Copper - Copper prices stabilized and increased overnight, with domestic refined copper maintaining an import window closure [2] - LME copper inventory rose by 1,450 tons to 176,125 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,284 tons to 528,252 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts grew by 494 tons to 153,021 tons [2] - Demand for copper has rebounded significantly as purchasing willingness increased with price adjustments [2] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association suggested enhancing the copper resource reserve system, including expanding national copper strategic reserves [2] - Despite a significant rebound in copper prices, the market faces challenges such as weak fundamentals, accumulating inventories, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival [2] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 2.05% to $17,395 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 2.34% to 135,770 yuan per ton [13] - LME nickel inventory remained at 285,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,606 tons to 48,180 tons [13] - Nickel ore and nickel pig iron prices showed strong transactions, indicating potential supply tightness [13] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum oxide prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,806 yuan per ton, down 0.14% [15] - SHFE aluminum prices increased, with AL2603 rising by 1.47% to 23,865 yuan per ton [15] - Recent maintenance in various regions has led to a gradual accumulation of aluminum oxide inventory [15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract settling at 8,815 yuan per ton, down 0.62% [16] - Polysilicon prices increased, with the main contract rising by 6.61% to 50,000 yuan per ton [16] - The supply of silicon ore is expected to shrink as companies enter winter maintenance [16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 4.63% to 148,100 yuan per ton, while spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 2,000 yuan to 153,500 yuan per ton [17] - Weekly production of lithium decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 670 tons [17] - Market sentiment has improved slightly, but caution is advised due to recent price declines and potential supply disruptions from U.S. strategic mineral reserve projects [17]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 97.363, while spot gold opened at $4944.54 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $5048.82 per ounce [1] - The previous trading day saw the US dollar index rise by 0.06% to 97.445, and spot gold increased by 6.15% to $4945.74 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals also experienced price increases, with spot silver rising by 7.48% to $85.07 per ounce, platinum up by 4.18% to $2214.00 per ounce, and palladium increasing by 0.78% to $1741.50 per ounce [1] Group 2 - As of February 3, COMEX gold inventory increased by 4.05 tons to 1112.12 tons, while COMEX silver inventory rose by 57.24 tons to 12561.37 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.72 tons to 1083.38 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings fell by 108.89 tons to 16437.70 tons [2] - The payment direction for deferred compensation fees indicates that for gold (Au t+d), longs are paying shorts, while for silver (Ag t+d), shorts are paying longs [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is releasing risks, and silver is falling from a high level. Copper prices are strengthening due to raw material disturbances. Zinc is operating weakly. Lead prices are under pressure due to increased inventory. Tin has stopped falling and rebounded. Aluminum is rebounding slightly, alumina is oscillating within a range, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is oscillating at a low level, and palladium prices may be suppressed by ETF outflows. Nickel is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with nickel - iron expectations providing support [2]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, Comex Gold 2602, and London Gold Spot all increased, with daily increases of 8.45%, 6.74%, 6.19%, and 6.06% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Comex Gold 2602 decreased, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Comex Silver 2602 increased, while the price of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 12.12% during the day. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 increased, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 109. The inventories of both gold and silver in Shanghai and Comex decreased [4]. - **News**: The US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill to end a partial shutdown. There was an AI panic in the US stock market, and the Fed governor Milan said that more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of - 1 [6]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 104,500, with a daily increase of 6.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased, and the inventory of Shanghai Copper and London Copper increased. The LME copper cash - 3M spread and other spreads changed [7]. - **News**: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year. Zambia's copper production in 2025 increased by 8%. Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7%. Some copper companies' production decreased, and a copper mine in Canada resumed operations. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is studying including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve [7][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [9]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,960, with a 1.82% increase, while the London Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price decreased by 1.53%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, and the inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased while that of London Zinc decreased [10]. - **News**: Goldman Sachs analysts had views on Fed Chairman Wash. The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [11]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic - disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead decreased, and the inventory of both Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased [14]. - **News**: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 6.70% during the day but increased by 6.64% at night. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin increased, and the inventory of Shanghai Tin and London Tin decreased. The prices of spot tin decreased [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,810. The trading volume and inventory of Shanghai Aluminum and LME Aluminum changed. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,809. The prices and inventories of related products in the aluminum industry chain also changed [21]. - **News**: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 1, alumina has a trend intensity of 0, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 1 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamentals**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot increased. The trading volume and inventory of platinum and palladium in various markets changed [24]. - **News**: Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown. The Fed's statements on interest rate cuts and international events such as the situation between the US and Iran affected the market [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend intensity of 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,830, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,585. The prices, trading volumes, and inventories of products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains changed [30]. - **News**: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China implemented export license management for some steel products, and Indonesia planned to adjust the nickel ore production target. Some nickel mines planned to restart operations [30][31][33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [35].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries were provided in the report. Report's Core View The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, presenting the current trends and future outlooks for each commodity based on their respective fundamentals, market news, and macro - economic factors. It provides insights into the potential investment opportunities and risks in the commodity futures market [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is releasing risks, and silver is experiencing a high - level decline. Gold's trend strength is - 1, and silver's is also - 1 [2][5]. - **Copper**: Due to raw - material disturbances, copper prices are strengthening. Its trend strength is 1 [2][8]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is operating weakly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Lead**: Increasing inventory is pressuring lead prices. Its trend strength is 0 [2][14]. - **Tin**: Tin has stopped falling and is on the rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][17]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is experiencing a slight rebound, alumina is oscillating within a range, and casting aluminum alloy is following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 1, alumina's is 0, and the alloy's is 1 [2][21]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum is oscillating at a low level, and palladium's price may be suppressed by ETF outflows. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][24]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, macro - sentiment dominates the margin, with fundamentals and speculative positions in a game. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and nickel - iron is expected to support the lower price limit. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][30]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures market is showing strength. Its trend strength is 0 [2][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to market - sentiment changes; for polysilicon, the situation of the Beijing meeting should be monitored. Their trend strengths are both 1 [2][40]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a game between expectations and reality, and ore prices are oscillating within a narrow range. Its trend strength is 0 [2][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are experiencing wide - range oscillations. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][46]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon iron is weakly oscillating due to cost - expectation loosening, and manganese silicon is weakly oscillating due to commodity - sentiment resonance. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][50]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are oscillating at high levels. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][54]. - **Steam Coal**: Supply and demand are in a weak balance, and coal prices before the holiday are mainly stable [2][58]. - **Log**: Log prices are slightly rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][60]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene is in a high - level oscillating market with a weak monthly spread; PTA is in a high - level oscillating market; MEG should be operated within a range. Their trend strengths are all 1 [2][64]. - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber is oscillating strongly, and synthetic rubber is oscillating. Rubber's trend strength is 1, and synthetic rubber's is 0 [2][73][76]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE has a narrowing import volume, limited offers, and weakening oil - price support, with a trend strength of - 1. PP has significant cost disturbances, and its profit may be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][79][81]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a weak reality but strong expectations. Its trend strength is 0 [2][84]. - **Pulp**: Pulp is oscillating strongly. Its trend strength is 0 [2][88]. - **Glass**: The price of glass raw sheets is stable, with a trend strength of 0 [2][93]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is oscillating with support. Its trend strength is 0 [2][96]. - **Urea**: Urea is oscillating in the short term. Its trend strength is 0 [2][101]. - **Styrene**: Styrene is oscillating strongly. Its trend strength is 0 [2][104]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market for soda ash has little change. Its trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG is strongly affected by short - term geopolitical disturbances with a downward fundamental drive; propylene's upward drive is weakening, and attention should be paid to cost - end disturbances. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][111]. - **PVC**: PVC's fundamentals have not significantly improved. Its trend strength is 0 [2][122]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil rebounded at night, and its short - term weakness has eased; low - sulfur fuel oil slightly followed the rise, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has shrunk to a historical low. Their trend strengths are both 1 [2][127]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is in an oscillating market. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical negotiations and the resumption progress of shipping companies. Its trend strength is 0 [2][129]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Both are mainly oscillating in the short term after releasing emotional risks. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][143]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Hold short positions and reverse - spread positions. Its trend strength is - 1 [2][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene is oscillating strongly. Its trend strength is 0 [2][151]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is oscillating at a high level due to improved macro - sentiment, and soybean oil is boosted by the implementation of the US bio - diesel policy. Their trend strengths are both 0 [2][155]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Soybean meal may rebound and oscillate due to the impact of the bio - diesel policy and a small increase in US soybeans. After the release of the No. 1 Central Document, the market sentiment for soybean No. 1 is stable. Soybean meal's trend strength is 1, and soybean No. 1's is 0 [2][162]. - **Corn**: The decline in corn prices is limited. Its trend strength is 0 [2][165]. - **Sugar**: Sugar is consolidating within a range. Its trend strength is 0 [2][168]. - **Cotton**: Cotton is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. Its trend strength is 1 [2][173]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices in the spot market are weakening. Its trend strength is - 1 [2][179]. - **Hogs**: The peak season is not prosperous, and the pressure on spot prices is increasing. Its trend strength is - 2 [2][182]. - **Peanuts**: Peanuts are weakly oscillating. Its trend strength is 0 [2][187].

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货23290，基差-520，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨19718吨至216771吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡向上运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 每日汇总 | 类型 | 地方 地方 现货 昨日现货 | 中间价 中间价 | 涨跌 涨跌 | | 类型 | 总量（吨） 总量（吨） | 增减 增减 | | --- | --- ...

（免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。） 编辑|金冥羽 杜波 校对|段炼 2月4日，上证指数低开0.08%，创业板指跌0.8%。AI算力产业链走低，存储器、CPO方向领跌；半导体、消费电子题材跌幅靠前。黄金、基本金属、油气 板块反弹。 每经记者｜黄胜 每经编辑｜金冥羽 央行今日开展750亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平。因今日有3775亿元7天期逆回购到期，实现净回笼3025亿元。 记者|黄胜 中信证券研报称，回顾2026年1月央行政策表述，预期管理优先级或更高。鉴于降准成本低于扩表类工具，在净息差收窄、预计年中政府债发行压力较大 背景下，为保证银行承接，我们预计26Q2降准概率大。结构性降息落地后，总量降息节奏更关注通胀，我们预计2026年通胀分化、上半年偏弱且整体低 于下半年。债市短期看情绪、中期看货币、长期看通胀，或偏强震荡至春节，节后关注两会变量，长期利率存在上行风险。 港股低开，恒生指数低开0.14%，恒生科技指数跌0.87%。紫金矿业涨逾2%，中国海洋石油涨近2%。科网股多数走低，美团、快手、腾讯控股、携程集 团、华虹半导体跌幅靠 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown a strong rebound, returning above the midline, indicating increased bullish momentum, although further movement above the 5-day moving average is needed to enhance bullish prospects [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4667.81 per ounce, reached a low of $4665.67, and then rebounded to a high of $4992.95 before closing at $4935.80, marking a daily range of $327.28 and a gain of $267.99, or 5.74% [3]. - The recent price increase is attributed to buying pressure following a previous low, geopolitical tensions ahead of US-Iran talks, and indications from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts [3][5]. Market Outlook - On February 4, gold opened with weakened bullish momentum due to resistance from short-term moving averages and profit-taking, alongside reduced safe-haven demand following a government funding bill signed by Trump [3]. - Despite these factors, gold remains above key support levels, suggesting that the market may either consolidate or continue to strengthen, with a lower probability of further declines [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has returned above the 30-day and midline averages but faces resistance at the 10-day moving average, necessitating a breakthrough for a stronger bullish trend [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4850 and $4760, while resistance levels are at $5050 and $5160 [7]. - The monthly chart shows that despite a recent drop, gold has rebounded from a previously established upward trend support, indicating the potential for a new bull market [7]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming data to watch includes the US ADP employment figures, S&P Global Services PMI, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with mixed market expectations [5]. - The recent factors contributing to price drops have subsided, leading to a more favorable outlook for gold prices, supported by indications from Federal Reserve officials about significant rate cut potential this year [5].

Group 1: Government and Monetary Policy - The U.S. Congress passed a funding bill to resolve the partial government shutdown that began on January 31 [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the Fed needs to lower interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy until inflation returns to target [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking its first rate hike in 2023 and becoming the first major developed economy to raise rates since 2026 [1] Group 2: Real Estate and Economic Measures - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung announced that the government will take all necessary measures to curb real estate speculation, urging multiple property owners to sell before the expiration of a high capital gains tax exemption policy in May [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.34% at 49,240.99 points, the S&P 500 down 0.84% at 6,917.81 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.43% at 23,255.19 points [3] - International precious metal futures saw gains, with COMEX gold futures up 6.83% at $4,970.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 10.27% at $84.92 per ounce [3] Group 4: Oil and Bond Market - U.S. oil futures rose by 2.83% to $63.90 per barrel, while Brent oil futures increased by 2.55% to $67.99 per barrel [4] - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield up 0.01 basis points at 3.570% and the 10-year yield down 0.59 basis points at 4.266% [4] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22% to 97.39, with most non-U.S. currencies appreciating against the dollar [4]

记者丨张嘉钰 吴斌 编辑丨黎雨桐 百事可乐涨近5%，报162.5美元，创2024年12月以来新高。消息面上，百事可乐Q4营收同比 增长5.6%至约293.4亿美元，营业利润同比增长近60%至约35.57亿美元。据新消费日报，百事 将旗下部分主要品牌(包括乐事薯片和多力多滋薯片)的价格下调高达15%，以提振销量。 沃尔玛涨1.9%，今年累计涨幅达13%，市值首次突破1万亿美元大关。据中国基金报报道，今 年早些时候，沃尔玛宣布与Alphabet合作，在Google的Gemini平台上提供"AI增强购物"体 验；近期又与OpenAI合作，让消费者可直接通过ChatGPT浏览并购买沃尔玛商品。公司上个 月被纳入纳斯达克100指数，进一步凸显投资者对其科技化布局的热情。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌近1%，哔哩哔哩跌超3%，阿里巴巴跌超 2%， 网易、 百度跌超1%。小鹏汽车涨近2%。 贵金属方面，2月3日， 黄金白银强势反弹 ，现货黄金大涨超5%，站上4900美元；现货白银大 涨超11%， 完全收复昨日的跌幅， 报87.86美元。受此影响，美股 贵金属板块强势拉升，南方 铜业涨超7%，麦克莫兰铜金、Fi ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Marginal Changes - The consumer confidence index for January dropped significantly by 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest level since 2014, and well below market expectations of 91 [1][6]. - November trade data returned to normal patterns, with the overall trade deficit continuing to widen, and capital goods imports increased by 7.9%, led by computers and semiconductors, indicating sustained strong investment in AI-related sectors [1][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for December rose by 0.5% month-on-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.2%, indicating that businesses are passing tariff costs downstream, with inflationary pressures persisting [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Rate Expectations - At the January FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% as expected, continuing a monthly balance sheet reduction of $40 billion [2][7]. - Powell's remarks indicated a more positive economic outlook, with a shift from moderate to more robust expansion, while the labor market remains relatively stable despite cooling [2][7]. Group 3: Warsh's Policy Stance and Potential Impact - Warsh, nominated as the next Fed Chair, is relatively hawkish, advocating for rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, viewing inflation as a choice and suggesting that AI-driven productivity gains can help curb inflation [3][8]. - His support for rate cuts without inflation concerns suggests room for further easing, but his push for balance sheet reduction may face constraints from short-term liquidity pressures and midterm election dynamics [3][8]. Group 4: Asset Implications - In the U.S. stock market, tech stocks led declines amid balance sheet reduction expectations, with significant divergence among major tech firms; Microsoft fell by 11% while Meta surged nearly 10% [4][9]. - The capital expenditures of leading companies increasingly rely on internal cash flow for financing, indicating a stronger economic pull compared to the internet bubble period [4][9]. - The steepening yield curve in U.S. Treasuries may present trading opportunities in long-term bonds, with short-to-medium term bond yields expected to decline [4][13]. - Gold prices experienced volatility due to retracting rate cut expectations, with significant market fluctuations potentially providing buying opportunities [4][16]. - The U.S. dollar may face a downward trend due to adjustments in national security strategy, with liquidity concerns contributing to short-term rebounds [5][20].