1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - After continuous increases, the probability of market fluctuations is high. The A-share market has shown resilience recently. Although short - term volatility of the market may intensify after continuous index increases, the overall strategy is to go long on dips [10][11] - The Politburo meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, confirming the policy's support for the capital market [10][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The Politburo meeting aimed to enhance the capital market's attractiveness; overseas stock trading income is taxable; A - share margin trading balance is close to 2 trillion yuan; the central bank conducted a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month reverse repurchase operation [10] - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%; June consumption growth was 4.8%; industrial added - value growth was 6.8%; July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%; June social financing scale increased by 8.9% year - on - year; July exports increased by 7.2% and imports by 4.1% [10] - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: 10Y treasury and credit bond rates declined, and credit spreads narrowed. Liquidity became looser at the beginning of the month [10] - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term IM discount; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3573.21, up 3.74%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 11009.77, up 5.20%; and other major indices also had varying degrees of increase [14] - **Futures Market**: All major index futures contracts showed increases, such as IF contracts with increases ranging from 3.47% to 4.17% [15] 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%; July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%; June consumption growth slowed to 4.8%; exports maintained resilience; investment growth declined to 2.8% [36][39][42] - **Corporate Earnings**: In Q1 2025, the revenue growth of non - financial A - share listed companies slightly declined but was still higher than Q3 2024, and the operating net cash flow improved [45] 3.4 Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: 10Y treasury and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rates declined [48] - **Credit Environment**: In June 2025, M1 growth was 4.6%, M2 growth was 8.3%, and social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, with government bonds and corporate short - term loans being the main contributors [59] 3.5 Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, 146.21 billion shares of new equity - biased funds were established, and the net margin purchase was 326.43 billion yuan [65][69] - **Outflow**: This week, major shareholders had a net increase of - 50.67 billion yuan, and there was 1 IPO approval [72] 3.6 Valuation - **P/E Ratio (TTM)**: Shanghai 50 was 11.49, CSI 300 was 13.33, CSI 500 was 30.58, and CSI 1000 was 42.19 [76] - **P/B Ratio (LF)**: Shanghai 50 was 1.27, CSI 300 was 1.41, CSI 500 was 2.06, and CSI 1000 was 2.34 [76]

消息面上，8月7日，中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至7月末，我国黄金储备规模7396万盎司，较6月 末增加6万盎司，为连续第9个月增持黄金。此外，周四晚间公布数据显示8月初美国初次申请失业金人 数超出市场预期，短线避险需求升温推动金价走高。值得关注的是，有消息称，美联储理事沃勒被特朗 普团队视作美联储主席的优先人选之一，而沃勒的降息意愿可能是其在特朗普眼中的加分项。 中信期货认为，随着非农数据的暴雷和美股的反转，美国经济短期韧性的交易短期或告一段落，市场重 回美国基本面走弱+降息周期重启的逻辑定价，黄金市场情绪将转向积极。此外，该行提示，美联储换 届节奏的加快，可能带来明年利率路径预期的改变和美联储独立性的忧虑，有望带来价格弹性的放大。 黄金中长期牛市趋势不变，关税路径下的美国基本面延续放缓及降息周期的重启带来中期驱动，美元信 用收缩构筑长期牛市基石。 黄金股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，集海资源(02489)涨4.96%，报1.48港元；潼关黄金(00340)涨4.1%，报 2.03港元；山东黄金（600547）(01787)涨2.9%，报29.78港元；招金矿业(01818)涨2.83%，报22.56港 元；紫 ...

上周五，美国公布的7月非农就业数据意外"爆冷"，远不及市场预期。这盆泼向美国经济的"冷水"，却给资本市场点燃了一把火，金价应声拉升，COMEX黄 金期货当天涨幅超2%。 今年以来，黄金走强的驱动因素主要是美国经济数据趋弱催化美国滞胀/衰退预期，无论美国降息预期再扩张与美国再通胀两种路径哪种发生，均利多金 价。 事实上，尽管今年全球风险偏好显著回升，几个主要股市的表现都比较亮眼，黄金的涨幅依旧领跑。近期，随着美联储9月降息预期升温，资金再度聚焦黄 金。其中，以金ETF（159834；联接A/C：018391/018392）为代表的黄金ETF产品，为普通投资者提供了便捷高效的配置通道。 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2025.01.01-2025.08.04 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2025.01.01-2025.08.04 当前普遍预计美联储将加快降息节奏，根据wind数据，截至8月5日，CME掉期利率显示9月降息概率超九成，或对黄金价格形成支撑。 当下的投资价值与逻辑支撑 我们知道，黄金集避险硬通货、通胀对冲货币、工业与饰品商品三重属性于一身，且与股债低相关，是天然的跨维度风险缓冲器。眼下，地缘政治升温 ...

Group 1 - Investors are hopeful for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which historically has been a catalyst for stock market gains [1][2] - LPL Financial's research indicates that since 1974, the average return of the S&P 500 during nine rate-cutting cycles was 30.3%, with a median return of 13.3% [1] - Notably, six out of the nine rate-cutting periods resulted in positive returns, suggesting potential upward momentum for the U.S. stock market in the latter half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - However, rate cuts do not always guarantee positive market performance, as seen in the 2007-2009 and 2001-2004 cycles where the S&P 500 fell by 23.5% and 9.6%, respectively [2] - Current investor sentiment has driven the market to new highs, with a 12% increase since the Fed's first rate cut last September [2] - Concerns about trade policy and its delayed effects on the economy may pose risks, with potential pressure on labor market demand [2] Group 3 - In the short term, a conservative investment strategy is recommended, focusing on growth stocks, large-cap stocks, and sectors like financials and communication services [4] - Investors should prepare for potential volatility given the current optimistic sentiment reflected in the stock market [4]

Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to announce an interest rate cut this Thursday, becoming one of the first major central banks to adopt a loose monetary policy in the current cycle [1] - Market expectations indicate a 96% probability that the Bank of England will lower the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4% during the August meeting, marking its first policy adjustment since May [1] - Economic data from the UK shows a contraction in May, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.7%, providing a basis for the anticipated interest rate cut [1] Group 2 - Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, the UK stock market has performed well, with the FTSE 100 index rising 12% this year and reaching new highs [2] - The rise in the UK stock market is driven by government plans to increase defense spending and a trade agreement between UK Prime Minister Starmer and US President Trump, which sets the baseline tariff on US goods to the UK at 10% [2] - The US stock market has also shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 index increasing by 7% this year, reflecting growing investor optimism regarding the anticipated interest rate cuts [2]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced a significant downturn on August 1, with European stocks dropping over 2% and the U.S. stock market also facing substantial losses, including the Dow Jones falling over 600 points, the Nasdaq declining over 2%, and the S&P 500 dropping more than 1.6% [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 100,000. Additionally, previous months' data were revised downwards, indicating a troubling trend in employment growth [7]. - The average non-farm employment growth over the past three months was only 35,000, marking the worst performance since the pandemic began [7]. Federal Reserve Response - The weak employment data and new tariff policies have increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in September rose from approximately 40% to nearly 90% following the release of the employment data [10]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time was met with dissent from two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, a situation not seen since 1993 [10]. Tariff Impact - The updated tariff policies announced by President Trump, which include rates ranging from 10% to 41% and an additional 40% on goods circumventing tariffs, have negatively impacted market sentiment [11]. - The most shocking development was the increase in tariffs on imports from Canada, the U.S.'s largest trading partner, from 25% to 35% [12]. Market Sentiment - The combination of weak employment data and new tariffs has led to a sell-off in the markets, with analysts expressing concerns about the potential for negative employment growth in the coming months, raising fears of an economic recession [9][12].

新华社莫斯科7月28日电 综述｜经济降温通胀回落 俄央行再降息 新华社记者包诺敏 继6月初将基准利率下调1个百分点后，俄罗斯中央银行25日决定将基准利率进一步下调2个百分点 至18%。分析人士认为，俄上半年经济增长放缓、通胀压力缓和是促使俄央行进一步降息的关键因素。 俄央行发表声明说，当前通胀下行速度快于预期，国内需求增长放缓，经济活动保持向均衡增长路 径回归趋势，决定维持适度从紧货币政策，以促使通胀率在2026年回归目标水平。 多名经济学家指出，俄央行最新降息举措可能预示新一轮降息周期的开始。尽管联邦预算调整、卢 布汇率波动等潜在变量可能延缓降息节奏，但主流分析预测，俄央行或将于9月继续降息，并于年底前 将基准利率下调至15%。 俄罗斯经济发展部本月初公布的数据显示，今年1至5月俄罗斯国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长 1.5%，低于去年同期5%的增速。通货膨胀率持续下降，6月份降至9.4%。 今年上半年，受高利率影响，俄罗斯民众贷款负担加重，汽车和房地产等大宗消费市场表现低迷。 俄罗斯工业和贸易部援引分析机构数据披露，2025年上半年俄罗斯新乘用车销量同比下降约26%，至 52.67万辆，其中6月份下降27% ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund has shown a mixed performance with a recent decline, but overall, it has experienced significant growth in assets and positive long-term returns, driven by macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of July 28, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) decreased by 0.32%, with a latest price of 7.37 yuan. Over the past month, it has accumulated a rise of 1.16% [2]. - The gold ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 8214.56 million yuan over the last 19 trading days, with an average daily net inflow of 432.35 million yuan [3]. - The fund's net asset value has increased by 80.09% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two in comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The total scale of 53 gold-themed funds reached 2469 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1285 billion yuan or 108.53% since the end of last year [2]. - Recent rumors about reduced U.S. tariffs have led to a decrease in safe-haven demand, causing precious metals to weaken. However, a potential new upward trend in gold prices is anticipated due to the ongoing interest rate cuts [2]. - The macroeconomic backdrop remains unstable, with a long-term logic suggesting a weakening of the U.S. dollar's global position, which could provide sustained support for gold prices [2]. Group 3: Fund Metrics - The gold ETF fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10% [3]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.36, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3]. - The tracking error for the gold ETF fund over the past two months is 0.002%, demonstrating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [4].

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's central bank has resumed its interest rate cut cycle by lowering the benchmark rate by 300 basis points from 46% to 43%, indicating a cautious approach to future rate adjustments amid stabilizing inflation trends [1][7]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank's decision to cut rates aligns with market expectations, slightly exceeding the median forecast [1]. - Turkey's annual inflation rate decreased to 35.05% in June, supported by falling prices in key categories such as food and beverages [1]. - The central bank plans to make future rate cuts in a prudent manner, assessing economic conditions in subsequent meetings [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the interest rate cut, the Istanbul Stock Exchange saw a rise, with the Istanbul 100 Index increasing by over 1% [2]. - The Istanbul 100 Index reached 10,724.63, reflecting a daily increase of 132.65 points or 1.25% [3]. Group 3: Currency Movements - The Turkish lira has depreciated against the US dollar, indicating potential market volatility following the central bank's policy changes [6].

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Bank has reported positive performance in its earnings announcement, aligning with the trend observed in other East China banks, indicating a general improvement in revenue growth amidst a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - Ningbo Bank achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.91% in the first half of 2025, an increase from 5.63% in the first quarter [1] - Hangzhou Bank reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 3.89% in the first half of 2025, up from 2.22% in the first quarter [1] - Changshu Bank experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.10% in the first half of 2025, slightly higher than the 10.04% growth in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Trend Analysis - All three banks, including Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Changshu Bank, demonstrated a trend of improving revenue growth quarter by quarter during the current interest rate reduction cycle [1]