2025年4月14日-18日 本周盘面盘点 0 | 指数表现 上证指数 收盘3276.73，上涨 1.19% 申万一级行业中,23个上涨,8个下跌。 涨幅前三行业:银行、房地产和综合 跌幅前三行业:国防军工、农林牧渔和计算机 全市场两融业务情况 17 概况 截至4月18日 全市场融资融券余额 较上周减少 18,038.4亿元 54.5亿元 较上周减少 融资余额 17,927.2亿元 55.7亿元 较上周增加 融券余额 1.2亿元 111.3亿元 0 2 行业聚焦 申银万国一级（2021）行业分类中，半数行业净买入额为 正。 1 2 日均成交额 深圳成指 收盘9781.65, 下跌 0.54% 上海市场 4625亿元，环比减少 33.6% 深圳市场 6137亿元，环比减少 30.1% C 行业涨跌 3. 337 行业累计净买入额(万元) 汽车 提供化工 但包含圆 矢约生物 钢铁 美容护理 纺织服饰 环保 轻工制造 商贸零售 建筑材料 有油石化 房地产 建筑装饰 公用事业 传媒 娱灰 机械设备 食品饮料 电力设备 通信 银行 非银金融 计算机 -200,000.00 -100,000.00 0.00 100,00 ...

22日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）大幅下调了对今年和明年的全球经济增长预期，警告称，由于特朗普 的关税政策，全球经济前景可能进一步恶化。 IMF将其对今年全球GDP增长的预测下调至2.8%。这低于其1月份预测的3.3%，将是自2020年以来最慢 的GDP增长速度，也将是自2009年以来的第二差数据。将对明年的增长预期下调至3%，下降0.3个百分 点。 预计美国今年的经济增长率为1.8%，2026年为1.7%，分别下调0.9和0.4个百分点。美国2025年陷入衰退 的概率为40%，去年10月预计为27%。 IMF表示，对于美国而言，贸易冲突将引发供应冲击，推高物价并拖累生产力。对于贸易伙伴而言，更 高的关税将转化为需求冲击，影响产出和物价。值得注意的是，美国关税的实际税率已跃升至一个世纪 以来的最高水平。 IMF：特朗普政策加剧风险，全球经济增长前景堪忧 IMF首席经济学家Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas在简报会上表示： "我们正在进入一个新时代。过去80年来运作的全球经济体系正在被重塑。" 由于特朗普的政策，美国股市、美元和长期美国国债一直动荡不安。近期他公开"叫板"美联储主席鲍威 尔，加剧 ...

首先，贸易冲突的进展仍主导市场短期运行。上周贸易冲突虽然没有明显升级，但是当前高额的关 税，使得全球贸易面临重大挑战，投资者的关注重心逐渐转向其对实体经济的影响。当前国际环境下， 国内积极的宏观经济政策如何进一步推进，成为市场关注的焦点和投资线索。与此同时，国内一季度的 经济数据和上市公司的年报、季报正在进入密集披露期，投资者需要密切关注具体数据是否能够达到市 场的预期。此外，上周美国人工智能芯片的出口政策有进一步收紧的趋势，科技领域的竞争和突围势在 必行，国内科技行业的进展也将很大程度上影响市场的风险偏好。 上周，两市震荡分化，成交大幅萎缩。沪指延续了上周的反弹，总体呈现继续修复的特征。但深圳 市场表现偏弱，周一开盘几乎就是最高点，随后一路小幅回落。量能方面，上周未能延续上周的放量格 局，量能出现了明显萎缩。上周市场热点主要集中在银行地产等低估值行业以及大消费行业。投资风格 方面，大盘蓝筹明显强于中小盘和科技风格。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于三月中下旬，在 去年四季度的密集成交区间遇到较强技术阻力，开始进入调整。最终在周线的箱体中轨线附近找到支撑 并展开反弹。目 ...

Economic Overview - The first quarter of 2025 showed a good economic start, with March export data exceeding expectations, driven by a "rush to export" effect, leading to a year-on-year export growth rate of 12.4%[6] - Core economic indicators such as consumption, investment, and real estate showed significant improvement, primarily due to the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies[6] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment being the main drivers[6] Trade and Policy Implications - The recent trade conflict that erupted in early April did not impact the first quarter's economic performance; instead, the "rush to export" provided some support[7] - The upcoming April Politburo meeting is expected to focus on macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with a high probability of further policy implementation[7] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is identified as the government's primary task for 2025, with a focus on childcare subsidies, real estate, and tourism[8] - Recent policies include increased childcare subsidies and support for the real estate market, indicating a commitment to releasing market potential[8] Market Expectations - Since late February, market expectations for the 2025 performance of the Wind All A Index have weakened, with the consensus forecast for net profit declining from CNY 66,149.50 billion to CNY 63,991.29 billion, a drop of 3.26%[10] - This decline reflects a market reassessment of the U.S. government's trade stance towards China, particularly following tariff increases[10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.59%, indicating a stronger performance compared to other indices like the ChiNext and the CSI 500, which saw declines[5] - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 17.95, up by 1.02% from the previous week[5]

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 震荡 | | | 周二，玉米先跌后涨，7 月合约持仓增加，期价以小阴线收盘。在连续两日的期 货调整过程中，玉米期价领跌，现货强于期货，基差回归。近期玉米 5 月合约持 | | | | 仓下降，7 月合约增仓，加权合约持仓增加，空头增仓占优。现货市场方面，北 | | | | 港高水分玉米走货一般，货源也相对较多，港口价格表现暂显一般。但是，产区 | | | | 贸易商低价出货意向一般，东北产区价格暂较为坚挺。周末华北地区玉米价格整 | | | | 体稳中偏强运行。贸易商出货意愿减弱， 深加工企业门前到货量维持低位，支 | | | 玉米 | 撑价格偏强，深加工企业玉米收购价格普遍上调 10-30 元/吨。周末销区市场玉 | | | | 米价格整体稳定运行。下游按需拿货，少量补充库存，饲料厂当前对远月市场看 | | | | 涨心态一般，6-7 月份远期订单签订减少。港口提货速度一般，价格维持稳定为 | | | | 主。技术上，玉米 7 月合约 2300 元/吨整数关口是近 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 16 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】周二（4 月 15 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指连续六个交易日收涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.15%， 收报 3267.66 点；深证成指跌 0.27%，收报 9858.10 点；创业板指跌 0.13%，收报 1930.40 点。沪深两市成交额 仅有 10772 亿，较昨日缩量 2003 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 15 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3761.24，环比上涨 2.09。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 15 日焦炭加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1575.5 元，环比上涨 19.2。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 １ 编辑：国新国证期货 4 月 15 日，焦煤加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 957.0 元，环比上涨 1.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：第一轮提涨部分落地，关注后续是否有继续提涨动能。受关税政策影响，焦炭价格跟随钢材走势为主。 铁水日产小幅拾升，焦化利润明显收缩，但日产持续抬升。焦炭整体库存去化不畅仍维持高位，贸易采购积极性 有所回落。 焦煤：炼焦煤矿山有复产情况出现，周内产量抬升 ...

美豆价格小幅走低，中国大豆进口创17年新低，贸易冲突阴云叠加巴西困局，未来大豆市场将如何破 局？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The market still has concerns about trade conflicts, and the international crude oil price has declined again, which may have a negative impact on the methanol futures trend. It is expected that the methanol market will likely remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - related news and olefin plant changes. For MA2505, it is recommended to operate with a bearish bias [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The methanol market is affected by trade conflict concerns and falling international crude oil prices. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro news and olefin plant changes. For MA2505, a bearish operation is recommended [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some plants have shutdown or maintenance plans; March import is expected to be low, and port de - stocking exceeds expectations; olefin operation is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand enters the peak season; methanol factory inventories in production areas are tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the operation of refineries in northern Shandong is at a low level; the weather in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although methanol has risen significantly recently, cost transfer is difficult, and attention should be paid to negative feedback from downstream; upstream factories are actively selling under high - profit conditions [6]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2480 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is 88, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The futures closing price is 2392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 484,900 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol supply in coastal areas decreased by 24,800 tons to 301,200 tons [5]. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [7]. - **Profit**: The weekly changes in the profits of coal - based, natural - gas - based, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol production were - 37, 0, and - 348 respectively [14]. - **External Market**: The CFR China price decreased by 7.08% week - on - week, and the CFR Southeast Asia price decreased by 4.14% week - on - week. The price difference decreased by 5 [23]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end times and varying production losses [56]. - **Foreign Plants**: Some Iranian plants restarted in mid - March but have low operating rates, while plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Qatar are generally operating normally [57].

文 ｜ 明明 周成华 王楠茜 美国历史上也出现过保护主义抬头，美国关税壁垒高筑的情况，例如上世纪3 0年代签署的《斯姆 特-霍利关税法》。如今，特朗普关税政策在保护本国产业、迎合特定选民等方面与该法案相似。 然而，这轮背景不同导致特朗普关税政策更为激进且专断，考虑当前经济环境与各国博弈情况，美 国与较多国家关于对等关税的谈判有望在今年二三季度完成，但是中美贸易谈判的难度更高，预计 谈判时长会更久。 ▍ 《斯姆特-霍利关税法》出台于全球产能过剩、美国经济大萧条的背景之下，其目的是保护美 国本土产业、缓解就业压力，进而推动经济复苏。 2 0 世纪 2 0 年代，全球产能过剩，欧洲市场对美国商品的需求剧减。1 9 2 9 年，美国经济大萧 条，国内生产陷入困境，保护主义情绪进一步高涨。尽管该法案充满争议，但多方政治力量推动 下，最终于 1 9 3 0 年 6 月签署立法。 ▍ 《斯姆特-霍利关税法》落地后，各国反制引发了全球贸易冲突，对美国和全球经济造成了深 远的破坏性影响。 加拿大率先对占美国出口 3 0% 的商品加征关税，欧洲国家同样反应强烈，法国、意大利、西班 牙等国相继提高对美商品关税。受此影响，美国对外贸 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The US announced a 90 - day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on most economies after 13 hours of implementation, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, which significantly boosted global risk appetite. In China, measures such as increasing ETF and related stock holdings, and stock repurchases by listed companies, along with potential new incremental policies, supported the domestic market's risk appetite [3]. - For different asset classes, short - term strategies include cautious long - positions for stocks, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy - chemical products; cautious short - term holding for black metals; and cautious short - term observation for black metals [3]. Summary by Relevant Categories Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Supported by sectors like military, port shipping, and software development, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. Despite short - term market volatility due to Sino - US tariff disputes, domestic measures and potential policies provided support. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term, they are expected to oscillate and rebound, with cautious long - positions advised [3]. - **Commodity Sector**: Black metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with cautious observation recommended; non - ferrous metals, energy - chemical products, and precious metals are expected to rebound, with cautious long - positions advised [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, the precious metals market significantly recovered. COMEX gold rose over 3% to around 3100, and Shanghai gold rebounded to around 740. Although the global trade tension has eased, gold still has allocation value as a hedge against instability. In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the US dollar credit crisis provide upward momentum for gold [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to decline, but trading volume increased. While real - world demand is marginally improving, there are concerns about demand peaking. Supply is expected to increase further. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to weaken. Although iron - water production is expected to rise, there are concerns about demand decline in the future. Supply is expected to decrease. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese continued to decline. While short - term demand is still acceptable, supply is decreasing. Short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Trump announced a suspension of high - tariff policies on some trading partners, but the impact of China's tariff increase remains. Oil prices are expected to be highly volatile in the near term [9]. - **Asphalt**: Driven by crude oil prices, the spot price has weakened. Although the inventory situation has slightly improved, actual demand is still weak. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [9]. - **PX**: PX prices are oscillating at a low level. In addition to monitoring crude oil prices, attention should be paid to overseas oil - blending demand. Prices are expected to remain low this week [10]. - **PTA**: US terminal orders are stagnant, and downstream production and sales are extremely sluggish. PTA is expected to slightly rebound with the rise of crude oil prices [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Shipping volume is at a very low level, and inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [11]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by oil prices, short - fiber prices have significantly declined. Although there is some price support, it is expected to remain weakly trending in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market in Taicang is weakly declining. Near - month contracts are supported by inventory decline, while far - month contracts are weaker. In the short term, there may be concentrated selling due to risk aversion, but there is still some support from inventory reduction in the medium - term [12]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market continued to decline. With new upstream device launches and weak downstream demand, prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - **LLDPE**: The PE market price continued to fall. Supply is relatively loose, and demand growth has slowed. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After the US announced a 90 - day tariff suspension on non - retaliatory countries, LME copper rebounded significantly. However, due to Trump's inconsistent policies and trade - war pressures, the rebound height is limited [14]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have fallen sharply and are in an oversold state. The impact of tariffs has weakened. The fundamentals are stable, but the market is mainly driven by macro factors. A rebound is approaching [14]. - **Tin**: After a sharp decline, tin prices rebounded due to the US tariff suspension. However, considering the potential supply increase and macro risks, the rebound height is limited [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: CBOT soybeans continued to rise slightly overnight. The market's focus is shifting to the April USDA report and spring - sowing conditions. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant [16]. - **Soybean Meal**: With the arrival of South American soybeans, domestic soybean supply is stable. The spot basis is expected to weaken, while futures are affected by import - cost increases and supply - chain concerns. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean export prices and US new - season sowing [16]. - **Oils and Fats**: International energy and oil prices rebounded, and domestic oil prices were stable overnight. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report, as analysts expect palm oil inventory in Malaysia to increase by 3% to 1.56 million tons at the end of March [17][18]. - **Corn**: The upper limit of the current price range is pressured by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premiums, and policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the spot selling pressure at the end of the month [18]. - **Hogs**: The spot market is in a range - bound situation. There is still significant pressure on hog slaughter in April - May. With an expected increase in planned slaughter in April, rising feed costs, and completed reserve - inventory rotation, the upward drive for hog prices in April is weak [18].