ETF进化论 市场流动性收紧？ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index showed divergence in moving averages, indicating a high probability of market adjustment on the specified date [1] - The market initially adjusted due to poor performance of Chinese concept stocks in the US overnight, followed by a volatile upward movement driven by fund inertia [1] - By the end of the trading day, over 3,600 stocks declined while only about 1,600 rose, confirming the previous day's analysis [1] Economic Indicators - Despite rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, the logic of domestic liquidity easing remains unchanged, suggesting a positive mid-term outlook for the market [1] - The MACD indicator showed a golden cross, but the market experienced a volume contraction adjustment, which is considered a normal fluctuation process [1] Sector Performance - The innovative drug sector performed poorly due to skepticism about the low upfront payments received by leading stocks, raising doubts about the prospects of innovative drugs going overseas [2] - The battery sector initially rose due to quantitative fund support but later experienced a pullback, impacting overall sector sentiment [2] - The military industry sector, expected to strengthen due to news from Iran, also followed the overall market decline, indicating weakness [2] Investment Opportunities - Nvidia and Broadcom reaching new highs is a positive signal for related hardware sectors in the A-share market, although valuations of related stocks are no longer considered undervalued, warranting caution from investors [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.48%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.66%, while the total market turnover was 16,231 billion yuan, a decrease of 163 billion yuan from the previous day [1][17]. Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector reached new highs, with major banks such as ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and others continuing to climb. The banking sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 16.94%, leading among 31 primary industries [3]. Hong Kong Monetary Authority Intervention - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened by purchasing 9.42 billion HKD due to the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate triggering the "weak side convertibility guarantee." This marked the first intervention since May 2023, resulting in a decrease in the banking system's liquidity to 164.098 billion HKD [4][6]. Hibor Rate Movements - Following the HKMA's intervention, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) saw a significant rise, with the overnight Hibor increasing from 0.02071% to 0.03750%, marking a daily increase of 1.688 basis points. The one-month Hibor also rose for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.96554% [4][6]. ETF Market Activity - The market saw significant inflows into several ETFs, particularly in the financial sector, with notable net inflows into the China A500 ETF and various Hong Kong financial ETFs. The total net inflow for the week into the China A500 ETF was 78.32 billion yuan [20][22]. U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have increased, with several officials indicating support for a rate cut in July. The upcoming economic data for June and July will be crucial in determining the Fed's actions [11][12][16].

Group 1 - Global large investors are preparing for the traditional trading lull with unusual caution due to oil price volatility risks and potential tariff impacts, which could disrupt market complacency and lead to a repeat of last August's market crash [1] - As the July 9 deadline for US-EU tariff negotiations approaches, asset management firms are increasing portfolio protection, with a lack of consensus on baseline tax rates suggesting that blind optimism regarding trade risks may not last [1] - HSBC's Chief Investment Officer, Xavier Baraton, expressed concerns that the optimistic expectations priced into the market may fall short in the next three months, prompting strategies such as buying put options to hedge risks [1] Group 2 - The market's calm trading environment is partly attributed to the relationship between VIX and risk asset prices, influenced by automated trading funds that buy stocks when VIX declines and sell when it rises, which was a factor in last August's flash crash [2] - Royal London Asset Management's multi-asset head, Trevor Greetham, noted that while their automated systems are signaling stock purchases, fund managers have opted to sell some stocks to manage portfolio risk [2] - UBS's European equity strategy head, Gerry Fowler, indicated that options pricing suggests traders are betting on increased daily stock market volatility, warning that this summer may not be an ideal time for vacations due to various catalysts [3]

| CTE HERE | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 短期内,a股市场流动性尚可,加上地缘政治冲突大幅缓解,海外 | | | | | 扰动减弱,股指预计偏强震荡。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债) | | 资产需和弱经济利好债期。但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 空间。 | | | | | 市场风险偏好改善,金价短期或承压;但地缘和关税等不确定性 | | | | 農汤 | 仍高企,金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | | | 白银 | 震荡 | 银价短期震荡为主。 | | | 37 | | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论。再出口窗口打开情况下,铜 库存有望进一步下滑，铜价短期震荡偏强运行。 | | | | | 近期国内电解铝库存水平偏低,而下游需求进入淡季,铝价震荡 | | | | 農汤 | 运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝现货价格持续回调,但盘面价格更弱,期货维持贴水,限 | | | 氢化铝 | 黑汤 | 制下方空间。另一方面,冶炼端(现货)利润尚可,产量提升, | | | | ...

午盘中证1000里9只涨停股，中证2000里28只涨停股，放量上攻的更是一大堆，因此比三大宽基指数走的都要强，分别收涨0.47%和0.72%。 小盘指数给力，对应的指增产品也获得大额资金流入。数据显示，1000ETF增强（159680）今天上午获得一笔300万的大额申购，近两个交易日共计获得 2243万的净流入。 2000增强也是，比较热门的中证2000增强ETF（159552）年内份额一直在稳步增长。 此外，数据还显示，从今年年初至6月25日，1000ETF增强（159680）和中证2000增强ETF（159552）分别跑赢标的指数7.36%、13.41%，超额收益都很优 秀。 这背后的动力，源自三重引擎的推动： 01 流动性与政策的双轮驱动 宽松货币政策如同小微盘的"加速器"。年内多次降准降息后，市场流动性持续充裕，对利率敏感的小微企业率先受益。 政策端更是送来东风，并购重组新规为众多专精特新企业打开成长空间，而密集出台的AI、机器人、军工、半导体、医药等产业政策，也恰好覆盖了中证 1000/2000指数中绝大部分成分股。 02 增强策略的收益"炼金术" 最好主仓搭配一下红利或银行平衡风险，体验感会更好。 ...

金十数据6月26日讯，衡量离岸人民币流动性的关键指标--离岸人民币香港银行同业拆息周四显示：主 要期限利率多数续升；其中一周期Hibor小升至1.87606%，两周期Hibor升至1.87606%，均创4月11日以 来高点。另外香港金管局(HKMA)200亿元人民币的日间回购协议流动性已被调用近八成。隔夜Hibor则 回落2个基点至1.84076%，一年期Hibor小涨至1.98455%。点击链接查看历史数据>> 相关链接 美元/离岸人民币 离岸人民币同业拆息利率多数续升 HKMA日间回购协议流动性被用近八成 ...

文字早评 2025/06/26 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+1.04%，创指+3.11%，科创 50+1.73%，北证 50+1.38%，上证 50+1.17%，沪深 300+1.44%， 中证 500+1.68%，中证 1000+1.32%，中证 2000+1.00%，万得微盘+0.53%。两市合计成交 16027 亿，较上 一日+1882 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、央行开展 3000 亿元 MLF 操作，6 月中期流动性净投放总额已达 3180 亿元，实现连续四个月超额续作 MLF。 2、央行等六部门发布 19 项举措：支持增强居民消费能力、支持提高消费供应效率、加强基础金融服务。 3、国泰君安国际获批升级牌照，成为香港首家可提供全面虚拟资产服务的中资券商，支持加密货币交 易等业务。 资金面：融资额+51.30 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.10bp 至 1.371%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率+1.30bp 至 2.8746%，十年期国债利率+0.40bp 至 1.6507%，信用利差+0.90bp 至 123bp；美国 10 年期利率-4.00bp 至 4.30% ...

贵金属日报 2025-06-26 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.52 %，报 774.02 元/克，沪银涨 1.29 %，报 8761.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.22 %， 报 3350.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.45 %，报 36.28 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.29%，美元指数报 97.53 ； 市场展望： 当前市场对于联储宽松货币政策的预期进一步上升，同时美元流动性将得益于银行监管法案的 变动而有所提升，上述因素对于白银价格形成较为明确的利多因素。 今日，美联储公布了一项放宽美国大型银行资本规则的提案，此举旨在提升这些银行在美国资 本市场中充当美债中介的能力。美国国债在过去一年中多次令美元流动性受到冲击，放宽大型 银行的资本金要求将对美元流动性形成一定保障，有利于贵金属这一大类资产的价格平稳运 行。 鲍威尔昨日继续在国会参与听证，他对于降息的表态依然谨慎，鲍威尔认为目前美国经济形势 存在高度不确定性，他希望 ...

环球市场动态 预 计 常 规 流 动 性 工 具 将 维 持 净 投 放 股 票 周三中国市场继续上涨，大金融股 领涨大市，证券、保险纷纷得到政 策支持；欧股周三收跌，市场谨慎 观望以色列伊朗脆弱的停火协议状 况；美股在记录高位附近遭遇阻力， 但英伟达 (NVDA US) 仍创新高重 回市值第一，金龙中国指数下跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普淡化近期放松对伊朗制裁的 可能性，美国原油库存连续第五周 下降，周三国际油价反弹近 1%；投 资者权衡中东局势和鲍威尔暗示将 谨慎行动，国际金价微涨。 固 定 收 益 周三美国国债交投清淡，收益率曲 线趋陡，盘中在区间内波动。美联 储公布银行资本金规则修订草案。 5 年期美债拍卖中标利率略高于发 行前交易水平。亚洲债市交投活跃， 日本债市较坚挺；中国投资级债券 交投清淡，利差轻微走阔。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 26 日 123 个 股 要 闻 ▪ 6 月 24 日，央行发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，6 月 25 日，中国人民银行将以 固定数 ...