1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy - chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][3][5][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy - chemical market shows an oscillating trend. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships are the main drivers of price fluctuations in various products. For example, geopolitical tensions affect oil prices, and supply changes impact the prices of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products [1][3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Thursday, oil prices moved up. WTI September contract rose by $0.78 to $66.03 per barrel (1.20% increase), Brent September contract rose by $0.67 to $69.18 per barrel (0.98% increase), and SC2509 closed at 507.1 yuan/barrel, up 2.8 yuan/barrel (0.56% increase). Geopolitical tensions persist. New regulations have halted oil exports from Kazakhstan through a consortium in the Russian Black Sea ports. The spot price of Labuan crude for September loading has climbed. Currently, oil prices are oscillating weakly, but geopolitical factors may increase price volatility. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US tariffs next week and OPEC+ production guidance [1] 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained flat at 2879 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 rose 0.59% to 3588 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to face pressure. Traders expect the arrival volume from Europe in July to increase by 30 - 40 tons compared to the previous month. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to hold the spread short position [3] 3.1.3 Asphalt - On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.28% to 3602 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased slightly. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries plan to increase production. However, refineries without crude oil quotas and those with maintenance plans will limit supply growth. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates with the cost of crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after oil prices stabilize [3][5] 3.1.4 Polyester - TA509 rose 1.38% to 4850 yuan/ton, EG2509 rose 1.1% to 4485 yuan/ton, and PX futures rose 1.4% to 6956 yuan/ton. Saudi MEG plants have restarted, and a Shanxi synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant plans to shut down for maintenance. The domestic polyester load is about 88.7%, the PTA load is 79.7%, and the ethylene glycol start - up rate has increased. The macro - environment is positive for the industry, and the end - market shows resilience. EG prices are supported by cost and reduced inventory expectations, while TA prices follow cost fluctuations [5] 3.1.5 Rubber - On Thursday, the main rubber contracts RU2509, NR, and BR all rose. Thailand's natural rubber exports increased in the first half of the year. Domestic tire enterprise start - up rates were mixed. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has affected rubber tapping in the northeastern part of Thailand. Typhoon Webb has brought less rainfall, but the region is still rainy. Rubber prices have risen recently due to raw material support and the macro - environment, but chasing high prices should be cautious [7] 3.1.6 Methanol - On Thursday, methanol prices were in different ranges in different regions. Iranian plant loads have recovered, and arrivals have increased. Downstream profit has improved, and inventory is expected to continue to increase. The market anticipates a reduction in coal supply, and methanol prices are oscillating strongly [7][9] 3.1.7 Polyolefins - On Thursday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range, and production profits varied. Polyolefins will gradually move towards a situation of strong supply and demand, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. If the cost does not drop significantly, the downside space for polyolefins is limited [9] 3.1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Enterprise start - up rates have recovered, demand has not improved significantly, but the fundamentals have not deteriorated further. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and the short - term market expectation is strong. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, basis rate, price changes, and historical quantile information of various energy - chemical products on July 24 and 23, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [10] 3.3 Market News - The market is concerned about trade negotiations. The US and Japan have reached a tariff agreement, and the US and the EU are moving towards a trade agreement. EIA data shows that last week, US crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased more than expected [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Price - The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [14][16][18] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32][34][38] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as the spread between fuel oil contracts 01 - 05, 09 - 01, etc. [47][49][52] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spread - The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between crude oil's internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [63][65][69] 3.4.5 Production Profit - The report presents the production profit charts of some products, such as the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and PP production profit [72][74][76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil fluctuated within a narrow range, the monthly spreads of the three major crude oil markets declined slightly, and global oil product inventories increased slightly. Policy-wise, the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the price cap on Russian oil. Iran may hold nuclear negotiations with major European powers next week, and whether to restart nuclear negotiations with the US depends on the US attitude. On the supply side, the Kurdish oilfield was attacked, and about 200,000 barrels per day of production is at risk of interruption. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories increased slightly, while US commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Diesel inventories at major global trading hubs continued to decline, reaching a historical low for the same period, and the European diesel crack spread led the profit growth on the product side. After Independence Day, US gasoline apparent demand declined significantly, and the global gasoline crack spread has been fluctuating recently. This week, global refinery profits strengthened on a week-on-week basis, and the product side remained relatively strong. In China, refinery operations fluctuated. After the increase in operations in June, gasoline and diesel inventories at refineries increased significantly, and refinery profits weakened on a week-on-week basis, leaving limited room for further boosting operations. In the current peak season of crude oil demand, the escalation of sanctions against Russia and the marginal tightening of Iranian crude oil supply support the crude oil inter-month structure, but the peak season factors have been relatively fully realized, and the monthly spreads have been in a fluctuating pattern recently. In the medium term, the absolute price of crude oil faces downward pressure due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the contradiction between non-OPEC production and the near-term diesel inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Iran has agreed to accept a technical delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which will visit Iran in two to three weeks [3]. - The IEA said that global liquefied natural gas supply will see the largest increase since 2019 next year [3]. - The US Energy Information Administration announced that the US has become a net exporter of Nigerian crude oil for the first time [4]. - Many places in Canada have decided to build new cross-provincial oil pipelines, stating "We can no longer rely on the Americans" [4]. - Mexico plans to issue bonds worth $7 - 10 billion to support Pemex [4]. - The US Treasury Department will impose sanctions on the oil smuggling and evasion network related to the Houthi rebels, targeting entities and individuals in Yemen and the UAE [4]. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report, US crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day in the week ending July 18 [4]. - The EIA report showed that US domestic crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day in the week ending July 18 [4]. - The EIA report indicated that commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a decrease of 0.75% [4]. - The EIA report stated that the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.576 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.01% [4]. - The EIA report showed that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels, a decrease of 0.05% in the week ending July 18 [4]. - The EIA report indicated that US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.976 million barrels per day in the week ending July 18, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [4]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased by 0.26%, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly by 1.17%. In China, refinery production of gasoline decreased while that of diesel increased, and inventories of gasoline increased while those of diesel decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries declined on a week - on - week basis [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data is bullish due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, casting doubt on the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at its peak within the year [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 418.993 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels; Cushing inventories increased by 455,000 barrels; strategic reserve inventories decreased by 200,000 barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels; distillate inventories increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day; processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3] - US total crude oil chain inventories decreased by 5.353 million barrels; the four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for crude oil increased by 314,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 180,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillate decreased by 112,750 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased slightly [3] Report Review - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventories declined more than expected. US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year. Refinery operating rates remained high, increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%. The continuous rebound of US weekly crude oil exports also contributed to the decline in inventories [4] - Although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillates, which the market is more concerned about, declined. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the levels of the 2020 COVID - 19 year [6] - After the release of this week's report, oil prices had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7]

欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔23日表示，如果欧盟与美国的贸易谈判破裂，并且美国对欧盟商品征收 高关税，欧盟计划迅速对价值近1000亿欧元的美国商品加征关税。 新华财经纽约7月23日电（记者刘亚南）国际油价23日在隔夜市场下跌。当日早盘窄幅盘整，午后跌幅 显著收窄，收盘时国际油价均小幅下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌6美分，收于每桶65.25美元，跌幅为 0.09%；9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌8美分，收于每桶68.51美元，跌幅为0.12%。 新加坡原油分析机构Vanda Insights分析师Vandana Hari表示，虽然过去三个交易日油价下跌看起来已经 消退，但美国与日本达成贸易协议的消息预计不会给油价带来多大上涨动力。 值得注意的是，上周美国库欣地区商业原油库存量为2190万桶，环比增加50万桶；上周美国战略原油储 备规模为4.025亿桶，环比减少20万桶；上周美国日均原油产量为1327.3万桶，环比下降10.2万桶。 美国石油学会在22日晚些时候发布的数据显示，上周美国商业原油库存环比下降57.7万桶，汽油库存下 降120万桶，而蒸馏油库存则显著增加348 ...

Group 1 - The article indicates that the EIA crude oil inventory, Cushing crude oil inventory, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory data will be released shortly [1]

Core Insights - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 577,000 barrels for the week ending July 18, compared to an increase of 839,000 barrels in the previous week [1] Inventory Data - U.S. API crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels [1] - The previous week's inventory showed an increase of 839,000 barrels [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes from the July monetary policy meeting at 09:30 [1] - A press conference regarding the foreign exchange income and expenditure data for the first half of the year will be held by the State Council Information Office at 15:00 [1] - Bank of England Governor Bailey and other officials will deliver speeches at 17:15 [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a welcome address at a regulatory meeting at 20:30 [1] - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July will be released at 22:00 [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will host a fireside chat at 01:00 the next day [1] - The last trading of NY crude oil August futures will be completed at 02:30 the next day [1] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 18 will be released at 04:30 the next day [1]

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia's crude oil inventory decreased by 2.622 million barrels in May, reaching a total of 140.91 million barrels [1] Group 1 - The data is sourced from the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) [1] - The decline in inventory indicates potential changes in supply dynamics within the oil market [1] - The current inventory level may influence global oil prices and trading strategies [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile trend [3]. Core View - Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season, the oil price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Geopolitical factors in the short - term are positive, while macro - financial factors are negative. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand still have a loosening trend, and the price center will move down [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,460 million barrels per day, an increase of 180 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In June 2025, OPEC's production increased by 21.9 - 42 million barrels per day compared to May, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production also increased [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different outlooks on demand. EIA expects the global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 to be 10,354 million barrels per day, an increase of 80 million barrels per day compared to 2024. IEA continues to lower the demand growth rate forecast [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: As of the week ending July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decline of 0.91%. There were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3]. - **Oil - Producing Countries' Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC plans to increase production by 55 million barrels per day in September and then start a new round of production increase of 166 million barrels per day. UAE aims to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day in 2027 [3]. - **Geopolitical Factors (Short - Term)**: The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th sanctions package against Russia, and Trump has put forward requirements for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. These measures may affect Russia's oil exports [3]. - **Macro - Financial Factors (Short - Term)**: Trump is promoting the collection of at least 15% - 20% tariffs in agreements with the EU, which may have a negative impact on the oil market [3]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, supported by the consumption peak - season expectation, the market shows a relatively strong oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand tend to be loose, and the price center will move down [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. For arbitrage, go long on SC2509 and short on SC2510 [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the impact of sanctions on Russia, international oil prices maintained a relatively strong oscillation. As of July 18, WTI crude oil rose by 2.25 US dollars per barrel (+3.38%), Brent crude oil rose by 2.12 US dollars per barrel (+3.09%), and SC crude oil rose by 10.4 yuan per barrel (+2.07%) [6]. - **Month - Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The month - spread strengthened, while the internal - external spread weakened [8]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - end performance was relatively strong [20]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of aviation kerosene was stable [23][33]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In June 2025, OPEC's production increased, and non - OPEC countries' production also increased. US weekly crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease in the week ending July 11 [53][79]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][89]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries increased, and the capacity utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units rebounded [106][115]. - **Macro - Financial**: The US dollar index rebounded, and US Treasury yields increased [137]. - **CFTC Position**: The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [147].

Group 1: Report Core View - Overnight crude oil oscillated and closed lower, with weakening momentum and a short - term bearish trend. Despite a temporary rebound due to improved risk appetite in the financial market, the overall tone is turning weak. Without new positive factors, there is a risk of further price decline [3] - Although it is the peak demand season from July to August, demand in China and the US has reached its peak with limited growth space and will face a seasonal decline, which is unfavorable for bulls [3] - EIA data shows that the operating rate and processing volume of US refineries are at their peak, and the demand for major oil products such as gasoline is weak, indicating that the peak - season logic may be over [3] - Global inventories are increasing, and the supply - demand balance is relatively stable. With OPEC+ increasing production and a decline in US demand after September, the fundamentals will weaken [3] - Geopolitical risks can only cause short - term disturbances, and there is a risk of a restart of the tariff war in trade negotiations [3] - The low inventory in the US is due to active destocking, and increased exports are squeezing OPEC+ market share, which may intensify future market competition [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - For the week ending July 11, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels (expected - 0.552 million barrels, previous value + 7.07 million barrels), strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 0.3 million barrels (previous value + 0.238 million barrels), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.213 million barrels (previous value + 0.464 million barrels), gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels (expected - 0.952 million barrels, previous value - 2.658 million barrels), and refined oil inventory increased by 4.173 million barrels (expected + 0.199 million barrels, previous value - 0.825 million barrels) [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.366 million barrels per day from the previous week, and crude oil exports increased by 0.761 million barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day [4] - The refinery operating rate was 93.9% (expected 94.5%, previous value 94.7%) [4] Group 3: EIA Weekly Data Review - The EIA data update showed a mixed situation, with an increase in transportation fuel inventory being more bearish, except for fuel oil whose inventory continued to hit multi - year lows [5] - US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels in a single week and is slightly below the 5 - year average. Refinery throughput decreased by 150,000 barrels per day, consistent with the 2024 seasonal normal level [5] - Fuel oil inventory decreased by 700,000 barrels, 27% lower than the 5 - year range; aviation fuel output remained high, driving a 570,000 - barrel increase in inventory in a single week [5] - As transportation fuel inventory continues to accumulate, the recent upward trend in refining profit margins along the US Gulf Coast may end, and gasoline and diesel prices may decline from current highs [6] Group 4: Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - Brent crude oil M + 2 was at $68.52 on July 16, down $0.19 from the previous day and $1.67 from the previous week [7] - WTI crude oil M + 2 was at $65.19 on July 16, down $0.18 from the previous day and $1.78 from the previous week [7] - SC crude oil M + 2 was at 504.7 yuan on July 16, down 2.3 yuan from the previous day and 6.3 yuan from the previous week [7] - Dubai crude oil M + 2 was at $66.89 on July 16, down $0.23 from the previous day and $1.35 from the previous week [7] - Oman crude oil M + 2 was at $69.99 on July 16, down $0.34 from the previous day and $1.72 from the previous week [7] - Murban crude oil M + 2 was at $69.81 on July 16, down $0.29 from the previous day and $1.68 from the previous week [7] - EFS spread M + 2 was at $1.63 on July 16, up $0.04 from the previous day and down $0.32 from the previous week [7] - Brent monthly spread (M + 2 - M + 3) was at $0.97 on July 16, up $0.04 from the previous day and down $0.18 from the previous week [7] - Oman monthly spread (M + 2 - M - 3) was at $1.63 on July 16, down $0.26 from the previous day and down $0.31 from the previous week [7] - Dubai monthly spread (M + 1 - M + 2) was at $0.82 on July 16, down $0.08 from the previous day and down $0.21 from the previous week [7] - SC monthly spread (M + 1 - M + 2) was at 10.2 yuan on July 16, down 2.7 yuan from the previous day and up 5.8 yuan from the previous week [7] - SC - Dubai (M + 2) was at $3.6658 on July 16, up $0.0699 from the previous day and up $2.1228 from the previous week [7] - SC - Oman (M + 2) was at $0.6058 on July 16, up $0.0599 from the previous day and up $2.6028 from the previous week [7]