期货热点追踪 马棕油期价延续走弱，市场多重因素利空，未来期价或下探至..... 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - As of April 30, the main futures price of urea has rapidly risen, mainly stimulated by export news [doc id='1']. - The National Development and Reform Commission is rumored to allocate an export quota of 3.5 million tons of diamine phosphate, with an export window from June to December [doc id='4']. - As of April 30, mainstream factories in Shandong have successively stopped accepting orders. For example, Dongguang has stopped receiving orders for 10,000 tons, Zhengyuan has also stopped accepting orders, and Ruixing has received 10,000 tons and then stopped [doc id='4']. - This week, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises is 1.065 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 158,800 tons [doc id='4']. - The short - term fundamental support is limited. The market is optimistic about the demand starting after the May Day holiday, and the export news has frequently disrupted the market. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread and go long at low prices [doc id='4'].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures fell 0.95%, and the glass futures fell 3.48%. The soda ash market was supported by inventory decline but restricted by weak downstream demand, while the glass market was affected by the macro - environment and the real estate situation, showing a weak trend [6][10]. - In the future, the supply of the soda ash market will remain loose, and the inventory is expected to level off after the peak installation of photovoltaic glass. The supply of the glass market will remain stable, with high inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak shock [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to trade the SA2509 contract in the range of 1290 - 1390 with a stop - loss range of 1260 - 1420, and operate the FG2509 in the range of 1060 - 1220 with a stop - loss range of 1040 - 1260 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures fell 0.95%, with the 09 contract rising and then falling. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 1.88 million tons to 1.6722 billion tons, a decline of 1.11%. Glass futures fell 3.48%, with the main contract in a weak position, affected by the real - estate description in the Politburo meeting, but still supported by costs [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The soda ash industry's high - level production will continue, and the supply will remain loose. The inventory may level off after the peak of photovoltaic glass installation. The glass supply will remain stable, with high inventory and weak demand due to the sluggish real - estate market [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2509 in the 1290 - 1390 range with a stop - loss of 1260 - 1420, and operate FG2509 in the 1060 - 1220 range with a stop - loss of 1040 - 1260 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Zhengzhou soda ash's main contract fell 0.95%, and Zhengzhou glass's main contract fell 3.48% this week [10]. - **Basis**: Soda ash's spot price fell, and the basis strengthened, approaching one - standard deviation. Glass's spot price remained flat, and the basis weakened due to the decline in futures prices [18][22]. - **Spread**: The soda ash - glass spread continued to strengthen, mainly due to the over - decline of glass, and is expected to continue strengthening [27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Production and Capacity**: The domestic soda ash's operating rate increased to 88.89%, while the output decreased to 755,100 tons. The number of glass production lines remained stable, and the daily output decreased to 157,800 tons. The photovoltaic glass's operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume increased, but are expected to decline after the festival [31][43][47]. - **Profit**: Soda ash and glass enterprises' profits increased. Soda ash's profit increased due to cost changes, and glass's profit varied by production method, with an expected slight decline next week [37]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash enterprises' inventory decreased to 1.6722 billion tons, mainly due to the increase in photovoltaic glass's daily melting volume, and is expected to level off. Glass enterprises' inventory decreased to 64.989 million heavy boxes, mainly due to increased automobile sales and dealer restocking, and is expected to rise slightly next week [53]. - **Downstream Demand**: The glass's downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly but remained at a historical low, indicating weak downstream confidence [59].

| 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 寇帝斯 Z0021810 | 2025年4月30日 | | | | | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 4月29日 | 4月28日 | 演讲 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14550 | 14550 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -85 | -180 | વેર | 52.78% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14200 | 14300 | -100 | -0.70% | | | 非标价差 | -435 | -430 | G5 | -1.16% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.30 | 52.05 | 0.25 | 0.48% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 58.25 | 58.00 | 0.25 | 0.43% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12800 | ...

PCE和小非农携手来袭，黄金能打破震荡吗？期市节后行情怎么看？期货资深研究员Leo正在为您深度 剖析当前市场格局，洞察期货品种基本面，并展望大宗商品的未来走向。立即进入直播间。 相关链接 金十期货正在直播 ...

Report Summary Core Views - On April 29, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% to 3286.65, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.05% to 9849.80, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.13% to 1931.94. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 343 million yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation on April 29, closing at 3775.08, down 6.54 from the previous day [1]. Variety - Specific Summaries Stock Index Futures - On April 29, A - share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined slightly, and the trading volume shrank slightly [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 29, the coke weighted index was weak and volatile, closing at 1556.4 yuan, down 13.4 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 927.4 yuan, down 18.0 from the previous day [1]. - After the first round of price increase for coke, the coking profit improved, and coking plants increased production actively. The steel mills' profit ratio increased, and the billet export volume increased significantly. The pig iron output increased more than expected this week, and the coke fundamentals improved marginally [1]. - The coking coal mine's operating rate increased month - on - month, the seaborne coal shipment from Reuters was still tight, and the customs clearance at the port decreased due to environmental inspections. The coking profit continued to improve, but the pre - holiday inventory replenishment was over, and coking plants only maintained rigid demand procurement. The upstream coking coal mines had high inventory pressure [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The market was concerned about the expiration and delivery of the May contract, and traders expected the delivery volume to be about 2 million tons, strengthening the view of sufficient global supply. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the long - holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fluctuated downward on Wednesday [1]. Rubber - Affected by the decline in Southeast Asian spot quotes and the long - holiday effect, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly lower on Wednesday. Due to long - position holders closing positions to avoid holiday risks, Shanghai rubber closed slightly lower at night [2]. - Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first quarter were 122.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.6%. Indonesia's total exports in the first two months were 29.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12% [2]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybeans fluctuated and closed lower on Tuesday. The start of US soybeans in 2025 was basically normal. Brazil's soybean harvest was nearly over, and it exported 12.95 billion tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of April, with the daily average export volume increasing by 14% year - on - year. As of April 24, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina was 13%, lagging behind 23% in the same period last year [2]. - Domestically, the soybean meal futures were weak on Tuesday. The main M2509 contract closed at 2964 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7%. With the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the market expected a significant increase in the operating rate of oil mills after the holiday, and the soybean meal inventory would turn around. The domestic soybean meal market was in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price might be weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the arrival volume of soybeans [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The hog futures price was weak and volatile on Tuesday. The main LH2509 contract closed at 13910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42%. The slaughter rhythm of the near - end breeding side accelerated, and the market supply of hogs increased. Supported by the May Day holiday, some slaughterhouses increased their pre - holiday inventory, but the market substitutes were sufficient, and the sales of white - striped pigs in many wholesale markets were still difficult. According to the inventory of breeding sows, the theoretical supply capacity of hogs would increase month - on - month in the second quarter, and the market was in a pattern of loose supply. The hog futures might be weak and volatile, and short - term attention should be paid to the price difference between standard and fat hogs and the slaughter situation [3]. Palm Oil - On April 29, palm oil continued to decline. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative K - line, with the highest price of 8208, the lowest price of 8116, and the closing price of 8120, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous day [4]. - The commercial inventory of palm oil was 400,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 40,000 tons month - on - month, and a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year. The near - month purchase orders increased, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil was still inverted, and the incremental consumption of palm oil did not improve significantly [4]. Shanghai Copper - On April 29, the price of the main Shanghai copper contract fluctuated slightly, and the market was relatively stable. The US tariff policy was still uncertain, and the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The mine supply was tight, the smelting processing fee decreased, the domestic consumption peak season supported the demand, the inventory trend was downward, but the medium - term demand expectation was cautious. The short - term impact of tariffs eased, but the medium - term uncertainty remained. With the approaching of the holiday, the market sentiment was cautious, and the copper price continued to fluctuate widely [4]. Iron Ore - On April 29, the main iron ore 2509 contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.28% and a closing price of 709 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly this period, the arrivals also increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mills' rigid demand for inventory replenishment supported the pig iron output to rise again, but the pig iron output was already at a high level, and the room for further increase was limited. The iron ore showed a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On April 29, the main asphalt 2506 contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.53% and a closing price of 3430 yuan. The operating rate of asphalt refineries increased for three consecutive periods, the refinery processing profit was repaired, and the output was expected to increase. The shipment volume increased for two consecutive periods, and the market demand was supported. The asphalt showed a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 12790 yuan/ton. On April 29, the minimum basis price of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange was 580 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 359 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. Logs - The 2507 log contract opened at 793.5 on Tuesday, with the lowest price of 785, the highest price of 797, and the closing price of 787, and the position decreased by 320 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 - 790 and the resistance at 803 [5]. - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 790 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory decreased month - on - month, the outbound volume increased slightly, the overall demand was still weak, there was no major conflict in the supply - demand relationship, and the market was waiting for the spot price to stabilize. Attention should be paid to the import data, the downstream purchasing, and the price - holding intention of traders [6][8]. Steel - On April 29, rb2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3210 yuan/ton. The terminal demand increased on a low - base basis but was weaker than the same period in previous years, and the apparent demand was lower than expected. In the context of the "Silver April" peak season with lower - than - expected demand and no new policy information, the upward driving force of steel prices was weak. It was expected that steel prices would fluctuate repeatedly in a weak pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback expectation of the black chain [8]. Alumina - On April 29, ao2509 closed at 2766 yuan/ton. The operating situation of alumina enterprises was still changing rapidly. Due to the previous centralized maintenance and production reduction, the market supply pressure was relieved, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly. The alumina had short - term support at the bottom. However, new production capacity was gradually advancing, and overseas alumina production capacity was also ready to be put into operation. There was still high supply pressure in the future, and medium - and long - term negative factors remained [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On April 29, al2506 closed at 19930 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated in a narrow range. In the past week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to decline rapidly, by 30,000 tons and 34,000 tons respectively, and the total inventory was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The short - term pessimism was repaired, and the strong fundamentals supported the aluminum price to return to around 20,000 yuan. However, to further expand the industry profit of more than 3000 yuan, a stronger supply - demand gap expectation was needed. Under the shadow of the trade war, the off - season demand outlook was not optimistic [9].

2025 年 04 月 30 日 尿素：节前宽幅震荡，注意仓位管理 | 项 目 | | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,735 | 1,781 | -46 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,748 | 1,772 | -24 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 313,145 | 208,654 | 104491 | | （09合约） | | 持仓量 | （手） | 210,028 | 205,466 | 4562 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 4,999 | 4,999 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,094,533 | 739,284 | 355249 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | 6 5 | 9 | 5 6 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -35 | -81 | 4 6 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜可交割品） | 5 5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The industrial silicon market shows a weak and volatile trend, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The polysilicon market also has a trend strength of -1, suggesting a bearish view as well [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2506 closing price is 8,540 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from T - 1 and 1,380 yuan from T - 22. The volume is 199,942 hands, and the open interest is 195,153 hands. For polysilicon, the PS2506 closing price is 37,320 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 1. The volume is 116,998 hands, and the open interest is 58,208 hands [2]. - **Basis**: The industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +955 yuan/ton, and for polysilicon (against N - type re - investment) is +4680 yuan/ton [2]. - **Prices**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 9450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. The price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 40500 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Profits**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 3327 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 6333 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 2.9 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 60.2 tons, the enterprise inventory is 25.2 tons, and the industry inventory is 85.4 tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 25.9 tons [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 440 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 410 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang is 1600 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is 1040 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On April 23, it was reported that the main construction of the 12GW high - efficiency BC battery project of LONGi Green Energy in Xi'an Economic and Technological Development Zone was basically completed, and the production equipment procurement was finished. The project plans to move in equipment at the end of April, supply energy at the end of May, and complete the installation of production equipment for trial production at the end of June. The total investment of the project is about 12.5 billion yuan, to be constructed and put into production in 3 phases [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, despite increased cost support, weak demand and high inventory levels suggest a bearish outlook. The price of Industrial Silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 8,450 - 8,630 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, although there are signs of production increase and cost stability, overall demand is currently declining but may rebound. The price of Polysilicon 2506 is predicted to oscillate between 36,785 - 37,855 yuan/ton [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 70,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 67,000 tons, a 20.23% decrease from the previous week, remaining persistently weak [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,139 yuan/ton, with increased cost support during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On April 29th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 810 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 602,000 tons, a 1.63% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 251,900 tons, a 1.46% decrease; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the 06 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Forecast: Supply production is decreasing, demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is rising. The price of Industrial Silicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 8,450 - 8,630 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. The predicted production for April is 100,900 tons, a 4.99% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.38 GW, a 1.40% decrease; inventory was 195,300 tons, a 7.18% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell production is also in a loss state, while component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,940 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 3,560 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On April 29th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 3,180 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium over futures [11]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 259,000 tons, a 3.18% increase, at a neutral level compared to historical data [11]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the 06 contract price closed below the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [11]. - Forecast: Supply production continues to increase, while demand for silicon wafers may decrease in the medium - term after a short - term increase. Battery cell and component production are on the rise. Overall demand is currently weak but may rebound. The price of Polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate between 36,785 - 37,855 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon market overview: It includes price changes of different contracts, inventory data, production, and basis information [17]. - Polysilicon market overview: Covers price changes of different contracts, production, inventory, and cost data [19]. - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends: Analyzes the historical trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [21]. - Industrial silicon inventory: Displays historical inventory data of different regions and warehouses [24]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends: Shows the historical production and capacity utilization of different regions [25]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends: Presents the historical cost and profit trends of different regions [31]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets: Analyze the supply - demand balance situation of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [33][36]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon: Includes price, production, inventory, and import - export data of organic silicon products [39]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy: Covers price, supply, inventory, and production data of aluminum alloy products, as well as related demand data from the automotive and wheel hub industries [47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon: Analyzes the fundamental trends, supply - demand balance, and cost - profit data of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [57].

2025年04月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁低位震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：矿端信息扰动，锰硅低位震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：限产消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：刚需发力有限，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 4 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | ...