行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 24 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in European defense spending presents new growth opportunities for Thales, leading to an upward revision of its sales growth forecast for 2025 from 5%-6% to 6%-7% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Thales reported a 12.7% year-on-year increase in adjusted operating profit to €1.25 billion, slightly above market expectations, driven by the aerospace and defense sectors [1] - The company's sales for the first half of the year grew by 8.1% year-on-year to €10.27 billion [1] - Thales expects its revenue for the year to exceed new orders, with an adjusted operating profit margin projected to reach 12.2%-12.4% [1] Group 2: Impact of European Military Spending - The increase in military spending in Europe, particularly following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has significantly boosted Thales's stock price, which has risen approximately 78% this year [2] - French President Macron has committed to doubling defense spending by 2027, three years earlier than the original target of 2030, which is expected to support Thales's business growth momentum [4][5] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Considerations - Thales's CFO, Pascal Bouchiat, indicated that the impact of potential U.S. tariffs on the company's operations would be limited, estimating a "tens of millions of euros" impact if a 10% reciprocal tariff is implemented [1] - The company benefits from a diversified domestic structure that mitigates cross-border trade flow risks, with most revenue coming from defense activities exempt from such tariffs [6] - Thales has flexible production capabilities, allowing it to shift operations, such as moving card production from Mexico to Singapore, to adapt to changing tariff conditions [6]

经过长达数月的多轮艰难谈判，日本和美国终于就关税问题达成一致意见。 当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，已与日本就关税谈判达成协议，对日本的对等关税为15%，而日本 将向美国投资5500亿美元，"美方将获得其中90%的利润"。特朗普还表示，日本承诺将开放大米、汽车等市场。 特朗普政府原计划自8月1日起对来自日本的进口商品征收25%的对等关税，而今降至15%，在目前美国公布的对等关税新 税率中属最低水平。日本政府相关人士透露，汽车方面，美国将对自日本进口的汽车加征12.5%的关税，加上此前2.5%的基础 关税税率，合计为15%。汽车零部件关税同样调整为15%。钢铁、铝的关税则维持现行的50%。消息公布后，日本汽车股应声大 涨。 汽车关税一直是日美关税问题谈判的焦点。日本是美国主要贸易伙伴之一，两国因贸易逆差、汇率和汽车市场准入等存在 贸易摩擦。尤其是汽车，美国是日本汽车出口第一大市场。日本汽车工业协会的数据显示，2024年日本对美国出口汽车约137万 辆，占到总出口量的三成以上。同时，日本汽车在美销售也很可观，据调研公司MarkLines的数据，2024年美国汽车销量约为 1600万辆，其中丰田 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-23 美联储独⽴性、关税担忧升温，⾦价冲 ⾼ 美联储独⽴性及关税担忧共振推动贵⾦属上⾏。 重点资讯： 1）美国财政部长贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 周一表示，特朗 普政府更关心贸易协议的质量，而不是其时机。8 月 1 日 是各国与美国达成贸易协议的最后期限，否则将面临高额关 税。 2）中国6月银行结售汇连续两个月录得顺差，顺差规模并扩 大至254亿美元创九个月来最高，这主要得益于货物贸易结 售汇和证券投资结售汇顺差的双双支撑；近期中美贸易战维 持休战状态，中国外贸延续较好表现，有利于结售汇保持均 衡。 3）欧盟外交官表示，随着与华盛顿达成可接受的贸易协议 的前景日渐渺茫，欧盟正在探索对美国采取更广泛的反制措 施。 4）美国总统特朗普和中国方面讨论了今年晚些时候特朗普 访问亚洲期间两国元首可能举行会晤的事宜。 5）美国财长贝森特：没有任何迹象表明鲍威尔现在应该辞 职。如果他想提前离职，则应该这样做。 价格逻辑： 黄金价格在周二晚间突破3400美元/盎司，白银突破前高39. 06美元/盎司。贵金属突破主要归因于美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan and the United States have reached an agreement on tariffs, with the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese goods and increasing rice imports from the U.S. [1] Group 1: Tariff Agreement - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, which includes a 12.5% tariff on automobiles, combining with a previous 2.5% tariff for a total of 15% [1] - The steel and aluminum tariffs will remain at the current rate of 50% [1] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - Japan and the U.S. have agreed to enhance supply chain cooperation and economic security through investments by Japanese companies in sectors such as semiconductors, steel, shipbuilding, energy, and automobiles [1] - Japan will increase the proportion of U.S. rice imports under its current minimum access system, ensuring that this will not harm Japanese agriculture [1] Group 3: Trade Relations Context - Japan is a major trading partner of the U.S., and previous trade tensions have arisen over trade deficits, exchange rates, and automobile market access [1] - The recent agreement follows a letter from former President Trump announcing a significant increase in tariffs on nearly all Japanese goods starting August 1 [1]

前言 7月21日，美国财长贝森特在一档电视节目中公开喊话，要求中方在即将到来的第三轮中美谈判中答应两件事，否则将面临高达100%的二级关税。 除此之外，贝森特还对欧盟各国施压，要求他们跟随美国一起行动，但换来的却是这些盟友无声的沉默。 那么贝森特要求的这两件事是什么？中方又是如何应对的？ 整个谈判的气氛是积极友好的，双方都希望通过合作来缓解贸易摩擦，为全球经济复苏贡献力量。 这些谈判不仅有助于推动中美关系的稳定，也对全球经济的稳定与发展起到了积极作用，即使双方存在不少分歧，双方也一直致力于通过平等、互利的方式 解决问题。 但现在贝森特的突然发难，无疑是在破坏这种谈判的良好气氛，他在谈判中将一个完全与双边贸易无关的问题——石油进口，提出作为中美谈判的前提条 件，这不仅让人觉得不合时宜，更像是一种不合理的干涉。 俄罗斯和伊朗作为主权国家，他们和中国之间的石油贸易是基于平等互利、相互尊重的原则进行的，完全符合国际法和国际准则，美国没有权利要求中国在 没有任何依据的情况下放弃这种正常的贸易往来。 贝森特的要求 7月21日，美国财政部长贝森特在一档电视节目中提出了两个让人难以理解的要求：要求中国在即将举行的第三轮中美谈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively reshaping global trade rules by imposing significant tariffs on allies and restricting trade with China, which has led to a notable decline in trade volumes between the U.S. and China [1][3]. Trade Impact - U.S. tariffs have resulted in a 20.8% year-on-year decline in trade between the U.S. and China in the second quarter, reversing the growth seen in the first quarter [3]. - In the first half of the year, the total trade value between China and the U.S. was 2.08 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.3% compared to the previous year [1]. Trade Recovery Signs - June data showed a recovery in trade, with imports and exports between China and the U.S. exceeding 350 billion yuan, a significant increase from May's figures [3]. - The recovery is attributed to a temporary agreement reached in May, which paused tariff increases for 90 days, leading to increased imports from China as U.S. importers stockpiled goods [3]. China's Trade Resilience - Despite U.S. pressures, China's total goods trade in the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.2% [3][5]. - China has diversified its trade partnerships, with significant growth in trade with ASEAN (9.6% increase) and Africa (14.4% increase) [5]. U.S. Domestic Policy Disputes - There are increasing divisions within the U.S. regarding tariff policies, with some officials advocating for a more cautious approach to avoid negative economic consequences [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is reflected in the internal conflicts within the Trump administration regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership [5]. Future Trade Negotiations - As the deadline for the tariff pause approaches, there is speculation about the potential for further negotiations between the U.S. and China, with both sides showing a willingness to avoid escalating tensions [8][10]. - China's recent trade agreements and zero-tariff policies for least developed countries are seen as efforts to stabilize its trade amidst external pressures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The industry is expected to see continuous improvement in its prosperity due to the gradual implementation of counter-cyclical fiscal policies and a cyclical upswing in the industry, with excavator domestic sales growth likely to continue rising. Although exports face certain trade friction risks, most major engineering machinery manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, making the risks manageable. Overall, opportunities outweigh risks in 2025 [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In June 2025, domestic excavator sales reached 8,136 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.20%, while total excavator sales were 18,804 units, up 13.3% year-on-year. Exports accounted for 10,668 units, reflecting a 19.3% increase [2]. - For the first half of 2025, total excavator sales were 120,520 units, a 16.8% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 65,637 units, up 22.9%, and exports at 54,883 units, up 10.2% [2]. - The average monthly working hours for major engineering machinery in June 2025 were 77.2 hours, down 9.11% year-on-year, with excavators averaging 64.2 hours [2]. - The monthly operating rate for major engineering machinery in June 2025 was 56.9%, a decrease of 7.55 percentage points year-on-year, with excavators at 58.2% [2]. Group 2: Trade Risks - Most Chinese engineering machinery manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, with XCMG's U.S. market revenue accounting for less than 1% of total revenue, and Zoomlion's around 1%. Hengli Hydraulic's export revenue to the U.S. is approximately 5% of total revenue, indicating that overall risks are manageable [3].

金十数据7月21日讯，欧洲央行周一公布的调查显示，欧元区企业虽对增长前景保持乐观，但盈利普遍 承压，部分归因于贸易紧张局势。尽管期待已久的经济复苏尚未实现，导致欧元区近年增长乏力，但企 业对未来好转的信心使就业水平维持高位。欧洲央行《企业融资渠道季度调查》显示，8%的企业报告 过去三个月营业额增长，23%对下一季度发展持乐观态度。然而企业盈利持续恶化，中小企业受影响面 尤为广泛。"多数企业表示在一定程度上受到贸易摩擦冲击，其中对美出口企业和制造业企业受影响最 深，"欧洲央行补充称。约30%企业担忧供应链延迟或短缺问题，并表示需寻找替代供应商。尽管长期 通胀预期维持不变，企业已将未来一年的价格增长预期从2.9%下调至2.5%。 欧洲央行调查：企业信心犹存但盈利恶化 贸易摩擦影响显现 ...

Group 1 - Investors are closely monitoring economic reports this week as they prepare for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision meeting on Thursday, which will be crucial for assessing the direction of monetary policy amid trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1] - The data released this week is unlikely to alter the ECB's decision to pause interest rate cuts for the first time in a year, but it will provide clues on whether further cuts are needed, either in September or later [1] - Goldman Sachs' chief economist for Europe, Jari Stein, noted that while the data itself may not decide on rate cuts, signs of economic slowdown would strengthen the case for further easing [4] Group 2 - The quarterly bank lending survey released on Tuesday is particularly significant as it reflects the impact of interest rate adjustments following Trump's tax policy announcement in April [4] - HSBC economist Fabio Balboni believes the survey will reveal how tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties affect policy transmission, with improvements in credit conditions under external pressures reinforcing the notion of "credit easing" [6] - Bloomberg's economic forecast suggests that the ECB is in a wait-and-see mode, with potential rate cuts expected in September and December, while the policy statement after the July 24 meeting is likely to remain consistent with June's, allowing for rate cuts without making commitments [6] Group 3 - There are differing views among ECB council members regarding the economic outlook, with some warning of growth obstacles and low inflation, while others emphasize the resilience of businesses and households [6] - The first quarter's economic performance exceeded expectations, but the ECB's vice president predicts stagnation in growth for the second and third quarters [6] - The key issue is whether public spending in Germany and other parts of Europe can offset the impacts of tariff uncertainties and euro appreciation on competitiveness [9]