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连续4个月净投放6000亿,央行双工具护航年末经济收官
第一财经· 2025-11-24 13:30
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 1 trillion yuan on November 25, 2025, indicating a net liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan for November, as 900 billion yuan of MLF is maturing [3][4]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection - In November, the total net liquidity injection reached 600 billion yuan, maintaining a high level for four consecutive months [3][4]. - The liquidity injection is primarily aimed at addressing three demands: the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bonds, the completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, and the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC's approach to liquidity provision has become more fixed, with regular operations scheduled for different periods of the month [4]. - The report indicates that since the reserve requirement ratio cut in May, the market has seen sustained net liquidity injections, with a total of 1.5 trillion yuan injected through MLF and reverse repos in the third quarter [5]. - Future monetary policy is expected to focus on optimizing the structure rather than just increasing the scale, with an emphasis on directing financial resources towards key areas such as technological innovation and green development [5]. Group 3: Economic Stability Measures - Analysts predict that the PBOC will continue to use reverse repos and MLF to inject liquidity, but the scale may decrease from the current high level of 600 billion yuan per month [5]. - There is an expectation of new growth-stabilizing policies being introduced before the end of the year, focusing on fiscal support and monetary easing to stabilize the economy and achieve growth targets [5].
数量型政策工具持续加力!人民银行连续第九个月加量续作MLF
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-11-24 13:08
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of 1 trillion yuan on November 25, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1][3]. Summary by Sections MLF Operations - On November 24, the PBOC announced a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation, with a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, to be conducted on November 25, 2025 [1]. - In November, 900 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature, resulting in a net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan for the month [1]. Liquidity Measures - The PBOC also conducted 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan reverse repos on November 5 and November 17, respectively, leading to a net liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan for November [3]. - The total net liquidity injection for November, combining MLF and reverse repos, remains at a high level, consistent with October's figures [3]. Economic Context - The increase in MLF aligns with market expectations, as the central government plans to issue additional local government bonds to address existing debt and stimulate effective investment [3]. - The PBOC's actions are seen as necessary to support liquidity in response to potential tightening in the banking system [4]. Future Monetary Policy - The PBOC aims to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, with expectations of continued liquidity injections through MLF and reverse repos, although the scale may decrease from the current high levels [5]. - Upcoming policies may include a new round of fiscal and monetary measures to stabilize economic growth and support the real estate market [5].
1个月期国库现金定存利率下降至1.73%,资金面宽松信号持续释放
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-11-24 13:08
Core Viewpoint - The recent auction of the 2025 Central Treasury Cash Management time deposits indicates a slight decrease in the bidding interest rate, reflecting a reasonable liquidity level in the banking system [1][6]. Group 1: Auction Details - The auction held on November 24 resulted in a total bid amount of 120 billion yuan with a bidding interest rate of 1.73%, down from 1.76% in the previous auction, marking a decrease of 3 basis points [1][4]. - The term for this deposit is set at one month, with the interest rate showing a downward trend over the last six auctions [6]. Group 2: Market Implications - The decline in the treasury cash deposit interest rate suggests a reduced demand for these funds by commercial banks, indicating that the banking system is not facing significant liquidity shortages [6][8]. - In contrast, the interbank market rates, such as the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR), have shown a slight increase, indicating differing pricing logic between treasury deposits and interbank borrowing [7]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has been actively injecting liquidity into the market, conducting a net injection of 55.7 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 24, following several days of similar operations [7]. - The central bank plans to conduct a 10 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on November 25, aiming to maintain a multi-layered liquidity adjustment system [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The downward trend in the one-month treasury cash deposit interest rate is expected to help lower short-term funding costs for commercial banks, although the scale of this operation is limited and primarily serves as a signal [8]. - The overall monetary policy stance of the People's Bank of China is expected to remain stable, with a clear intention to counter seasonal liquidity pressures as the year-end approaches [8].
MLF将连续第9个月加量续作 保持银行体系流动性充裕
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 12:51
新华财经北京11月24日电(记者翟卓)中国人民银行24日公告,为保持银行体系流动性充裕,将于25日 以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作,期限为1年 期。 鉴于25日将有9000亿元MLF到期,本月加量续作规模为1000亿元,也是连续第九个月保持加量续作, 符合市场预期。再综合考虑此前中国人民银行已通过买断式逆回购净投放5000亿元,本月内中期流动性 净投放总量达6000亿元。 在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来,10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕后,会带动配套中长 期贷款较快增长,加之11月银行同业存单到期规模及政府债券净融资规模均会明显增加,也会在一定程 度上收紧银行体系的流动性。 还有受访人士表示,中国人民银行持续较大规模向银行体系注入中期流动性,可释放数量型政策工具持 续加力的信号,显示货币政策延续支持性立场,有助于稳增长、稳预期。后续中国人民银行或继续综合 运用MLF及买断式逆回购两项政策工具,持续向市场注入中期流动性。 (文章来源:新华财经) "由此,着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势,中国人民银行通过MLF和买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中 期流动性 ...
连续4个月净投放6000亿 央行双工具护航年末经济收官
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 12:33
《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》显示,第三季度,买断式逆回购和MLF操作合计净投放1.5 万亿元,为保持市场流动性充裕提供有力支持。 11月24日,央行宣布,将于11月25日开展10000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作。由于11月有9000亿元 MLF到期,这意味着11月央行MLF净投放规模为1000亿元。 考虑到11月央行还开展了5000亿元买断式逆回购净投放,这意味着11月中期流动性净投放总额达到6000 亿元,与上月相同,连续4个月处于6000亿元的年内较高水平。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析,11月持续加大流动性投放主要应对三大需求:一是10月安排5000亿 元地方政府债务结存限额,用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资,这意味着年底前会加发5000亿元地方 债,11月政府债券净融资规模会有明显上升;二是10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕,在带动 当月委托贷款走高后,接下来还会带动配套中长期贷款较快投放;三是11月银行同业存单到期量也有明 显增加。以上都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性,需要央行给予流动性支持。 作为全年工作收官的关键时段,11月、12月面临政府债券发行、信贷投放收尾等多 ...
10000亿元!央行预告
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, indicating a net injection of 100 billion yuan in November, continuing a trend of increased liquidity support for the ninth consecutive month [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will implement a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multi-price bidding method for the 1 trillion yuan MLF operation, with a one-year term [1]. - In November, there will be 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan [1]. - The central bank's net liquidity injection for November, including a 500 billion yuan reverse repo, totals 600 billion yuan, maintaining a high level of mid-term liquidity for four consecutive months [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Liquidity - Three main factors contribute to the high level of mid-term liquidity: the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bonds, the completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, and an increase in the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [3]. - The PBOC aims to support liquidity in the banking system to counteract potential tightening, ensuring a stable and ample funding environment [4]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Experts anticipate that the PBOC will continue to utilize both reverse repos and MLF as tools to inject mid-term liquidity into the market [5]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance is expected to help stabilize growth and expectations [4]. - The PBOC is likely to maintain a loose quantity operation model through the end of the year, fostering a relatively stable and accommodative funding environment [6].
美国政坛风云再起,特朗普多次炮轰鲍威尔,背后牵动美国经济命脉
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 11:47
哈喽,大家好,小玖今天要跟大家扒一扒美国政坛最近的一出好戏。"我很想解雇鲍威尔,他极其无 能。"特朗普在近日的发言中毫不掩饰其不满,甚至提出应就美联储的建设成本问题起诉鲍威尔。 这场看似突然的爆发,实则是一场酝酿已久的战争,一边是渴望连任的总统,另一边是坚守独立性的美 联储。 指桑骂槐:特朗普的明枪与暗箭 特朗普最近又玩起了政治策略,公开表示如果财政部长贝森特不能推动美元利率下降,将解雇这位财政 部长。 表面上在批评贝森特,实际上真正的目标是美联储主席鲍威尔。这种指桑骂槐的手法,暴露了特朗普对 当前货币政策的不满。 特朗普对贝森特调侃道:"贝森特唯一搞砸的就是美联储,利率太高了,如果你不尽快搞定,我就炒了 你。" 然而,众所周知,利率决策权在美联储手中,而非财政部长。 早在今年7月,特朗普就曾在社交媒体上发文称:"'太迟先生'应该立即辞职!!!" 这一称呼反映了他 认为鲍威尔在降息问题上总是行动过晚。 特朗普在2017年提名鲍威尔为美联储主席,但如今两人却在货币政策上产生了严重分歧。 特朗普对鲍威尔的不满主要集中在四个方面:一是认为鲍威尔降息太慢;二是鲍威尔坚守美联储"独立 运作"原则,拒绝顺应白宫政策导向。 ...
中国人民银行将开展10000亿元MLF操作
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 11:47
中国人民银行11月24日发布公告称,为保持银行体系流动性充裕,11月25日中国人民银行将以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作,期限为1年期。 由于当月有9000亿元MLF到期,这意味着MLF净投放量达1000亿元,为连续第9个月加量续作。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为,中国人民银行通过MLF等政策工具持续注入中期流动性,显示货 币政策延续支持性立场,有助于资金面保持充裕、助力政府债券发行、稳定市场预期。(记者任军、吴 雨) ...
流动性周报:横盘之后,是涨是跌?-20251124
China Post Securities· 2025-11-24 11:39
横盘之后,是涨是跌? ——流动性周报 20251123 证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-11-24 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《从资管信托新规,看银行理财变局— — 机 构 行 为 专 题 二 20251120 》 - 2025.11.21 固收周报 ⚫ 上涨面依然大于下跌面 观点回顾:四季度债市或在震荡中前行。对短端而言,高配置价 值和交易价值是实实在在的,存单年末还将存在一定的供给压力,但 出现负反馈的概率不高,在资金稳定宽松背景下,同业存单利率处于 高配置价值区间,年末有超预期下行的可能。对于长端而言,前期期 限利差的扩张,给予了长端一定的修复空间。依然坚持四季度债市利 多因素多发,但赎回压力持续存在,需要以区间震荡思路做交易的判 断。随着宽松预期的升温,不妨对后期后续的债市行情更乐观点。 债市进入盘整状态,甚至不对风险偏好做出反应。近几周,债市 波动收窄的程度依然超出预期,即收益率波动幅度明显收窄,仅仅因 房地产政策预期等因素而出现小幅波动,甚至在全球风险偏好明显收 ...
1万亿元,明日落地!
近6个月,中期流动性持续处于净投放状态,11月净投放规模继续处于高位。王青进一步分析,11 月,政府债券净融资规模预计将明显上升;5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕,会带动配套中长期 贷款较快投放;银行同业存单到期量明显增加。"这些因素都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性,因 此需要央行给予流动性支持。" 今年以来,央行加大流动性投放力度,维护跨季资金面平稳。目前,已基本形成每月5日前后开展3 个月买断式逆回购、15日前后开展6个月买断式逆回购、25日开展1年期MLF的中长期资金投放模式。 第三季度,买断式逆回购和MLF操作合计净投放1.5万亿元,既为保持市场流动性充裕奠定基础,也为 金融机构流动性管理提供便利。 王青表示,央行通过MLF和买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性,有助于保持资金面处于较 为稳定的充裕状态。"这也能助力政府债券发行,引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度。" SHMET 网讯: 央行11月24日发布的11月中期借贷便利(MLF)招标公告显示,11月25日将以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元MLF操作,期限为1年期,以保持银行体系流动性充裕。 业内专家表示,这是央 ...