Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Views - The report presents investment analyses and trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, on August 11, 2025 [2][4]. - Each commodity has its own unique market situation, influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic news, and industry - specific events [6][11][14]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Tariff misinformation affected price spreads. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex gold 2510 decreased by 0.70% to 3458.20, and the price of London gold spot decreased by 0.08% to 3397.20 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: There was a slight rebound. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2510 decreased by 0.05% to 38.510, and the price of London silver spot increased by 0.08% to 38.308 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak US dollar supported the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 0.04% to 78,490, and the price of the London copper 3M electronic disk increased by 1.01% to 9,768 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: It showed a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.29% to 22515, and the price of the London zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.66% to 2834 [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Decreased inventory supported the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 0.18% to 16845, and the price of the London lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.17% to 2003.5 [2][17]. - **Tin**: It oscillated within a range. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 0.06% to 267,780, and the price of the London tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.68% to 33,605 [2][20][22]. - **Aluminum**: Volatility dropped to a historical low. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20750, and the price of the London aluminum 3M was 2622 [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The support logic from the ore end weakened, and the smelting - end logic limited price elasticity. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,180 [2][26][30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The multi - empty game intensified, and the steel price oscillated. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985 [2][26][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The shutdown of a large - scale mine in Jiangxi was confirmed, and the price was running strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the 2509 contract was 76,640 [2][32][36]. - **Iron Ore**: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the 12509 contract decreased by 0.38% to 790.0 [2][38][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both showed wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0. The price of the RB2510 rebar contract decreased by 0.71% to 3,213, and the price of the HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract decreased by 0.55% to 3,428 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both showed wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0. The price of the silicon iron 2509 contract was 5772, and the price of the manganese silicon 2509 contract was 6046 [2][44][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both showed strong - side oscillations. The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0. The price of the JM2509 coking coal contract decreased by 1.6% to 1069.5, and the price of the J2509 coke contract decreased by 0.8% to 1653.5 [2][47][49]. - **Log**: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.2% to 830.5 [2][50][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand pressure increased, and the trend was weak. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the PX main contract decreased by 0.44% to 6726 [2][54][57]. - **PTA**: The processing fee was at a low level, and attention was paid to unplanned production cuts. The trend strength is - 1. The price of the PTA main contract decreased by 0.09% to 4684 [2][54][58]. - **MEG**: Go long on MEG and short on PTA/PX. The trend strength is 0. The price of the MEG main contract decreased by 0.27% to 4384 [2][54][59]. - **Rubber**: It oscillated strongly. The trend strength is 1. The daily - closing price of the rubber main contract increased by 25 to 15,550 [2][60][61]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supply and demand in the producing areas were both strong, and attention was paid to the MPOB report. [2][4][60] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from US soybeans was insufficient, and attention was paid to subsequent domestic purchases. [2][4][60] - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight decline of US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal might follow and adjust with oscillations. [2][4][62] - **Soybean No.1**: The price on the disk oscillated weakly. [2][4][62] - **Corn**: The price on the disk was under pressure. [2][4][64] - **Sugar**: The valuation had a safety margin. [2][4][66] - **Cotton**: It continued to oscillate. [2][4][67] - **Egg**: There was a rebound sentiment in the spot market. [2][4][69] - **Live Pig**: The spot market was weak, and the reverse - arbitrage strategy was maintained. [2][4][70] - **Peanut**: Attention was paid to the weather in the producing areas. [2][4][71]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the unexpected deterioration in Canada's employment data for July, with a significant drop in employment population by 40,800, exceeding market expectations [1] - The unemployment rate remained at 6.9%, lower than the expected 7%, primarily due to a decrease in the labor participation rate from 65.4% to 65.3%, which obscured the weakness in the job market [1] - Following the data release, the market reacted with a 0.2% increase in the USD/CAD exchange rate, although it continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.32-1.33, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - The probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in September has risen significantly from 35% to 46% after the employment data release, reflecting a growing expectation for a shift in monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest that if subsequent economic data continues to show weakness, the Bank of Canada may be compelled to initiate a loosening cycle earlier, which could exert additional pressure on the Canadian dollar [1] - The USD/CAD exchange rate has broken below the middle Bollinger Band (1.3777) and is approaching the lower support line of 1.3755, indicating potential testing of the lower Bollinger Band support [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US economy is expected to continue weakening in the medium term, with a clear direction towards interest rate cuts [1] - Recent concerns about market recession have been reignited due to unexpected weak non-farm data and the normalization of tariff policy disruptions, leading to increased expectations for rate cuts and a rise in market risk aversion [1] - Short-term gold prices are likely to surge again, while the long-term outlook remains bullish due to multiple supporting factors such as geopolitical conflicts, a weakening dollar, rate cut expectations, and continued gold purchases by non-US central banks [1] Group 2 - The gold ETF (518800) tracks the SGE gold 9999 (AU9999), reflecting the price trends of high-purity (99.99%) gold in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, purely reflecting the supply and demand dynamics of the domestic and international gold markets [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Gold ETF Connect A (000218) and Guotai Gold ETF Connect C (004253) [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is currently in the off - season with inventory accumulation, and the upward space is limited by the off - season demand pressure. Short - term support comes from the interest rate cut expectation. Focus on macro sentiment, downstream start - up, and the trend of inventory - consumption ratio [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel production enterprises' shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, among 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production since January 5, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 1620 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price was at a high level. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut on the macro - level boosted the basic metals, while the US imposing tariffs on India and the India - Russia aluminum cooperation agreement increased the funds' risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and steadily. The total weekly cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,738 yuan/ton, and the industry still had high profits. In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month. The bauxite shipment volume from Guinea decreased from late June to July, and the total imported bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting from August, while the increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [3]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different aluminum product sectors have different operating rate trends. For example, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy continued to rise, the aluminum cable operating rate remained stable, the aluminum profile and aluminum foil operating rates decreased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises remained stable [3]. - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with last Thursday and last Monday. Due to uneven arrivals, there were phased fluctuations in inventory data. In the off - season, high aluminum prices may further damage consumption, and the inventory will continue to accumulate in the short term [3].

天风证券近日发布金属与材料行业研究周报：转自期货日报公开信息：8月9日，期货日 报记者从市场各方交叉求证获悉，宁德时代枧下窝矿区采矿端将于当晚12点停产。自8月10 日起，该矿山采矿端就不开展工作了，且短期内没有复产计划。此次宁德锂矿争议落地，对 江西地区后续类似问题有代表性意义，碳酸锂供给收缩预期加剧，或迎来价值重估。 以下为研究报告摘要： 一周一议：宁德时代锂矿争端靴子落地——确定停产 转自期货日报公开信息：8月9日，期货日报记者从市场各方交叉求证获悉，宁德时代枧 下窝矿区采矿端将于当晚12点停产。自8月10日起，该矿山采矿端就不开展工作了，且短期 内没有复产计划。 我们怎么看？——此次宁德锂矿争议落地，对江西地区后续类似问题有代表性意义，碳 酸锂供给收缩预期加剧，或迎来价值重估。 基本金属：海外降息预期提升，铜价企稳回升，铝价重心小幅上移 建议关注：五矿资源、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、中国宏桥、中孚实业、天山铝 业、神火股份、云铝股份等。 贵金属：避险需求升温，看好金价上行。截至8月7日，国内99.95%黄金市场均价777.05 元/克，较上周均价上涨1.23%，上海现货1#白银市场均价9037元/千 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold and silver markets may experience strong oscillations. It's not advisable to chase short - term long positions in gold currently. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended in the range of [770 - 796]. Silver has a positive long - term upward trend with a recommended range of [9100 - 9360] [2][97][99] - Multiple factors such as weak US data, high interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical and trade frictions, and industrial demand structure support the rise of gold and silver prices [97] - In the long - term, central bank gold purchases, weakening US dollar credit, and inflation risks support the gold market [98] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Domestic industrial products follow the "governance of low prices" logic - Domestic industrial products were active this week. The black variety sector rose significantly with the Wenhua Black Chain Commodity Index up over 4%. The new energy index rose 4.29%, and the precious metal index rose 2.91% [12][15] 2. US data dropped significantly, and interest - rate cut expectations are strong - US economic data showed weakness. Unemployment data worsened, and inflation expectations were affected by tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reached 100% probability, with an expected 2 - 3 rate cuts throughout the year [11][27][28] 3. China's import and export data are resilient, and attention is paid to the stabilization of the real estate market - From January to July, China's exports and imports showed positive trends. The export growth rate to non - US countries was strong, offsetting the decline in exports to the US. The real estate market in 30 large - and medium - sized cities had a significant decline in transactions, while the land transactions in 100 large - scale cities increased month - on - month [61][63][67] 4. Supported by multiple factors, gold and silver rose significantly this week - Affected by factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, tariff changes, and central bank gold purchases, gold and silver prices rose. The net gold purchase volume of global central banks decreased in the second quarter of 2025, but 95% of central banks are expected to continue to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 9 consecutive months. The supply - demand gap of silver in 2025 is expected to narrow [81][92][93]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating [4] Core Views - The gold market is experiencing disruptions due to tariffs and shadow Fed policies, potentially opening a breakthrough window for gold prices [1] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact amid concerns over global monetary credit, public debt, and geopolitical tensions [1] - The copper processing fee is recovering amid expectations of reduced smelting, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to domestic and international favorable policies [2] - Lithium prices are rebounding strongly due to ongoing supply disruptions, while silicon prices are expected to remain volatile without significant improvements in the fundamentals [2] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold has been included in the category of imported goods subject to tariffs, leading to a temporary price surge above $3,500 per ounce on COMEX [1] - The U.S. government is expected to clarify that imported gold bars should not be subject to tariffs, which may stabilize the market [1] - The price difference between COMEX gold and London gold has narrowed to $4.9 per ounce as of August 8 [1] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventories increased by 35,400 tons, with significant production increases in China [2] - **Aluminum**: The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 44.05 million tons, with mixed production trends in the aluminum rod industry [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 8.9% to 75,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply disruptions and increased production [2] - **Silicon**: The average cost of metal silicon is 10,028.9 yuan per ton, with a slight increase in production but overall supply exceeding demand [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Xinyi Silver Tin - Shengda Resources - Zijin Mining - Shandong Gold - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Yintai Gold - Zhaojin Mining [1][2]

Group 1: CPI Expectations - July CPI is expected to rise, with Bloomberg analysts predicting a month-on-month increase of +0.2% and a year-on-year increase of +2.8%[2] - Core CPI is forecasted to increase by +0.3% month-on-month and +3.0% year-on-year[2] - The Federal Reserve's Inflation Nowcasting predicts a month-on-month increase of +0.16% for CPI and +0.24% for core CPI, with year-on-year increases of +2.72% and +3.04% respectively[2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The expectation of a rate cut has increased due to geopolitical easing, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 2.43% and 3.87% respectively[3] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6.7 basis points to 4.283% and the 2-year yield rising by 8.1 basis points to 3.762%[3] - The dollar index decreased by 0.97% to 98.18, while spot gold prices rose by 1.02% to $3,397 per ounce[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI for July recorded at 50.1, below the expected 51.5, indicating a slowdown in service sector growth[3] - New orders fell to 50.3 and the employment index dropped to 46.4, suggesting weakening demand in the services sector[3] - The New York Fed's consumer survey indicated a one-year inflation expectation of 3.09%, up from 3.02%[3] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The implementation of tariffs may lead to further inflationary pressures, with the potential for CPI to rise in the coming months[4] - There is a risk that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could lead to an inflation rebound if executed too aggressively[4] - The nomination of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board may increase internal disagreements regarding future interest rate paths[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for metals, copper, and aluminum, suggesting an increase in allocation [8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for price increases in lithium due to supply disruptions, particularly from large mines in Jiangxi facing production halts [2][5]. - Industrial metals have rebounded, driven by a weaker dollar and renewed anti-involution sentiment, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 1.4% and 1.7% respectively [6][24]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on their value reassessment amid geopolitical tensions and supply chain developments [5]. Summary by Sections Lithium and Supply Dynamics - Lithium supply is expected to tighten significantly due to potential production halts in Jiangxi, leading to a substantial reduction in the annual supply-demand surplus [2][5]. - The report notes that domestic mining regulations are becoming stricter, which may further impact lithium production [5]. Precious Metals - The report suggests focusing on gold stocks for a potential second wave of market activity this year, recommending an increase in allocation as gold prices stabilize above $3,500 per ounce [4]. - The analysis indicates that gold stocks may experience a quarterly resonance across price, valuation, and style dimensions [4]. Strategic and Energy Metals - The report identifies strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten as having significant upside potential due to government policies and market dynamics [5]. - It mentions that the price of rare earths has shown improvement, with Baotou Steel Rare Earth's price for rare earth concentrate rising to 19,100 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [5]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are experiencing price fluctuations, with copper and aluminum showing signs of recovery due to macroeconomic factors and expectations of interest rate cuts [6][24]. - The report notes that the overall demand for copper and aluminum is likely to decline in the second half of the year, but potential policy support could stabilize prices [6]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector outperformed the broader market, with a 5.24% increase compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 2.11% rise [14]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao, are highlighted for their strong performance [6][22].