投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 = 宏观金融数据日报 | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਮੇ | IF升贴水 | 15.57% | 7.35% | 4.58% | 4.33% | | 贴 | IH升贴水 | 10. 64% | 4.63% | 2.20% | 2.09% | | 水 | IC升贴水 | 19. 15% | 12.43% | 10.81% | 11.30% | | 情 Я | IM升贴水 | 20. 17% | 15.75% | 14.05% | 13.68% | 注:括号里的数值为年化计算后的升贴水率(标绿为升水,标红为贴水)。 数据来源:wind 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 免责 、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据 此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任 ...

中国11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，预期0.7%，前值0.2%；11月PPI同比下降2.2%，预期降2%，前值降2.1%。 国家统计局表示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月 扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动，扣除食品和 能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影 响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降2.2%。CPI涨幅扩大或主要受到食品项 同比增速在低基数背景下由负转正支撑，但是非食品项相对弱于季节性，冬季供暖需求和"反内卷"则支 撑PPI环比延续正增长，上游改善幅度强于下游，内需仍对价格上涨形成制约。 【操作建议】 12月政治局会议提及"提质增效"、"逆周期与跨期周期"，指向政策落地质量效果的重要性，逆周期政策 或不会大幅加码，增加跨周期调节的指导思想，降准降息等总量政策可能相对谨慎，不过赤字率也可能 不会大幅上升，财政货币仍将增强协同。当前10年期国债在1.85%阶段高点附近仍有阻力，对应T2603 合约在107.6附近或有支撑 ...

由于具备专款专用、用途灵活、不列入财政赤字、即收即支等特点，作为财政扩张工具的特别国债往往 在宏观经济政策加大逆周期调节力度时备受市场期待。 今年以来，中央财政不仅继续发行1.3万亿元超长期特别国债，更大力度支持"两重"项目建设以及加力 扩围实施"两新"政策。今年中央财政还专门发行5000亿元特别国债，为大型商业银行注入资本金。 近日召开的中共中央政治局会议明确，明年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策。展望"十五五"开局之年， 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒认为，基建投资在"十五五"开局之年随着大型项目开工有望提速，但高度 依赖中央财政支持力度。中央财政或通过超长期特别国债承担更多支出责任，以确保实物工作量。 本次拟发行的2025年到期续作特别国债(一期)、(二期)，期限品种分别为10年期4000亿元、15年期3500 亿元，在操作方式上依然参照过往特别国债到期续作。 2007年，经国务院同意和全国人大常委会批准，财政部发行了1.55万亿元特别国债，作为中国投资有限 责任公司的资本金来源。期限主要为10年、15年，2017年起陆续到期。此后，在2017年、2022年和2024 年上述部分特别国债到期时，财政部均向有关银 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stability of the fixed income market is recovering, with a focus on the liquidity situation and upcoming policy signals by the end of the year [1][2][3] - In October, the excess reserve ratio decreased by approximately 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, slightly below the expected 1.3%, primarily due to an increase in government deposits [1][19] - Government deposits rose by 625.8 billion yuan in October, exceeding the expected 378.1 billion yuan, which contributed to the lower-than-expected excess reserve ratio [1][19][20] Group 2 - In November, the broad fiscal deficit is expected to be relatively high, but with a significant increase in government debt net payments, government deposits are projected to decrease by about 250 billion yuan, which will provide some liquidity support [2][27] - The report anticipates an increase in monetary issuance of approximately 140 billion yuan in November, with a rise in reserve requirements by about 110 billion yuan [2][28] - The central bank's net repurchase operations in November are expected to result in a net withdrawal of 5,562 billion yuan, while MLF net investment is projected at 1,000 billion yuan [2][42] Group 3 - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, with a focus on maintaining stability in the financial system despite some tightening in the money market [3][55] - The average issuance scale of key-term government bonds in November decreased compared to October, indicating a potential shift in government financing strategies [2][33] - The report notes that the central bank's net purchase of government bonds in November was only 50 billion yuan, which is lower than market expectations, reflecting a cautious approach to liquidity management [4][57] Group 4 - The report discusses the implications of the central bank's emphasis on "cross-cycle" and "counter-cyclical" adjustments, indicating a desire to manage the growth of social financing and M2 in relation to nominal GDP [3][45] - It is noted that the central bank's actions may be a response to previous recommendations from the National People's Congress regarding monetary policy adjustments [4][48] - The report suggests that while there is a potential for interest rate cuts in Q1 of the following year, the timing may be influenced by the overall economic conditions and fiscal policies [4][11]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面继续下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3079 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 44 元/吨，跌幅为 1.41%，持仓增加 11.6 万手。现货价格继续下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.26 万吨。中央政治局会议指出明年经济工作要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，相对 2024 年会议未再提 | | | | "超常规"，但提了"跨周期"，或预示 2026 年将会更加注重存量政策效应的释放，增量政策加码的可能 | | | | 性有所降低。煤焦价格近日连续下跌，钢厂利润扩大，对黑色系商品走势形成拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍 | | | | 窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格有所下跌，收于 757.5 元/吨，较前 ...

12 月政治局会议传递的信号 20251209 中国政策重心转向高质量发展，不再片面追求经济增速，更强调结构调 整和增长质量，预计"十五"期间经济增长中枢在 4.5%左右，2026 年 增长目标或设在 5%左右。 财政政策将维持积极态势，赤字率或小幅提升至 4%-4.2%，专项债规 模预计与预算持平或略增，但特别国债和超长期特别国债的使用将适度 收缩。 货币政策延续适度宽松基调，但除非外部环境剧变，否则宽松力度有限， 结构性政策工具将继续发力，重点支持科技、绿色等领域，以促进物价 合理回升和金融稳定。 国际经贸方面，中国将灵活应对外部环境变化，若外需承压，将加大逆 周期调节力度。尽管中美关系波动可控，但需警惕欧洲和日本可能出现 的贸易摩擦对中国出口的影响。 消费刺激策略将从耐用品消费扩展到养老消费等新领域，以维持当前消 费水平并开辟新的增长点。政府侧重通过提升服务业供给来挖掘消费潜 力，而非直接刺激需求。 Q&A 摘要 如何解读 2026 年中央政治局会议传递的经济信号？ 2026 年中央政治局会议传递的主要经济信号可以从逆周期与跨周期相结合的 视角进行解读。在中美博弈、社会稳定、结构转型和经济增长四个层次中 ...

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货12月9日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 112.300 | 112.670 | 112.750 | 112.610 | 0.450 | 0.40 | ...

昨天螺纹盘面继续下跌，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3079元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌44元/ 吨，跌幅为1.41%，持仓增加11.6万手。现货价格继续下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10元/吨至2940元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌30元/吨至3180元/吨，全国建材成交量9.26万吨。中央 政治局会议指出明年经济工作要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，相对2024年会议未再提"超常规"，但提 了"跨周期"，或预示2026年将会更加注重存量政策效应的释放，增量政策加码的可能性有所降低。煤焦 价格近日连续下跌，钢厂利润扩大，对黑色系商品走势形成拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为 主。 铁矿石： 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所下跌，收于757.5元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌3元/吨，跌 幅为0.4%，成交24万手，增仓1.2万手。港口现货主流品种市场价格，现青岛港PB粉784持平，超特粉 673涨5。供应端，澳洲发运量止降回升，巴西发运量有所下降，其他国家发运量有所增加。需求端，铁 水产量环比下降至232.2万吨。库存端，47个港口进口铁矿库存、钢厂库存继续累库。短期来看，矿价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the retail industry in fostering a complete domestic demand system and strengthening the domestic circulation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, advocating for a shift towards quality and service-driven growth [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts amid internal disagreements, with market pricing indicating a high likelihood of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with plans for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2][10] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of key commodities such as government bonds, oils, and copper, noting that the 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.83% [2][10] - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, indicating a slight increase, while exports have grown by 5.7% year-on-year, reflecting strong resilience in foreign trade [2][10] - In the oil market, palm oil prices have shown slight increases, while soybean oil prices are under pressure due to improved supply expectations [3][27] Group 3 - The article discusses the copper market, indicating a continued tight supply of concentrates and a shift in global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [18] - The article also mentions the performance of various commodities, including a decline in aluminum prices due to uncertainties surrounding future Fed rate cuts and a slight decrease in zinc prices amid stable supply [20][19] Group 4 - The article outlines the recent developments in the agricultural sector, particularly in soybean planting in Brazil, which has reached 86% completion, and the impact of this on global supply dynamics [26] - It also notes that domestic cotton prices are expected to remain strong due to stable demand and limited supply, despite some pressure from macroeconomic factors [29]

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in the 30-year treasury futures, with the 30-year treasury yield rising over 7 basis points to above 2.25% and the 10-year treasury yield increasing by 0.7 basis points to 1.8480% [1] - The widening gap between the 30-year and 10-year treasury yields is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of new fund redemption fees, anticipated steady growth policies, and a decrease in monetary easing expectations [1][6] - Institutional profit-taking pressure is significant as the year-end approaches, contributing to the sell-off in the long-end bond market [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is influencing the bond market, with expectations for steady growth impacting market sentiment directly [2] - The central government's emphasis on implementing more proactive macro policies indicates a supportive stance for economic growth, despite the lack of specific targets [4] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption remains a key policy direction, with an emphasis on innovation and technology [4][5] Group 3 - The overall policy framework for the upcoming year is expected to prioritize broad fiscal expansion, with monetary easing complementing fiscal efforts [5] - There is a strong mid-term expectation for economic stabilization, although the necessity for short-term interest rate cuts is limited [5][6] - The bond market sentiment remains under pressure, with the 10-year treasury yield expected to oscillate between 1.85% and 1.9%, while the 30-year treasury yield has limited upward movement potential [6][7] Group 4 - The year-end selling pressure from banks to realize gains on older bonds is likely to constrain the upward movement of the bond market [7] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is weak, with expectations that the 30-year treasury futures will continue to exhibit a weak oscillating pattern [7] - The potential for a reserve requirement ratio cut may enhance the strength of the short-end bond market, leading to a steeper yield curve [7]