Core Viewpoint - The investment outlook for Asian investors is cautious due to economic uncertainty and fluctuating market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is unclear, with increasing concerns about its impact on the market [1] - Discrepancies among Federal Open Market Committee members highlight the uncertainty in economic forecasts, with some advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others oppose any cuts [1] - Fed Chair Powell warned that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, contributing to market anxiety [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. equities have rebounded nearly 40% from their "liberation day" lows but have recently become more volatile [1] - Concerns are growing over high valuations, skepticism regarding AI spending, and issues related to AI infrastructure debt financing [1] - Factors such as a recent government shutdown, weakening private sector employment data, declining consumer confidence, and unclear Fed policy are deepening market worries [1] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Investment Strategy - Corporate earnings remain strong, and M&A activity is on the rise, supported by fiscal and monetary policy [2] - AI spending is identified as a key driver of economic growth, corporate earnings, and market performance, offsetting weaknesses in real estate, manufacturing, and the job market [2] - The company maintains a neutral stance on risk assets while closely monitoring economic sector disparities [2] Group 4: Stock Market Preferences - The company holds a neutral position on U.S. equities across market capitalizations, noting that while large caps may benefit from AI optimism, small caps present attractive valuations and could benefit from lower interest rates and increased M&A/IPO activity [2] - A higher allocation to Chinese stocks is maintained, with technology expected to be a key growth driver for China [2] - The company is underweight on U.S. long-term Treasuries due to potential upward pressure on yields from U.S. government financing needs [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan on the day. The 11 - month LPR quote remained unchanged, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [3][4]. - The market sentiment was cautious, with the stock index oscillating and closing down. The macro - level is a mix of positives and negatives. The market lacks a core driving force, and there are differences in market expectations. The stock index is expected to continue the oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure upwards [6]. 3. Key Points by Category Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan after 190 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3]. - The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - Interest rates of various varieties changed, such as DRO01 at 1.37% (- 5.67bp), DR007 at 1.49% (- 2.74bp), etc. [3] Stock Index and Market Conditions - The stock indexes fell, with the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 down 0.51% to 4564.9, the Shanghai 50 down 0.4% to 3008.3, the CSI 500 down 0.85% to 7061.9, and the CSI 1000 down 0.63% to 7340.4. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7082 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.7 billion yuan [6]. - The market sentiment was cautious, and the stock index oscillated and closed down. The market lacks a core driving force, and there are differences in market expectations. The stock index is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [6]. Futures Market - Futures prices of different varieties changed, such as IF down 0.6%, IH down 0.3%, IC down 0.7%, and IM down 0.6%. Trading volumes and open interests also had different changes [5]. - The premium and discount rates of different futures contracts varied, for example, IF's premium rate for the current - month contract was 55.56%, and IH's discount rate for the current - month contract was - 3.76% [7].

Monetary Policy - The 1-year LPR remains stable at 3%, and the 5-year LPR is also unchanged at 3.5%, indicating a low interest rate environment is likely to persist for an extended period[2] - The central bank conducted a 300 billion CNY 7-day reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 110 billion CNY for the day[2] Foreign Investment Outlook - Several foreign institutions, including UBS and Morgan Stanley, have raised their target indices for the Chinese market, indicating a positive long-term outlook for Chinese equities[3] - Foreign institutions have conducted over 1,300 A-share company surveys since the beginning of Q4, reflecting increased interest in domestic stocks[3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,931.05 points, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76% to 12,980.82 points, with total trading volume of 1,708.19 billion CNY, a decrease of 177.2 billion CNY from the previous trading day[4] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently at 1.816%, with a slight increase of 0.1 basis points[5] Currency and Exchange Rates - The US Dollar Index closed at 100.2193, up 0.09%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 5 basis points against the USD, closing at 7.1178[5]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations and indicating stability in monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR has not changed for six consecutive months since a 10 basis point drop in May 2025, reflecting a stable macroeconomic environment [2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted a 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.4%, indicating efforts to maintain market liquidity [1]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) has shown a downward trend, with the overnight Shibor down by 5.6 basis points to 1.364% [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Recent economic data shows a decline in domestic investment, consumption, and industrial production, raising concerns about economic growth momentum [3]. - The PBOC is expected to implement new monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts, to stimulate economic growth and address high mortgage rates [3]. - The anticipated measures include targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR to alleviate the burden of high housing loan rates and stimulate market demand [3].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates that the Federal Reserve's policy choices will be increasingly path-dependent due to overlapping influences of inflation, economic growth pressures, and the political cycle [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The upcoming change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, with Jerome Powell's term ending in May 2026, is expected to significantly impact policy communication and market expectations [1] - Monetary policy is evolving from a passive response to economic conditions to a more integrated approach that considers fiscal pressures, debt costs, and administrative policy preferences [1] - The certainty of a rate cut path is increasing, driven by the sensitivity of fiscal conditions to interest rates, which necessitates balancing fiscal sustainability with debt issuance pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Short-term inflation disturbances caused by tariffs have not altered the overall downward trend of inflation, while the labor market is experiencing wage stickiness that is gradually easing due to factors like AI replacement and immigration policy adjustments [1] - This easing of wage stickiness provides additional space for a more accommodative interest rate environment [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Projections - The macro team projects that the Federal Reserve will implement approximately four rate cuts by the end of 2026, bringing the policy rate to a range of 2.75% to 3% [2] - The reduction in interest rates is expected to alleviate debt financing cost pressures and create a mild recovery space for interest-sensitive sectors such as real estate, serving as a critical support mechanism amid economic downturn pressures [2]

根据《华尔街日报》最新调查，韩国央行预计将下周举行的货币政策会议上维持基准利率于2.50%不 变。 在受访的11位分析师中，有10位明确预期本次会议将按兵不动。 支撑这一判断的主要因素在于近期宏观经济数据表现强劲。韩国第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速超 出市场预期，叠加芯片出口持续走强，显示出经济内生动能有所增强。在此背景下，韩国央行可能上调 其此前对2025年和2026年的经济增长预测——当前分别为0.9%和1.6%。 韩国央行周二公布的数据显示，受抵押贷款增长趋稳影响，韩国家庭债务扩张速度在第三季度明显放 缓，但仍维持在较高水平。当季家庭总信贷环比增加14.9万亿韩元，增幅为0.8%，低于第二季度的增 速。其中，抵押贷款新增11.6万亿韩元，构成家庭信贷增长的主要部分；其他类型贷款（包括信用贷款 和证券保证金贷款）仅增加3000亿韩元，显示非住房类借贷活动显著降温。 韩国央行货币及金融统计组组长金敏秀指出，继第二季度家庭贷款较快增长后，政府于6月和10月相继 出台房地产市场调控措施，已对信贷扩张形成有效抑制。 目前，市场普遍预期韩国央行将在本次会议上维持利率不变。随着第三季度GDP超预期、芯片出口强劲 ...

全球资本市场周一呈现普涨格局，半导体巨头英伟达19日发布的超预期财报成为核心驱动力。受此利好 提振，美股三大指数全线收高，并带动亚太及欧洲主要股指同步走强。风险资产的强势表现令市场避险 情绪显著降温，具有对冲属性的贵金属板块遭遇抛售压力，现货黄金日内震荡下行，创近三周最大单日 跌幅。 美国劳工部20日发布的9月就业报告显示，美国9月份非农就业人数增加11.9万人，远高于此前预期的5 万人增幅。整体失业率从8月份的4.3%小幅上升至4.4%。劳工部此前表示，由于数据不足，将取消发布 10月份就业报告，部分10月份就业数据将被纳入美联储12月10日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议决 议后发布的报告中。此举促使交易员下调了对美联储12月降息25个基点的预期。 回顾周四（11月20日）COMEX黄金期货日K收跌，在20日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场中，交投最 为活跃的2025年12月黄金期价出现下跌，跌幅为0.15%，具体下跌6.1美元后，最终收于每盎司4076.7美 元。这一价格变动主要受到美国9月就业报告的影响。该报告显示就业情况强于预期，进而引发了市场 对于美国货币政策鹰派的预期。在这种预期下，黄金价格走势受 ...

金融研究 2025年11月21日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 20 日，A 股四大股指延续调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.4%，报收 3931.05 点；深成 指下跌 0.76%，报收 12980.82 点；创业板指下跌 1.12%，报收 3042.34 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.24%， 报收 1328.19 点。市场成交 17,226 亿元，较前日减少 200 亿元。行业板块方面，建筑材料(+1.4%)， 综合(+0.87%)，银行(+0.86%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-2.39%)，煤炭(-2.1%)，电力设备(-1.96%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,452/150/3,846。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-156、-210、34、332 亿元，分别变动+23、-41、-24、+42 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 76.81、61.95、25.75 与 5.69 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-11.89%、-9.97%、-6.41%与-2.15%，三年期历史分 ...

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years at 3.5%, unchanged for six consecutive months, aligning with expectations [1] - The unchanged LPR is attributed to the stable 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 1.40%, which serves as the basis for LPR pricing [1] - Banks are facing pressure from narrowing interest margins, with the net interest margin at 1.42%, unchanged from the previous quarter but down 10 basis points from the end of last year, reducing the incentive to lower LPR quotes [1] Group 2 - In October, the weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points [2] - The decline in financing costs reflects a moderately accommodative monetary policy, indicating ample funding supply [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to focus more on directing financial resources towards key areas such as technological innovation, consumption stimulation, and green initiatives, enhancing policy precision [2] - The PBOC's report emphasizes maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to reduce speculative capital flows and improve monetary policy transmission [2] - Continued liquidity support is necessary to stabilize market confidence and expectations amid local government debt management and the implementation of new policy tools [2]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland Federal Reserve President Mester warns that further interest rate cuts could pose widespread risks to the economy due to persistently high inflation above the Fed's 2% target [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Mester emphasizes that lowering interest rates to support the labor market could prolong the current high inflation period and encourage risk-taking behavior in financial markets [1] - She opposes the recent decision by the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% to support a weak labor market [1] Group 2: Financial Conditions - Current financial conditions are described as "quite accommodative," with rising stock prices and loose credit conditions, which could lead to cheaper credit supporting high-risk loans [1] - Mester notes that a decline in short-term borrowing costs led by the Fed could distort market pricing, potentially resulting in a larger economic downturn when it occurs [1] Group 3: Economic Stability - While Mester acknowledges that rate cuts may be seen as a safeguard for the job market, she warns that this "insurance" could come at the cost of increased financial stability risks [1] - She highlights that the financial system is currently in good shape, with strong bank capital and stable household balance sheets, but raises concerns about high leverage levels in hedge funds and insurance companies [2]