Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in international copper prices, reaching a three-month high, driven by increased demand and supply constraints [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traders are stockpiling copper in the U.S. ahead of potential tariff increases by the Trump administration, aiming to lock in lower prices [3] - U.S. demand for copper is rising due to the restart of infrastructure projects, with orders for electrical wires and construction-grade copper increasing significantly [3] - LME copper inventories are declining, with warehouse stocks nearing 500,000 tons, tightening the supply-demand balance and contributing to price increases [3] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global copper mining is facing challenges, particularly in South America where strikes in Chile and Peru, along with transportation issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo, are impacting production [3] - Smelters are relying on existing inventories due to insufficient mining output, exacerbating the supply issues [3] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Short-term volatility in copper prices may occur due to tariff speculation, but long-term trends will depend on the actual implementation of U.S. infrastructure legislation and recovery of production in South America [4] - Investors should monitor upstream and downstream movements in the copper supply chain, including the operational rates of domestic copper rod manufacturers and inventory changes in quarterly reports from overseas copper companies [5] - The core logic of copper pricing remains rooted in supply-demand dynamics, with short-term tariff speculation being a temporary influence [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In H1 2025, the LPG futures market was in a range - bound state with weak endogenous drivers, but price volatility increased significantly due to macro and geopolitical events [5][26]. - Without major geopolitical and macro disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will further increase. Although China's chemical demand base will expand with new device launches, weak downstream product demand and low device profits restrict raw material demand release and cap the upside of LPG prices [1][5][102]. - Based on the expectation of a medium - term decline in crude oil prices and a global LPG oversupply, there is a certain downward driver for LPG prices in H2 2025. Considering the current price level, the short - term downside space may be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies can be monitored [5][102]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil Reality Fundamentals Are Fair but Expectations Are Weak, and the Cost Center May Further Decline in Q4 - In H1 2025, international oil prices fluctuated repeatedly due to increased geopolitical and macro disturbances. Brent once exceeded $80/barrel at the beginning of the year but then fell back. Trump's policies had a more prominent negative impact on the oil market [12]. - In April, Trump's tariff policy and OPEC's production increase decision led to an accelerated oil price decline, with Brent falling below $60/barrel. After the tariff conflict improved marginally, oil prices rebounded [13]. - In June, the Israel - Iran conflict increased the geopolitical premium of crude oil, and Brent approached $80/barrel. After the cease - fire, oil prices quickly fell back [14]. - Currently, the crude oil market has returned to its fundamental logic. The short - term fundamentals are fair, but there may be oversupply in Q4, and the cost support for downstream energy - chemical products may weaken [15]. H1 2025 LPG Market Operated Weakly Overall, and Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflicts Caused Disturbances - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was in a shock state with no prominent contradictions. Minor disturbances had limited impact, and the spot market was not tight due to weak downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific [26]. - In Q2 2025, the impact of macro and geopolitical factors increased significantly. The US - imposed tariffs led to a change in the LPG trade pattern, an increase in PDH device losses, and complex price transmission. After the tariff reduction, the market remained cautious. In June, the Israel - Iran conflict briefly boosted the LPG market, but after the cease - fire, it returned to a loose supply - demand pattern [27][28]. H2 2025 LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and US Export Space Will Further Expand OPEC Eases Production Cuts, and Middle East LPG Supply Has Growth Potential - OPEC's production policy has shifted, with production quotas increasing. Although actual production increases may be lower than quotas, LPG supply is expected to rise. Middle East LPG shipments have gradually increased, and CP prices have declined [42][44]. - Iran's LPG shipments have remained stable this year, and after the temporary delay in June due to the Israel - Iran conflict, they are expected to resume in July [44]. US LPG Supply Keeps Growing, and Export Space Will Further Expand after Terminal Expansion - US NGL and LPG production have been rising. With limited domestic consumption growth, the US needs to export more. After the tariff adjustment, the US - China LPG trade window has reopened but not fully recovered [55]. - The expansion of US export terminals will increase export capacity by about 950,000 tons/month in July, further opening up export space. The future of US - China trade depends on tariff negotiations [60]. Russian Gas Supply Shows an Obvious Growth Trend and Has Become a New LPG Raw Material Source for China - China's imports of Russian LPG have been increasing. From January to May this year, imports reached 316,000 tons, a 95% year - on - year increase. Russian LPG has a price advantage and stable supply, which has suppressed the spot price in North China [79]. China's PDH New Capacity Launch Cycle Continues, but Profits Remain a Constraint on Demand Release - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the launch of downstream chemical devices. About 5.31 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be launched this year, but PDH industry profits have been low, restricting demand release and new device launch progress [83]. - The US tariff policy still poses risks to China's LPG raw material procurement. If tariffs rise again, PDH device profits will be under pressure, and industry demand may decline [85]. LPG Supply - Demand Pattern May Remain Loose, and Market Upside Resistance Remains Significant - Without major disturbances, the LPG supply - demand pattern is expected to remain loose in H2 2025. Supply from the Middle East and the US will increase, while weak downstream demand and low device profits will limit price increases [102].

2025年07月04日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | 基本面：美国大漂亮法案在众议院通过，美国非农数据超预期，降息预期延迟。国内周度库存增加 0.57 万吨， | | | 铜 | 华东华南平水铜升水 80 元和 30 元。伦敦结构 109 美金 back。 | | | | 交易策略：突破 1 万美金后或有震荡整理，但上行方向不变。 | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.41%，收于 20580 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 330 元/吨， | | | | | LME 价格 2608.5 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境呈现利好。但沪铝基本面面临需求走弱及成本支撑趋弱的双重压力，存在潜在下行风险， | | | | 建议谨慎看多。 | | | | 风险提示：海内外宏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weak. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the oscillating rise of steel prices [2]. - Policy利好 expectations are fermenting, and market sentiment is warm. Rebar futures prices continue to oscillate higher. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and weekly output is increasing, with supply pressure reaching a high level. Demand is running smoothly, and high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded under the stimulation of speculative demand, but they are still at a low level in the same period, and the improvement space in the off - season is questionable. The supply and demand at both ends have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season. The relatively good news is that the inventory is low, the real - world contradiction is not significant, and recent policy利好 is fermenting, supporting the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weak. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the oscillating rise of steel prices [2]. - The calculation method of the rise - fall range is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night sessions and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night sessions as the starting price, and the day - session closing price on the same day as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered oscillating and slightly weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered oscillating and slightly strong, and a rise of more than 1% is considered a rise. Oscillating and slightly strong/weak are only for intraday views, and no distinction is made for the short - term and medium - term [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Policy利好 expectations are fermenting, market sentiment is warm, and rebar futures prices continue to oscillate higher [3]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills are actively producing, weekly output is increasing, and supply pressure has reached a high level. Demand is running smoothly, high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded under the stimulation of speculative demand, but they are still at a low level in the same period, and the improvement space in the off - season is questionable [3]. - The supply and demand at both ends have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season. The relatively good news is that the inventory is low, the real - world contradiction is not significant, and recent policy利好 is fermenting, supporting the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the soda ash market has been experiencing a downward trend in prices since late April, currently stabilizing around 1150 yuan/ton, leading to expectations of a potential price rebound due to historical low levels [1] - The primary issue in the soda ash industry remains oversupply, with ongoing capacity expansion and no clear plans for capacity exit, indicating that a market reversal will take time [1] - Short-term production is affected by profit declines, with some maintenance schedules moved forward to March and May, resulting in fewer plans for the traditional maintenance peak in July and August [1] Group 2 - Demand for soda ash is under pressure due to weakening prices in photovoltaic glass, which is expected to lead to reduced production and further suppress soda ash demand [1] - The soda ash price is unlikely to change its downward trend until there is a substantial reduction in supply, although there may be short-term trading opportunities based on changes in the holding levels of spot and futures traders [2] - The overall industry reversal is contingent upon a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Palladium prices are gaining attention in the precious metals market, with expectations of breaking the 300 yuan/gram barrier amid significant increases in gold and platinum prices. However, achieving this goal requires careful consideration of supply-demand dynamics, industry changes, macroeconomic conditions, and capital flows [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The palladium market is at a critical juncture between traditional demand and emerging sectors. While traditional automotive demand remains dominant, it faces challenges from the shift towards electrification. Global sales of fuel vehicles are declining, but the rise of hybrid vehicles (HEV/PHEV) supports palladium demand, as they require three times more palladium than pure electric vehicles. Additionally, the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is accelerating, with each vehicle requiring 50-100 grams of palladium catalyst, potentially leading to a new growth point for palladium demand [1][3]. Supply Challenges - The palladium market faces significant supply challenges, with over 75% of global production concentrated in Russia and South Africa. Geopolitical risks and power crises are affecting these major producing countries. Western sanctions have limited palladium exports from Russia, while South Africa is experiencing frequent production cuts due to electricity shortages. Although recycling technology has improved, accounting for 15%-20% of total demand, it cannot fully compensate for the shortfall in primary mine supply [3]. Market Sentiment - Recent price increases in palladium are driven by market sentiment, influenced by the recovery of the automotive industry, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and supply chain restructuring. Global fuel vehicle sales rose by 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, breaking a three-year decline. Major automakers like Tesla and Volkswagen are accelerating their hybrid vehicle strategies, further boosting palladium demand. Additionally, production cuts in Russia and South Africa due to geopolitical tensions and extreme weather have led to the lowest visible global palladium inventory in nearly a decade, raising concerns about supply shortages [3][5]. Capital Flows - Palladium is becoming a key choice for capital seeking safe-haven assets due to its industrial and financial attributes. In the context of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies causing divergence in the precious metals sector, palladium prices have risen against the trend. The A-share precious metals sector has seen significant net inflows into leading stocks, indicating strong market interest in palladium [5]. Technical Analysis and Price Trends - Technically, palladium prices are expected to maintain a short-term strong oscillation trend. Domestic palladium prices are fluctuating in the range of 272-274 yuan/gram, with an average price of 273 yuan/gram, up by 2 yuan from the previous day. International palladium prices have also risen, with spot palladium increasing by 8.00%, reaching a peak of 1149.99 USD/ounce. However, to break the 300 yuan/gram barrier, palladium must overcome several resistance levels, particularly at 250 yuan/gram and 265 yuan/gram [5]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of palladium prices will depend on several key variables, including the stability of fuel vehicle sales and the continued increase in the share of hybrid vehicles, which are crucial for supporting traditional palladium demand. The acceleration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle commercialization will also drive demand growth in emerging sectors. Furthermore, the stability of supply and advancements in palladium recycling technology will significantly impact palladium prices [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the end of a six-week rising trend in Malaysian palm oil futures, driven by declining production and strong demand, raising questions about the potential for price rebound [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the factors contributing to the recent price trends, including a decrease in palm oil production and robust demand, which have influenced market dynamics [1] - It poses questions regarding the future supply and demand landscape for Malaysian palm oil, indicating uncertainty in price movements [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，钢价承压运行 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢产业矛盾在累积，建筑钢厂提产，螺纹钢产量环比增加，供应迎来回升，关注后续增幅 情况。同时，螺纹高频需求指标延续下行，季节性走弱特征明显，弱势需求易抑制钢价。目前来 看，螺纹钢供应有所回升，而需求表现疲弱，供需矛盾在累积，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存 偏低，短期螺纹延续维持震荡寻底态势，关注今日钢联公布的产销数据情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **metal industry**, particularly **strategic metals** and **new materials** for the first half of 2025, highlighting the revaluation of strategic metals and opportunities in new materials due to technological iterations [1][3][29]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Strategic Metals Pricing**: By mid-2025, the pricing of strategic metals has fully reflected actual metal prices, influenced by global uncertainties and U.S. tariff policies [1][3]. - **Focus on Key Metals**: Emphasis on rare earth magnets, tungsten, and antimony, which have strong domestic resource control [1][3]. - **Export Controls**: China has implemented export controls on gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium to counter U.S. technology restrictions, leading to significant price increases in overseas markets compared to domestic prices [1][6][9][11]. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The supply-demand balance is expected to improve gradually, potentially shifting from surplus to shortage, which will drive prices upward [2][12]. Specific Metal Insights - **Tungsten**: - The tungsten quota has decreased for two consecutive years due to resource depletion, with demand linked to macroeconomic conditions and growth in sectors like 3C and military, pushing prices to historical highs [4][15][16]. - Current tungsten prices exceed 170,000 yuan per ton, with production challenges due to low ore grades [14][15]. - **Antimony**: - Antimony market is strong, with domestic supply accounting for over 60% of global production. The photovoltaic industry is a major driver of demand, expected to grow as installation capacity expands [4][17][18]. - **Molybdenum**: - Molybdenum prices are expected to remain high due to stable production and lack of new mining projects, with demand primarily from stainless steel and special steel applications [19][22]. New Materials Sector - **Growth Opportunities**: The electronic and military sectors are highlighted as key areas for growth in new materials, driven by advancements in AI and electronic components [5][23][24]. - **Technological Upgrades**: The demand for upgraded electronic materials is increasing, particularly for components like capacitors and inductors, which require smaller particle sizes and higher performance [23][24]. Geopolitical and Market Impacts - **China's Dominance**: China holds a significant advantage in the smelting of strategic metals, with over 90% of rare earth separation occurring domestically, despite U.S. technology restrictions [1][10][11][12]. - **U.S. Dependency**: The U.S. remains highly dependent on China for strategic metals, with significant portions of its tungsten, antimony, and rare earth needs met by Chinese imports [11]. Emerging Trends - **Military Sector Recovery**: The military industry is showing signs of recovery, particularly in aerospace, with increased demand for strategic metals [26]. - **New Applications**: The demand for tantalum, niobium, and titanium in high-temperature applications and aerospace is expected to grow, driven by advancements in technology and military needs [28]. Conclusion - The strategic metals market is poised for growth, supported by strong demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors. Companies in this sector, such as Jinchuan Group and Xiamen Tungsten, are recommended for their promising outlooks [29].