金十整理：美联储"等等党"和"行动派"各行其是，会议纪要将揭晓方向 在美联储会议纪要公布前，梳理6月会议以来，美联储官员就利率和经济前景发表的公开讲话，可以看 出倾向于观望等待的官员占多数，"早则7月晚则9月"？还需会议纪要进一步明确走向。 等等党： 1. 美联储主席鲍威尔：无法断言7月降息是否过早。没有必要急于改变利率。如果通胀压力确实保持受 控，我们将更早而非更晚降息，但我不愿具体指向某次议息会议。 2. 美联储威廉姆斯： 美联储目前的利率立场使我们有时间密切分析新收到的数据，评估不断变化的前 景，并评估实现我们双重任务目标的风险平衡。 3. 美联储理事巴尔：目前数据显示没有紧迫的理由进行降息。不能忽视关税带来的通胀风险。货币政策 已处于良好位置，准备等待以观察经济状况的变化。 4. 美联储施密德：在做出任何利率决策之前，美联储有时间研究关税对通胀的影响。观望的做法是合适 的。 5. 美联储哈玛克（非2025年票委）：在降息之前仍需加强观察。通胀的改善进展非常缓慢。我接近美联 储点阵图的上端位置。 6. 美联储戴利（非2025年票委）：关税可能不会导致通胀大幅或持续飙升，对"秋季"降息持开放态度。 我一直 ...

特朗普关税带来的通胀压力，预计将从7月开始大规模显现？ 据追风交易台最新消息，巴克莱援引NLP分析和一线市场情报称，美国零售商将从7月初开始大规模涨价，重点聚焦返校购物季。报告指出，承担30%更 高关税的货物将在6月底或7月初到达美国港口，并在7月底的返校季节开始进入商店，因此更广泛的关税相关涨价效应将从6月至7月开始显现。 这将推动通胀在今年下半年回升。巴克莱表示，尽管5月CPI数据表现温和，但关税导致的价格传导效应即将显现，预计核心CPI将因关税升至3.6%。 几乎所有企业都在讨论涨价、降库存 报告显示，对标普1500企业的财报电话会议的NLP分析发现，在2025年第二季度报告季节中，关税和贸易讨论占据了约90%的电话会议记录，远超2002年 以来的历史水平。平均而言，每次电话会议提到"贸易"和"关税"超过12次。 值得注意的是，"价格"和"提价"的讨论变得更加突出，使得2025年第二季度的覆盖率达到78%，几乎与2008年底和2009年初的79%峰值持平。企业高管在 当前报告季度更频繁地描述价格为"高"或"增加"，而较少提及"低"或"有竞争力"的价格。 这类价格讨论的净值（"高"减去"低"）与标题CPI ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/7/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 736.50 | +3.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 659,461 | +4304↑ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 26.5 | +0.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has lowered the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 2.75%, marking the first rate cut since 2020, in response to external uncertainties and to support economic growth amid a moderate inflation outlook [2][5][7] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut the OPR is a preventive measure aimed at maintaining Malaysia's robust growth path in light of a downward risk balance for growth prospects, primarily due to global trade slowdown and weak market sentiment [2][6] - This rate cut follows a 12-month tightening cycle that ended in May 2023, when the statutory reserve requirement was also reduced, injecting approximately 19 billion ringgit (4.5 billion USD) into the banking system [2][5] Economic Outlook - BNM expects inflation to remain moderate, with projections indicating it will be below 3% by 2025, compared to 1.8% in the previous year [2][6] - The central bank anticipates limited price pressures from global commodity prices and domestic reforms, which are expected to have a controlled overall impact on inflation [6][7] Currency Performance - The Malaysian ringgit has appreciated over 5% against the US dollar this year, driven by government encouragement for companies to repatriate overseas earnings [3][7] - Despite a solid domestic economic foundation, external uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs on Malaysian exports to the US, may impact growth prospects [3][4][7] Future Expectations - Economists predict that BNM may implement further rate cuts in September or November, reflecting a continued dovish stance [3] - The central bank will closely monitor developments and assess the balance of risks to domestic growth and inflation [4][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff situation has slightly heated up, but the uncertainty has decreased. Some long - position holders chose to take profits, causing the precious metals market to decline under pressure. The recent economic "soft data" in the US, such as inflation expectations and consumer confidence, has significantly improved compared to the initial period of tariff announcements. As the overall tariff uncertainty has slowed down, countries are reaching agreements with the US through negotiation and compromise, leading to a continuous increase in market risk appetite. The VIX volatility index is at a low level, and the upward movement of gold prices has been continuously hindered [2]. - Driven by the strong performance in June (+$7.6 billion), global gold ETF holdings increased by $38 billion in the first half of 2025. Against the backdrop of global geopolitical uncertainty, the safe - haven investment demand for gold remains relatively stable. Whether core countries can reach an agreement with the US before the deadline is the key factor for the subsequent trend of gold prices. If the trade negotiations progress optimistically, gold prices may continue to be under pressure [2]. - The formal passage of Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has intensified market concerns about the long - term fiscal problems of the US government, which may accelerate the global de - dollarization process, weaken the demand for the US dollar as a traditional safe - haven asset, and boost the monetary attribute of gold [2]. - In the case of silver, the global de - stocking cycle has led to a continuously tight supply - demand structure. Coupled with the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve helping to repair its industrial attribute, silver prices are expected to remain resilient. There is still some room for the gold - silver ratio to repair, but short - term correction risks need to be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 766.82 yuan/gram, down 9.4 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8,899 yuan/kilogram, down 54 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract position of Shanghai gold was 181,258 lots, an increase of 2,127 lots; the main contract position of Shanghai silver was 327,567 lots, a decrease of 10,577 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 129,215 lots, a decrease of 10,912 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract was 94,543 lots, an increase of 3,196 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 21,585 kilograms, an increase of 27 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,320,909 kilograms, a decrease of 13,822 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 763.39 yuan/gram, down 8.49 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8,864 yuan/kilogram, down 33 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 3.43 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.91 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 35 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 21 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 946.51 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,935.15 tons, an increase of 66.41 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 201,980 contracts, an increase of 6,976 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC was 63,400 contracts, an increase of 453 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.98%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 16%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.55%, a decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 20.54%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump stated on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and he was planning to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals. He would impose a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. He also called on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to resign immediately and said that a new study by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) found that tariffs had no impact on inflation [2]. - The UK will not be able to reach an agreement on steel and aluminum trade with the US this week, missing the July 9 deadline set by the White House, but is still expected to reach an agreement by the end of the month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - International crude oil prices are affected by factors such as the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, OPEC+ production increases, and Trump's tariff policies, showing a weak performance on the day but still supported by fundamentals. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the current low inventory provides strong support. The effectiveness of PX in the future depends on unexpected factors. PTA is facing new device commissions in the third quarter, with a time mismatch with PX. PTA demand is weakening due to factors such as reduced production by polyester factories, and the inventory relative value is at a five - year high, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak situation. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to price drops. PTA is still supported without significant polyester production cuts, but may weaken if production cuts expand. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain is tilting towards raw materials. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 8, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was $68.33 per barrel, up 0.59%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $70.15 per barrel, up 0.82%. On July 7, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577 per ton, down 0.30%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $715.5 per ton, down 0.14%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $841.67 per ton, up 0.24% [1] - **PTA**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,710 yuan per ton, unchanged; the settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, down 0.46%; the settlement price was 4,786 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,798 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,805 yuan per ton, up 0.31%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $635 per ton on July 7, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 76 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the basis was 95 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan [1] - **PX**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the settlement price was 6,696 yuan per ton, up 0.33%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of PX was 6,725 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $848 per ton, up 0.71%; the spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $817 per ton on July 7, up 0.25%. The PXN spread was $264.67 per ton on July 7, up 1.44%; the PX - MX spread was $126.17 per ton on July 7, up 2.44%. The basis was 29 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [1] - **PR**: On July 8, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,866 yuan per ton, down 0.10%; the settlement price was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were both 5,922 yuan per ton, down 0.64%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; in the South China market, it was 6,000 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The basis in the East China market was 79 yuan per ton, an increase of 1 yuan; in the South China market, it was 134 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: On July 8, 2025, the CCFEI price indices of polyester fibers such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D remained unchanged. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,700 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, down 0.26%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,945 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [2] Operating Conditions - On July 8, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, 87.30%, 71.93%, and 61.22% respectively. The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber decreased by 7 and 6 percentage points respectively, while that of polyester chips increased by 4 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical upgrades for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,710 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the daily trading volume being 850,100 lots. PX prices are in a consolidation phase, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,696 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), and the daily trading volume being 180,100 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,866 yuan per ton (down 0.03%), and the daily trading volume being 32,800 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

Macro News - The U.S. government will announce tariff letters or agreements with trade partners starting from July 7, with a potential return to "reciprocal tariffs" for countries that do not reach agreements by August 1 [1] - President Trump signed an executive order to review and potentially eliminate tax credits for solar and wind energy projects, directing the Treasury to phase out these credits [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated plans to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to discuss trade and other issues [1] Institutional Views - The deadline for tariff negotiations has been extended to August 1, with new tariff rates ranging from 25% to 40% set to take effect [1] - Financial markets reacted calmly, with mixed performance in major U.S. stock indices and fluctuations in the dollar index [1] - Precious metals are expected to continue fluctuating, with trading strategies suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1] - COMEX gold is trading between $3,250 and $3,480 per ounce, while COMEX silver is between $35.0 and $37.4 per ounce; domestic gold futures are between 750 and 800 yuan per gram, and silver futures between 8,450 and 9,075 yuan per kilogram [1]

Group 1 - Japan's actual GDP is estimated to decrease by 0.2% with a 10% reciprocal tariff and by 0.4% if the tariff increases to 25% [2][5] - The export value of Japan in 2024 is projected to be 107.0879 trillion yen, with exports to the US amounting to 21.2947 trillion yen, representing about 20% of total exports [2] - The total export value of aircraft parts, including those exported to the US, is 307.9 billion yen, with 76.5% of this amount going to the US [4] Group 2 - The export ratio of construction and mining machinery to the US exceeds 50%, with Komatsu's sales in North America accounting for 30% of its total sales [5] - The machine tool and metal processing machinery export ratio to the US is 23.4%, with US orders making up about 20% of total orders for Japanese manufacturers [5] - The Japan Economic Federation expressed concerns that the new tariff rates would have a significant impact on Japanese companies' investment strategies and profitability [5] Group 3 - The Imperial Credit Corporation predicted a 5% increase in domestic bankruptcies in Japan for the fiscal year 2025, reaching 10,574 cases, if tariffs rise to 24% [6] - The chief researcher at the Imperial Credit Corporation indicated that if tariffs increase to 25%, the number of bankrupt companies is likely to rise further [6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by President Trump is expected to significantly impact the copper market and related stocks, with immediate reactions observed in stock prices and futures trading [4][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Copper-related stocks in the A-share market experienced volatility, with Northern Copper rising over 5% before turning negative, while Zijin Mining and Pengxin Resources fell by over 3% and 2%, respectively [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, China Daye Nonferrous Metals saw a rise of over 13%, and Jiangxi Copper rose by over 3% at one point [2]. Group 2: Tariff Announcement Details - Trump announced plans to raise copper tariffs to 50%, which is earlier and higher than industry expectations, although the effective date remains unspecified [4][5]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce confirmed the completion of an investigation into the proposed tariffs, aligning copper tariffs with those already imposed on steel and aluminum [5]. Group 3: Impact on Copper Prices - Following the tariff announcement, New York copper futures surged by 17% at one point, closing with a 13.12% increase, marking the largest single-day gain since 1989 [10]. - Analysts predict that the clarity of the tariff implementation timeline will significantly affect non-U.S. market pricing, potentially leading to a decrease in copper prices in non-U.S. regions [12]. - The 50% tariff is expected to add approximately $5,000 per ton or $2.25 per pound to U.S. copper prices, which may lead to demand destruction risks due to the current high price levels [12].

Group 1 - The uncertainty created by tariffs is affecting the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [1][2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell is willing to wait for clear evidence of the impact of the trade war on prices before making any rate cuts [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is perceived to be high at 63%, but some analysts believe the Fed may hold steady [1][2] Group 2 - UBS predicts that tariff levels could reach around 15% by the end of the year, contributing to moderate stagflation risks [2] - The Fed has raised its forecasts for unemployment and inflation for the end of the year, indicating concerns about economic conditions [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut this month are below 5%, but optimism for a policy easing by December is at 96% [2]