Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On November 10, 2025, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 4000-point mark, rising 0.53% to close at 4018.60 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.18% to close at 13427.61 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.92% to close at 3178.83 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2174.5 billion yuan, an increase of 175.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 index showed a strengthening trend on November 10, closing at 4695.05, a环比 increase of 16.26 [2]. - The weighted index of coke was weak on November 10, closing at 1774.0, a环比 decrease of 20.2. The weighted index of coking coal showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 1277.1 yuan, a环比 decrease of 14.9 [2][3]. - The third round of price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for coke has been implemented. Some coke enterprises proposed a fourth - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton starting from 0:00 on November 10. The total inventory of coke decreased by 129,700 tons last week [4]. - After the third - round price increase of coke, the production profit loss of coke enterprises decreased slightly, but the production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises declined. The terminal demand was weak, and the steel mill's profit had a negative feedback on the molten iron output [5]. - Affected by the expectation of the US government's potential restart and strong Brazilian export data in October, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract and Shanghai Rubber showed an upward trend on November 10 [5][6]. - On November 10, the palm oil futures maintained a low - level volatile trend, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8690, a 0.35% increase from the previous day. As of November 7, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country increased [6]. - After the US Senate advanced a measure to reopen the federal government, industrial metals, including Shanghai Copper, rose. China's CPI turned from a decline to an increase in October 2025, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The social inventory of refined copper decreased slightly [6]. - On the night of November 10, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13,595 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 281 lots compared with the previous trading day. The cotton picking in northern and eastern Xinjiang has ended, and southern Xinjiang is in the late stage of picking [6]. - On November 10, the 2601 main contract of logs opened at 778, with a minimum of 772.5, a maximum of 785, and closed at 782.5, with a decrease of 866 lots in positions. The spot price of logs in Shandong remained flat, while that in Jiangsu decreased. From January to October, the import of logs and sawn timber decreased year - on - year [6][7]. - On November 10, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.07% at 765 yuan. The iron ore shipment decreased环比, while the domestic arrival volume increased significantly. The molten iron output decreased for 5 consecutive periods [7]. - On November 10, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 1.17% at 3036 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased环比, and the inventory continued to decline. The terminal demand remained weak [8]. - On November 10, rb2601 of steel closed at 3044 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3252 yuan/ton. The coking coal market remained tight, and coke started the fourth - round price increase. The demand for steel in the off - season was weak, and the supply - demand situation was weak on both sides [8]. - On November 10, ao2601 of alumina closed at 2829 yuan/ton. The supply of caustic soda was disrupted, driving up the cost of alumina. However, the demand for alumina was expected to weaken [8]. - On November 10, al2512 of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan/ton. The high aluminum price suppressed the downstream procurement willingness. There were risks on the supply side, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in November [8]. Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report.

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve due to the slight increase in spot prices and production cuts during the dry season in the southwest. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. With the expected increase in silicon - coal prices, there is some support for industrial silicon. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [2][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but there is still significant inventory pressure. The downstream production schedule may weaken, and consumer support is average. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [5][8]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On November 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,230 yuan/ton and closed at 9,290 yuan/ton, a change of 120 yuan/ton (1.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,503 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,255 lots, a change of 75 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase), and 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton (a 50 - yuan increase). The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 8,900 yuan/ton, with no change. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and others increased, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [2]. - In Yunnan, the dry season has arrived. Most silicon enterprises in production stopped production at the end of October, and a few stopped in early November. Currently, there are only over 20 silicon furnaces in production in the entire Yunnan region, and the remaining enterprises are of the integrated or long - order delivery types [2]. - The consumption side: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton with no change. Yunneng Silicon Materials' Qujing Branch completed a key technological transformation project, which improved the tank utilization rate to 100% and laid a foundation for process optimization and cost control [3]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, buy on dips - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - futures, and options [4] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On November 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile trend, opening at 53,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,720 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 125,974 lots (125,517 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 218,786 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg, with no change. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a month - on - month change of - 0.77%), and silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW (a month - on - month change of - 7.45%). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,000 tons (a month - on - month change of - 4.30%), and silicon wafer production was 13.45GW (a month - on - month change of - 5.55%) [5][6]. - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase compared to September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [6]. - Silicon wafer prices: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.32 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece, with no change [6]. - Battery cell prices: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W, with no change [6]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W, with no change [7]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton - No strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, cash - futures, and options [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being "oscillating", and some like iron ore having an outlook of "oscillating on the stronger side" [7][9][10][15][19]. Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, industry contradictions are limited. With no new disturbances from the macro and policy fronts, the prices of black building materials sector varieties are expected to maintain an oscillating trend. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, the possibility of a phased upward movement can be considered [1][5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. Southeast Asian hurricanes may disrupt arrival schedules. Demand is weakening seasonally, but the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. After the peak arrival period ends, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance, and prices are expected to oscillate on the stronger side in the short term after a rapid decline [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the fundamentals have weakened marginally. Recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure, and leading steel enterprises in East China lowered the price by 30 yuan/ton over the weekend. It is expected that the spot price of scrap steel will follow the decline in the short term [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are resistant to further increases, but coke has strong cost support and steel mills still have procurement demand. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is difficult to improve, and import supplements are limited. Although the procurement of mid - and downstream enterprises is expected to slow down, coal mine inventories are at a low level in recent years, and there is little possibility of significant inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are expected to remain healthy until the end of the year, and the spot price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by finished products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term costs strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term cost trends strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward driving force for prices is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][18]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply may still be disturbed, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Currently, supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price may oscillate weakly; otherwise, it may rise. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: Recently, cost increases and factory shutdowns have led to a rebound in prices. However, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and prices above the industry's high - cost line may face pressure again. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][14][16]. 5. Commodity Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2254.65, up 0.65%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2552.65, up 0.71%; the Industrial Products Index was 2226.35, up 0.48%; and the PPI Commodity Index was 1346.01, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index rose 0.26% on that day, with a decline of 0.12% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.18% in the past month, and a decline of 5.37% since the beginning of the year [99][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of polyolefins remain under pressure, and the prices continue to fluctuate at the bottom. PE is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with limited cost - side support and short - term price pressure. PP has supply - demand contradictions, weak cost - side support, and short - term prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The figures include the plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, and PP East China basis [8][9] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit from crude oil, PE capacity utilization rate, PP production profit from crude oil, PP production profit from PDH, polypropylene capacity utilization rate, and PP weekly output are presented in the figures [16][19][20] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The figures show the price differences such as HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, etc., as well as the polypropylene maintenance loss volume and PDH capacity utilization rate [27][33] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Figures cover LL import profit, LL export - related price differences, PP import profit, and PP export profit (to Southeast Asia) [40][52] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The downstream operating rates of PE (agricultural film, packaging film, etc.) and PP (plastic weaving, BOPP, etc.) and the production profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP are shown in the figures [63][71] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventories of PE (oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, ports) and PP (oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, ports) are presented in the figures [72][82][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Short put 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price remained relatively volatile during the week, supported by mine - end disturbances but with lackluster demand. It is expected to maintain a volatile range between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton, and physical enterprises can arrange buy or sell hedging according to this range [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On November 10, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 86,110 yuan/ton and closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, a 0.63% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 86,790 yuan/ton and closed at 86,500 yuan/ton, a 0.20% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot price was quoted at 86,360 - 86,710 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 55 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase from the previous day. The market trading activity increased, and the mainstream transactions this week are expected to center around par [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - The US announced a one - year suspension of the Section 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding and other industries, and China suspended the special port dues on US ships and the countermeasures against 5 US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. for one year [3] - After a 40 - day government shutdown, the US Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary appropriation bill to end the shutdown. The bill still needs a final vote in the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the government shutdown may end before this weekend [3] 3.1.4 Mine End - Solaris Resources' pre - feasibility study shows that the after - tax net present value of its Warintza copper - gold project in Ecuador could reach $4.6 billion. The after - tax internal rate of return is 26%, and the after - tax payback period is 2.6 years. The initial capital is expected to be $3.73 billion. The project plans to produce 240,000 tons of copper equivalent per year over a 22 - year mine life [4] 3.1.5 Smelting and Import - In the past week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline. The bill of lading weekly average price was $46.8/ton, a $5.8 decrease from the previous week; the warehouse receipt average price was $35/ton, a $1.8 decrease. The import loss was about 600 yuan/ton as of November 7. The import window may open briefly in mid - to - late November, but the subsequent upside of the Yangshan copper premium is limited [5] 3.1.6 Consumption - From January to October, in Baotou City, the first - industry electricity consumption was 187 million kWh, a 3.89% year - on - year decrease; the second - industry electricity consumption was 87.273 billion kWh, a 1.3% increase. The third - industry and residential electricity consumption also increased [6] - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month decrease. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 63.84%. The expected production in November is 194,600 tons, a 2.91% increase [6][7] 3.1.7 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,425 tons to 136,275 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 395 tons to 43,789 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.959 million tons, a 74,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [7] 3.2 Copper Price and Basis Data | Project | 2025 - 11 - 11 | 2025 - 11 - 10 | 2025 - 11 - 04 | 2025 - 10 - 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount)<br> - SMM: 1 Copper | 55 | 40 | - 5 | 20 | | - Premium Copper | 115 | 90 | 60 | 80 | | - Flat - water Copper | 10 | 15 | - 30 | - 5 | | - Wet - process Copper | - 50 | - 70 | - 100 | - 75 | | - Yangshan Premium (USD/ton) | 43 | 44 | 51 | 53 | | - LME (0 - 3) | - 18 | - 31 | - 14 | - 37 | | Inventory<br> - LME (tons) | 136275 | 135900 | 133600 | 139200 | | - SHFE (tons) | 115035 | | 116140 | | | - COMEX (tons) | 335086 | 332410 | 322649 | 302613 | | Warehouse Receipts<br> - SHFE Warehouse Receipts (tons) | 43789 | 43394 | 40066 | 29964 | | - LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipts Ratio | 8.30% | 7.96% | 9.95% | 5.95% | | - CU2602 - CU2511 (Contango - Near Month) | 50 | 40 | 70 | 40 | | - CU12 - CU11 (Main - Near Month) | 0 | 20 | 40 | 10 | | Arbitrage<br> - CU12/AL12 | 3.98 | 3.97 | 4.04 | 4.09 | | - CU12/ZN12 | 3.81 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 3.86 | | - Import Profit (yuan/ton) | - 585 | - 496 | - 872 | - 1012 | [27][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. The spot market negotiation atmosphere is currently dull, mainly among traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis is running at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see [5]. - For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. The port inventory has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, resulting in weak market sentiment [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level needs to be monitored when the market rebounds [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated upward yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis was stable. The negotiation and transaction price in mid - and late November was around 4565 - 4640, and the mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 78 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4594, the basis of the 01 contract is - 110, and the futures price is at a premium [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position has decreased [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was average. The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased as expected, and the arrival of goods within the week is still relatively large, leading to weak market sentiment. The spot transaction was around a premium of 67 - 72 yuan/ton over the 01 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4008, the basis of the 01 contract is 55, and the futures price is at a discount [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 56.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.7 tons [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: The main position has changed from short to long [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus PTA - The short - term price is expected to follow the cost side with a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in the device [5]. MEG - It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious resistance above. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity has been increasing, and the supply and demand situation has changed. For example, in 2024, the supply growth rate was relatively high in some months, and the inventory also changed accordingly [8]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the demand from the polyester industry has also affected its supply - demand balance. The port inventory has also shown different trends in different periods [9]. Price Data - On November 10, 2025, compared with November 7, 2025, the prices of some products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, and MEG have changed. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 382.778 to 56.7 yuan/ton [10].

Report Title - "Asphalt: Factory Inventory Continues to Accumulate, Sentiment is Weak" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows weak sentiment with factory inventory accumulation [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is neutral with a value of 0 [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,034 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.59%, and the overnight closing price was 3,022 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.40%. For BU2601, the yesterday's closing price was 3,036 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.39%, and the overnight closing price was 3,022 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.46%. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts decreased [1] - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The refinery operating rate was 33.50%, down 0.36% from the previous period, and the refinery inventory rate was 28.45%, up 0.60% [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 12) was 16 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the 12 - 01 inter - period spread was - 2 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was - 300, down 40; the East China - South China spread was 40 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1] Market Information - **Production**: In the week of 20251104 - 20251110, the domestic asphalt weekly total output was 52.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 tons (0.8%) and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 tons (0.2%). The cumulative output from January to November was 2715.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 310.7 tons (12.9%) [15] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 68.8 tons, up 0.4% from November 6. The inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 116.7 tons, down 3.5% from November 6 [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical futures on November 11, 2025, including trends such as high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and inventory - related impacts [2]. - For different products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy are considered to form corresponding views and suggestions [12][13]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Trends**: PX is in a high - level oscillation market supported by overseas blending oil demand; PTA has fair demand but supply pressure, showing a strong - biased oscillation; MEG has a large inventory increase, with a weak unilateral trend [2][12][13]. - **Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6852元/吨, 涨72元, 涨幅1.06%; PTA主力收盘价4704元/吨, 涨40元, 涨幅0.86%; MEG主力收盘价3953元/吨, 涨11元, 涨幅0.28% [5]. - **Suggestions**: For PX, continue to monitor the impact on short - process device operation; for PTA, short the processing fee when it is high; for MEG, conduct a high - selling reverse spread on the monthly spread [12][13]. Rubber - **Market Trends**: It shows a strong - biased oscillation. The futures price has increased, and the spot price of some varieties has also risen [14][15]. - **Data**: The rubber main contract's daily - session closing price was 15,110 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the night - session closing price was 15,160 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan [15]. - **News**: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, and the social inventory also had corresponding changes [16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trends**: It is in short - term oscillation. Although the decline rate has slowed down, in the medium - term, the weak operation of butadiene will drive the price of synthetic rubber down [18][21]. - **Data**: The daily - session closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the trading volume was 114,254 lots, up 7936 lots [18]. - **News**: As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory decreased, and the butadiene market was slightly weak on November 10 [19][21]. Asphalt - **Market Trends**: Factory inventory continues to accumulate, and market sentiment is low. The futures price has declined slightly [22]. - **Data**: The closing price of BU2512 was 3,034 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of BU2601 was 3,036 yuan/ton, down 0.39% [22]. - **News**: From November 4 - 10, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output decreased slightly; as of November 10, the factory inventory increased by 0.4%, and the social inventory decreased by 3.5% [36]. LLDPE - **Market Trends**: The profit in the monomer segment is compressed, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The market price continues to decline slightly [37]. - **Data**: The closing price of L2601 was 6802 yuan/ton, with no change; the trading volume was 298,530 lots, and the position increased by 930 lots [37]. - **Analysis**: The raw material oil price oscillates, the downstream demand has rigid support, but the willingness of middle - and downstream players to hold goods has weakened, and the supply - side contradiction is not significant in the short - term [37]. PP - **Market Trends**: The trend is weak. Multiple factors such as trade wars, oil prices, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly put downward pressure on the price [40][41]. - **Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6480 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the trading volume was 276,564 lots, and the position decreased by 13,051 lots [40]. - **Analysis**: The end of the downstream peak - season restocking and low - price restocking factors, along with continuous weak demand and high supply, suppress the price [41]. Caustic Soda - **Market Trends**: The cost provides support, and the valuation is being repaired. However, the high - output and high - inventory pattern continues, and the price rebound space is limited [44][45]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price was 2349 yuan/ton, and the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton [44]. - **Analysis**: The alumina industry's impact on caustic soda demand is basically offset, and the cost increase can only lead to a low - level valuation repair [45]. Pulp - **Market Trends**: It shows a strong - biased oscillation. The futures price has increased, and the market sentiment in the downstream finished paper market has improved to some extent [46][49]. - **Data**: The daily - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the trading volume was 241,489 lots, up 61,509 lots [48]. - **News**: The futures market is driven by funds, but whether the spot price can continue to rise depends on actual transactions. The price of the downstream living paper market is expected to oscillate [49][50]. Glass - **Market Trends**: The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has declined, and the spot market price continues to weaken slightly [51][52]. - **Data**: The closing price of FG601 was 1069 yuan/ton, down 2.73%; the trading volume was 2,327,951 lots, and the position increased by 196,321 lots [52]. - **Analysis**: The futures market oscillates downward, and downstream players purchase at low prices [52]. Methanol - **Market Trends**: The driving force is downward, but the downward space is gradually narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is under pressure [54][56]. - **Data**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,101 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the trading volume was 1,283,246 lots, and the position increased by 14,769 lots [54]. - **Analysis**: The supply increases after device复产, imports are abundant, and the MTO industry's profit is compressed, but the cost - side support gradually strengthens [56][57]. Urea - **Market Trends**: It oscillates. The spot trading activity has weakened, and the futures price is under pressure from incremental warehouse receipts [58][60][61]. - **Data**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,660 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 174,463 lots, and the position decreased by 11,014 lots [59]. - **Analysis**: The domestic supply is high, but the export policy eases the downward pressure. The 01 - contract has a strong pressure level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [61]. Styrene - **Market Trends**: It oscillates in the short - term. The contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the bottom - fishing sentiment of funds at low prices [62][63]. - **Data**: The closing price of styrene 2512 was 6,315 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the EB - BZ spread was 1020, up 20 [62]. - **Analysis**: The pure benzene is in a weak pattern, and the domestic supply is high, but the short - term market sentiment is boosted [63]. Soda Ash - **Market Trends**: The spot market changes little. The market is oscillating strongly, with the light - soda price rising and the market sentiment improving [64]. - **Data**: The closing price of SA2601 was 1,226 yuan/ton, up 1.49%; the trading volume was 1,542,782 lots, and the position decreased by 29,768 lots [64]. - **Analysis**: The coal price rises, the supply decreases slightly, the downstream demand is stable, and the short - term market is expected to be firm [64]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Trends**: For LPG, the demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high; for propylene, the supply - demand gap narrows, and there is short - term support [67][68]. - **Data**: The closing price of PG2512 was 4,323 yuan/ton, up 1.19%; the closing price of PL2601 was 5,905 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [68]. - **News**: On November 10, 2025, the CP paper - cargo prices of propane and butane increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant device maintenance plans [73][74]. PVC - **Market Trends**: The trend still faces pressure. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is under pressure [76]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price was 4614 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4520 yuan/ton, the basis was - 94, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread was - 295 [76]. - **Analysis**: The "using soda to supplement chlorine" pattern in the profit chain is difficult to sustain, and the high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [76]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trends**: Fuel oil shows a short - term oscillating trend, and the night - session is still weak; low - sulfur fuel oil weakens in the short - term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the external spot market rebounds slightly [79]. - **Data**: The closing price of FU2512 was 2,688 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the closing price of LU2512 was 3,263 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [79]. - **Analysis**: The market shows different trends in price, trading volume, and spread [79]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trends**: It is in an oscillating market. The futures price shows different changes, and the freight rate index also has corresponding fluctuations [81]. - **Data**: The closing price of EC2512 was 1,778.2, down 1.84%; the SCFIS European route index was 1,504.80, with a weekly increase of 24.5% [81]. - **Analysis**: The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity and freight rates [81].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity markets experienced notable price movements on November 10, with various sugar, coffee, cocoa, and cotton futures showing increases, while Robusta coffee futures saw a slight decline [1] Group 1: Sugar Market - ICE raw sugar futures rose by 1.13% [1] - ICE white sugar futures increased by 0.84% [1] Group 2: Coffee Market - ICE Arabica coffee futures increased by 1.99% [1] - Coffee "C" futures saw a rise of 2.14% [1] - Robusta coffee futures decreased by 0.30% [1] Group 3: Cocoa Market - New York cocoa futures rose by 0.91% [1] - London cocoa futures increased by 0.23% [1] Group 4: Cotton Market - ICE cotton futures rose by 0.94% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Timber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - number rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, cost, and inventory factors [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton showed a volatile trend today, and the basis of cotton spot sales remained stable. The cost of new cotton provides some support to the futures price, but there is hedging pressure for significant price increases. As of November 6, the cumulative national cotton processing was 319.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.5 million tons. The cotton yarn market changed little, with demand remaining stable. The improvement in Sino - US relations also supports cotton prices. Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, and sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. There are rumors of syrup import control, which provides some support. The market is focusing on the next season's production estimate. Based on remote sensing data, the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price rebounded. In the Shandong apple production area, the apple acquisition is nearing the end. The price of high - quality apples remained stable, while the price of general and semi - first - grade apples declined slightly. As of November 6, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 682.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The market trading logic has shifted to sales expectations. Due to the high acquisition price and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell, the de - stocking speed may be affected. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. An overall bearish approach is recommended [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - number rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price rose slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan production area in China has entered the low - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased slightly last week. The domestic tire operating rate continued to rise slightly, and the inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increased. Rubber inventories increased, and cost support was weak. The market sentiment improved. An oversold rebound strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to rise, and the spot prices followed suit. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.3 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%. Overseas阔叶浆 quotes are strong, and some traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream procurement willingness is average. The pulp valuation is still low, with medium - to - long - term improvement expectations. Recently, the willingness of funds to push up prices is strong. Buying on dips is recommended [7] Logs - The futures price was weak. The spot price in Taicang Port decreased by 10 yuan. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The external quote is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve. The demand from port shipments is above 60,000 cubic meters, which supports prices. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see [8]