Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Views - The report expresses optimism for industrial metals due to easing tariff expectations and a favorable domestic macroeconomic environment [2]. - Industrial metal prices have shown resilience, with LME prices for aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin experiencing increases of +0.12%, +1.83%, +1.25%, +0.51%, +1.21%, and +6.70% respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in industrial metal inventories, particularly for copper (-11.66%) and aluminum (-2.33%), indicating tightening supply conditions [1][2]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the SMM copper concentrate import index increased by $0.27/ton, indicating a slight improvement in supply conditions [2]. - Domestic copper cable manufacturers' operating rates decreased to 76.08%, reflecting seasonal demand weakness [2]. - Aluminum prices are stabilizing after initial volatility due to geopolitical events, with domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreasing by 0.7 thousand tons [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices continue to decline but are approaching mining cost levels, while cobalt prices are expected to rise due to potential supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3]. - Nickel prices have shown slight recovery, but overall demand remains weak, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations [3]. Precious Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for gold prices due to expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [4]. - Silver prices have surged, reaching levels not seen since March 2012, driven by a favorable market environment [4]. - Key companies in the precious metals sector are recommended for investment, including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, with recommendations for investment in companies like Zijin Mining (PE 12), Luoyang Molybdenum (PE 11), and Yunnan Aluminum (PE 6) [4].

Group 1 - Silver and platinum prices have surged, with silver reaching a high of $36.263 per ounce, the highest since February 2012, and platinum hitting $1172.59 per ounce, the highest in nearly two years [1][2] - Year-to-date, silver has increased by approximately 24% and platinum by 28%, comparable to gold's performance [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to geopolitical tensions, fluctuating tariff policies, and recovering demand, alongside technical factors driving price increases [1][2] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of 106 when gold prices surged to $3500 per ounce, prompting hedge funds to shift positions from gold to silver [2] - Historical trends indicate that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, silver has a 70% probability of experiencing a price increase, with expectations of returning to a more reasonable range of 60-70 [2] - Strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China are contributing to the market's upward momentum [2][3] Group 3 - Economic recovery is expected to significantly boost industrial demand for silver, which is essential in various sectors such as electronics, photovoltaics, and automotive manufacturing [3] - Silver's role in clean energy technologies provides a solid fundamental support for its price increase [3] - Current market analysis suggests that silver's upward trend is likely to continue until a significant risk event disrupts the price trajectory [3]

6月6日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，个别金店金价不断起伏中。今日的最高价金店为六福等金店，不涨不 跌，报价1020元/克。上海中国黄金价格不变，报价981元/克，仍是最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差39元/克，价差稍稍缩 小。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 昨日现货黄金盘中一度突破3400美元大关，不过很快就出现急跌。中美双方同意继续落实日内瓦经贸会谈共识，尽快举行 新一轮会谈，市场避险情绪削弱。最低跌至3338.29美元/盎司。最终收报3352.63美元/盎司，跌幅0.59%。今日金价仍在震 荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3357.40美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。 注意，今晚就将公布美国5月非农数据，市场预期新增12.5万个岗位，对比上月大幅减少。不过巴克莱的美国经济学家乔纳 森·米勒预测5月新增就业岗位将达到15万个。而非农数据强劲可能强化美元，限制金价涨幅。 此外，昨日有以色列官员透露，以色列已向白宫保证，暂不会对伊朗核设施发动攻击，除非美国总统特朗普发出与伊朗谈 判失败的信号。市场的避险情绪削弱，压制昨日金价下行。 | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年6月6日) | | | | -- ...

【白银期货行情表现】 【宏观消息】 特朗普与马斯克关系破裂，特斯拉市值迅速蒸发千亿美元。特斯拉CEO马斯克一再公开抨击特朗普政府 的大规模支出法案，美国总统特朗普直言马斯克"疯了"，他突然掉头攻击法案，是因为撤销拜登的电动 汽车税收抵免；没有马斯克支持，大选也会赢得宾州。马斯克则称，之前没给他看过法案；削减电动车 激励却不减油气补贴"非常不公平" ，即便如此也应"瘦而美"，从来没什么"大漂亮"法案，特朗普没有他 支持不会赢得大选。马斯克并称，特朗普的关税将导致下半年美国经济衰退。公开骂战后，马斯克又公 开表态，认为特朗普应该被弹劾。 【机构观点】 广发期货：在欧洲央行降息和财政政策刺激下 白银突破前高阻力创13年新高 在欧洲央行降息和财政政策刺激下，白银突破前高阻力创13年新高，后续在光伏"抢装"和提前备库等因 素推动下，有望持续走高。 美联储的利率政策和关税政策可能是短期扰动因素，预计今年的利率政策会更加谨慎，关税政策和地缘 政治冲突的演变主导着市场避险情绪变化。 根据美国最新数据，非农数据显示劳动力市场较为强劲，非农就业人口超过市场预期，失业率稳定在至 4.2%；4月PCE数据显示通胀数据放缓，核心PCE ...

Group 1 - The strong performance of silver is directly related to the complexities in the US-Japan trade negotiations, with internal disagreements among US officials causing market concerns about escalating trade tensions [3] - Technical analysis indicates that despite the RSI reaching an overbought zone, the bullish momentum remains intact, with a key resistance level at $36.10 that could lead to a target of $37.04 if maintained [4] - The mid-term outlook for silver remains supported by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside the uncertainty revealed in the US-Japan negotiations, enhancing silver's appeal as a crisis hedge [5] Group 2 - The COMEX silver futures non-commercial net long positions have increased for three consecutive weeks, indicating a strategic demand from institutional investors for precious metals [4] - There are potential risks in the $36-$37 range due to significant resistance levels established since 2013, which could trigger technical corrections [5] - Short-term investors are advised to hold long positions with a stop-loss at $35.50, targeting $36.80, while mid-term strategies should wait for a pullback after a breakout above $37 [5]

【交易策略】 此前特朗普再度提高关税，造成全球贸易格局以及经济增长的恶化风险增加，叠加俄乌局势进一步升 温，使得市场避险情绪加剧，贵金属由此大幅上涨。随着市场情绪的稳定，金银价格再度恢复震荡。短 期预计贵金属价格将在政策信号与宏观数据公布的影响下保持偏强。 周三的一项私营部门调查显示，日本服务业活动的增长放缓幅度低于 5 月份的预期。au Jibun Bank 日本 服务业采购经理人指数 （PMI） 的最终读数从 50.8 初值修正至 51.0。这低于上个月的最终数据 52.4， 尽管它表明服务活动连续第二次扩张。 该数据使人们对日本央行 在下半年再次加息充满希望，并在亚洲时段小幅提振日元。与此同时，日本 央行行长植田一男周二听起来很谨慎，并在议会中表示，海外贸易政策、经济和价格形势的不确定性仍 然极高。 植田补充说，没有预设的加息计划，除非经济足够强劲，否则他不会推动提高利率。此外，有报道称， 如果主要反对党提交不信任动议，日本首相石破茂可能会解散国会以提前举行大选，这可能会限制日元 的任何进一步上涨。 【白银期货最新行情】 6月4日 收盘价（元/千克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪银主力 8 ...

昨日现货黄金受美元走强以及美债收益率升高的影响而走跌，盘中最低跌至了3332.99美元/盎司，后出现小幅回升，收报 3352.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.84%。今日金价震荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3352.04美元/盎司，跌幅0.02%。 昨日美元走强主要是因晚间公布的4月JOLTs职位空缺数据超预期增长，市场认为美国经济仍保持良好态势，提振美元。 Brown Brothers Harriman高级策略师Elias Haddad称，"4月JOLTS数据仍然反映劳动力市场稳健，美元技术面呈现超卖状态， 短线可能会获得一些支撑。" 6月4日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，个别金店有所变化。今日的最高价金店是六福黄金等金店，不涨不 跌，报价1020元/克。上海中国黄金价格上涨25元/克，报价981元/克，仍是最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差39元/克，价差看 着小了很多，但还是很大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年6月4日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.23% to 65.98 cents per pound, and CF509 dropped 0.08% to 13,260 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 6,780 to 539,100 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,445 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,553 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan. Internationally, macro - factors, Trump's tariff policy, and weak U.S. economic data limit the upside of U.S. cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton lacks continuous upward drive but also has limited negative factors. With weak demand and expected high - yield new cotton, cotton prices face pressure, but the probability of breaking previous lows is very low. It is expected to trade in a slightly weak range in the short term. Monitor macro and weather conditions [2] - **Sugar**: The Indian National Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation estimates the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons and the production in the 2025/26 season to reach 35 million tons. The spot prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar groups decreased. The expectation of increased supply in India suppresses the futures price, which hit a 4 - and - a - half - year low. With the opening of the import sugar profit window due to the fall in raw sugar, domestic sugar prices are under pressure. A bearish view is maintained. Pay attention to May's production - sales data and future import data [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 spread was - 220, up 5; the main - contract basis was 1,293, down 1. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,445 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,553 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan [3] - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 spread was 122, up 7; the main - contract basis was 413, up 16. The Nanning spot price was 6,090 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,145 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan [3] Group 4: Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 3, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,062, down 40 from the previous day, with 374 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,445 yuan/ton, Henan 14,568 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,570 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,785 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 55.1, down 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 24.7, up 0.7; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.1, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.2, up 0.2 [4] - **Sugar**: On June 3, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the Liuzhou price was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 30,731, down 289 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of each commodity, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][14] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, with multiple awards [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures, and has won many honors [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, conducts fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title in 2024 [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weakening fundamentals, with potential for price decline. Attention should be paid to the continued decline of hot metal and the market's reaction to tariffs and production cuts [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Overall, they follow the trend of finished products, with the far - month 09 contract of coking coal continuing to weaken and coke facing profit contraction [2]. - Rebar: Price is likely to fall rather than rise, facing pressure from high production and weak demand in the off - season, as well as the impact of increased tariffs [2]. - Glass: Fundamentals lack upward momentum, with demand difficult to recover significantly, and it is in a weak operation [2]. - Stock index futures/options: It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices, as the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased [4]. - Treasury bonds: It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly, with a narrow - range rebound in the market [4]. - Gold and silver: They are expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state, with various factors such as trade policies and demand affecting their prices [4]. - Pulp: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by factors such as cost and demand [6]. - Logs: Expected to be in a volatile state, with improved fundamentals and relatively stable prices [6]. - Oils and fats: Expected to be volatile, affected by policies, production, and consumption seasons [6]. - Meal: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by trade and supply - demand factors [6]. - Soybean No. 2: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by trade disputes and supply [6]. - Soybean No. 1: Expected to be in a slightly bearish and volatile state [6]. - Live pigs: Futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, affected by supply and market expectations [8]. - Rubber: Expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state in the short term, affected by supply, demand, and policies [8]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: All in a wait - and - see state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with Trump's tariff policy intensifying trade tensions and affecting various industries. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the economic data shows a certain degree of weakness. However, the logistics demand continues to recover [2][4]. - In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some are affected by production, consumption seasons, and policies, while others are affected by cost and inventory factors. The market sentiment is also affected by trade policies and geopolitical risks [2][4][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global shipments have rebounded, but demand has weakened, with iron - water production declining for three consecutive weeks. Port inventories are still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market [2]. - Coking coal and coke: There are rumors of a 20% resource tax on coal exports from Mongolia. Coking coal production is at a high level, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall trend follows that of finished products [2]. - Rebar: Trump's tariff increase has weakened market sentiment. Supply is at a high level, while demand is poor, with a significant decline in real - estate investment and a seasonal decline in manufacturing demand [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Glass: The fundamentals are not good, with the industry's start - up rate and production increasing, but demand difficult to recover significantly due to the real - estate adjustment [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures/options: The performance of major stock indices has been positive, with some sectors having capital inflows and outflows. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has increased slightly, and the market has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: They are affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and risk - aversion. The original upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and they are expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [4]. Forestry Products - Pulp: The cost support has weakened, and demand has entered the off - season, so it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [6]. - Logs: The fundamentals have improved, with relatively stable prices, and it is expected to be in a volatile state [6]. Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, and it is in the traditional consumption off - season. They are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as weather and production - sales [6]. - Meal: Affected by trade and supply - demand factors, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The market price has fluctuated, with supply and demand showing different trends. Futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [8]. - Rubber: Supply is in a pattern of short - term tightness and long - term looseness, and demand has limited improvement. It is expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state in the short term [8]. Chemical Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: All in a wait - and - see state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9].

Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic landscape last week lacked significant data guidance, with trade tensions once again dominating the market, leading to a somewhat chaotic situation [1][3] - COMEX gold and silver prices experienced declines of 2.17% and 1.68% respectively, while COMEX copper saw a decrease of 3.35% [2][4] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold and silver fluctuated within the range of $3269 to $3385 per ounce and $32.8 to $33.8 per ounce respectively, with gold prices down by 1.8% and silver by 1.7% [21][22] - The market's risk appetite fluctuated due to the back-and-forth nature of tariff expectations, with a rebound in precious metal prices following Trump's threats to impose 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum [4][21] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing uncertainties abroad and the supportive credit logic of the dollar [52] Group 2: Base Metals Market - COMEX copper prices showed a strong upward trend, primarily driven by concerns over potential tariffs on copper [5][6] - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was reported at -$43.80 per dry ton, indicating a stable market despite limited trading activity [8] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories decreased to 139,300 tons, reflecting a reduction in market arrivals and a general lack of significant supply increases [14] Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 0.1 million ounces to 38.79 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 690,000 ounces [36] - SPDR gold ETF holdings rose by 7.7 tons to 930 tons, indicating a shift in market positioning [41] - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 3,975 contracts, while short positions fell by 14,178 contracts, suggesting a cautious market sentiment [41][42]