Group 1 - The decision by President Donald Trump to delay higher tariffs on the EU has significantly boosted currencies closely tied to global trade, causing the dollar to drop to its lowest level in nearly two years against a basket of currencies [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.4%, nearing its lowest level since July 2023, following Trump's announcement to extend the deadline for the 50% tariffs on the EU to July 9 [1] - The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar saw substantial gains, with the Australian dollar rising to 0.6537 USD and the New Zealand dollar reaching 0.6032 USD, both at their highest levels since November of the previous year [1] Group 2 - The dollar index has cumulatively declined over 7% since 2025, erasing all gains from the previous year, which recorded the largest annual increase since 2015 [1] - Concerns over tariffs and the extension of tax cuts during Trump's first term have led to growing worries about the U.S. government's fiscal situation, resulting in a weakening demand for the dollar [1] - The delay in EU tariffs has provided support to G10 and emerging market currencies, with the euro rising by 0.5% against the dollar, reaching its highest level since April [1] Group 3 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury futures have declined, indicating that yields are expected to rise by more than three basis points, although global Treasury spot trading is paused due to a U.S. holiday [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar index and the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, highlighting the underlying factors and potential implications for the market. Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US dollar index has dropped approximately 0.3%, with a year-to-date decline of 8.92% [2] - The dollar index opened at 99.0858 and reached a low of 98.6921, indicating a significant downward trend [2] - The euro and British pound have strengthened against the dollar, with the pound reaching its highest level since February 2022 [2] Group 2: Chinese Yuan Performance - The onshore and offshore yuan have both surged, with the offshore yuan breaking the 7.17 mark, reaching a high of 7.1648, the highest since December 2024 [3][4] - The central parity rate of the yuan against the dollar was adjusted up by 86 basis points to 7.1833, marking the highest since April 2 [4] - Over the past month, the dollar to offshore yuan exchange rate has decreased from 7.42 to a low of 7.1616, reflecting a rise of over 2500 basis points [4] Group 3: Factors Influencing Currency Movements - Six key reasons for the yuan's appreciation include improved trade conditions, a weakening dollar, inflow of safe-haven capital, recovery of the Chinese economy, positive policy expectations, and stable exchange rate pricing mechanisms [6] - A report from China International Capital Corporation suggests that if concerns about the US fiscal deficit persist, the yuan may continue to benefit from a weaker dollar, maintaining a moderately strong trend in the short term [7] Group 4: Economic Uncertainty and Market Outlook - The US economy faces uncertainty due to inflation concerns and potential delays in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with officials indicating that a clearer economic picture may take several months to emerge [9][10] - Analysts warn that high tariffs could negatively impact corporate earnings, with estimates suggesting a 3% decline in overall earnings due to a 10% tariff affecting 30%-40% of revenues from overseas for S&P 500 companies [10] - There are concerns that the optimistic earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies may need to be revised downward, potentially affecting stock prices [10]

Currency Exchange Rates - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell to 96.2, down 0.5% week-on-week; the BIS RMB exchange rate index dropped to 101.79, down 0.57%, marking a new low since September 2023; the SDR RMB exchange rate index decreased to 91, down 0.42% [1] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1895, up 142 basis points for the week, reaching a new high since November 8 of the previous year; the offshore RMB against the USD rose by 376 basis points, closing at 7.1722 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. 20-year Treasury bond auction results were poor, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February of this year; the yield reached 5.047%, marking the second time it exceeded 5% [3] - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 49.5, indicating economic contraction, with the services PMI dropping to 48.9, the lowest since January 2024 [4] Foreign Investment and Trade - In April 2025, foreign capital net purchases of domestic bonds reached $10.9 billion, indicating a high level of foreign investment; foreign investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying in late April [2] - China's trade with Central and Eastern European countries reached 329.68 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, setting a historical high for the same period [6] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a simultaneous decrease in loan and deposit rates, with the one-year and five-year LPR down by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively [7] - The PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan for the third consecutive month [7]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、千方百计稳美债，美国核心利益驱动下，各资产如何波动? 这个周末国际上发生了许多大波动，我们来看一下国内外市场会受到什么样的共振。先说一下结论：国 际上或许会面临很多变局，但对于国内投资市场来说，可能会在动荡中保持相对的平静。我们具体来看 一下消息。 首先，我们看一下美国这边。特朗普再次放出"幺蛾子"，这次矛头直指欧洲。大家看到，特朗普扬言从 6月1日开始，也就是几天之后，对欧洲加征50%的关税。这很有可能会让美国股票市场再次经历向下的 波动。另外，对美元指数来说，也会形成无形中的压力。按照逻辑推演，所有美国资产可能在这个时候 都会向下波动。但个人认为，这一次美国国债很可能会逃过一劫。 为什么这么说呢？我们来看一下，每次美国拿出关税大棒的时候，都要面对一个两难选择，很可能 会"杀敌一千，自损八百"。上一次美国提出关税问题时，所有美元资产都出现了向下的重大压力。那么 这一次，为什么又轻易地拿出关税这个手段去尝试呢？难道不担心美元资产再次出现大幅波动吗？我们 推测，在这次美国的政策选择中，可能会有所取舍，有保有压。在一定程度上，美国国债是它要维护的 核心利益。 与之相反 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is experiencing a significant decline, with weekly losses potentially reaching the highest level since April 7, driven by a weakening US dollar and increasing concerns over US fiscal sustainability [1] - The passage of a large tax and spending bill by the House of Representatives is expected to add trillions of dollars to federal debt, heightening market fears regarding fiscal risks [1] - Current gold prices are around $3330.00, supported by the key upward trend line and the middle Bollinger Band at $3301.24, indicating a potential short-term consolidation phase [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are currently just below the resistance level of $33.70, with a confirmed breakout potentially leading to targets of $34.59 and $34.87 [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, but maintaining prices above the 50-day moving average of $32.80 is crucial for a bullish outlook [5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips while monitoring resistance at $33.60-$33.80 and support at $33.00-$32.80 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of mainstream delivery products has declined, and the European timber market is in short supply. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.52 million cubic meters in May. The total inventory of four major ports has decreased slightly, and the market is in a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview - **Spot price**: For 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong is 755 yuan/cubic meter (down 15 yuan from last week), and in Jiangsu is 775 yuan/cubic meter (down 5 yuan from last week). The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remains unchanged at 830 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong drops 15 yuan to 765 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4]. - **Supply**: As of May 18, 25 ships departed from New Zealand in May, with 21 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 14 ships will arrive in May and 11 in June, with an expected arrival volume of 1.52 million cubic meters in May [4][7]. - **Demand and inventory**: As of the week of May 16, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port is 2.32 million cubic meters (down 0.04 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port is 1.20 million cubic meters (up 0.17 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.3676 million cubic meters, with a slight decrease of 77,100 cubic meters from the previous week [5][12]. - **Other factors**: As of the week of May 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1340 points (down 48 points or 3.5% from last week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) is 581 points (up 4.9% from last week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1586.12 points (up 7.2% from last week). The US dollar index weakens, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.4% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.3% from last week [5][56]. 2. Supply - As of May 18, 25 ships departed from New Zealand in May, with 21 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 14 ships will arrive in May and 11 in June, with an expected arrival volume of 1.52 million cubic meters in May. Detailed ship - schedule data is provided [7][8]. 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 16, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port is 2.32 million cubic meters (down 0.04 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port is 1.20 million cubic meters (up 0.17 million cubic meters week - on - week). The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2468 million cubic meters (up 38,000 cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port is about 499,200 cubic meters (down 52,300 cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou is about 400,000 cubic meters (down 6600 cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port is about 221,600 cubic meters (up 19,800 cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.3676 million cubic meters, with a slight decrease of 77,100 cubic meters from the previous week [5][12]. 4. Market Trends - As of May 23, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 775 yuan/cubic meter (down 1.0% from last week). The market continues to fluctuate weakly, and the fundamentals remain in a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads have widened, with the 07 - 09 monthly spread at - 15.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 monthly spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 monthly spread at - 4 yuan/cubic meter [15]. 5. Other - **Price and spreads**: Detailed data on spot price trends, regional price differences of mainstream timber species, and price differences between tree species and specifications are provided [18][20][22]. - **Price - influencing factors**: As of the week of May 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1340 points (down 48 points or 3.5% from last week), the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) is 581 points (up 4.9% from last week), and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1586.12 points (up 7.2% from last week). The US dollar index weakens, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.4% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.3% from last week [55][56].

Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index has decreased by 1.96% this week, closing at 99.114 points on Friday, May 23, indicating a continued downward trend [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has also fallen by 1.73%, reporting a value of 1210.89 points [1]

5月23日，在岸人民币兑美元即期收盘价报7.1895，较上一交易日上涨145点，创2024年11月8日以来新 高。 多重不利因素牵制美元反弹 与人民币汇率走势形成对比的是，年初至今，美元指数高开低走，主要受到美国关税政策的影响。美国 关税政策对于美元指数的影响，经历了从年初的"关税溢价"到"关税折让"的过程。今年年初的时候，市 场预计特朗普强硬的关税政策，会导致美元迅速地升值，因此，开启了"关税溢价"的交易，美元指数一 度冲高至109附近。 但随着特朗普关税政策的反复，以及其他经济体的反制裁措施，"美国例外论"迅速退坡，美元资产遭到 抛售，美元指数在4月份跌落至100点下方。随着中美贸易谈判达成阶段性共识，市场情绪得到短期提 振，目前美元指数处于徘徊震荡的状态。 今年以来，人民币汇率波动性显著增强，汇率双向波动区间明显扩大。5月以来，国内一揽子支持性政 策节奏超预期，提振市场信心，中美贸易会谈结果积极，离岸和在岸人民币兑美元汇率同步走强。 市场人士指出，未来人民币汇率有机会步入"双向波动弹性扩大、市场预期理性回归"的新阶段。短期 看，宽幅震荡区间可能成为新常态。中长期看，随着国内经济的不断回暖，人民币资产的中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, but the decline in consumption intensity may lead to price fluctuations. For aluminum, the rapid depletion of domestic aluminum ingot inventories provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. Lead prices are weak due to limited recycled raw material inventories and the decline in scrap battery prices. Zinc prices face a certain downward risk as the inventory accumulates. Tin prices may decline due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate, and the short - term strategy for alumina is to wait and see. Stainless steel prices have certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [1][3][4][5][7][8][10][13][15] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.34% to $9519/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 77820 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 166525 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts continued to decrease to 32000 tons. - **Market Situation**: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained above 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference narrowed. - **Price Outlook**: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. However, due to the decline in consumption intensity, the price is expected to be volatile. The operating range of SHFE copper is 77200 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is $9400 - 9600/ton [1] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.77% to $2456/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20160 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased rapidly, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 58000 tons. - **Market Situation**: The trading volume in the spot market improved, and the inventory depletion rate accelerated. - **Price Outlook**: The rapid depletion of inventory provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum is $2430 - 2480/ton [3] Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index fell 1.29% to 16681 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1955/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 58200 tons. - **Market Situation**: The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, and the start - up rate continues to decline. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term lead prices are weak [4] Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.72% to 22256 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell to $2676/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 83800 tons, and the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. - **Market Situation**: In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloy increased significantly, mainly flowing to Taiwan. The port inventory of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the processing fee increased again. - **Price Outlook**: In the medium term, as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates, zinc prices still face a certain downward risk [5] Tin - **Price Movement**: SHFE tin main contract fell 1.10% to 264780 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14 tons to 8056 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2665 tons. - **Market Situation**: The tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the high price suppresses the downstream restocking willingness. - **Price Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price center may move down. The operating range of SHFE tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $30000 - 33000/ton [6][7] Nickel - **Price Movement**: SHFE nickel fell 0.53% to 122890 yuan/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.90% to $15490/ton. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 86 tons to 200910 tons. - **Market Situation**: The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded, and the price of intermediate products remains high. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term rebound in nickel iron prices provides support, and nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $15000 - 16300/ton [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index remained unchanged at 62657 yuan, and the LC2507 contract rose 1.70% to 62140 yuan. - **Inventory**: The domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3.2% week - on - week, and the SMM weekly inventory decreased by 141 tons. - **Market Situation**: The disk price is in the cost - intensive area, and there is selling pressure above. - **Price Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate. The operating range of the LC2507 contract is 61100 - 63200 yuan/ton [10] Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.05% to 3207 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9900 tons to 163600 tons. - **Market Situation**: The spot prices in various regions increased, and the overseas FOB price remained stable. - **Price Outlook**: Due to the continuous disturbances in the mine and supply sides, the short - term strategy is to wait and see. The operating range of the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [12][13] Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.23% to 12870 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory decreased by 1314 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. - **Market Situation**: The prices of raw materials were stable, and the long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Qing Shan Group remained unchanged. - **Price Outlook**: The 304 variety has certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [15]

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.41% on May 22, closing at 99.959, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against major currencies [1] Currency Exchange Rates - 1 Euro exchanged for 1.1278 USD, down from 1.1333 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 British Pound exchanged for 1.3423 USD, slightly lower than the previous day's 1.3428 USD [1] - 1 USD exchanged for 144.15 Japanese Yen, up from 143.64 Yen the previous day [1] - 1 USD exchanged for 0.8292 Swiss Francs, an increase from 0.8251 Francs [1] - 1 USD exchanged for 1.3867 Canadian Dollars, higher than the previous day's 1.3841 Dollars [1] - 1 USD exchanged for 9.6352 Swedish Krona, up from 9.5639 Krona [1]