美联储应该在7月份降息。 白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗：市场明白贸易信函是谈判。 ...

白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗：市场理解贸易信函是谈判的一部分。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank Negara Malaysia announced a 25 basis points cut in the overnight policy rate (OPR) from 3% to 2.75%, marking the first rate adjustment in two years and the first rate cut in five years [1] - The central bank highlighted that global economic growth continues, supported by consumer spending and some degree of consumer credit, despite uncertainties from global tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The Malaysian economy is expected to grow in the second quarter, driven by domestic demand and export growth, with supportive employment and wage growth in domestic-oriented sectors [3] Group 2 - Inflation rates in Malaysia for the first five months of the year averaged 1.4% for overall inflation and 1.9% for core inflation, with expectations for moderate inflation through 2025 [3] - The Malaysian Ringgit's performance will be primarily driven by external factors, with the central bank indicating that while the domestic economic foundation is strong, external uncertainties may impact growth prospects [4] - The Malaysian stock market saw a slight increase of 0.06% on a recent Wednesday, but has declined by 6.89% year-to-date, while the Ringgit has appreciated nearly 5% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, trading around $3302 per ounce, following a decline of over 1% on Tuesday, where it hit a low of $3287.06 per ounce, marking a one-week low [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors including optimistic trade negotiations, a strengthening dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the complexities of Trump's tariff policies [1][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could influence future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Recent optimistic signals from U.S. trade negotiations with major partners have reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - President Trump warned of tariffs on 14 countries but postponed the effective date to August 1, allowing for further negotiations, which has led to market expectations for more lenient trade policies [3] - Japan and South Korea are actively seeking to mitigate the impact of tariffs through negotiations, with Japan focusing on concessions in the automotive sector while protecting agricultural interests [3] Group 3 - The global financial market's reaction to Trump's tariff policies has been cautious, with mixed performances in major indices, indicating investor hesitation amid trade negotiations [4] - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected to continue due to optimistic trade sentiments, a strong dollar, and rising Treasury yields, while long-term uncertainties and inflation pressures may support gold [4] - Investors are advised to monitor developments in trade negotiations, monetary policy, and macroeconomic data to identify potential opportunities in gold prices [4]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have been under pressure, with spot gold trading around $3,292 after a drop of over 1% on Tuesday, reaching a low of $3,287.06 [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to optimistic trade negotiations, a stronger dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the complexities of Trump's tariff policies [1][3] - The market's expectation of easing trade tensions has reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to the price drop [1] - Trump's warning of tariffs on 14 countries, followed by a delay in implementation, has created a buffer for negotiations, leading to a more favorable market sentiment [1] - Japan and South Korea are actively negotiating to mitigate the impact of tariffs, which has further fueled risk appetite and pressured gold prices [1] Economic Indicators - The rise in the dollar is closely linked to expectations regarding the U.S. economy and monetary policy, with recent strong employment reports reducing bets on immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a two-week high of 4.435%, while the 30-year yield hit 4.974%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [3] - Trump's tariff policies are seen as a core variable in the financial markets, with the actual tariff rate estimated to have risen to 17.6%, the highest since 1934 [3] Market Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to the ongoing impact of Trump's tariffs and the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit [4] - The market is advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and developments regarding Trump's tariffs for further insights [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a struggle for direction in gold prices, with a trading range between $3,290 and $3,350 [6] - Short-term movements have shown volatility, with prices testing lower levels around $3,286 before a slight rebound [6] Trading Strategy - Suggested long positions near $3,290 with a stop loss at $3,284 and a target around $3,320 to $3,345 [7] - Suggested short positions near $3,345 with a stop loss at $3,353 and a target around $3,323 to $3,303 [7]

Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold, as President Trump postponed the implementation of tariffs on 14 countries to August 1, providing a three-week buffer for negotiations [3] - The strong US dollar, which rose 0.3% to 97.83, continues to exert pressure on gold prices, supported by positive expectations regarding the US economy and a strong June employment report [4] - Rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.435% and the 30-year yield at 4.974%, increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby reducing its attractiveness [5] - Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper and impending tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals may raise inflation expectations, enhancing gold's long-term appeal as an inflation hedge, but could also delay Fed rate cuts, limiting short-term price increases [6] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a downward trend since being resisted at 3365/3366, with current moving averages indicating a bearish outlook [8] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3320 and 3346, while support levels are at 3287 and 3276, with a significant trendline support at 3247/3245 [10] - The four-hour chart indicates a continuation of the downward trend, with resistance levels at 3316/3324 and support at 3283/3278, suggesting a cautious approach until a clear trend reversal is observed [10] Key Events to Watch - Upcoming economic data releases include China's June CPI, New Zealand's interest rate decision, and the US wholesale sales data, which may influence market sentiment and gold prices [12]

美国商务部长卢特尼克：（谈及欧盟贸易谈判时表示）他们已经提出了真正的提议。 ...

本文字数：3705，阅读时长大约6分钟 2025.07. 08 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 高雅 关税风云进入第二季，但对于全球市场的影响在减弱。 据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品 征收25%至40%不等的关税。 但此次关税风暴的冲击不及4月，美国三大指数7日跌幅不到1%；亚太股市7月8日表现更令人意外，日 韩股市并没有明显受到影响，日经225指数、韩国Kospi指数分别上涨0.25%、1.81%；上证综指和恒 生指数8日分别涨0.7%和1.09%；截至记者发稿，欧洲股市主要指数走势平稳，英国富时100指数、德 国DAX指数8日盘中小幅上涨。 截至北京时间7月8日21时20分，亚太主要股市当日收盘均出现上涨，欧洲主要股指当日盘中走势平稳，多数上涨。 接受第一财经记者采访的投资经理和策略师表示，市场对关税的担忧有所下降。高盛认为，欧美贸易谈 判达成协议的可能性在变大。同时，机构对股市的配置热度普遍升温，投行更是逆势上调美股目标价， 投资者亦敢于加码包括中国在内的亚太股市。唯独对于美债，各界依然保持担忧，全球央行增配黄金的 趋势仍将继续。 全球经济分析 ...

日本经济再生大臣、首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正与美国财长贝森特进行了30分钟的电话会谈。美国与日本同意继续就关税问题进行积极的磋商。日本继续寻求与美国达成互利共赢的协议。 ...

日本经济再生大臣、首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正与美国财长贝森特进行了电话会谈。美国与日本同意继续就关税问题进行积极的磋商。日本继续寻求与美国达成互利共赢的协议。 ...