上周（9.8~9.12）黄金市场受到美国就业市场持续弱化和通胀平稳的影响，伴随即将开启的降息周 期，黄金仍受到市场普遍关注。 本报告版权归博时基金管理有限公司所有。 市场观点方面，过往一周黄金资产继续延续相对强势，伦敦现货黄金跃上3600美元关口，受到非农数 据下调和通胀数据平稳所提振的降息预期的推动。 本周9月美联储议息会议召开，首次降息即将落地，2Y美债已经定价了年内降息3次的预期，重点关注 季度末议息会议对后续路径的指引。降息周期伊始，虽然短期降息节奏会影响黄金的波动路径，但我 们对后续整体降息空间较为乐观，2026年美联储票委中，总统导向席位或占到绝对多数，美联储独立 性风险不仅影响远期利率路径，也对美元信用收缩的叙事形成支撑。与此对比的是，欧洲央行连续两 次会议维持利率不变，认为当前通胀压力已得到有效控制，此消彼长之下，美元汇率弱势将大概率维 持。 上周国际地缘冲突再度抬头，以色列对包括卡塔尔在内的多个国家和地区发起袭击，波兰正式签署协 议允许北约在其境内部署军队，不能排除后续地缘波动会引发连锁反应，波动上升的环境利好黄金资 产配置。 上周市场动态方面，美国8月通胀数据表现平稳。美国劳工统计局周四公 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle, with further clarity anticipated from Powell's subsequent remarks [1] - Bitcoin (BTC) has not kept pace with the rising U.S. stock market, and without sustained liquidity from continued rate cuts, BTC may experience a phase of correction [1][2] - In the past 24 hours, a total of 158,621 individuals were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $407 million, including $331 million from long positions and approximately $75.5 million from short positions [1][2] Group 2 - Bitcoin's price has struggled to break through the resistance level of 117,000, showing signs of a high-level consolidation and potential downward trend, with key support levels at 113,500-113,300 [3] - Ethereum (ETH) has been in a short-term downtrend, with significant selling pressure observed, and the price currently fluctuating around the 4,500-4,480 range, indicating a potential trend reversal if it breaks below this level [5][9] - Altcoins are experiencing a seasonal surge, but the overall market remains cautious, with a focus on the upcoming interest rate decision and its impact on market volatility [6]

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the rise in gold prices during a rate cut cycle are multifaceted, involving economic, financial, and market psychology dimensions [2] - The decline in real interest rates is a key driver for gold valuation, as lower nominal rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a non-yielding asset [3][4] - The classic cost of carry model indicates that gold prices have an inverse relationship with real interest rates, leading to increased marginal demand for gold when real rates fall below a certain threshold [3] Group 2 - The weakening of the dollar's credit during a rate cut cycle typically results in a depreciating dollar index, which directly boosts gold prices due to the pricing effect [4][5] - Emerging market central banks may diversify their reserves by increasing gold holdings to reduce the proportion of USD in their foreign exchange reserves, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" [6] Group 3 - Market behavior is reinforced by both speculative and hedging demands, with hedge funds often positioning for long positions in gold futures ahead of rate cut expectations [7] - Increased volatility can trigger algorithmic buying strategies, further driving up gold prices [8] - Concerns about economic downturns lead to preemptive hedging in gold allocations, as rate cuts are often seen as a response to potential recessions [9] Group 4 - The long-term structural support for gold is influenced by financial repression effects, where low interest rates may lead to government debt expansion and concerns about currency devaluation [11] - The global scale of negative yield bonds has surpassed $18 trillion, enhancing the relative attractiveness of gold as a zero-yield asset [12] Group 5 - Historical data shows that in six rate cut cycles since 1970, gold prices have increased by 12%-35% in five instances, with the exception being during the 2007 financial crisis when liquidity issues led to asset sell-offs [13]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed slight gains before the market opened, with Dow Jones futures up 0.16%, S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.14% [1][2][3] - The Nasdaq Composite Index achieved a new closing high for five consecutive trading days, while the S&P 500 recorded its best weekly performance since early August [4] Company News - Tesla's stock price rose nearly 8% in pre-market trading after CEO Elon Musk disclosed the purchase of over 2.5 million shares for approximately $1 billion [3][7] - Nvidia's stock fell about 1.6% following an announcement from China's State Administration for Market Regulation that it would conduct further investigations into Nvidia for potential antitrust violations [3][5] - Apple, Amazon, Google, and AMD saw their stock prices increase by over 1%, with Morgan Stanley optimistic about the demand for the new iPhone 17 series potentially exceeding that of the iPhone 16 [4] International Market - European stock markets were generally higher, with Germany's DAX index up 0.64%, the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.04%, and France's CAC40 up 1.31% [4][5] Other Notable Developments - Hesai Technology signed a laser radar order worth over $40 million with a leading US Robotaxi company, with delivery planned by the end of 2026 [8] - Whirlpool raised concerns about competitors like Samsung and LG potentially undervaluing imported goods to evade US tariffs [9] - BitMine increased its Ethereum holdings by 82,233 coins, bringing its total cryptocurrency and cash holdings to $10.8 billion [10] - Zeekr Technology's shareholders approved a merger agreement with Geely Automobile, with 94.2% voting in favor [11]

黄金方面： 隔上周黄金不断刷新历史新高，但最近几个交易日上行放缓，有调整的迹象，但整体上涨力度并未明显走弱，短期大概率还有 新高。 美国的通胀问题再次浮出水面，8月CPI非季调同比由前值的2.7%升至2.9%，核心CPI同比升至3.1%，均在市场预期范围。季调 环比CPI为0.40%，核心CPI为0.30%，与前月持平，整体仍属温和。细分项中，食品价格有所上涨，但能源环比由负转正，整体 上通胀中枢有上移的迹象。 上周临近收盘，国际油价迎来一波反弹，但也仅仅只是反弹，整体的下行技术形态并未得到改变，基本面依旧疲弱。 上周以色列对卡塔尔的袭击造成市场一度紧张情绪上行，进而带动油价反弹，但整体依旧在可控范围内，以色列若持续扩大中 东战事，可能会动摇石油美元环流体系，后期美国对以色列施加压力的可能性很大，战事扩大化的概率不大。 从需求端来看，9月开始，北半球夏季出行高峰结束，汽油消耗随之减少，对原油消费拉动作用减弱。同时，每年11月至次年3 月上旬，以美国为代表的主要消费体进入秋冬检修季，原油需求进入季节性淡季。届时原油消费会雪上加霜，国际原油供过于 求的矛盾会加剧。 同时欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国中的8个主要产油国决定 ...

#报告 TS Lombard：美联储将开启降息周期，调整股市、债市、以及能源、贵金属、工业金属等大宗商品的投资组合观点；市场情绪对中国期待转向新的财政刺激和消费措施出台。None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not solely determine market winners, but will heavily depend on the economic backdrop and the shape of the yield curve [1] - The current market has largely priced in expectations of a "soft landing" or a mild recovery, but historical patterns show that significant rate cuts typically occur during periods of economic weakness or recession [1] - In scenarios of declining interest rates, a steepening yield curve, and improving economic data, sectors such as real estate, consumer discretionary, and information technology are expected to perform well, while utilities are likely to underperform [1] Group 2 - In scenarios of declining interest rates, a steepening yield curve, and deteriorating economic data, traditional defensive sectors like utilities, real estate, healthcare, and consumer staples are expected to perform better, while sectors like information technology and energy may struggle [2] - The traditional view suggests that the federal funds rate must reach a stimulative level for the market to shift from defensive to cyclical sectors [2] - Citigroup predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement five consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each, accompanied by slow but positive economic growth, influencing investment strategies significantly [2]

2025年09月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：下修非农就业 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：宏观情绪驱动，价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：需求边际改善，价格上涨 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：突破上行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 | 13 | | 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 沪金2510 | 昨日收盘价 834.22 | 日涨幅 0.41% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 834.00 | 夜盘涨幅 0.39% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 黄金T+D Comex黄金2510 | 830.34 3680.70 | 0.51% 0.20% | 830.50 - | 0.12% | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3642 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the metal sector, particularly focusing on gold, silver, copper, tungsten, rare earths, and steel industries [1][3][5][6][7][8][10][12][14]. Key Points and Arguments Gold and Silver Market - **Gold Performance**: 中金黄金 (China National Gold) reported Q2 earnings exceeding expectations, with a quarterly profit of 1.6 to 1.7 billion yuan, showing over 60-70% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth. The company's profitability in the gold mining sector has significantly improved, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3][4]. - **Silver Market Dynamics**: Silver prices have surged due to its proposed inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list and tariff concerns, leading to increased demand in the U.S. market. 兴业银锡 (Xingye Silver Tin) is expected to become the largest silver and tin producer in China, with silver production projected to rise from 300 tons this year to over 900 tons by 2028 [1][4]. Copper and Tin Supply Issues - **Copper Supply Constraints**: The copper market is facing challenges due to an accident at Freeport's Indonesian mine and production cuts at Japanese smelters, leading to a projected negative growth in copper supply this year. Recommended companies include 金诚信 (Jinchengxin) and 洛阳钼业 (Luoyang Molybdenum), which are expected to benefit from increased copper production and rising prices of molybdenum and tungsten [5][6]. - **Tin Market**: The tin supply has also been disrupted, with actual increases falling short of expectations. The overall supply growth for tin is minimal, indicating potential upward price elasticity in the future [5]. Tungsten and Rare Earths - **Tungsten Market**: The tungsten market is experiencing tight supply, leading to price increases. 厦门钨业 (Xiamen Tungsten) is highlighted as a leading company with a continuous increase in tungsten concentrate supply [6]. - **Rare Earths Demand**: The demand for rare earths and magnetic materials is recovering, with expectations for continued price increases. Companies like 北方稀土 (Northern Rare Earth) and 包钢氧化钕 (Baogang Neodymium Oxide) are noted for their strong price increase potential [1][6]. Steel Industry Insights - **Steel Market Performance**: The steel sector is benefiting from anti-competitive policies and improved fundamentals, with Q1 and Q2 earnings showing positive trends. Major companies like 华菱钢铁 (Hualing Steel), 首钢股份 (Shougang), and 宝钢股份 (Baosteel) are highlighted for their low price-to-book ratios, indicating high value [2][7][8][10][11]. - **Future Price Trends**: Steel prices are expected to rebound as supply recovers and demand improves, particularly in the construction sector. The anticipated decrease in raw material costs in Q4 could further enhance profitability for steel companies [9][10]. Cobalt Market Developments - **Cobalt Price Surge**: Cobalt prices have risen significantly due to resource concentration and uncertainties in the Democratic Republic of Congo's policies. Companies like 华友钴业 (Huayou Cobalt) and 腾远钴业 (Tengyuan Cobalt) are positioned to benefit from these trends [14][19]. - **Cobalt Supply Constraints**: The production of cobalt salts has reached a five-year low, indicating a tight supply situation. The strategic importance of cobalt is underscored by the U.S. initiating a cobalt reserve plan [15][17]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the metal sector is optimistic, driven by macroeconomic factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, which are expected to bolster demand for precious metals and industrial metals alike [1][3][12]. - The focus on strategic resources and their valuation is likely to have long-term implications for the global supply-demand dynamics in the metal industry [18].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the upcoming interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is relatively straightforward this year, but may face complexities in 2026 due to loose financial conditions, fiscal stimulus, and AI-related risks [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut next week and continue to lower rates until the end of the year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the current U.S. labor market is softening, with indicators such as unemployment rate and job vacancies showing a downward trend [4]. - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Asset Prices - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face more complex decisions, especially if the labor market does not deteriorate sharply [5]. - The market is pricing in a dovish premium for the terminal rate during Trump's term, reflecting a lower probability of rate hikes [5]. - Since early June, the U.S. financial conditions index has eased by 75 basis points, with the stock market being the largest contributor [6]. Group 3: Economic Growth and AI Impact - Potential GDP is expanding at approximately 2.25%, with strong productivity growth offsetting negative impacts from reduced immigration [6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that as the effects of high tariffs diminish and fiscal policy becomes more expansionary, the U.S. economy will gradually accelerate back to potential growth levels by 2026 [6]. - The key question remains how much AI technology can elevate this growth figure [6].