Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a rebound, testing the 157.50 level, despite verbal interventions from Japanese authorities, indicating ongoing pressure on the yen and a strong dollar driven by reduced risk aversion in the market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The latest USD/JPY exchange rate is reported at 157.3900, with a gain of 0.15% [1] - Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno expressed concerns over the recent "one-sided and rapid" fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate, emphasizing the need for vigilance against excessive volatility [1] - The yen has recently fallen below the 157 mark, reaching its lowest level since January of this year, attributed to weakened expectations for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily RSI for USD/JPY is in a slightly overbought zone, which may limit the bullish sentiment and lead to a consolidation or moderate pullback [2] - If the exchange rate adjusts, the 156.60 area may serve as the first support level; a drop below 156.00 could trigger further technical selling pressure [2] - Should the market continue to rise, the 157.50 area is identified as a key resistance level, with potential upward movement towards 158.00 and higher resistance at approximately 158.50, aiming for the January high of 159.00 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. However, in the short - term, the unclear prospects of a December interest rate cut will lead to continued fluctuations and adjustments, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and dips are considered opportunities to buy. Resistance and support levels are provided for London gold and silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - On Wednesday, precious metal prices fluctuated slightly higher. Although NVIDIA's earnings report was slightly higher than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations declined. The VIX of US stocks and the MOVE index of US bonds both rose, and Bitcoin continued to fall, increasing the demand for precious metals and US dollars as a hedge. The market is focused on the US September non - farm payrolls report to be released on Thursday night. The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences, with many thinking it inappropriate to cut rates in December. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4078.3 per ounce (+0.29%), and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [1]. 3.2降息预期与基金持仓 - Interest rate cut expectations have declined, with only a 30% probability of a December rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 67.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 32.8%. Long - term fund positions: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.29 tons to 1043.72 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 8.46 tons to 15226.88 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16 tons to 547.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 47.7 tons to 774.7 tons as of the week ending November 14 [2]. 3.3本周关注 - In terms of data, focus on the补发 of US government data after the restart, especially the US September non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, several Fed officials will give speeches on Friday [3]. 3.4贵金属期现价格表 - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [5]. 3.5库存持仓表 - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [13]. 3.6股债商汇总览 - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the RMB, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread [19].

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,043.72 tons of gold as of November 19, 2025, reflecting an increase of 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The gold price experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of $4,132.59 per ounce before settling at $4,077.74 per ounce, marking a gain of $10.30 or 0.25% [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 19, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total gold holdings stand at 1,043.72 tons, an increase of 2.29 tons from the previous day [5]. - The report indicates a continuous rise in gold prices, with the highest intraday price reaching $4,132.59 per ounce [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Gold prices initially retreated in the Asian market but remained above the $4,050 per ounce mark, followed by a significant rise during European trading hours due to heightened market risk aversion and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5]. - The subsequent decline in gold prices was attributed to a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which peaked at 100.23, the highest level in two weeks, thereby suppressing gold price movements [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut in December, with some members suggesting that a 25 basis point cut may not be suitable [6]. - The delay in the release of key economic data due to a government shutdown has led to increased uncertainty among policymakers regarding labor market and inflation trends [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The upward trend in gold prices remains intact, although buyer interest appears cautious, as indicated by technical indicators showing a neutral to slightly bullish bias [7]. - Key support levels for gold prices are identified at $4,050, with further support at $4,000 and the November 4 low of $3,930 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is stagnant at a high level, and there is no basis for independent upward movement. It is recommended to conduct range trading and sell call options. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound, with the supply peak of foreign mines passed and the demand for iron ore showing a downward trend. The inventory tends to accumulate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has continued to increase month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has decreased significantly month - on - month. The peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease month - on - month in the future [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has increased month - on - month mainly due to the full - production resumption in Hebei after the lifting of production restrictions. There are new blast furnace overhauls and restarts. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability continue to decline due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. Considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand still has resilience [3]. Price - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures operates in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 铝期货方面：2025-11-19日沪铝主力合约开于21485元/吨，收于21570元/吨，较上一交易日变化25元/吨，最 高价达21620元/吨，最低价达到21435元/吨。全天交易日成交202981手，全天交易日持仓347833手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.6万吨，较上一期变化2.5万吨，仓单库存69484 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存546075吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-19SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得321美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-19氧化铝主力合约开于2776元/吨，收于2740元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-53 元/吨，变化幅度-1.90%，最高价达到2794元/吨，最低价为2738元/吨。全天交易日成交302092手，全天交易日 持仓426124手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-1 ...

贵金属日报 2025-11-20 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.53 %，报 935.42 元/克，沪银涨 0.63 %，报 12035.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4090.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 51.21 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.13%，美元指数报 100.10 ； 美联储票委表态和会议纪要均呈现鹰派倾向，贵金属价格昨夜冲高回落，今晨英伟达所公布的 财报超市场预期提升风偏，银价表现强于黄金。 今日凌晨公布的美联储会议纪要显示，FOMC 成员在后续利率路径方面产生了重大的分歧，数位 联储官员（包含不具备投票权的部分地方联储主席）反对本次降息决定，同时有部分支持降息 的官员表示可以接受利率不变。"许多"联储成员认为在 12 月进行降息操作缺乏依据，且这部 分官员的数量超过了认为在 12 月议息会议中降息是"合适"的官员数量。 联储主席热门候选人，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示失业率略高于均衡 ...

技术层面，12月黄金期货多头的下一个上涨目标是突破每盎司4398美元的历史高位。空头的下一个短期 下跌目标是跌破每盎司4000美元的强劲技术支撑价位。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格上涨54.4美分，收于每盎司51.065美元，涨幅为1.08%。 新华财经纽约11月19日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价 19日上涨11.8美元，收于每盎司4078.3美元，涨幅为0.29%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 黄金、白银价格当日走高，但已从日内高点回落。得益于美国股市震荡以及即将公布的重要美国经济数 据，本周中期避险需求温和。美元指数当日上涨也抑制了黄金、白银早盘的强劲涨幅。 美国劳工部20日发布就业报告，将更清晰地展现美国利率前景。美国各机构已开始陆续公布因联邦政府 停摆而延迟的经济数据。市场担心即将公布的经济数据可能会限制美联储进一步放松货币政策的能力， 政策制定者对此也持怀疑态度。对科技股估值过高的担忧也令市场风险情绪承压。 市场分析人士认为，导致降息预期下降的部分原因是长达43天的政府停摆导致数据匮乏，部分原因是市 场对持续贸易紧张局势可能带来的通胀影响仍存担忧。克利夫兰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant sell-off in global markets, driven by factors such as tightening dollar liquidity, delayed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, and skepticism surrounding the AI bubble. Despite these challenges, there is a belief that the market will stabilize and present investment opportunities in the future [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - A notable sell-off has affected various asset classes, including U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies, leaving investors with limited safe havens [1][3]. - The primary drivers of the recent downturn include: 1. Tightening dollar liquidity due to U.S. government shutdown concerns, Treasury General Account (TGA) replenishment, and quantitative tightening (QT) [3]. 2. A significant drop in the market's expectation for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, from nearly 96% certainty to below 50% [3]. 3. Rising skepticism regarding the sustainability of the AI sector, as evidenced by a sharp increase in credit default swap spreads for companies like Oracle and CoreWeave [3][5]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that 54% of fund managers believe that companies are over-investing, with 45% citing the AI bubble as a major tail risk [5]. - Despite the negative sentiment, there is optimism regarding the liquidity situation, as the U.S. Treasury has begun to release funds, potentially alleviating market liquidity concerns [5][8]. - The article suggests that the current AI bubble may not be at its end, positing that if it were to burst now, it would be one of the smallest and shortest-lived tech bubbles in history [8]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Historical data indicates that the year of the U.S. midterm elections (2026) is typically marked by significant market volatility, with an average intra-year drawdown of -17.5% but a subsequent average return of +31.7% in the following year [11][13]. - The earnings outlook for major U.S. companies is showing strong recovery, with a notable increase in the earnings guidance momentum score for S&P 500 companies [13]. - In the Indian market, strong domestic capital inflows and a recovering earnings cycle are supporting stability, despite a modest year-to-date increase of 8% [16][17]. - European markets are also showing signs of improvement, with MSCI Europe index earnings per share (EPS) growth exceeding expectations, particularly in the technology and financial sectors [18]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The company maintains a "barbell" strategy for domestic markets, focusing on defensive positions in dividend and small-cap stocks while also investing in leading internet companies during market corrections [21].

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月19日电 本周伊始，国际现货金价震荡企稳。尤其是周一（11月18日），国际金价盘 中跌破4000美元关口后企稳回升，日涨0.54%。随着金价日K线走出带有长下影线的小阳线形态，短期 暂时守稳4000美元整数，预计或将维持震荡反复行情。 基本面上分析来看，美国政府停摆结束已告一段落，美联储降息预期降温成为抑制当前金价的最大影响 因素。近期，美联储官员的表态显示内部分歧进一步加深，美联储降息概率从早期的80%以上降至60% 左右，而随着多位美联储官员先后发表鹰派表态，市场对12月降息的预期进一步降低，特别是美联储副 主席杰斐逊明确表示"进一步降息需要缓慢推进"之后，市场对12月降息的押注一度降至40%左右。目前 虽有部分美联储官员仍然支持降息，但或仍将是"风险管理式"的预防性降息。 与此同时，地缘政治方面再现不确定性，特朗普暗示可能扩大在拉丁美洲的军事行动范围，这一表态可 能推升市场的避险需求。 综合而言，降息预期继续对短期金价形成压制作用，而地缘局势的紧张限制了金价的下行空间。从基本 面看短期金价将继续维持震荡横盘格局。不过，部分央行持续增持黄金，全球去美元化的货币重构背景 没 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin briefly fell below $90,000 this week due to cooling expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and continued outflows from ETFs, leading to market sentiment pressure [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in liquidity has further amplified the downward movement of Bitcoin prices [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that a rate cut in December is "not a done deal" [1] Group 2: Market Indicators - The market is closely monitoring labor data and leading indicators this week to assess whether the Bitcoin pullback is a short-term position adjustment or a broader shift in risk appetite [1]