Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to be a major focus for the market, particularly in light of recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on multiple economies, which may influence inflation [3] - The U.S. services sector is facing challenges, with the ISM services PMI indicating a significant rise in the prices paid index, suggesting inflation remains a critical concern [3] - The U.K. central bank recently lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, and the upcoming GDP data for Q2 will be closely monitored to assess economic performance [5] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Financial Reports - The earnings season is nearing its end, with notable companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and NetEase set to release their financial results [1][3] - Other companies of interest during this earnings period include Cisco, Applied Materials, and Deere [3] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Market Trends - International oil prices experienced their largest weekly decline since late June, with WTI crude oil at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.1%, and Brent crude at $66.59 per barrel, down 4.4% [4] - Gold prices reached a historical high before retreating, with the New York Mercantile Exchange near-month contract closing at $3,397.28 per ounce, up 1.02% for the week [4] - The widening price gap between U.S. gold futures and spot prices indicates potential impacts on trading dynamics, particularly concerning Swiss gold refining and transportation [4]

在演讲中关于货币政策和美国经济的部分，鲍曼表示她赞成今年降息三次，并称最近疲软的劳动力市场 数据也强化了她的观点。美联储政策制定委员会今年一直维持利率不变，鲍曼直到6月也一直支持这一 立场。但在7月，她与美联储理事Christopher Waller均支持降息25基点。 周六，她敦促其他央行决策者 在美联储下次于9月召开的会议上开始降息。 她表示，此举"将有助于避免劳动力市场状况进一步不必 要地恶化，并降低委员会在劳动力市场进一步恶化时需要实施更大规模政策修正的可能性。" 鲍曼还重 申她认为关税驱动的价格上涨不太可能持续推高通胀。她于2018年被时任总统特朗普任命为美联储理 事。 ...

对于通胀，美联储理事鲍曼表示，核心个人消费支出通胀似乎正朝着远较数据所显示的更接近2%目标 的方向发展。他认为，忽视暂时高企的通胀是合适的做法。通胀上行风险已降低，更有信心认为关税不 会导致持续性通胀。鲍曼认为就业人数增长急剧放缓可能是由于劳动力需求大幅疲软所致。鲍曼表示， 放松监管、降低税收以及利于商业发展的环境可能会抵消关税相关因素对经济活动和物价的影响。此 外，他赞成今年三次降息。 ...

特朗普在提名米兰的同时表示，将继续寻找长期填补这一职位的人选。美国CNBC网站8日称，这意味 着米兰只是临时担任理事一职。《华尔街日报》称，尽管任何被提名者可能只会在美联储理事会任职几 个月，但特朗普的人选一直备受投资者关注，因为这会透露出他将如何影响货币政策。 《纽约时报》7日称，米兰始终坚定地支持特朗普的议程，认为美联储的货币政策导致通胀严重，他将 能够对利率以及一系列其他决策进行投票表决。近几个月来，这些决策变得愈发棘手，因为美联储理事 在何时重启降息行动的问题上存在分歧。《华尔街日报》8日称，特朗普一直对美联储不降息感到不 满，曾多次向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，并呼吁他辞职。鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束。 本报特约记者 王 逸 当地时间7日，美国总统特朗普宣布提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事。据《华 尔街日报》8日报道，特朗普当天在社交媒体上表示，米兰将填补美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒突然辞 职留下的空缺，他的任期将持续到明年1月。 库格勒任期原本在2026年1月31日到期。她8月1日突然表示，将于8月8日离职。继任者米兰拥有哈佛大 学经济学博士学位，曾在美国财政部担任负责经济政策的高 ...

Group 1 - Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board is seen as an attempt to place a loyalist in the central bank to better control monetary policy [1] - Stephen Moore, a Harvard-educated economist, has a controversial track record advocating for significant interest rate cuts and has criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering rates quickly enough [1] - The relationship between Trump and Powell has been strained since Powell's appointment in 2017, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction over Powell's refusal to rapidly cut interest rates [1] Group 2 - Trump's actions are perceived as damaging to the Federal Reserve's credibility and the global financial order, leading to international investors selling U.S. Treasury bonds and a decline in the dollar index [2] - The political interference in the Fed is reminiscent of past interventions, such as Nixon's, which resulted in uncontrollable inflation and a devalued dollar [2] - There is a concern that Trump's approach may exacerbate economic issues rather than resolve them, potentially dragging the global economy into a deeper crisis [2]

8月7日周四，美国总统特朗普提名其高级经济顾问Stephen Miran出任美联储理事，旨在填补因理事Adriana Kugler提前辞职而空出的、将于明年1月到期的理 事席位。 资料配图，动图 由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美国总统特朗普重塑美联储的布局，正以一记出人意料的短期任命拉开序幕。 据媒体最新分析， 此举一石二鸟：既在短期内向美联储安插了一位支持降息的盟友，又巧妙地为自己赢得了时间，以谋划下一任美联储主席这一关键人事任 命。 特朗普明确表示， "与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选"，暗示这仅是一项临时安排。 这被市场解读为特朗普在为明年5月现任主席鲍威尔任期结束 后的人选进行战略布局。 消息公布后，市场对美联储独立性可能受损的担忧加剧，美元指数应声回落。 野村证券外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi指出， 对美联储独立性减弱的担忧"可能自然导致美元的抛售压力"。 对投资者而言，这一任命不仅意味着 美联储内部可能出现更多支持降息的声音 ，更重要的是，它预示着特朗普希望美联储采取何种政策路径，并 为未来可能 出现的更激进的美联储改革埋下伏笔 。 一场"过渡性"任命： 争取时间，保留选择 特朗普 ...

美国总统特朗普重塑美联储的布局，正以一记出人意料的短期任命拉开序幕。 8月7日周四，美国总统特朗普提名其高级经济顾问Stephen Miran出任美联储理事，旨在填补因理事 Adriana Kugler提前辞职而空出的、将于明年1月到期的理事席位。 据媒体最新分析，此举一石二鸟：既在短期内向美联储安插了一位支持降息的盟友，又巧妙地为自己赢 得了时间，以谋划下一任美联储主席这一关键人事任命。 特朗普明确表示，"与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选"，暗示这仅是一项临时安排。这被市 场解读为特朗普在为明年5月现任主席鲍威尔任期结束后的人选进行战略布局。 消息公布后，市场对美联储独立性可能受损的担忧加剧，美元指数应声回落。野村证券外汇策略师 Yusuke Miyairi指出，对美联储独立性减弱的担忧"可能自然导致美元的抛售压力"。 对投资者而言，这一任命不仅意味着美联储内部可能出现更多支持降息的声音，更重要的是，它预示着 特朗普希望美联储采取何种政策路径，并为未来可能出现的更激进的美联储改革埋下伏笔。 一场"过渡性"任命：争取时间，保留选择 特朗普此次提名Miran，其核心在于"过渡"二字。Miran的任期仅持 ...

Core Insights - The US stock market has shifted from a continuous upward trend to a wait-and-see phase, influenced by recent trade agreements and mixed economic signals [3][4][5] - The technology sector has shown strong performance, particularly driven by major companies like Apple and Amazon, while traditional sectors like energy and finance have struggled [5][12] Market Performance - As of August 7, the S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative increase of approximately 2.6% over the last 10 trading days, while the Nasdaq 100 index has performed even better with a rise of about 4.3% [4][6] - The recent performance of the Nasdaq is largely attributed to positive developments from tech giants, particularly in AI and manufacturing initiatives [5][12] Sector Analysis - The technology sector has outperformed, with significant contributions from companies like Apple, which announced a $100 billion investment in US manufacturing, leading to a 5% increase in its stock price [5][12] - Other AI-related companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have also reported strong earnings, contributing to their stock price increases [5][12] Economic Indicators - The July non-farm payroll data revealed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, leading to concerns about a cooling labor market [12] - The downward revision of previous months' job growth by a total of 258,000 jobs has heightened fears of recession or stagflation [12] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings have left interest rates unchanged, but there is speculation about potential rate cuts in September, influenced by inflation and tariff uncertainties [9][15] - The market's expectation for a rate cut has fluctuated, with the probability dropping to 42% following comments from Fed Chair Powell [9][15]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Views - The over - expected US initial jobless claims data, combined with the weak domestic economic growth and employment pressure, has intensified market concerns about the US economy, leading to more bets on the Fed's dovish turn. The Fed's personnel changes have also strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's easing. As a result, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than market expectations. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, exceeding market expectations. The cooling trend of labor data continues, and the market is trading on the loose expectation, which strongly supports the precious metal prices. Trump has selected Stephen Milan to replace a Fed governor, and the US Treasury Secretary has started the interview process for the new Fed chairman. There are also rumors about potential candidates. Geopolitically, Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 7, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.28 yuan/gram and closed at 785.02 yuan/gram, a change of 0.17% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 785.44 yuan/gram, up 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,163.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,258.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 326,856 lots, and the open interest was 378,070 lots. The night - session closed at 9,241 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 7, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.23%, up 1 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.51%, down 2 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On August 7, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,107 lots, and the short positions decreased by 180 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts was 234,653 lots, a decrease of 2.03% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 958 lots, and the short positions decreased by 708 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts was 471,384 lots, a decrease of 11.49% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 959.09 tons, up 6.30 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.80 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 7, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was - 9.88 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 646.37 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.79, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.01, a decrease of 1.15% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On August 7, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 31,738 kg, an increase of 8.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 252,338 kg, an increase of 8.96% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,114 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 2,040 kg [7]. Outlook - Gold: The price of gold is expected to continue to rise, and the oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 775 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram. - Silver: The price of silver is expected to continue to rise, and the oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 8,900 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - Options: On hold [8]

在美国各项经济数据释放信号不一致、关税政策对通胀影响仍然不明的背景下，美联储能否顶住政治压 力，维持货币政策独立性？特朗普任命"影子主席"的做法能否左右降息前景？为何特朗普突然紧盯翻修 案？投资者又该如何交易布局呢？就这些问题，第一财经专访了瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔 晓。 特朗普提名"影子主席"作用有限 崔晓对第一财经分析称，"从法理层面来讲，如果因为特朗普仅仅因为与鲍威尔在利率问题上意见不一 致，就想解雇他是完全不可能的，因为之前最高法院的案子已经再次强化了，美联储是一个独立机 构。"如果特朗普"因故"要解雇鲍威尔，只能利用翻修案，但整个过程也会非常混乱和棘手，因为翻修 案这个事情是否严重到足以构成"因故"中的"故"，需要由白宫先提交相关诉讼，然后由一层层法院审 核，最终由高等法院裁决。在整个漫长的裁决过程中，鲍威尔仍有权留任美国联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）理事。并且，FOMC主席由谁担任是由FOMC成员决定的，凭借鲍威尔和FOMC成员的关 系，他们也会继续支持鲍威尔在此期间继续担任主席。鲍威尔本人也曾表态，除非他去世，否则没有任 何事情能阻碍他完成任期。 根据1913年的《联邦储备法》第10 ...