Report Overview - **Date**: November 10, 2025 - **Research Focus**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip futures in the polyester industry Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Short - fiber: The demand in the peak season continues, and the market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - Bottle - chip: Supported by upstream factors, the market will be in a fluctuating state [1] Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Short - fiber - **Futures Prices**: The price of short - fiber 2512 increased from 6176 to 6244, short - fiber 2601 from 6210 to 6278, and short - fiber 2602 from 6214 to 6274 [1] - **Spread**: PF12 - 01 remained at - 34, PF01 - 02 increased from - 4 to 4 [1] - **Basis**: The short - fiber主力基差 decreased from 149 to 86 [1] - **Position and Volume**: The short - fiber主力持仓量 increased from 89628 to 95359, while the short - fiber主力成交量 decreased from 117976 to 106550 [1] - **Spot Price and Sales Rate**: The short - fiber华东现货价格 increased from 6325 to 6330, and the short - fiber产销率 decreased from 86% to 48% [1] Bottle - chip - **Futures Prices**: The price of bottle - chip 2512 increased from 5684 to 5756, bottle - chip 2601 from 5662 to 5736, and bottle - chip 2602 from 5706 to 5778 [1] - **Spread**: PR12 - 01 decreased from 22 to 20, PR01 - 02 increased from - 44 to - 42 [1] - **Basis**: The PR主力基差 decreased by 64 [1] - **Position and Volume**: The bottle - chip主力持仓量 increased from 38465 to 39554, and the bottle - chip主力成交量 increased from 35817 to 43438 [1] - **Spot Price**: The bottle - chip华东现货价格 increased from 5730 to 5740, and the bottle - chip华南现货价格 increased from 5750 to 5790 [1] 2. Spot News Short - fiber - The short - fiber futures followed the raw materials and fluctuated strongly. Some factories' spot prices remained stable, while some increased. The discounts of traders generally decreased. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were mostly weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 48% as of 3:00 pm [1] Bottle - chip - The upstream raw material futures fluctuated. The quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories were mostly stable, with some local increases of 20 - 50 yuan. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was average, and the price gap between different brands was large. Orders from November to January were mostly traded at 5670 - 5700 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The short - fiber trend intensity was 0, and the bottle - chip trend intensity was 0, referring to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it offers short - term trend outlooks for various commodities in the black series: - **High - level Repeated**: Iron ore, coke, and coking coal [2] - **Wide - range Fluctuations**: Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [2] - **Oscillatory Repeated**: Logs [2] 2. Core Views The report presents the latest market data and news for different commodities in the black series, including futures and spot prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price spreads. It also provides a short - term trend outlook for each commodity, with a trend strength index ranging from - 2 to 2, where all commodities in this report have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral view. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Futures Price**: The closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 17.0 yuan/ton (-2.19%) [4]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices decreased, while domestic ore prices remained stable. The price of lump ore (65%) dropped by 14.0 yuan/ton to 878.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and some inter - contract spreads changed slightly [4]. - **News**: In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year - on - year [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures Price**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,034 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.20%); the HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.34%) [7]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in some regions increased slightly, while hot - rolled coil prices decreased slightly [7]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and some inter - contract spreads changed [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%) from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative steel imports decreased by 11.9% year - on - year. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data also showed changes [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Futures Price**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts decreased. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was 5526 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot Price**: The price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese was 5620 yuan/ton. The price of semi - coke increased by 60 yuan/ton to 820 yuan/ton [11]. - **Price Spread**: The basis, inter - contract spreads, and cross - commodity spreads changed [11]. - **News**: The starting price of lump coal for semi - coke raw materials increased, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in some regions were reported. The inventory of manganese ore in ports changed, and the quotes of manganese ore suppliers for December increased [11][12][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Futures Price**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1270 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (-1.6%); the J2601 coke futures contract closed at 1756.5 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.1%) [14]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of most coking coal and coke varieties remained stable, with a few showing small changes. For example, the arrival price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1545 yuan/ton [14]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and inter - contract spreads changed [14]. - **News**: In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year - on - year [15]. Logs - **Futures Price**: The prices of different log futures contracts showed small fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 778.5 yuan, down 0.1% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the positions of some contracts increased slightly [17]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and inter - contract spreads changed [17]. - **News**: Starting from November 10, 2025, China will resume importing logs from the United States [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Medium to long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Sell call options [1][9] - Copper: Exit long positions at high levels or range - bound short - term trading [1][12] - Aluminum: Suggest buying on dips [1] - Nickel: Suggest waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies [1][18] - Tin: Range trading [1][19] - Gold: Range trading [1][20] - Silver: Range trading [1][20] - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 4700 level pressure for 01 contract [22][23] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 2400 level pressure for 01 contract [24] - Soda ash: Bearish for 01 contract [1][34] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 6500 level pressure [26][27] - Rubber: Range - bound, focus on the 15000 level support [27][28] - Urea: Range - bound [29] - Methanol: Range - bound [30][32] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound, L2601 focus on 6900 support, PP2601 focus on 6600 support [32][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [37] - PTA: Low - level range - bound, focus on the 4400 - 4700 range [37][38] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [1][38] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [1][38] - Hogs: Rebound under pressure [1][40] - Eggs: Rebound under pressure [1][41] - Corn: Bottom - building in a range [44][46] - Soybean meal: Rebound from low levels [1][46] - Oils: Palm oil weak, soybean oil strong, high - level adjustment [47][52] Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiations, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session. The stock index and bond market may enter a range - bound stage. The black building materials market has a tight supply - demand pattern and rising prices. The non - ferrous metals market is affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and policies, with different trends for each metal. The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure due to factors like high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock markets also show different trends based on supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [5][8][12] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index: In a range - bound stage, waiting for new changes at the end of the year. Consider the rotation of technology mainlines and the impact of inflation recovery. Medium to long - term optimistic, buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: In a stage without a clear core logic. Focus on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions. Range - bound [5] Black building materials - Double - coking coal: Market shows tight supply - demand and rising prices. Range - bound [7][8] - Rebar: Low - valuation, with limited downside space. Range - bound, consider buying on dips for RB2601 at 2975 - 3000 [8] - Glass: Supply decreases, but demand is weak. Suggest selling call options for 01 contract [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: High - level range - bound. Supply is tight, but high prices suppress demand. Consider exiting long positions at high levels or range - bound short - term trading [12][13] - Aluminum: High - level range - bound. Supply and demand are both affected by multiple factors. Suggest waiting and seeing [13][15] - Nickel: Range - bound. Supply may be loose, and demand is weak. Suggest waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies [18] - Tin: Range - bound. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. Focus on the 27 - 29.5 million yuan/ton range for the 12 - contract [19][20] - Gold and silver: Range - bound. Affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, employment, and interest - rate expectations. Focus on the specified contract ranges [20][21] Energy and chemical - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. Focus on the 4700 level pressure for 01 contract [22][23] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias. Affected by alumina inventory and supply. Focus on the 2400 level pressure for 01 contract [24][26] - Soda ash: Bearish for 01 contract. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak [34][36] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand. Focus on the 6500 level pressure [26][27] - Rubber: Range - bound. Supply decreases seasonally, and demand is stable. Focus on the 15000 level support [27][28] - Urea: Range - bound. Supply decreases, and demand increases. Focus on the 1600 - 1700 range for 01 contract [29] - Methanol: Range - bound. Supply is tight in some areas, and demand is weak. Focus on the 2000 - 2330 range for 01 contract [30][32] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound. Supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. L2601 focus on 6900 support, PP2601 focus on 6600 support [32][33] Cotton - spinning - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound. Affected by global supply - demand and Sino - US trade negotiations [37] - PTA: Low - level range - bound. Affected by oil prices and supply - demand. Focus on the 4400 - 4700 range [37][38] - Apples: Weakly range - bound. New - season trading is in the later stage, and demand is weak [38] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound. Procurement is inactive, and prices are weak [38] Agricultural livestock - Hogs: Rebound under pressure. Supply is high in the short - term, and capacity reduction is slow in the long - term. Different strategies for different contracts [40] - Eggs: Rebound under pressure. Supply is high in the long - term, and demand is weak. Different strategies for different contracts [41][43] - Corn: Bottom - building in a range. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is weak. Focus on the 2050 - 2170 range for 01 contract [44][46] - Soybean meal: Rebound from low levels. Affected by US soybean supply - demand and domestic压榨 profit. Consider relevant strategies [46] - Oils: Palm oil weak, soybean oil strong, high - level adjustment. Affected by factors such as supply - demand and policies. Focus on support levels and consider arbitrage strategies [47][52]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 4 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 1万吨 ， . 2万吨 ， | 环比减少5 | 环比有所减少9 74% . . | 00% 。 . 需求持续低迷 | . | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为25 . | 9万吨 处于低位 ， | ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | 电池片亏损 | 组件盈利 ， | ； | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the apparent demand for rebar decreased week - on - week, rebar production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same - period level after a significant increase and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices showed signs of weakness, and iron ore prices hit a recent low. Future steel mills are expected to cut production, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. [2] - For the iron ore sector, the sample steel mills' hot - metal production continued to decline week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to fall this week. With the decline in steel mills' profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. The global iron ore shipment has declined from its high, and the port inventory increase during the consumption peak season and slow inventory depletion of steel products are suppressing the market sentiment. The futures price faces a correction pressure. [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and demand**: Rebar's apparent demand, production, and inventory all decreased. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased. Coke and coking coal supported costs, but steel mills' profit decline may lead to production cuts. [2] - **Technical analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band. [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and wait patiently to go long at low prices after stabilization for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low. [2] - **Related data**: Include prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and trading volume data. For example, the rebar main contract closing price was 3034 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and 2.32% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The sample steel mills' hot - metal production decreased, and steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing iron ore prices. [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipment declined from its high, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decrease after some time. [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 - contract futures price has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10 - day moving average, hitting a three - month low, and is currently mainly supported by the lower Bollinger Band. [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and wait patiently to go long at low prices after price stabilization. [5] - **Related data**: Include prices, basis, spreads, shipment, arrival volume, inventory, and other data. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 760.5 yuan/dry ton, down 4.94% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 14898.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 356.35 tons. The average daily port clearance volume was 335.55 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons. [7] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38 percentage points. The average daily hot - metal output was 234.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 tons. [7] - The total urban inventory of steel was 933.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 tons. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Soda Ash**: Last week, soda ash production decreased by 10,700 tons week - on - week, the manufacturer's shipment rate dropped by 3.14%, and the upstream manufacturer's inventory increased by 12,200 tons. Some soda ash enterprises reduced their loads, and production slightly decreased. The inventory accumulation slowed down. Recently, the supply of soda ash has remained at a high level with narrow fluctuations. Although the enterprise profit has continued to shrink, there has been no significant production cut, and the supply pressure remains high. The daily melting volume of downstream glass has remained low, the improvement in soda ash demand is limited, and the manufacturer's inventory is difficult to deplete. The high supply has hit market confidence, and the futures market is under pressure and operating weakly. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1160 - 1280 [7]. - **Glass**: Last week, 4 coal - fired production lines were shut down, and 1 previously ignited production line started to produce glass. The weekly开工率 and weekly supply decreased. Affected by the news of the technological transformation and shutdown of production lines in the Shahe area, the market production and sales improved, and the manufacturer's inventory continued to decline. Currently, glass is dragged down by the weak real estate market, and the demand outlook is not optimistic. The market expects a reduction in supply. It is expected that there is still room for adjustment and repair in the industry's supply - demand relationship. However, the short - term peak - season consumption is lower than expected, the inventory remains high, and later the consumption will gradually enter the off - season, so the improvement in the supply - demand contradiction may be limited. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1050 - 1160 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies - **Soda Ash** - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, including 814,600 tons of light soda ash and 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 39,200 tons, a rise of 2.34%. The production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, and the inventory of some enterprises increased [7]. - **Supply**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 74,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 tons, a decline of 1.41%. The production of light soda ash was 33,121 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41,480 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. Some enterprises reduced their loads, and the supply decreased slightly [7]. - **Demand**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,390 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.14%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65 percentage points. During the week, the soda ash enterprise equipment fluctuated slightly, the production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, the inventory of some enterprises increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate decreased slightly [7]. - **Glass** - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes, a decline of 4.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.05%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared with the previous period [8]. - **Supply**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.1261 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.87% [8]. - **Profit**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 172.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 78.10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.65 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.77 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86 yuan/ton [8]. - **Demand**: As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing orders were divided this period. The average order days of enterprises in the north increased slightly, and the proportion of some engineering orders increased. In the south, most orders remained flat or even decreased in some cases, and the overall competition was still fierce [8]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The mid - stream is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [10]. - **Flat Glass**: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and auxiliary materials (clarifiers, color - mixing agents), as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream is flat glass (float glass, other methods such as calendering), and the downstream includes deep - processed products such as tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, and coated glass, which are mainly used in the real estate (75%), automotive (18%), and electronic and electrical (7%) industries [11]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures and Spot Prices** - **Glass**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1091, and the North China basis was 39 yuan/ton [15]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 1210, and the North China basis was 90 yuan/ton [18]. - **Contract Spread** - **Glass**: As of November 7, 2025, the FG1 - 5 spread closed at - 134 yuan/ton. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 7, 2025, the SA1 - 5 spread closed at - 84 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes, a decline of 4.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.05%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days compared with the previous period. The inventory in major regions such as North China, East China, South China, and Central China decreased [24]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7142 million tons, including 814,600 tons of light soda ash and 899,600 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 39,200 tons, a rise of 2.34%. The production and sales of enterprises were relatively balanced, and the inventory of some enterprises increased [33]. 3.5 Supply - Side - **Glass**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.1261 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.87% [37]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 74,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 tons, a decline of 1.41%. The production of light soda ash was 33,121 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 41,480 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. Some enterprises reduced their loads, and the supply decreased slightly. As of November 6, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was - 43.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.80 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash in the combined - soda process was - 174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [47][50]. 3.6 Demand - Side - **Glass**: As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing orders were divided this period. The average order days of enterprises in the north increased slightly, and the proportion of some engineering orders increased. In the south, most orders remained flat or even decreased in some cases, and the overall competition was still fierce [54]. - **Soda Ash**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,390 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.14%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65 percentage points. The enterprise production and sales were relatively balanced, the inventory of some enterprises increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate decreased slightly [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to the game between high inventory accumulation and Indonesian risks. Stainless steel has a weak reality that drags down steel prices and is in a short - term low - level oscillation. Industrial silicon has a strong upward drive for the disk due to warehouse receipt depletion. Polysilicon is in a policy vacuum period and the disk returns to fundamentals. Lithium carbonate may face downward risks from mine resumption. Palm oil may see the end of short - term negative news with the MPOB report next week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in November. Soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation without an independent upward drive. Soybean meal is oscillating, waiting for the guidance of the USDA supply - demand report. Soybean No.1 is oscillating due to repeated trade sentiment. Corn requires attention to the spot market. Sugar requires attention to policy changes. Cotton is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the near term. Live pigs are accumulating contradictions and waiting for spot confirmation. Peanuts are facing supply pressure [2][4][5][28][69][80]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and supply - demand imbalance on the one hand, and uncertainties in Indonesian policies on the other hand, result in a low - level oscillation. The replacement of nickel plates with ferronickel in the nickel alloy end and the expected increase in pure nickel production limit the upward elasticity. However, the uncertainty of Indonesian supply governance policies makes short - sellers lack confidence [4]. - Stainless steel: The lack of upward drive in the real fundamentals, with weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle, high upstream inventory, and a large number of expiring warehouse receipts, leads to a low - level oscillation. Although the supply is elastic, the cost decline also limits the downward space [5]. - **Inventory Tracking** - Refined nickel: On November 7, the 27 - warehouse social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1934 tons to 50,680 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1002 tons to 253,104 tons [6]. - Stainless steel: In October, SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. On November 6, SMM stainless steel social inventory slightly decreased to 946,000 tons, and the total social inventory of steel - linked stainless steel increased by 0.29% week - on - week [8]. - **Market News** - There are multiple events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of a nickel mine by the forestry working group, sanctions on mining companies, and regulations on the approval of RKAB. In addition, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Trump has proposed additional tariffs on China [9][10][11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon: The disk price is strongly oscillated, and the spot price has increased. It closed at 9220 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - Polysilicon: The disk center has declined, and the spot price is stable, closing at 53,215 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a slight reduction in weekly industry inventory. The southwest region has reduced production, and the overall output in November - December is expected to decrease. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone, but the demand may decline in the future [29][30]. - Polysilicon: The short - term weekly output has decreased, and the upstream inventory is flat. The demand side has a decrease in silicon wafer production scheduling [30][31]. - **Market Outlook** - Industrial silicon: The depletion of warehouse receipts provides upward drive for the disk. It is recommended to take a long - position approach when the price drops [33]. - Polysilicon: In the policy vacuum period, the disk trades based on supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices [33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures contract oscillates widely in the range of 77,000 - 83,000 tons. The 2511 contract closes at 80,460 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1160 yuan/ton, and the 2601 contract closes at 82,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1520 yuan/ton [69]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Supply: The weekly output increases to 21,534 tons, and the inventory decreases by 3405 tons to 124,000 tons. The cost of lithium carbonate may increase due to the supplementary payment of mining rights transfer income [70]. - Demand: In October 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 10GW/29.4GWh of energy storage system and EPC general contracting bidding, showing a decline compared to September [70]. - **Market Outlook** - There is a risk of price decline after the resumption of mines in Jiangxi. The futures main - contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [71]. 3.4 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The market is worried about high production in Malaysia in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract decreased by 1.59% last week, with a possible short - term stabilization [80]. - Soybean oil: In a large - supply environment, it follows the oil and fat sector to oscillate weakly, but its strong export demand makes it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties, and the 01 contract increased by 0.39% last week [80]. - **This Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: Malaysia may have high production in the fourth quarter, and the inventory is expected to be high. Indonesia has large export pressure in November. Although it may show a short - term end of negative news, the market has not fully priced in the high production in November - December. The inventory at the origin is expected to increase, and the price needs additional demand stimulation to stabilize [81]. - Soybean oil: The production situation in Brazil is good, and the supply is large. The domestic soybean arrival is sufficient, and the export demand may maintain the monthly de - stocking process. It is mainly for long - allocation but has no independent upward drive [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the view on offset printing paper is mainly range-bound. The paper mill's price increase letters have generally been implemented with an increase of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, which is generally positive for the futures and spot markets. The supply and demand in the spot market next week will remain basically stable, with the paper mills still having the intention to support prices, but there is no obvious positive support on the demand side, and the industry players are more on the sidelines. It is expected that the double-offset paper market will remain stable overall next week [53]. Summary by Directory Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of double-offset paper decreased by 0.66% compared with last Thursday, and the trend changed from rising to falling this week. At the end of last month, some dealers stocked up in advance, and the paper mill's inventory decreased slightly this week, but the overall pressure still exists [5]. - This week, the operating load rate of double-offset paper was 51.40%, a month-on-month increase of 0.16 percentage points, and the increase rate this week narrowed by 2.47 percentage points month-on-month. Most production lines were stable this week, and the overall industry operation changed little [5]. - Due to the continuous rise in wood chip costs, Asia Pulp & Paper officially announced that starting from now, the acceptance price of hardwood pulp will be increased by 150 yuan/ton [5]. Market Trends - The daily average price of 70g high-white double-offset paper on November 7 was 4430 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday and last week, with a month-on-month and year-on-year change of 0 [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various brands of 70g double-offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets on November 7 were the same as those on October 31, with a month-on-month change of 0. The pre-tax and after-tax revenues remained unchanged, while the pre-tax and after-tax costs increased, and the pre-tax and after-tax gross profits decreased. The closing prices of double-offset paper futures OP2601.SHF and OP2603.SHF increased, and the 1 - 3 spread increased by 2. The basis in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased [10]. Supply and Demand Data - **Industry Capacity**: In 2024, the domestic double-offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. - **Weekly Output and Operation**: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry output was 184.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 52.5% [25]. - **Enterprise Weekly Sales and Inventory**: This week, the domestic double-offset paper industry sales were 187.1 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 377.0 thousand tons [30]. - **Imports and Exports**: In August, the domestic double-offset paper import volume was about 11 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 56 thousand tons [37]. - **Inventory Situation**: From the monthly sample inventory data, the social inventory and enterprise inventory continued to accumulate in October [43]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [49]. Market Judgment - **Supply**: Domestically, this week, the domestic double-offset paper industry output was 184.1 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 52.5%. In terms of imports, in September, the domestic double-offset paper import volume was about 11 thousand tons, continuing the previous low import volume [53]. - **Demand**: Domestically, this week, the domestic double-offset paper sales were 187.1 thousand tons. In terms of exports, in September, the domestic double-offset paper export volume was about 56 thousand tons [53]. - **Viewpoint**: From the market perspective, last week, the double-offset paper futures market fluctuated in the range of 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton, with little overall change. Looking at the spot market prices, the paper mill's price increase letters have generally been implemented with an increase of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, which is generally positive for the futures and spot markets. From the supply and demand in the spot market, the operation of the double-offset paper market next week will be basically stable, with individual production lines in Jiangsu Province shut down. As the tendering work continues, the paper mills still have the intention to support prices, but there is no obvious positive support on the demand side, and the industry players are more on the sidelines. It is expected that the double-offset paper market will remain stable overall next week [53]. - **Valuation**: From the basis perspective, the current spot price is at a premium to the futures price. From the perspective of delivery costs, the expected profit of paper mills from selling for delivery cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market. From the perspective of production costs, enterprises still have profits in production, but it is close to some relatively high marginal costs, and the overall valuation is still low [53]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is mainly range-bound, and the strategy is mainly range operation [53].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Propylene, Plastic, Benzene, Styrene, PTA, Short Fiber, Methanol, PVC**: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for upward/downward trends, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - **PX, Ethylene Glycol, Urea, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Glass**: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current trading floor, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally under pressure, with many products facing issues such as supply - demand imbalances, high inventories, and weakening demand. Most products are recommended for reverse arbitrage strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as load changes in each link of the industrial chain, supply - side contractions, and demand - side improvements [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - **Propylene**: The main futures contract weakened narrowly during the day. International oil price declines affected market sentiment, and demand was difficult to boost significantly due to production enterprises' price concessions and some downstream device load - reduction or shutdown [2] - **Plastic and Polypropylene**: Their main futures contracts were weakly sorted during the day. For polyethylene, the ex - factory prices of petrochemical enterprises were basically stable, but downstream purchasing was cautious. For polypropylene, the e - commerce festival stocking was nearing the end, demand was lower than expected, and new device output was expected to increase supply pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price in East China rose slightly. Port inventories increased, and production increased. There are short - term consolidations and medium - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm [3] - **Styrene**: The main futures contract was sorted narrowly. The cost - side support was insufficient, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. The inventory was still relatively high, and the price continued to be weak [3] Polyester - **PTA**: PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future, and reverse arbitrage is recommended, with attention to load changes in each link of the industrial chain [5] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output increased slightly, and port inventories increased significantly. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a continued inventory accumulation expectation, with reverse arbitrage as the main strategy [5] - **Short Fiber**: There is no new investment pressure, and the spot pattern is good, but raw material price increases squeeze profits slightly. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials after mid - November [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Demand weakens with the cooling weather, the processing margin is under pressure, and the long - term problem is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - **Methanol**: The futures price remained in a low - level shock. Iran's gas restriction time was unexpected, and port inventories were high, with a continued inventory accumulation trend expected. Downstream demand is expected to enter the off - season [6] - **Urea**: The futures price rose significantly due to the news of new export quotas. Autumn fertilizer demand is coming to an end, and production enterprises' inventory accumulation is small. Attention should be paid to the implementation details of the export policy [6] Chlor - Alkali - **PVC**: Supply pressure continued, and inventory accumulation continued. Demand declined due to weather, and exports were affected. It may operate at a low level [7] - **Caustic Soda**: It oscillated at a low level. Liquid caustic soda inventory decreased this week, but downstream demand was average, and it is running weakly [7] Soda Ash - Glass - **Soda Ash**: It rose narrowly. Supply was high, and inventories remained high. Attention should be paid to the upward trend of light soda ash and downstream restocking willingness [8] - **Glass**: It was weakly sorted during the day. After the production suspension in Shahe, dealers' purchasing enthusiasm increased, and inventory decreased. Cost increased, and the decline space is expected to be limited [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - PTA: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PVC: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally under pressure, with many products facing issues such as weak demand, high inventory, and cost - profit imbalances. Different products have different trends and investment strategies, mainly including anti - arbitrage operations and attention to load changes in each link of the industrial chain [2][3][5] Grouped by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures weakened slightly during the day. International oil price decline dampened market sentiment, and demand was hard to boost significantly [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures consolidated weakly. For polyethylene, trading volume needed to be released; for polypropylene, the supply - side pressure was expected to increase [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of benzene futures fluctuated narrowly, and the market was in short - term consolidation with medium - term negative factors. Attention should be paid to the port inventory accumulation rhythm [3] - Styrene futures consolidated narrowly. The cost support was insufficient, and the price continued to be weak [3] Polyester - PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. PTA might accumulate inventory in the future, and anti - arbitrage was the main strategy [5] - Ethylene glycol supply was expected to increase, with a continued inventory accumulation expectation, and anti - arbitrage was the main strategy [5] - Short fiber had a good spot pattern, but the profit was slightly squeezed. Its price would fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakened, and the cost was the main driver [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. High port inventory and weak demand suppressed the market, and the market was expected to be weak [6] - Urea futures rose significantly. The market was boosted by export news, but caution was needed when chasing up [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continued to accumulate inventory and ran at a low level due to high supply and weak demand [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated at a low level. The downstream demand was general, and the supply was high [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose slightly. The supply was high, and the inventory was at a high level. It was expected to be hard to decline in the short term [8] - Glass ran weakly. Cost increase limited the decline space, and attention should be paid to the end - of - year rush - to - work [8]