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关税降级带动出口跳升、生产回暖
HTSC· 2025-05-19 04:40
证券研究报告 宏观 关税降级带动出口跳升、生产回暖 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 18 日│中国内地 国内周报 一周概览 5月12日中美发布联声明,将4月2日以来双方加征的125%关税降至34%, 并对其中 24%的关税暂停 90 天实施,仅加征 10%的关税。上周港口高频 指标显示出口活跃度较快回升,到港船舶数量同比由前一周的-11%回正至 1%,或显示抢出口和产能出海的需求有望继续支撑中国出口。出口需求亦 带动工业生产同比回暖,基建活动走强,但地产及建筑活动放缓。 高频经济活动跟踪 港口高频数据显示上周出口活跃度低位跳升,集装箱美线运价上涨,工业 生产及基建活动同比亦有回暖,地产成交同比增速回落。出行及消费方面, 上周 18 城地铁客运量同比上升 0.9%,乘用车零售同比回升 37.3%;工业 生产方面,焦化/高炉开工率同比回升 2.3/2.6 个百分点,水泥企业开工率同 比回升 6.2 个百分点;建筑钢材成交量同比仍在-21.1%的偏弱区间。出口方 面,HDET 高频指标显示 5 月 1-17 日出口或较 4 月回落,但上周降幅有所 改善。地产方面,44 城新房成交面积同比从前一周的 14.4%回落至 ...
宏观周报:关税战暂缓期,关注经济压力
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 04:30
关税战暂缓期,关注经济压力 市场分析 国内:需求待改善。1)货币政策:一季度货币政策执行报告提出央行将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策;四部门提 出全方位支持科技创新,大力投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技。2)经济数据:4月社融增量1.16万亿元,新增人民 币贷款2800亿元,M2-M1剪刀差扩大。3)风险因素:中美联合声明,对4月2日以来的关税分别采取取消、暂停和 保留措施。 海外:关税缓冲期。1)货币政策:鲍威尔表示正在重新评估其货币政策框架的"关键部分",美联储将对利率制定 框架调整;欧元区银行评估美联储在紧急情况下拒绝提供美元流动性的情况。2)经济数据:美国4月CPI同比2.3%; 4月PPI同比上涨2.4%;4月零售销售环比0.1%;4月财政预算盈余同比增长23%至2584亿美元。3)风险因素:特朗 普获卡塔尔1.2万亿美元"经济交换"承诺,沙特承诺向美国投资6000亿美元;印度提议对部分美国制造的产品征收 进口关税;伊朗称愿与美国达成协议。 策略 宏观周报 | 2025-05-18 512中美日内瓦联合声明显示两国之间的关税战进入到阶段性缓和阶段,有利于缓和经济压力。数据显示4月中国 CPI继续承压,信贷结 ...
黄金创下年内最差周度表现 市场人士:贵金属市场短期波动料加剧
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-19 00:47
Group 1 - The recent easing of international trade tensions has led to a rapid recovery in market risk appetite, resulting in a significant decline in gold prices, with London gold spot prices dropping 3.66% to $3202.2 per ounce and COMEX gold futures falling 3.72% to $3205 per ounce [2] - Analysts indicate that the adjustment in precious metal prices is primarily due to the unexpected extent of the easing in trade tensions, prompting a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier assets [2][3] - The geopolitical landscape has also contributed to the decline in gold prices, with expectations of improved U.S.-Iran relations and a reduction in tensions between India and Pakistan [3] Group 2 - Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1,300 contracts to 161,200 contracts, while the long-to-short ratio rebounded by 1.6% [3] - The outlook for precious metals remains mixed, with key resistance levels providing support, and expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy potentially limiting further price declines [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor changes in U.S. Treasury yields, as recent political disagreements have impacted market expectations significantly [5]
下周资本市场大事提醒:国家统计局将公布4月经济数据
news flash· 2025-05-18 14:19
Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release April economic data, including social retail sales, industrial value-added, and urban unemployment rate on May 19 [1] - Huawei will hold a launch event for the nova14 series and HarmonyOS computers on May 19 [1] - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will attend the Computex 2025 in Taipei and deliver a keynote speech on May 19 [1] Group 2 - Google will hold its annual I/O developer conference on May 20 [1] - CATL will be listed and start trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 20 [1] - The People's Bank of China will announce the May LPR quote on May 20 [1] Group 3 - The U.S. will release the preliminary May Markit Composite PMI on May 22 [1] - The Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches on May 21 [1] - Japan will announce April CPI on May 23 [1]
下周关注丨4月宏观经济数据将公布,这些投资机会最靠谱
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 02:08
Economic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will release key economic data for April on May 19, including industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales of consumer goods [2] - CICC estimates that the fiscal subsidy scale for the old-for-new policy exceeded 38 billion yuan in April, maintaining a strong impact on retail sales growth at 3.3 percentage points [2] - The retail sales of narrow passenger cars are expected to grow by 14.4% year-on-year in April, with overall retail sales growth projected at around 5.5% [2] Fuel Price Adjustment - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window is set for May 19 at 24:00, with a projected decrease of 240 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices [3] - Analysts predict a drop of approximately 0.18 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.2 yuan per liter for 0-octane diesel, resulting in savings of about 9 yuan for a full tank of 50 liters [3] LPR Announcement - The latest 1-year and 5-year LPR will be announced on May 20, with the previous rates at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively [4] - Following a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the policy interest rate, the LPR is expected to decrease by about 0.1 percentage points [4] Stock Unlocking - A total of 40 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked from May 19 to May 23, with 8 stocks having a market value exceeding 1 billion yuan [6] - The top three companies by unlocking market value are: SiTeWei-W (7.007 billion yuan), XinDian Software (4.865 billion yuan), and YanTian Port (4.459 billion yuan) [6][7] New Stock Issuance - Two new stocks will be issued next week: Guqi Wool Materials on May 19 and Zhongce Rubber on May 23 [10]
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-5-16)局势缓和 黄金继续遭遇抛售
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 11:22
Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a decrease in holdings to 927.62 tons, down by 8.89 tons from the previous trading day, amid fluctuating gold prices influenced by economic data and geopolitical tensions [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of May 15, the total holdings of SPDR Gold Trust stand at 927.62 tons [6]. - The holdings decreased by 8.89 tons compared to the previous trading day [6]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On May 15, spot gold prices fell to a low of $3120.34 per ounce, marking a drop of over 10% from the historical high of $3500 per ounce [6]. - Gold prices rebounded to close at $3239.61 per ounce, an increase of $62.48 or 1.97% after initially dropping [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.5% in April, the largest decline in five years, indicating that businesses absorbed some of the impacts of rising tariffs [6]. - Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.1% in April, suggesting consumers are beginning to cut back on spending amid rising prices and tariff concerns [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that poor U.S. economic data has led to a decline in the dollar, supporting a rebound in gold prices [7]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the lack of progress in peace negotiations involving Russia, is seen as favorable for gold [7]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that changes in economic conditions may lead to higher long-term interest rates, which could impact gold prices [7]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - Despite recovering above the $3200 mark, technical indicators remain negative, suggesting potential further declines in gold prices [7]. - Key support levels are identified at $3100 and $3060, with resistance at $3265 and $3300 [8].
早间看点:ITS马棕5月前15日出口增6.63%,NOPA美豆4月压榨量为1.902亿蒲高于预期-20250516
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 06:17
2025/5/16 10:09 【国富期货早间看点】ITS 5 15 6.63% NOPA 4 1.902 20250516 【国富期货早间看点】ITS马棕5月前15日出口增6.63% NOPA美豆4 月压榨量为1.902亿蒲高于预期 20250516 2025年05月16日 07:34 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜漆跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3846. 00 | -1. 61 | -0. 41 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 64. 62 | -1.87 | 0. 61 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 61. 69 | -1.91 | 0. 64 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1053. 25 | -2. 11 | 0. 05 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 296. 30 | 1. 47 | 0.99 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 49.32 | -5.52 | 0.00 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | ...
美国经济数据疲软,4月零售销售较上月大幅放缓,PPI意外下滑。受益于此,黄金上一交易日涨超1%,当前多头占比仍在六成以上。市场预计美伊将达成核协议,美油超跌近2.5%,后市情绪如何?欢迎前往“数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表”查看并订阅(数据每10分钟更新1次)
news flash· 2025-05-16 02:41
电话.1 ZOYO /470 香港恒生指数 69% 31% 标普500指数 35% 65% 纳斯达克指数 18% 82% 道琼斯指数 51% 49% 日经225指数 63% 37% 德国DAX40指 11% 89% 数 外汇 r 多头 |空头 欧元/美元 55% 45% 欧元/英镑 83% 17% 欧元/日元 40% 60% 欧元/澳元 31% 69% 英镑/美元 22% 78% 英镑/日元 39% 61% 美元/日元 47% 53% 美元/加元 42% 58% 美元/瑞郎 87% 13% 澳元/美元 75% 25% 澳元/日元 60% 40% 加元/日元 32% 68% 纽元/美元 63% 37% 纽元/日元 29% 71% 美元/离岸人 80% 20% 民币 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 美国经济数据疲软,4月零售销售较上月大幅放缓,PPI意外下滑。受益于此,黄金上一交易日涨超1%,当前多头占比仍在六成 以上。市场预计美伊将达成核协议,美油超跌近2.5%,后市情绪如何?欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅(数据每 10分钟更新1次) ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250516
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:29
国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年05月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:短期利多兑现,上涨驱动放缓 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁:主产区减产集中,硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:原料价格继续探涨,锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:铁水下行,宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:铁水下行,宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤:煤矿库存增加,震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 16 日 铁矿石:短期利多兑现,上涨驱动放缓 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 736. 5 | -0.5 | -0. 07% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(于) | 持仓变动(手) | | ...