Core Viewpoint - Brazilian President Lula stated that trade wars have no winners and lead to economic downturns [1] Group 1 - Trade wars negatively impact economies, resulting in a slowdown [1] - The statement emphasizes the importance of cooperation over conflict in international trade [1]

文/珠玑说 无论是特朗普在国内推动药价改革却绑定国际汽车贸易的施压，还是盟友日本突然对美国展现出的贸易强硬姿态，都说明，这场博弈还未结束，此次会谈 中，美方最想要的中方没有给，日本会做出怎样的强硬举动呢？ (本文所有内容皆有官方可靠信源，具体资料赘述文章结尾) 中美贸易战关税刚迎来缓和，日内瓦谈判桌上达成了部分关税回调共识，然而，新的风向和对抗已悄然展开。 日内瓦的"休战符" 中美贸易战，刚透出一丝暖意就又寒风乍起？日内瓦谈判桌上的"实质性进展"，听着像那么回事，双方说好了，从5月14号起，关税大棒暂时收一收，退回 到4月2号以前的水平。 可就在大家以为能喘口气的时候，新的火药味儿已经悄然弥漫开来，这次握手，更像是一场复杂棋局中的暂停，而非终局的哨声。 表面上看，这次谈判成果显著，美国取消了清单里高达91%的加征关税，中国也投桃报李，撤了对等比例的反制关税。 具体数字更扎眼：美国对中国商品的关税税率，从先前吓人的145%，"大刀阔斧"砍到了30%，这里头还包含了那笔备受争议的20%"芬太尼税"，中国对美国 货的关税也降到了10%，双方似乎都拿出了不小的诚意。 但猫腻往往藏在细节里，美国那边有一项关键的24%对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of a temporary reduction in tariffs from 145% to 30% on Chinese goods has sparked optimism among U.S. companies reliant on imports from China, although challenges remain due to ongoing higher costs and uncertainties in trade policy [2][5][8]. Group 1: Impact on Companies - SharkNinja's CEO Mark Barrocas quickly instructed factories in China to release goods for shipment to the U.S. following the tariff announcement, indicating readiness with hundreds of containers prepared for departure [2][4]. - Many companies, including Hightail Hair, expressed relief and are moving swiftly to ship existing inventory, with Hightail having nearly 4,000 units ready for export [4]. - Despite the tariff reduction, companies are still facing challenges from higher costs and potential price increases during back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons [5][8]. Group 2: Supply Chain Adjustments - Companies have been adjusting their supply chains in response to the trade war, with some, like Musgrave Pencil, shifting production to countries like Vietnam to avoid high tariffs [12][15]. - SharkNinja has significantly reduced its reliance on Chinese manufacturing, with plans for nearly 90% of its U.S. products to be produced outside of China by July [16]. - The uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies continues to complicate strategic planning for many businesses, as highlighted by concerns over the long-term implications of the temporary agreement [6][17].

Group 1 - Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato plans to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during the G7 meeting in Canada to discuss foreign exchange issues [1] - The meeting is scheduled for May 20-22, focusing on the separation of currency issues from direct trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. [1] - Kato and Bessent last met on April 24, agreeing to continue constructive dialogue on monetary policy without setting exchange rate targets [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar surged due to a temporary tariff reduction agreement between the U.S. and China, alleviating concerns about a potential global economic recession [2] - Risk sentiment improved, leading to a decline in safe-haven currencies like the yen, with the dollar reaching 148.66 yen, the highest level since April 3 [2] - Kato stated that the Japanese government will closely monitor the developments related to the U.S.-China agreement and assess its impact, although he refrained from commenting on exchange rate trends [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of agility and flexibility for policymakers in the context of economic uncertainty [1] - Short-term trade wars can lead to increased uncertainty in the economic environment [1]

据金融界报道，近日，对于即将到来的中美经济高层会谈，外交部副部长华春莹做出表示。华春莹明确 表示，中方完全有信心也有能力处理来自于美国的贸易问题，美国国内民众也受到了关税问题的严重影 响，美国的贸易政策不得民心，是走不远的。同时，华春莹还强调，中方不希望与任何国家打贸易战。 中方有勇气直面这次的会谈，坚持到最后，克服一切贸易困难。 美国民众和和部分商人十分依赖中国进口产品，关税提高使得这些产品价格提高，民众对政府的支持率 不断下滑，商人也多次联合起来要求白宫方面降低关税。与此同时，对于美国随意提高关税的霸权行 为，欧盟向世界贸易组织提出诉讼，并计划对美国进口产品进行经济反制措施。美方的行为破坏了美国 和欧盟之间的贸易关系，欧盟对美国的产品进行反制，迫使美国调整关税使其恢复正常。 中国加入世贸组织，经济开始调整，复苏，发展，崛起，美国开始害怕，害怕作为第二大经济体的中国 再发展下去会超越自己。美国以维护自身发展利益为借口，提高了关税，极力打压中国的产品，打贸易 战，企图以此来遏制住中国的经济发展。但事实证明，美方的行为并没有起到很好的效果，反而引起了 美国国内多方不满，甚至是欧盟的反对。 贸易港口（资料图） 特 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: The soybean market is influenced by international production and domestic supply - demand. The soybean oil 2509 contract may have short - term range - bound oscillations, and the soybean meal may experience short - term oscillations. The domestic soybean oil mid - term de - stocking cycle may end, and inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price will maintain a relatively strong performance in the short term due to supply tightness and weak demand [2]. - **Copper**: The copper price's monthly K - line shows a balance between yin and yang. In the short term, investors can try to enter the market based on the moving average system [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium 2507 contract may have a weak - side oscillation, and investors can short at high prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price is under pressure [4][5]. - **Steel**: The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market. Investors can consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts after May [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. They will have a low - level weak - side oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. The 2509 contract will have short - term oscillations [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has oscillations. In the medium - long term, the price center will move down, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is mainly driven by fundamentals, with a loose supply - demand situation globally. It is running weakly, and investors can pay attention to the support at around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10][11]. - **PVC**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the futures price may have low - level oscillations [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and the futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [13]. 3. Summary by Product Soybean and Related Products - **Spot Information**: The price of Rizhao Jiji first - grade soybean oil is 8,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 43 - protein soybean meal prices in different regions have declined [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest, and the US soybean production is expected to change. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil may increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. Corn - **Spot Information**: Different regions have different corn acquisition prices, such as 2,194 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia and 2,439 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the Sino - US tariff dispute on the corn market is limited. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage and weak demand [2]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,060 - 78,490 yuan, up 70 yuan, with a discount of 50 - premium of 20 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress, and domestic policies are supportive. However, the raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory is rapidly declining [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is priced at 65,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan, and the industrial - grade is 63,550 yuan/ton, also down 450 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is high, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai rebar price is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The iron ore Platts index is 98.6, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 756 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed, and the market is affected by the US tariff policy [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts boost the price, but the OPEC+ production increase and trade - war concerns affect the price. The medium - long - term price center will move down [9]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively in the text. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, and the demand may be suppressed by the US auto tariff [10][11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing slightly [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.88 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is average. The market will have wide - range oscillations [13].

Group 1 - The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, marking a dramatic shift in trade relations and exposing vulnerabilities in the US economy [1][3] - The agreement includes a phased withdrawal of tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and maintaining a 10% base tariff, while China has lowered its tariffs to 10%-45% [3][5] - The negotiations revealed the strategic importance of rare earth elements, with China maintaining strict control over their export, impacting US military and high-tech industries [5][7] Group 2 - China's negotiation strategy involved leveraging its control over 17 key rare earth metals, which effectively targeted the US high-end manufacturing sector without violating WTO rules [7] - The trade war has led to increased costs for American consumers, with a reported annual increase of $3,800 in household spending due to tariffs [5] - The ongoing competition between the US and China is expected to escalate into a tech war, particularly in the semiconductor sector, as both countries prepare for future confrontations [8][10] Group 3 - The trade agreement is seen as a temporary pause, with underlying tensions remaining, particularly regarding supply chain dependencies and the potential for a renewed trade conflict [8][10] - China's market diversification efforts are aimed at reducing reliance on the US, with a focus on strengthening ties with emerging markets [7] - The US is exploring ways to rebuild supply chains outside of China, indicating that the trade war may evolve into a new phase of economic competition [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant improvement in market risk appetite following the trade consensus between the US and China, leading to a decline in the Japanese yen and a rise in Japanese stock markets [1][3][4] - The US has agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will lower tariffs on most US imports to 10%, which has positively impacted Japanese stocks [2][6] - The Nikkei 225 index and the TOPIX index are experiencing substantial gains, with the former potentially achieving its longest consecutive rise since August 2009 [1][2][4] Group 2 - Major US technology stocks, referred to as the "Magnificent 7," have rebounded significantly, contributing to a 3.3% rise in the S&P 500 index and a 4.02% increase in the Nasdaq 100 index, indicating a return to a technical bull market [3][4] - The easing of previous market fears regarding a potential economic downturn due to US-China trade tensions has led to a more optimistic outlook for the Japanese export economy, particularly benefiting companies like Toyota and Nintendo [4][6] - The recent trade consensus is expected to pave the way for a trade agreement between Japan and the US, with Japanese investors awaiting formal negotiations [4][6]

Group 1 - The core point of the joint statement from the China-US Geneva trade talks is the significant reduction of tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs imposed on China and suspending 24% for 90 days, resulting in a current tariff level of 10% [3] - The statement indicates that both sides have agreed to establish a mechanism for ongoing dialogue regarding economic and trade relations, aiming to resolve differences and enhance cooperation [5][9] - The market reacted positively to the announcement, with significant increases in stock indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, indicating global optimism about the improvement in China-US relations and trade [5][9] Group 2 - The United Nations welcomed the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US, viewing them as a positive signal for the world economy [7][8] - The European Union expressed support for the consensus reached in the talks, emphasizing the importance of reducing trade barriers and ensuring the stability of global supply chains [8] - The Director-General of the World Trade Organization highlighted the significance of the talks, stating that the progress made is crucial not only for the US and China but also for other regions, especially vulnerable economies [8]