Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a narrow upward fluctuation, trading around $3385.95 per ounce, following a 0.56% increase on June 4, closing at $3372.18 per ounce [2] - The decline in the US dollar index by 0.5% to 98.80 and the drop in the 10-year US Treasury yield from 4.629% to 4.365% have made gold more attractive to investors, supporting the price increase [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a high-level consolidation phase, with key support levels at $3355-58 and resistance at $3410-3420, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [5][3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are under pressure, currently trading at $62.75 per barrel, influenced by rising gasoline and distillate inventories in the US, indicating weak demand [6] - The market is facing dual pressures from OPEC+ production increases and rising US inventories, leading to concerns about the recovery of global consumption [6] - Technical analysis suggests a downward trend for oil prices, with expectations of testing lower levels around $50 after a period of consolidation [7]

【铜】 周四沪铜主力震荡收阳在7.8万上方，今日现铜微调到78415元,上海铜升水缩窄到90元,广东铜贴水15元。周 内SMM社库减少4200吨至14.88万吨。隔夜美国ADP就业与服务业PMI液软，但联储本月降息概率低，晚间关注ECB 利率动作与美国4月贸易账。反弹空配或主动换月。 【铝&氧化铝】 | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 工业培 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 多晶硅 | なな女 な女女 | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | ...

宏观方面，美国特朗普政府宣布提高钢铝关税至 50%，引发欧盟反制担忧，全球贸 易不确定性加剧，铝价短期承压。国内 5 月制造业 PMI 回升，出口指标改善，部分对 冲海外利空，限制铝价跌幅。 供需方面，国内电解铝运行产能达 4,319 万吨，接近 4,500 万吨政策天花板，西 南丰水期少量复产，但整体弹性不足。国网订单拉动铝线缆开工率高位，支撑短期刚 需。但光伏板块因抢装潮结束，型材订单明显下滑，汽车用铝预计 6 月中下旬走弱， 建筑地产用铝维持低迷。 技术方面，沪铝主力合约 2507 日内实体中阴线跌破均线系统，MACD 指标死叉。 BOLL 跌穿中轨，资金小幅减仓，日内空头力量偏强。 短期来看，宏观上受关税贸易摩擦压制影响，对铝价带来情绪上的利空驱动。若 需求端淡季表现过于疲软，价格或许继续向下试探。考虑到低库存以及出口抢运对价 格的支撑作用，预计铝价继续维持区间震荡运行。 撰写品种：沪铝 撰写时间:2025/06/03 回顾周期：日度 研究员： 曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪铝日度报告 2025 年 6 月 3 日，沪铝主力合约价格下跌走势，成交量相比较上个交易日放量。 al2507 持仓量 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 二人八人 / / 07/0 00/0 / 0 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/6/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 를 | 现值 | 2073 | 1118 | 5172 | 1718 | 6243 | 1587 | | | 前值 | 1586 | 1107 | 3275 | 1720 | 4284 | 1317 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 30.68% | 0.92% | 57.92% | -0.12% | 45.73% | 20.50% | | 블 | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which has sparked strong opposition from trade partners [1][3] - The new tariffs are expected to significantly raise domestic prices, particularly affecting the automotive industry, where steel constitutes about 60% of a vehicle's weight, potentially increasing car prices by $2,000 to $4,000 [1][3] - The increase in tariffs may also impact prices of consumer goods such as beverages in aluminum cans and major home appliances like refrigerators and washing machines [1] Group 2 - The new tariff policy has already shown negative effects on global trade, with Germany's mechanical engineering sector reporting a 6% year-on-year decline in new orders due to U.S. tariff policies and uncertainty [3] - The chief economist of the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association has indicated that the new tariffs have severely impacted global markets, leading to a decline in corporate investment sentiment [3] - The global trade landscape is facing significant challenges as the implications of the U.S. steel and aluminum tariff increase unfold, raising concerns about how countries will respond [3]

供需双压致油价走低：美国汽油库存暴增520万桶，欧佩克计划持续增产，沙特降价争夺市场份额，叠 加贸易摩擦抑制需求预期，国际油价承压下行。邓正红软实力表示，美国数据显示汽油和柴油库存出人 意料地大幅增加，欧佩克联盟增产导致供需平衡趋松，且关税紧张局势引发的全球经济前景担忧持续发 酵，供需两端挤压石油软实力，周三（6月4日）国际油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克 萨斯轻质原油7月期货结算价每桶跌0.56美元至62.85美元，跌幅0.88%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油8月 期货结算价每桶跌0.77美元至64.86美元，跌幅1.17%。美国能源信息署（EIA）称，上周美国汽油库存 增加520 万桶，馏分油库存增加 420 万桶。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克联盟在未来几个月继续加 速石油增产，因为沙特更加重视夺回失去的市场份额。 宏观风险压制软实力扩张空间，贸易摩擦抑制需求预期。尽管美中计划元首通话，但特朗普政府持续指 责中国"违反协议"，叠加OECD下调全球增长预期，关税紧张局势持续发酵。贸易不确定性直接抑制原 油需求前景，加剧投资者对经济衰退的担忧。地缘政治博弈的复杂影响。伊朗宣布实现完整核燃料循 环，哈 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月05日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价回落，布伦特08合约跌1.07%。有消息显示沙特希望OPEC+在8月、9月仍以41.1万桶/ 天的速度增产,并将7月销往亚洲的轻质原油官价升贴水下调20每分/桶，其抢占市场份额的意图愈 发明显。此外，此前加拿大野火引发的供应中断已在周三部分恢复，上周EIA汽油和精炼油库存均超 预期增加暗示需求无法匹配炼厂供应的增加。此前我们谈到OPEC+抢占市场份额策略下的快速增产 行为令源自李节性及地缘犹动的供需偏紧难以持续,继续关注旺季预期、地缘抗动被充分交易后的 再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜黄金偏强震荡, 白银波动有限。美国5月ADP就业人数新增3.7万人大幅低于预期和前值,非制 造业PMI降至49.9为2024年6月以来的最低，关税背景下经济承压，聚焦周五非农指引。美联储方面 近期表态谨慎,特朗普再次催促降息。贵金属处于震荡局面,金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买 入思路。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜阳线震荡、形态稳固，伦铜加速去库，物流转向美国。美国ADP就业与服务业PMI疲软，但 联储本月降息概率低。国内 ...

招股书显示，公司部分产品已被美国加征关税，若未来贸易摩擦升级，可能对业绩造成重大冲击。2024年特朗普政府关税政策的不确定性进一步加剧了市 场对其外销稳定性的担忧。 （图源：招股说明书） 招股说明书显示，2021-2023年，思锐光学营业收入分别为 1.89亿元、 1.83亿元、2.62亿元，归属净利分别为1709.69万元、1888.3万元、3131.1万元。 尽管思锐光学2021-2023年营收从1.89亿元增至2.62亿元，扣非净利润从1,529.35万元提升至3,103.07万元，但2024年更新财务数据后出现"增收不增利"现 象，公司当年营业收入上涨30.08%的同时，扣非净利润仅为2,006.75万元，同比下滑35.33%。 北交所在首轮问询中重点聚焦公司2023年业绩高增长的合理性，要求量化分析外销收入的可持续性。其中，公司对主要客户影石创新的销售收入由2021年 的276.32万元骤增至2023年的2012.81万元，增速异常且占比显著提升，引发监管对其业务稳定性的担忧。 思锐光学产品主要销往美国、欧洲、日本、韩国等国家和地区。报告期各期，其境外销售收入分别为1.43亿元元、1.40亿元、1. ...

麦克勒姆直言："美国发起的贸易摩擦仍是加拿大经济面临的最大逆风。"他表示，自加央行4月中旬作 出维持政策利率的决定以来，美国政府不断增减各种关税。剧烈的金融动荡现有所缓和，但贸易谈判的 结果仍高度不确定，关税远高于今年年初水平，新的贸易行动还可能出现。最近美国进一步提高钢铝关 税，凸显了其贸易政策的不可预测性。 加央行认为，加拿大今年首季度国内生产总值(GDP)增长2.2%，略高于加央行预测，但GDP增长构成基 本符合预期。尽管消费者信心大幅下滑，消费仍保持增长。劳动力市场，尤其是贸易密集型行业呈现疲 态，失业率已升至6.9%。预计加拿大第二季度经济将大幅疲软。 在加联邦政府取消消费者碳税的背景下，加拿大4月份通胀率降至1.7%。但若扣除税收因素，通胀率上 涨2.3%，略高于加央行预期。核心通胀指标及其他潜在通胀指标均有所上升。 中新社多伦多6月4日电(记者余瑞冬)加拿大央行4日宣布，基于当前不确定性依然很高，决定维持基准 利率(即隔夜拆借利率)在2.75%不变。 加央行行长麦克勒姆在渥太华对媒体表示，加拿大经济有所疲软，但并未大幅减弱。近期通胀数据也呈 现出一定程度的坚挺。 加央行表示，将继续关注加拿大经济 ...

Domestic Market Performance - The stock market continued its upward momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rising by 0.42%, 0.43%, and 0.28% respectively, while the technology sector's gains were in line with the overall market [2] - The bond market saw a decline in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, which fell by 0.5 basis points and 0.6 basis points to 1.67% and 1.89% respectively [2] - The commodity market showed positive performance, particularly in coal, which rebounded by 7.19% due to production cuts and expectations of supply constraints [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations slightly exceeded expectations, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity, with a net withdrawal of only 6 billion yuan [3] - The current market consensus suggests that the bond market risks are low, but a significant change would require the central bank to restart bond purchases [4] - The probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases in June is estimated at 50%, influenced by the need to alleviate banks' liability pressures [4] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the total trading volume reaching 1.18 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [5] - The market is currently in a range-bound trading pattern, with the Wande All A Index fluctuating within a 2% range since May 7 [5] - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF has decreased from 18.21 at the end of April to 14.92, reflecting a lower expectation of future market volatility [5][7] Sector Performance - The small-cap stocks continue to perform well, with the CSI 2000 and Wande Micro Cap indices rising by 1.06% and 1.20% respectively, indicating strong interest in these segments [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are the main focus for capital allocation, with notable performances in areas such as AI and new consumption trends [6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.60% and 0.57%, with new consumption and biotechnology being the primary drivers [6]