Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report on the industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts for June 2025 include 2.1 trillion yuan in new loans, 3.8 trillion yuan in social financing, M2 reaching 329.2 trillion yuan with a YoY growth of 7.9%, M1 (new caliber) YoY growth of 2.5%, and a social financing growth rate of 8.8% [2] - New loans in June may be close to the same period last year. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. The growth of individual short - term loans is expected to be 150 billion yuan, and individual medium - and long - term loans 350 billion yuan. Corporate short - term loans are expected to increase by 500 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans by 950 billion yuan, and bill financing by 100 billion yuan [3] - The growth rate of the new - caliber M1 is expected to rebound in June, while the M2 growth rate remains stable. The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 2.5%, and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month [3] - Social financing in June may increase year - on - year. The social financing increment in June is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from government bonds and net corporate bond financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, new loans (social financing caliber) are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing to expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of about 8.3% [3] - Interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the third quarter. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Forecast of New Loans - Based on past credit release rules and industry observations, it is predicted that new loans in June 2025 will be 2.1 trillion yuan. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. Due to weak credit demand, new loans in July may be low [2][3] Forecast of M1 and M2 Growth Rates - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber. It is expected that the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June will be 2.5% and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month, indicating a slow improvement in economic activity [3] Forecast of Social Financing - The social financing increment in June 2025 is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase from 3.3 trillion yuan in June 2024. The increase mainly comes from government bonds and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, social financing is expected to increase year - on - year, and the growth rate may rise first and then fall [3] Bond Market Outlook - In the third quarter, interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%, as well as urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. The perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and opportunities in insurance sub - debt are worth attention. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 社融总量稳定增长，政府债延续支撑 ——2025 年 5 月金融数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 5 月存量社融同比 8.7%，增速环比基本持平，从增量结构上来看，政府债和企业直接 融资为主要贡献项；信贷增量偏弱，但结构上仍有亮点，企业短贷同比正增、票据冲量规模下 降。2025 年 5 月 M1、M2 同比增速分别为 2.3%、7.9%，增速环比提升 0.8 个百分点、微降 0.1 个百分点。存款结构方面，政府债净融资带来财政存款沉淀，企业存款在去年手工补息带 来的低基数下同比少减。信贷增量表现偏弱，但今年政府债为社融增速提供趋势性支撑，随着 市场对贸易摩擦的反应逐步钝化，资金面预计仍是政策真空期影响债市的重要因素。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 社融总量稳定增长，政府 ...

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, marking a record low growth rate of 7.1%[4][7] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[8][9] - In contrast, short-term corporate loans increased by 230 billion year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year[9] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 22,894 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, continuing a trend of six consecutive months of year-on-year growth[4][11] - Government bond financing significantly contributed to social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion in May[11][12] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 1,211 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[12] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating strong financial support for the real economy[4][14] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year to stimulate domestic demand[15] - Overall, the financial support for the real economy is anticipated to strengthen, with expectations for new loans and social financing to show significant year-on-year growth in the latter half of 2025[15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [23]. Core Insights - In May, the social financing (社融) stock growth rate was 8.7%, remaining stable compared to April, with new social financing of 2.29 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 0.2 trillion yuan year-on-year. This growth is primarily driven by policy factors, particularly the accelerated issuance of government bonds [3][10]. - The net financing scale of government bonds in May was 1.46 trillion yuan, also reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. The total social financing stock reached 426 trillion yuan by the end of May [3][10]. - Demand from enterprises remains weak, with new loans to enterprises in May amounting to 530 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous year. However, short-term loans and bond financing showed some improvement due to low base effects and policy influences [3][15]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - The social financing stock growth rate in May was 8.7%, consistent with April's rate, with a total stock of 426 trillion yuan [3][10]. - New RMB loans in May totaled 620 billion yuan, significantly lower than the 960 billion yuan in May 2024, with the total loan balance reaching 266.3 trillion yuan, growing at 7.1% year-on-year [12][14]. Investment Strategy - Fiscal deposits remain high, indicating potential for further fiscal spending, which is expected to support economic growth. The focus of monetary policy is on the implementation of existing policies, with a need to monitor the recovery of demand [4][20]. - The banking sector's performance is anticipated to gradually recover due to the positive contribution of deposit repricing to net interest margins and a decrease in bond market volatility [4][20]. M1 and M2 Growth - M2 growth in May was 7.9%, with a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous month. M1 growth was 2.3%, showing an increase of 0.8% from the previous month, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year [19][22].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The credit demand is weak, but the growth rate of social financing is stable. The new loans in May 2025 decreased year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand and the impact of implicit debt replacement. The growth rate of M2 was stable month-on-month, and the growth rate of M1 rebounded. The social financing in May increased year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing was stable. It is expected that the new loans in 2025 will increase slightly year-on-year, the net financing of government bonds will expand significantly year-on-year, the social financing will increase significantly year-on-year, and the growth rate of social financing may rise first and then fall, with an estimated year-end growth rate of about 8.3%. Interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations in stages, and 5Y credit bonds with a yield of more than 2% are favored [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Credit Demand Analysis - In May 2025, the new loans decreased year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand and the impact of implicit debt replacement. The new individual loans were +540 million, including -208 million in short-term individual loans and +746 million in medium - and long - term individual loans, with a slight year-on-year increase. The new short - term corporate loans were +1.1 billion, the new medium - and long - term corporate loans were +3.3 billion, and the bill financing was +746 million. Due to low capacity utilization in manufacturing, weak real estate investment, and limited infrastructure investment space, credit demand may be weak in the long term [2]. M1 and M2 Analysis - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes personal current deposits and customer reserves of non - bank payment institutions on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of May 2025, the balance of the new - caliber M1 reached 108.9 trillion yuan. In May, the growth rate of the new - caliber M1 was 2.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points, and the growth rate of M2 was 7.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The growth rates of both the new and old M1 calibers have significantly rebounded since Q4 2024, reflecting an improvement in economic activity [2]. Social Financing Analysis - In May 2025, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, a significant year - on - year increase of 0.22 trillion yuan, mainly from the net financing of government bonds and corporate bonds. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy was 59.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.37 billion yuan; the undiscounted bank acceptance bills were - 11.62 billion yuan; the net financing of corporate bonds was +14.96 billion yuan; the net financing of government bonds was 1.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.67 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing at the end of May was 8.7%, the same as at the end of the previous month and 0.7 percentage points higher than at the beginning of the year [2]. Bond Investment Suggestion - Interest rate bonds may experience narrow fluctuations in stages, and 5Y credit bonds with a yield of more than 2% are favored. The reduction of long - term time deposit interest rates of major banks in May 2025 is beneficial to credit bonds. The reduction of deposit interest rates is expected to promote the growth of wealth management scale, and the wealth management scale may increase significantly in July, further compressing credit spreads. In 2025, bond market investment needs to be cautious, and attention should be paid to stock and convertible bond investment opportunities and Hong Kong - listed bank stocks [2].

Domestic News - Xi Jinping will attend the second China-Central Asia Summit [2] - Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to discuss new models for real estate development and measures to optimize drug and consumable procurement [2] - The People's Bank of China reported that M2 grew by 7.9% year-on-year as of the end of May, while M1 increased by 2.3% [2] - Preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China indicate that the social financing scale reached 426.16 trillion yuan by the end of May 2025, marking an 8.7% year-on-year growth [2] - The central bank will conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, with a term of 6 months (182 days) [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will implement a joint commitment for consumer safety and recall on e-commerce platforms [2] - The draft implementation plan for Guangzhou's special actions to boost consumption is open for public consultation [2] - Tencent has not discussed any transactions with the founder's family and is not considering acquiring Nexon [2] - Shenzhen will accelerate the implementation of 24 special measures to relax market access [2] International News - Israel's "Lion's Awakening" operation targets Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites, with Iran vowing retaliation [3] - Reports indicate that Israel's actions against Iran may last at least several days or up to two weeks [3] - Trump praised Israel's strikes on Iran as "outstanding," suggesting more actions are to come [3] - The Israeli military has attacked over 200 targets, destroying a nuclear facility near Isfahan, with operations described as "just beginning" [3] - The Israeli government claims that the attacks have resulted in over 110 deaths and hundreds of injuries in Iran [3] - Iran has launched multiple missile attacks on Israel, with air raid sirens sounding across the country [3] - The Israeli military reported that fewer than 100 missiles were fired by Iran, with most intercepted or missing their targets [3] - Iran's missile attacks have resulted in injuries to 21 individuals in Israel, with two in serious condition [3] - Iran's response to Israel's attacks is named "Real Promise-3," indicating that actions will continue as necessary [3] Market Impact - Israel's airstrikes on Iran caused oil prices to surge, with Brent crude experiencing its largest single-day increase since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, rising by 13% [4] - The Indian government is considering grounding its Boeing 787 fleet following a bomb threat to an Air India flight [4] - Indian gold futures have surpassed 100,000 rupees, reaching a historical high [4] - Market rumors suggest that the U.S. and Vietnam are nearing a framework trade agreement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for May indicates a stable growth in total financing, supporting the real economy, with expectations for continued steady growth in financial totals in the near future [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1]. - The broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year [1]. - The narrow money (M1) balance reached 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [1]. - The balance of RMB loans stood at 266.32 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [1]. Group 2: Drivers of Financing Growth - In the first five months of the year, the cumulative increase in social financing was 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - Government bonds were identified as the primary driver of the rapid growth in social financing, with a significant increase in net financing in the first quarter [2]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds aimed at replacing hidden local government debts has been notably high, contributing to the increase in government bond financing [2][3]. Group 3: Loan Demand and Economic Activity - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, with 620 billion yuan added in May alone [4]. - The recent interest rate cuts have positively influenced loan demand, with a notable increase in corporate borrowing [4]. - The growth in personal loans in May, amounting to 540 billion yuan, indicates a recovery in economic activity, supported by a rebound in the real estate market and consumer spending [4][5]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - The growth rate of "active money" (M1) accelerated significantly, reflecting improved market confidence and a recovery in investment and consumption activities [7]. - M2 growth remained stable at 7.9%, with expectations for continued steady growth in financial totals [8]. - The ongoing proactive fiscal policies are expected to further support the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that effective financing demand is currently insufficient, with social financing maintaining a year-on-year increase primarily due to government bond financing, while credit remains weak due to various factors affecting corporate financing willingness [1][2][4] - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase narrowing to 227.1 billion yuan, supported mainly by direct financing, particularly government bond issuance [2][4] - The M1 growth rate rebounded in May, influenced by a low base effect from the previous year and improved cash flow for enterprises due to government bond issuance [1][8] Group 2 - In May, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease narrowing to 330 billion yuan, indicating a shift in the residential loan sector from a year-on-year increase to a decrease [4][6] - Corporate loans increased by 5.3 trillion yuan, driven by both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans, although bill financing remained weak with a year-on-year decrease [6][8] - The M2 year-on-year growth rate slightly declined to 7.9% in May, while the difference between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed, indicating a stabilization in social financing stock growth at 8.7% [8]

金十数据整理：6月13日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 国内新闻： 5. 央行将于6月16日开展4000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 6. 中国驻以色列使馆提醒在以中国公民加强安全防范。 1. 习近平将出席第二届中国—中亚峰会。 2. 李强主持召开国务院常务会议，听取构建房地产发展新模式和推进好房子建设有关情况汇报；研究优 化药品和耗材集采有关举措。 3. 央行：5月末M2同比增长7.9%，M1同比增长2.3%。 4. 中国人民银行：初步统计，2025年5月末社会融资规模存量为426.16万亿元，同比增长8.7%。 7. 市场监管总局：市场监管部门将组织实施电商平台消费品安全与召回共治承诺。 8. 《广州市提振消费专项行动实施方案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。 9. 腾讯没有与创始人的家族联系讨论交易，也没有考虑收购Nexon。 10. 深圳放宽市场准入24条特别措施将加快实施。 布伦特原油 2. 伊朗退出与美国的核谈判。 3. 以色列对伊朗的空袭导致油价日内一度飙升13%，布伦特原油实现了自2022年俄乌冲突以来最大日内 涨幅。 4. 泰国普吉机场：印度航空AI379航班收到炸弹威胁，请求紧急降落 ...

信贷同比延续少增。 5月份新增人民币贷款6200亿元，同比少增额收窄至3300亿元。其中，居民部门贷款新增540亿元，同比由多减转为少增217亿元，短期贷款减 少208亿元、中长期贷款增加746亿元，从同比变化来看，居民短贷同比多减额略降至451亿元，中长贷同多增额收窄至232亿元。企业部门贷款增加5300亿元，主要 由中长贷和短贷贡献，票据融资较弱，同比少增额降至2100亿元，从分项来看，企业短贷增加1100亿元，同比由多减转为多增2300亿元，企业中长贷增加3300亿 元，同比少增额继续扩大至1700亿元，票据融资规模增加746亿元，同比少增2826亿元 。 报 告 正 文 有效融资需求暂显不足。 5月社融同比保持多增，除了政府债融资保持较高规模以外，低利率带动企业债券融资好转。不过，5月信贷依然偏弱，一方面化债对于企 业贷款的替代效应仍然存在，关税政策也继续影响着企业的融资意愿，反映在企业短期贷款和票据融资整体走弱；另一方面，实体部门融资需求仍然偏弱，降息后 居民的加杠杆意愿尚未有明显增强，财政政策有待加力提效 。 财政资金拨付提振M1。 5月M1增速反弹，一是主要受到去年同期整顿存款"手工补息"带来的 ...