2 月 2 日上证指数报收 4016 点，跌幅 2.48%，深证成指报收 13824 点，跌幅 2.69%，中小板指报收 8344 点， 跌幅 2.37%。创业板指报收 3264 点，跌幅 2.46%。有色、钢铁、化工等跌幅居前。 评论： 从上周五 1 月 30 日至本周一 2 月 2 日，AH 两地市场均出现了较明显的调整，上证指数两日累计最大跌幅 3.8%，恒生指数累计最大跌 5.0%。对于本轮市场下跌，部分投资者将之归咎于美联储的宽松预期变化，以 及商品市场大幅波动带来的连锁反应，背后主要是因为 1 月 30 日美联储前理事凯文·沃什被提名为下任 美联储主席，而其在货币政策上的取向以鹰派著称。 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 市场调整的原因及性质 策略研究·策略快评 | 证券分析师： | 吴信坤 | 021-61761046 | wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525120001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 余培仪 | 021-61761040 | yupeiyi@guosen.com.cn | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The January USDA report was bearish, causing a sharp decline in US corn prices. The report raised the corn production forecast to 17.021 billion bushels, reaching a record high. US corn yield was 186.5 bushels per acre, with increased area and high yield, leading to a 5% drop in US corn prices. Concerns about rising global supply continued to ferment, and the US corn quarterly inventory reached an all - time high [3]. - In the domestic market, as the Lunar New Year approached in January, the sales progress of damp corn in the production areas increased, causing the futures prices of near - month corn contracts to decline, and the far - month contracts also adjusted accordingly. As of January 29, the national weekly average corn price was 2,332 yuan/ton [4]. - The corn starch industry has been in continuous losses, with industry profits hovering around the break - even point, and the starch futures prices have been oscillating downward [10]. - After the New Year's Day, the pig price declined, and pig farming shifted from profit to loss. Pig - listed enterprises actively sold their pigs before the Spring Festival [12]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 0.1 - 0.7 Review - Wheat main - producing countries' production increased from a decrease. Sufficient global inventory overshadowed the market, and the expectation of a bumper wheat harvest in Argentina was continuously strengthened. The wheat price was at a 5 - year low. Factors affecting the wheat market in 2026 include the Fed's monetary policy, tariff policies and trade disputes, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation, the weather in wheat main - producing countries, and Russia's wheat production capacity and exports [5][6]. - The January USDA report was bearish for US corn. The carry - over inventory of US corn in the new year increased significantly, and the corn price fell to a 4 - month low and then oscillated upward. The US corn stock - to - use ratio increased, and the annual quote was at a low level. Factors affecting the US corn market in 2026 include the Fed's monetary policy, tariff policies and trade disputes, the weather in corn main - producing countries, and the US grain export sales situation [7]. - For DCE corn, the policy shifted from bullish to bearish. Near - month contracts first rose and then fell. Factors affecting the DCE corn market in 2026 include the impact of the macro - market and monetary policy on commodities, the corn production and sales patterns in main - producing countries such as the US and China, the role of China's import - restriction policy, the impact of the imported corn auction policy, and pig prices and feed deep - processing consumption [8]. - The corn starch industry has been in continuous losses at the beginning of the year, and the starch futures prices have been adjusted at a high level. Factors affecting the DCE corn starch market in 2026 include the impact of the macro - market and monetary policy on commodities, the impact of corn raw materials on starch quotes, the disturbance of starch by - product sales on starch quotes, and pig prices and feed deep - processing consumption [10]. - After the New Year's Day, the pig price declined, and the forward quote fell to a previous low. Factors affecting the DCE live pig market in 2026 include the impact of the macro - market and monetary policy on commodities, the impact of breeding losses on the industry scale, the impact of improved breeding efficiency on costs, and the impact of raw material price changes such as soybean meal and corn on pig prices [11]. - In 2025/2026, the wheat production in global main - producing countries recovered and increased. China's wheat inventory decreased, while the inventories of other main - producing countries increased. The global wheat production increase was greater than the consumption increase, and the carry - over inventory increased significantly. The wheat market in 2026 will continue to focus on geopolitics [13]. - The corn production in global main - producing countries increased. The inventories in South America and the EU decreased, and the carry - over inventory of new - season US corn increased significantly. The US corn production increased substantially, and the industry expects the soybean area to increase and the corn area to decrease in 2026 [14]. 1.0 - 1.10 Supply and Demand - After the USDA report, US corn led the decline, and wheat followed. The January report was bearish, and corn prices fell 5% on the report day. The low - price advantage of the US grain market gradually emerged, and the global grain supply was sufficient, with supply - side pressure continuing to affect the market [15][40]. - In 2025, the US corn area increased significantly, and the production reached a record high. Currently, the industry expects the soybean area to increase and the corn area to decrease in 2026 [21]. - In January, the USDA estimated the US corn yield to be 186.5 bushels per acre, and the US corn quarterly inventory reached an all - time high [27]. - In mid - January, bargain - hunting buyers entered the US corn market. Low - price corn promoted sales, and after the sales progress improved, the corn futures prices regained support [33]. - In 2025, China imported 2.65 million tons of corn from January to December. The monthly import volume of corn increased significantly from November to December. The industry expects that after the China - US talks, China's imports of grains from the US will resume and increase. In the second half of 2025, to stabilize corn prices, the China National Grain Reserves Corporation issued an announcement on the competitive sales of imported corn, increasing market supply. The 2024/2025 annual imports of substitutes such as sorghum, corn, and barley in China totaled about 20 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of nearly 40 million tons. In 2025/2026, China - US negotiations are expected to increase the imports of corn and sorghum, and the current industry generally expects the year - on - year increase in corn imports to be between 5 - 10 million tons, and the peak of the total increase in imports of substitutes such as sorghum, corn, and barley is expected to be 20 million tons [43]. - At the end of January, the wheat price in the main production areas was 2,525 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous month and 5.38% year - on - year. After the New Year's Day, a total of 800,000 tons of competitive wheat was put on the market, and 565,300 tons were traded. The wheat market was supported by multiple factors and showed a slightly strong and oscillating trend [45]. - Currently, the corn starch operating rate is 59.99%. After the starch price increased, the enterprise order - signing slowed down. The expected profit of starch processing in Shandong is 12 yuan/ton. The corn starch price remained firm, and the low - price supply tightened [47][49]. - At the end of January, the national corn sales progress was 60%. The March contract first rose and then fell, and the long - position funds left the market, causing the futures price to oscillate at a high level [54]. - The port inventory has been at a low level. As of January 23, the inventory in the northern ports was 3.097 million tons lower year - on - year, and the inventory data was bullish [62]. 2.1 - 2.4 Outlook - In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the China - US procurement plan. It is expected that the procurement scale of agricultural products such as sorghum and corn will resume and increase in 2026 [70]. - The main corn 2603 contract first rose and then fell. Before the Spring Festival, long - position funds left the market, and the far - month contract futures prices entered a tug - of - war stage [72]. - The average inventory of feed enterprises is 31.93 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.21%. The downstream stocking before the Spring Festival drove the futures and spot prices to rebound [75]. - The corn futures prices are in a positive arrangement. After the March contract hit the 2,300 mark, it fell back. The corn market faces a directional choice around the Spring Festival. The short - term trend is that funds will shift from the March contract to the May and July contracts, and the far - month contracts face a directional choice. In the long term, the expectation of a bumper harvest, combined with increased imports and substitutes, will cause the corn futures prices to return to the oscillating range, and downstream procurement will determine the direction. The recommended operation is to stop profit on accumulated options and then wait and see [82]. Policy - The industry expects that the China - US negotiations in 2026 will progress smoothly, and China will increase the imports of grains such as sorghum and corn while importing soybeans [83]. - The wheat minimum purchase price competitive trading had a 50% transaction rate in the first week, and 200,000 tons were sold again on January 14, with a market transaction rate of 80.49% [83]. - On January 7, the Inner Mongolia Branch of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation conducted a competitive sales. It put 95,400 tons on the market, with an average premium of 62 yuan/ton. The imported corn was sold at a premium, and the bullish sentiment was transmitted to the futures market [83]. - According to customs data, in December 2025, the import volume of corn (885811) starch was 180,733 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.94%. The import amount was 358,000 US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 21.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%. From January to December, the total import volume of corn (885811) starch was 5,248,226 tons, a year - on - year increase of 97.28%, and the total import amount was 6.5695 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. In December 2025, the export volume of corn (885811) starch was 16,739,626 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% and a year - on - year increase of 75.60%. The export amount was 6.4769 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.23%. From January to December, the total export volume of corn (885811) starch was 213,444,099 tons, a year - on - year increase of 967.96%, and the total export amount was 81.7879 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 797.93% [83]. - After the New Year's Day, a total of 800,000 tons of competitive wheat was put on the market (200,000 tons per week for four weeks), and 565,300 tons were traded. The transaction rates of the four times were 50%, 80.49%, 71.64%, and 77.55% respectively [83].

在已参与投资的群体中，收益情况呈现分化：19%表示"盈利丰厚"，22%为"小幅盈利"，32%"基本持 平"，另有26%已经"亏损"。 据小调查显示，截至目前，共有人8974人参与，揭示了当前投资者对贵金属市场的态度与操作倾向。 超四成认为牛市已结束 对于本轮黄金白银牛市是否终结的问题，42%的受访者认为"已结束，牛市见顶"，33%认为"未结束，短 期调整后将继续上涨"，25%表示"不确定，需观察后续国际形势与政策信号"。 多数人未直接参与投资 尽管市场关注度高，但65%的受访者表示"未参与，仅保持关注"，直接参与黄金白银投资的占28%，投 资其他贵金属的占7%。说明多数人仍处于观望状态，并未急于入场。 凤凰网财经讯 2月2日，近期黄金、白银等贵金属价格剧烈震荡，市场情绪分歧明显。截至发稿，现货 黄金跌3.41%，报4691.39美元盎司，现货白银跌4.67%，报80.49美元/盎司。 收益表现分化，亏损者占比不低 观望成主流操作策略 面对当前的高波动市场，41%的受访者选择"观望为主，等待趋势明朗"，占比最高；28%考虑"减仓或离 场"；26%计划"逢低分批买入，长期持有"；仅5%倾向"短线波段操作"。 地缘 ...

库存方面，当前铝库存水平高于近两年同期，持续累库对铝价上行形成了一定的压制。虽然目前库存水 平仍难形成明显压力，但就像一颗"定时炸弹"，随时可能对铝价产生更大的冲击。 短期"风雨飘摇"，中长期"曙光初现"？ "忽如一夜春风来，千树万树梨花开"，本应是充满生机与希望的时节，铝市却遭遇了一场"暴风雪"。 2026年2月2日，长江有色金属网数据显示，长江现货A00铝锭价格暴跌，单日大跌960元/吨至23700元/ 吨；沪期铝更是直接封停9.01%，报收于23035元/吨，宛如一颗重磅炸弹，在铝市场掀起了惊涛骇浪。 与此同时，国际市场也未能幸免，伦铝震荡触底，LME三个月北京时间15：20报于3024.5美元/吨，跌 109.5美元/吨，跌幅达3.49%。这突如其来的暴跌，究竟是何原因所致？未来铝价又将何去何从？ 宏观"风暴"来袭，铝价"摇摇欲坠" 本轮铝价跌停，海外宏观消息的冲击与资金的抛售成为了"罪魁祸首"。当地时间1月30日，美国总统特 朗普提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接替即将在5月任期结束的杰罗姆·鲍威尔，出任下一任美联储主 席。这一消息犹如一颗投入平静湖面的石子，瞬间打破了市场的平静。 此前，市 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月02日16时12分 报告导读： 今日贵金属几乎全线跌停，沪金主力收跌15.73%，沪银主力收跌17%，铂金主力收跌16%，钯金主力收涨跌16%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和，中长期仍存；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期渐近 尾声，缩表预期重创贵金属。②避险属性方面，前期围绕格陵兰岛资源争端及北美贸易关税摩擦的地缘紧张局势在近日出现缓和迹 象。最新特朗普称俄对乌部分地区停火一周，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和。③货币属性方面，特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接 替鲍威尔，新提名引爆鹰派预期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度，贵金属遭遇史诗级抛售。美国12月PPI创五个月来 最大环比涨幅，意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下 次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢 能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震 ...

免责声明 铝类产业日报 2026/2/2 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23,035.00 | -1525.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,772.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -1,335.00 | -1395.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -162.00 | -4.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 238,005.00 | -46894.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 375,783.00 | -67133.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) ...

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate continues to rise, trading around 1.3660, supported by a combination of factors including a decline in oil prices and a stronger USD [2] - The Canadian dollar's performance is closely linked to oil prices, as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, making its economy and currency sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices [2] - Recent declines in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, which have fallen over 5% in the last four trading days to around $62.00 per barrel, have weakened the support for the Canadian dollar, facilitating the rise of the USD/CAD exchange rate [2] Group 2 - Uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and recent statements have bolstered the USD, with the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair raising expectations for a potential shift towards a more cautious monetary policy [3] - Fed officials have indicated a preference for maintaining current interest rates, with St. Louis Fed President Alberto M. stating that the 3.50%-3.75% policy rate range is neutral, balancing economic growth and inflation pressures [3] - Progress in US fiscal policy, including an agreement in the Senate on government funding, has alleviated risks of a government shutdown, improving market sentiment and further supporting the USD [3]

•投资者们正等待美国非农就业数据，以获取有关美联储货币政策前景的新线索。 【华通白银网2月2日讯】•在上周五暴跌之后，白银难以重新获得上涨动力。 •由于凯文·沃什被提名为新任美联储主席以及获利了结，白银价格遭遇暴跌。 周五，美元吸引了大量买盘。此前，白宫提名前美联储主席凯文·沃什为现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的继任者。市场专家认为，沃什的当选不 会削弱美联储的独立性，这一点此前一直备受期待。此前，美国总统特朗普曾多次表示，新美联储主席将带来更多的降息举措。 美联储新任主席凯文·沃什素以支持强势美元著称，其在美联储任职期间的政策倾向意味着未来货币政策环境可能继续保持紧缩。 本周，投资者将重点关注美国1月份的非农就业数据（NFP），该数据将影响市场对美联储货币政策前景的预期。 白银价格目前在50日EMA上方，若出现回调，将在该动态支撑位附近获得初步买盘承接。相对强弱指标（RSI）低于50水平线，短期内 压制上行空间；若反弹突破该分界线则将增强上涨动能。若动量趋于稳定，多头或有望延续修复行情；反之，若未能实现重新加速，银 价将继续维持区间震荡。 白银本周亚洲交易时段谨慎交投于80美元附近，略高于上周五触及的四周新低73. ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant decline in gold prices, attributed to the market's reaction to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, which eased concerns about potential inflation risks and led to a market adjustment [2][3] - Gold prices experienced a sharp drop, with London gold falling from a recent high of 5600 USD to 4700 USD, marking a 16% decline, primarily due to the market's interpretation of Warsh's "hawkish" stance [3] - The market is currently in a wide-ranging fluctuation phase, with key support levels identified at 4585 and 4535, which are critical for short-term trading strategies [4] Group 2 - The nomination of Warsh is seen as a signal that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious monetary policy to address potential inflation pressures, prompting investors to reassess asset risks and returns [2] - The extreme volatility in the gold market is expected to continue, driven by a temporary balance of bullish and bearish forces, with market sentiment playing a crucial role in short-term price movements [4] - Analysts suggest a trading strategy of "high short, low long" in response to the current market conditions, focusing on resistance levels at 4780 and 4710 for potential short positions, while considering support levels at 4585 and 4535 for long positions [4]

黄金、白银和全球股市周一延续暴跌，1月表现最强劲的资产遭遇密集抛售，周五市场剧烈逆转后的恐慌情绪持续蔓延。这场涵盖贵金属、科技股 和加密货币的全面抛售，正在考验投资者对此前持续上涨行情的信心。 市场波动的直接导火索是贵金属的剧烈波动和科技股估值担忧。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，该公司对OpenAI提议的1000亿美元投资"从未是 承诺"，这一表态加剧了市场对AI投资热潮可持续性的质疑。与此同时，特朗普上周五提名沃什为下任美联储主席，引发投资者重新评估货币政 策预期。 黄金周一现货黄金跌破4550美元/盎司，为1月16日以来首次，较日高回落超330美元。现货白银失守74美元/盎司，日内跌幅13.01%。亚洲股市录 得自4月初以来最严重的两日跌幅，欧股和美股期货显示进一步下跌。 AT Global Markets首席市场分析师Nick Twidale表示："金属市场的巨大波动是真正的催化剂。当我们看到这种历史性波动时，投资者信心不仅对 黄金，而且对整个市场都大幅下降。" 科技股估值担忧引发抛售潮 科技股在AI投资前景不确定性加剧的背景下遭遇重创。MSCI亚洲科技指数创下自11月以来最大跌幅，韩国Kospi指数作为 ...