特朗普总统真是做生意的天才啊，他忽悠全世界国家和地区，谁对中国加征关税，就能获得美国对等关税的"免死金牌"。 《华尔街日报》5月23日报道说，特朗普政府最近在与各国的谈判中，提出了一个要求，那就是对中国商品加征关税，作为与美国达成贸易协议的条件。 目前看来这项要求，是美国与其他国家地区，签署贸易协议的"硬性条件"。 这也怪不得，美国"解放日"以来的关税政策，现在已经一个多月过去了，达成的贸易协议国家，只有跟美国穿一条裤子的，同属盎格鲁撒克逊体系的英国。 连加拿大和澳大利亚这样的国家，都无法跟美国谈拢贸易协议。 《华尔街日报》在报道中，提到了一个细节，不具名的白宫官员指出，美国已经对欧盟提出了要求，坚持让欧盟加入其对中国的经济施压行动，并希望欧洲 国家对中国商品征收新关税。 除此之外对于美国而言，特朗普只不过是一个"过客"，激进的全球对等关税政策，最多只能维持4年，这是所有人都明白的。 特朗普之前已经干了一届，这次他干完四年就不可能连任了，那么对于世界各国而言，有必要冒着跟中国彻底翻脸的风险，配合特朗普这货加大对华关税 吗？ 到时候特朗普是舒服了，名利双收、风光卸任，其他国家就要面临中国的各种断供。 但是由于中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

近日发布的行业调查显示，韩国六月份企业信心有所回升，部分得益于全球贸易局势的缓解。然而，尽管指数出现上升，这一数字依然显示出韩国经济的疲 软趋势，且连续三十个月低于一百，表明悲观情绪仍占主导地位。 此份报告反映出韩国经济在全球不确定性环境中的脆弱性。尽管全球贸易环境有所改善，但韩国内部需求的持续低迷和贸易风险仍是影响韩国企业信心的关 键因素。要想实现经济的全面复苏，韩国不仅需要在短期内缓解贸易风险，还需要在内需增长方面采取切实有效的措施，才能为企业提供更加稳定的信心基 础。 综上所述，韩国经济的复苏仍然面临多重挑战，尤其是在全球经济环境尚未完全稳定的情况下。未来，政策支持和外部市场的持续改善将成为企业信 心恢复的关键因素。 根据韩国全经联的月度调查数据，六月份，韩国六百强企业的景气调查指数（BSI）为九十四点七，比五月份上升了九点七。该指数的读数低于一百，意味 着悲观情绪依然占据主导，而一百以上则表明乐观情绪占优。尽管六月的数据较前一个月有所回升，但这一指数自二零二二年四月以来已连续三十九个月低 于一百，反映出韩国企业在面对全球不确定性时的谨慎态度。 从行业表现来看，韩国制造业的BSI指数出现了显著反弹，达到 ...

中美在日内瓦再度交锋，中方当场点名美国犯下的错误，值得注意的是，这次有47国都投下了赞成票。那么，中方的表态有哪些要点？这场交锋传递出怎样 的信息？ 5月20日至21日，世界贸易组织（WTO）总理事会第二次会议在瑞士日内瓦召开，在这场大会上，中国主动设置议程，并提交了《关于当前形势下支持多边 贸易体制的声明》书面提案，明确指出美国推动的所谓"对等关税"政策违反了WTO的基本规则，不仅损害了发展中国家的利益，还可能破坏全球贸易体系 的稳定性。 美国代表则辩称，WTO未能有效解决贸易逆差和非市场政策问题，并呼吁改革现有体系。美方认为，中国利用WTO规则保护自身"非市场行为"，而美国需 通过单边措施维护利益。针对美方的言论，中国代表当场指出，美国近年来多次以"国家安全"为借口实施关税壁垒，例如对钢铝产品加征惩罚性关税，相关 措施已被WTO裁定违规，但美方仍拒绝执行裁决，甚至阻挠上诉机构运作。 不过，在这场大会上，国际社会的多数声音站在多边主义一边，47个国家在会议中投下赞成票，支持中国及新加坡、瑞士等国提出的关于维护多边贸易体制 的共同声明。此外，包括巴西、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦等国在内的一众成员对单边主义行为表达了共同 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices continue to weaken as market concerns over global trade conflicts diminish following Trump's decision to delay high tariffs on the EU until July 9 [1] - The market's reaction to the delay in tariffs has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates has led traders to withdraw bets on a rate cut in June, with expectations now shifting towards a pause until the July meeting [2] Group 2 - Trump announced the cancellation of the planned 50% tariffs on EU goods set to take effect on June 1, following a conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [2] - The extension of trade negotiations until July 9 indicates a potential easing of trade tensions between the US and the EU [2] - Gold prices faced pressure after a significant spike the previous week, with current support levels noted around $3,330 or $3,320, and resistance levels at $3,360 or $3,390 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The postponement of high tariffs on the EU by President Trump has eased market concerns over global trade conflicts, reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, multiple macroeconomic risks continue to limit the downside potential for gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - COMEX gold is currently trading at $3338.20 per ounce, down 0.58%, with a daily high of $3356.00 and a low of $3329.30 [2]. - The opening price today was $3355.60, indicating a downward trend in the short term [1][2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on the dollar [1]. - Concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook are expected to support gold prices despite short-term declines [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise by June 2025 due to factors such as the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by Asian countries, and trade tensions [1]. - Key risk factors to monitor include the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes, trade negotiations between the U.S. and other major economies, and changes in market expectations regarding the dollar [1].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing slight pressure due to a delay in high tariffs on the EU announced by President Trump, which has reduced market concerns over global trade conflicts and subsequently weakened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 26, gold prices reported at $3347.54 per ounce, with a decline of 0.28%, reaching a high of $3356.32 and a low of $3331.05 during the session [1] - The overall trend for gold last week was a volatile upward movement, with a weekly low of $3204 and a high of $3365, closing the week at $3359 [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The delay in tariff implementation has temporarily pressured gold prices, but concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook continue to support gold's value [2] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting additional pressure on the dollar [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, influenced by the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by major Asian countries, and trade-related anxieties [2]

特朗普再发关税威胁！ 当地时间5月23日，特朗普针对苹果公司和欧盟的关税表态，令苹果公司股价、欧洲主要股票市场以及美股均出现大幅波动。 特朗普对关税连续表态全球金融市场巨震 5月23日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上，对不迎合他贸易政策的公司和地区发难。 对于苹果公司，特朗普表示，如果在美国销售的iPhone不是美国生产和制造，将征收至少25%关税。特朗普表示，他很早就告诉苹果CEO蒂姆.库克，希望 其在美国销售的iPhone将在美国制造和生产，而不是在印度或其他任何地方。 随后，他又对迟迟未能达成关税协议的欧盟进行谴责。他表示，欧盟成立的主要目的是"在贸易上占美国的便宜"，与他们打交道一直非常困难。特朗普 称，欧盟设置了强有力的贸易壁垒、增值税、荒谬的企业罚款、非货币贸易壁垒、操作货币、针对美国公司的不公正诉讼等。 特朗普表示，美国与欧盟的谈判毫无进展，因此建议从2025年6月1日起对欧盟直接征收50%的关税。如果产品在美国制造或生产，则不征收关税。 在特朗普施压下，正在交易的欧洲股市出现大幅下挫，截至发稿，欧洲斯托克50、德国DAX、法国CAC40指数下跌幅度均超过2%。汽车行业成为重灾 区，大众、奔驰、宝马 ...

Group 1 - The current confrontational trade policy stance of the US government is slowing down tariff negotiations between the US and Europe, exacerbating global trade fragmentation and weak external demand, which poses severe challenges to the already fragile European economic recovery [1] - The EU is willing to make concessions in purchasing US natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products but will not accept US demands regarding the cancellation of VAT, weakening digital regulation and taxation, or lowering food standards [2] - The US continues to impose a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products and maintains a 10% "baseline tariff" on almost all other goods, threatening additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, wood, critical minerals, and aerospace components [2] Group 2 - The uncertainty of US trade policies is severely impacting key European industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals, with nearly half of the EU's exports to the US in 2024 coming from these sectors [3] - Major European automotive companies like Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz have canceled their performance forecasts for the year, citing potential impacts on operating profits, cash flow, and profit margins due to ongoing trade barriers [3] - A recent internal survey by the European Pharmaceutical Industry Association indicates that ongoing tariff threats could lead to a shift of R&D and production from Europe to the US, with potential investments of €165 billion at risk in the next three months alone [4] Group 3 - Weak external demand and uncertainty surrounding US tariffs are undermining market confidence and deepening concerns about global trade fragmentation and the growth outlook for the European economy [5] - The European Commission has significantly downgraded its economic growth forecasts for the EU, predicting a GDP growth of 1.1% in 2025, down from previous estimates, due to the adverse effects of US trade policies [6] - The EU must take decisive action to enhance competitiveness and internal market integration to mitigate the negative impacts of US trade policy uncertainty on consumer and investment confidence [6]

1993年1月20日，美国举行了冷战结束后的第一次总统就职典礼。这次典礼上的演讲者是一位看似稳重且果断的中年男子，他的名字叫比尔·克林顿。 克林顿能够在1992年的总统选举中击败老布什并最终胜出，并非仅仅依靠其年轻的优势。他和他的妻子希拉里都是非常老练的政治人物，深谙权谋之道。克 林顿在美国总统宝座上的时机恰好与美国的"黄金时代"契合。 在当时，世界依然被苏联解体的巨大震动所影响，没有任何国家敢质疑和挑战美国的全球霸权。正是因为这样，克林顿试图为全球设定一种新的政治经济体 系，而这一计划几乎没有受到阻碍。因此，克林顿开始着手建立一个以美国为核心的全球剥削体系。 培养"经济白手套" 至今，这一体系仍然为美国带来丰厚的收益，甚至美国还试图运用这一框架来对中国进行打压。那么，克林顿为美国设计的这一剥削体系到底具备哪些独特 的优势呢？美国是否能够依靠过去的经验有效遏制中国的发展呢？接下来，我们将一一探讨。 在克林顿的战略布局中，俄罗斯作为廉价能源的供应国，而欧洲国家则承担了大部分的工业生产任务。美国则通过掌控高科技产业，赚取巨额财富。而冷战 后的俄罗斯在美国专家的建议下，几乎完全顺从美国的战略，直至今日，俄罗斯的经济 ...