Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese market is expected to present a "dual bull" scenario for stocks and bonds in the second half of 2025, driven by structural investment opportunities in the new economy and a low-interest-rate environment leading to an asset shortage in the bond market [1][3] - The A-share market, despite uncertainties, is supported by a loose liquidity environment and recognition from decision-makers of the stock market's impact on public confidence and consumption [1][3] - Emerging markets, particularly the Greater China region, are seen as attractive investment opportunities, with structural opportunities in cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and stable performance in the industrial manufacturing sector [2][3] Group 2 - The bond market is influenced by significant changes, including the volatility of the US dollar index and the strengthening of the RMB, which historically correlates with better performance of domestic stock assets [2][3] - The current low-interest-rate environment, with one-year fixed deposit rates below 1%, is prompting a shift towards diversified asset allocation, including fixed income, stocks, overseas short-term bonds, and gold [3] - The bond market is expected to continue playing a stabilizing role in investment portfolios, with a favorable macro environment supporting its performance, despite declining yields [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of asset allocation strategies based on both long-term and short-term perspectives, utilizing historical data to optimize investment portfolios [21][22][23]. Asset Performance Overview - Equity assets showed strong performance, with the CSI 300 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index rising by 3.5% and 2.4% respectively over the past month, while the Indian Sensex 30 Index declined by 2.9% [7][6]. - In the bond market, government bond yields increased, leading to a 0.2% decline in the government bond index, while corporate bond indices remained stable due to narrowing credit spreads [12][11]. - Commodity assets experienced a 3.8% increase in the South China Commodity Index in July, although gold prices fluctuated, ending the month nearly flat [17][16]. Asset Allocation Strategies - The report suggests a debt-oriented asset allocation strategy comprising 10% Asia-Pacific emerging market stocks, 80% corporate bonds, and 10% gold [28]. - A mixed asset allocation strategy is recommended, including 23% Nasdaq 100 Index, 7% CSI 300 Index, 40% corporate bonds, and 30% commodities [28]. Strategy Performance Tracking - From April 2015 to July 2025, the mean-variance model strategy achieved an annualized return of 6.81% with a maximum drawdown of 3.6% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.76 [25]. - The strategy's performance from January 2025 to July 2025 yielded a cumulative return of 1.97%, with a notable return of -0.15% in July due to insufficient bond contributions and declines in the Indian market index [25][27]. Model Utilization - The report employs a mean-variance model for long-term asset allocation, which outperforms constant mix strategies, and integrates the Black-Litterman model to enhance return stability by combining historical and recent performance data [22][23][24].

30年国债ETF 511090 数据来源:Wind,截至2025年8月4日。同类指全市 场30年国债ETF。 小贴士 ETF流动性是投资者选择ETF产品的关键指标, 成交额高通常意味着流动性活跃,投 资者能以合理的价格高效买卖ETF,提升投资体验和降低交易成本。 8月4日成交额 日 同类ETF第 截至2025年8月5日 14:11，30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.35%，最新价报123.46元。流动性方面，30年国债 ETF盘中换手28.27%，成交64.82亿元，市场交投活跃。值得一提的是，30年国债ETF昨日（8月4日）全天 成交99.62亿元，居全市场同类ETF第一！（数据来源：Wind，截至2025年8月4日。同类指全市场30年国债 ETF。） 规模方面，Wind数据显示，30年国债ETF最新规模达229.51亿元。资金流入方面，拉长时间看，30年国债 ETF近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸金"9.96亿元。 消息面方面，8月1日盘后，财政部与税务总局联合发布公告。根据新规，自2025年8月8日起，新发行的国 债、地方政府债及金融债利息收入恢复征收增值税，而存量"老券"则维持免税待遇（ ...

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on August 1, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6] Global Bond Market 10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - In major economies on August 1, 2025, the US was at 4.218%, the UK at 4.526%, France at 3.346%, etc. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.172, and the one - year change was -0.067 [3] 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - Yields and their changes are presented for different countries. For instance, China (1Y) was at 3.940 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of 0.080 [3] Exchange Rate Market Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 1, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.542, with a latest change of -1.04%. There were also changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] RMB Exchange Rates - The on - shore RMB was at 7.193, the offshore RMB at 7.194, etc. on August 1, 2025, with different changes in different time frames [3] Global Stock Index Market Major Economies' Stock Indices - As of August 1, 2025, the Dow Jones was at 6238.010, the S&P 500 at 43588.580, etc. There were different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the latest change in the Dow Jones was -1.60%, and the one - year change was 14.94% [3] Other Stock Indices - The report also includes data on the Russian, Japanese, and other countries' stock indices, such as the Nikkei at 40799.600 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of -0.66% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3559.95 with a -0.37% change [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for CSI 300, S&P 500, etc. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.12 with a -0.07环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium and its环比 changes are presented for some indices. For example, the 1/PE - 10 rate of the S&P 500 was -0.44 with a 0.22环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, etc. are shown. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -522.29 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15983.51 with a -3376.84环比 change [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis and basis ratio of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was -25.33 with a -0.62% basis ratio [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.435 with a 0.17% change [6] - The money market shows the R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M rates and their daily changes in basis points [6]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of combining macro quantification with factor momentum to select resonant factors, particularly focusing on growth factors while considering market conditions [1][4] - Current macro indicators show economic decline, slightly loose liquidity, and improving credit indicators, leading to a correction in the direction of economic downturn and tight liquidity [3][4] - The article identifies that the stock pools are still biased towards growth factors, especially in the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 indices, while the CSI 500 leans more towards fundamental factors [4][5] Group 2 - Economic leading indicators suggest a potential slight increase after reaching a short-term bottom in August 2025, despite recent declines in PMI and new orders [6][8] - Various leading indicators are analyzed, indicating that many are in a downward cycle, with expectations for some to reach their bottom by early 2026 [9][10] - The liquidity environment is assessed as slightly loose, with interest rates remaining stable and monetary supply indicators suggesting a continuation of this trend [12][14] Group 3 - Credit indicators are generally weak, but the overall credit environment remains positive, with some signs of recovery in recent months [15][16] - The article recommends increasing stock allocations due to improving equity trends, while reducing allocations in other asset classes [16][17] - The focus remains on liquidity as the most significant variable affecting market dynamics, with credit and inflation also being monitored [18][20] Group 4 - The article suggests industry selection based on economic sensitivity and credit sensitivity, highlighting sectors that are less sensitive to economic downturns but more responsive to credit conditions [20][21] - Industries identified as having high growth potential include electronics, media, and beauty care, which are less affected by economic fluctuations [20][21]

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the restoration of VAT on pure bond markets, predicting a reduction in interest income for bond investors by 5-10 basis points [9][10][11] - Short-term effects of the VAT policy may lead to a scarcity of tax-exempt existing bonds, potentially triggering a buying spree [9][10] - In the medium term, the VAT restoration could slow the inflow of funds into the bond market, as institutions may seek higher yields from other asset classes [10][11] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the advantages of participating in the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) new share offerings, which offer low costs and high returns, making them suitable for enhancing fixed income+ products [11][12] - Historical data shows that new shares listed on the BSE have maintained significant first-day price increases, averaging over 300% since 2025 [12][13] - The report suggests that the optimal strategy for new share subscriptions involves balancing the amount of capital invested with the probability of successful allocation, with findings indicating that investing 1.7 times the minimum subscription amount yields the highest efficiency [23][25] Group 3 - The report notes that the fixed income market is currently facing challenges due to declining returns, prompting investors to explore fixed income+ strategies [8] - It outlines the expected issuance of 8,285 billion in interest rate bonds this week, indicating a high level of activity in the bond market [27][29] - The sentiment in the bond market is recovering, with various interest rate bonds showing a downward trend in yields, suggesting a favorable environment for bond investors [32][33]

Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company focused on core capabilities and business transformation, leading to significant growth in major business revenues compared to the same period last year [2] - The self-operated investment business and commission income from the brokerage business saw substantial increases, contributing to a significant year-on-year performance growth [2] Group 2: Brokerage and Internet Business - The company's brokerage business market share for stock-based transactions reached 2.75% in 2024, with continuous improvement in account numbers and quality [2] - The company is enhancing its digital operations to meet customer needs, focusing on both new and existing clients [2] Group 3: Investment Advisory Services - There is a notable increase in demand for professional asset allocation and advisory services, driven by a low-interest environment and market recovery [3] - The company has promoted a "full account commission" advisory service model, enhancing service value and customer loyalty [3] Group 4: Proprietary Investment Strategy - The company employs a diversified asset allocation strategy to manage investments, including stocks, bonds, derivatives, and funds, to mitigate risks and seize investment opportunities [4] - The focus on dividend investment and stable fixed-income strategies aims to maintain overall risk levels while exploring customer-driven trading opportunities [4] Group 5: Acquisition Progress - The acquisition of Wanhe Securities has been approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's merger and acquisition review committee, pending registration completion [6] - Post-acquisition, the company aims to leverage Wanhe Securities' advantages in cross-border asset management within the Hainan Free Trade Port [6] Group 6: Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a cash dividend ratio exceeding 40% for four consecutive years, positioning it as a leader among large listed brokerages [6] - Future dividend policies will adhere to regulatory requirements and company bylaws, ensuring consistency and stability in cash dividends [6]

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, major asset performance was led by the ChiNext Index, followed by oil and the CSI 500, with a general upward trend in risk assets, particularly in Chinese markets, while commodities showed mixed results [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In July, risk assets mostly rose, with Chinese assets leading the way and U.S. stocks reaching new highs, while domestic commodities experienced low-level increases [2][14]. - The performance of commodities was predominantly positive, with oil prices rising due to multiple favorable factors, while copper prices retreated due to lower-than-expected copper tariffs [2][17]. - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with technology stocks showing significant resilience due to strong earnings reports [2][19]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic landscape in July 2025 was characterized by a divergence between hard and soft data in the U.S., while China's soft data indicated a slowdown [4][62]. - The domestic "stock-bond seesaw" effect deepened, with the total A-share index rising by 4.7% in July, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5.75 basis points to 1.71% [2][32]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Equity Assets - Future drivers for equity assets may include "profitability and risk appetite," with A-shares needing to respond to fundamental factors such as PPI trends and mid-year earnings [5][62]. - The reduction of uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariffs could enhance short-term export certainty, as recent high-level trade talks indicated a potential extension of tariff measures [5][62]. - New technological themes, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, are expected to create investment opportunities [5][62]. Group 4: Market Timing Signals - The M1-BCI-PPI timing system indicated a slight improvement in overall positive signals despite a slowdown in actual GDP growth [6][62]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio showed a return to neutrality, suggesting that while equity assets have lost some advantage, the overall score still leans towards equities [7][62]. Group 5: Sector Performance - In July, over 90% of industries in the domestic market reported positive returns, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the gains, particularly in steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials [2][32][44]. - The real estate sector saw a widening year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand home sales showing more resilience compared to new homes [2][42]. Group 6: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed a general upward trend in July, with significant increases in domestic pricing for black metals and polysilicon, while international oil and copper prices exhibited mixed performance [17][62]. - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 7.3% in July, driven by geopolitical factors and tariff negotiations, although it faced a pullback in early August [17][62].

Group 1 - The report anticipates a strong rebound in the A-share market in August 2025, with potential volatility due to alternating negative scores in the internal model [2][6][30] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to follow a similar trend as the A-share market, with recent easing of pressure on the Hong Kong dollar from the US dollar index [2][6] - Growth style is likely to outperform in relative returns, while dividend sectors may perform moderately [2][6][30] Group 2 - The US stock market is projected to experience wide fluctuations in August, with high risk levels indicated by the risk trend model [2][6] - The gold market is assessed to have a medium risk level, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation expected [2][6] - The report suggests a continued inverse fluctuation pattern between US stocks and gold, with attention needed on events driven by the "Trump 2.0" tariff framework [2][6] Group 3 - The domestic bond market is expected to show limited fundamental recovery, with a prevailing loose policy tone and overall interest rates likely to remain strong [2][6] - The US bond market is supported by fundamental pressures, easing supply, and rising risk aversion, contributing to a downward trend in interest rates [2][6] Group 4 - The report recommends a relatively balanced asset allocation strategy, anticipating a wide fluctuation market with ongoing structural opportunities [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities emphasizes its commitment to a diversified asset allocation strategy to manage investments, aiming to reduce volatility and market rotation risks while seizing investment opportunities across various asset classes [1] Group 1: Investment Management Strategy - The company employs a broad asset allocation approach, utilizing stocks, bonds, derivatives, convertible bonds, and funds to mitigate risks [1] - By leveraging the hedging mechanisms between different asset classes, the company aims to control overall risk levels and maintain stability in proprietary business across varying market conditions [1] Group 2: Equity Investment Strategy - In equity investments, the company focuses on dividend investment, value growth investment, and discount protection investment strategies, with a primary emphasis on dividend investment [1] Group 3: Fixed Income Investment Strategy - The company adheres to a prudent investment approach in fixed income, primarily holding interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds, while actively seeking trading opportunities in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Group 4: Derivative Business Strategy - The company adopts a cautious approach in its derivatives business, ensuring compliance and actively managing risks, while promoting high-quality business development [1] - Plans to enhance the variety of business offerings and optimize customer structure based on actual business needs, alongside continuous improvement of the derivatives business system [1]