price increases, driven by rising leasing rates in the silver market [7] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are influenced by the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, with recent liquidity releases leading to recoveries in gold, silver, and equities [7] - Long-term support for precious metals remains strong due to global debt and geopolitical factors, although caution is advised for short-term trading volatility [7]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve officials express differing views on interest rate adjustments, indicating ongoing internal divisions within the Fed [1][2] - Recent economic data shows an increase in the likelihood of the Fed maintaining interest rates in October, with the probability rising from 10% to 15% [2] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, driven by net exports, suggesting a stronger economic outlook [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. banking system's liquidity is tightening, as evidenced by a drop in bank reserves below $3 trillion for the first time since January [3] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for August reached $344.79 billion, primarily due to increased spending, which continues to exert pressure on fiscal policy [3] - The recent rise in precious metals, particularly silver, is attributed to increased leasing rates in the silver market, indicating delivery pressure in the spot market [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Significant political events, including proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals and other goods by the U.S. government, may create favorable conditions for gold [4] - The potential resurgence of tariff-related tensions could impact global trade dynamics, further influencing precious metal markets [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The long-term upward trend in precious metals remains intact, supported by global debt and geopolitical factors, although short-term volatility should be approached with caution [5] - Gold is viewed as having stronger support, while silver is recognized for its greater elasticity in price movements [5]

Economic Developments - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024[9] - Turkey's central bank reduced the benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points to 40.5%, exceeding market expectations[13] - Indonesia announced an economic stimulus package worth 16.23 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately $1 billion) to boost consumption and employment[15] Sovereign Credit Ratings - Moody's downgraded Poland's credit outlook from stable to negative while maintaining an A2 rating, citing weakened fiscal and debt indicators[41] - Fitch upgraded Italy's credit rating from BBB to BBB+ with a stable outlook, reflecting improved fiscal policies and revenue growth[42] - Fitch raised Portugal's credit rating from A- to A with a stable outlook, noting a significant reduction in public debt as a percentage of GDP[43] - Fitch downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+ with a stable outlook, highlighting rising public debt and persistent fiscal deficits[45] Geopolitical Risks - Recent drone incidents involving Russia have heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, impacting the sovereign credit ratings of affected countries[7] - The ongoing conflict in Gaza has led to increased military spending in Israel, with an additional budget of $9 billion primarily for defense purposes[20] Trade and Investment - South Korea recorded a current account surplus of $10.78 billion in July, the highest for that month in history, with a cumulative surplus of $60.15 billion for the first seven months of the year[31] - The U.S. and India are set to complete the first phase of their trade agreement negotiations by November 2025[29]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - September 25, 2025 [2] Report Author - Wang Wenhu [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The reduction in the expected number of Fed rate cuts in the future may cause short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks, and continuous gold purchases by central banks, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium and long term [4]. Summary by Section Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - US un - paid public debt decreased by $3.3 billion to $3.75 trillion compared to last week. The fiscal deficit in the 2025 fiscal year was $1.97 trillion, an increase of $140 billion from 2024 [11]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $29.2 billion. The Fed's bank reserve balance decreased, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury cash account increased. The Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to $850 billion by the end of September [12][14]. - The Fed's rediscount and seasonal loans to commercial banks increased, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired and dropped to $0 [16]. - The implied inflation expectations of US medium - and long - term Treasury bonds increased. The 9 - month consumer one - year and five - year inflation expectations were 4.8% and 3.9% respectively, flat and higher than the previous values [17][18]. - The yields of US medium - and long - term Treasury bonds rebounded, and the yields of medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury bonds increased [19][21]. - The spread between US long - and medium - term Treasury bonds widened, and the OFR financial stress index increased, with credit and stock valuations decreasing, safe assets remaining flat, and volatility increasing [23][27]. Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases increased, but the weekly rates of commercial and industrial loans and credit card loans decreased [31][32]. - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales decreased, but consumer spending remained stable [34][36]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index increased, and the 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased. The total sales of new and existing homes in July increased [37][39]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was lower than expected and the previous value, indicating that the employment market was performing well [40][42]. - The spreads between US and German (Japanese) medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields increased [43][45]. - The euro - US dollar exchange rate weakened, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate strengthened [46]. - The volatilities of the US S&P 500 and gold ETF indexes increased [48]. Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures increased, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased [54][56]. - The total gold inventories in COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [58][60]. - The domestic - foreign gold futures spread was at a relatively low level, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities [63][65]. - The London - COMEX and Shanghai Gold Exchange - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold basis were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold basis [67]. - The spreads between near - and far - term contracts of COMEX and Shanghai gold were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold monthly spread [69]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures decreased, and the iShare silver ETF holdings increased [71]. - The total silver inventories in COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange increased [72][73]. - The domestic - foreign silver futures spread was within a reasonable range, and investors were advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [74][76]. - The COMEX and Shanghai silver basis were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [78]. - The spreads between near - and far - term contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver near - far - term contract spread [79]. - The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years, and investors were advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [81]. - The "gold - oil ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) was far above the 90% quantile of the past five years, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities. The "gold - copper ratio" in London and Shanghai (US) was far above (below) the 90% quantile of the past five years, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, high - entry short - selling arbitrage opportunities [83].