Group 1 - The Singapore dollar has slightly weakened against the US dollar, with the USD/SGD rising by 0.1% to 1.2620 SGD [1] - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia's global economic and market research team indicates that the US dollar is likely to consolidate this week [1] - Upcoming US economic data, including the FOMC January meeting minutes and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, are not expected to significantly alter market expectations regarding Fed rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The market currently anticipates a high probability of a rate cut in June, which aligns with the research team's view [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in the prices of non-ferrous metal stocks, driven by favorable economic indicators and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) saw a rise of 6.63%, trading at HKD 23.16; Lingbao Gold (03330) increased by 5.72% to HKD 25.12; Jiangxi Copper (00358) rose by 5.25% to HKD 44.88; Shandong Gold (01787) gained 4.83% to HKD 40.36; and China Nonferrous Mining (01258) increased by 4.51% to HKD 15.07 [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January fell to 2.4% year-on-year, below expectations, with core CPI dropping to 2.5%, the lowest level since 2021, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities recently reported that in the context of global changes, countries are emphasizing resource security, which will increase additional demand for metals and enhance the valuation of related metal stocks [2] - Strategic metals expected to benefit from resource accumulation include gold and silver due to geopolitical tensions, as well as copper, aluminum, silver, and tin driven by AI and new energy developments [2] - Military-related metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony, along with essential metals like uranium, tantalum, and nickel, which have low production shares in China and the U.S., are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [2]

每经编辑｜杜宇 今日（2月16日）开盘，现货黄金、白银走低。现货白银今早一度跌逾3%。 据CME"美联储观察"数据，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率仅为9.8%，维持利率不变的概率为90.2%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率26.4%，维持 利率不变的概率为71.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为2.0%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为51.8%。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos更是撰文称，美国经济的各项关键指标正指向同一个积极方向，通胀正在下降，劳动力市场保持坚挺，经济增长稳固。这并非 最终定论，但已是美国经济有史以来最接近实现软着陆（即在避免经济衰退的同时遏制通胀）的一次。 投资者还将密切关注下周三公布的美联储会议纪要，以评估支持维持利率不变的官员与主张降息的官员之间的分歧。 数据显示，美国货币市场目前已完全计入7月份降息25个基点的预期，并预计2026年累计降息幅度约为60个基点。根据此前报道，芝商所"美联储观察工 具"显示，交易员对美联储6月实施降息的概率预期大幅攀升至83%(此前为49.9%)。 每日经济新闻综合证券时报、市场公开资料 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced slight gains last week, maintaining an upward trend above the 5-week moving average, indicating a bullish outlook for the future [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened the week at $4987.98 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $5119.05 on Wednesday, dipped to a low of $4878.77 on Thursday, and closed at $5042.63 on Friday, resulting in a weekly increase of $81.77 or 1.65% from the previous week's closing price of $4960.86 [1][3]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions initially drove gold prices higher, but comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying the urgency of interest rate cuts and a White House official refuting employment concerns led to fluctuations in gold prices [3][5]. - The market's reaction to the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which was below expectations, alleviated inflation concerns and reinforced expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices rebounded after touching a support level, remaining within a new bullish market space and above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a continued bullish outlook [7]. - Weekly analysis indicates that gold prices maintained their upward trend despite reduced momentum and volatility, with expectations for new highs supported by the 5-week moving average [7][9]. - Daily charts show that while the rebound momentum has slowed, the overall trend remains upward, with key support levels identified at $4990 and $4930, and resistance levels at $5100 and $5150 [9].

早上好，今天是除夕，来看一下春节长假期间需要关注哪些热点。 春节长假热点前瞻 2月20日，"美联储最爱通胀指标"2025年12月PCE数据及第四季度GDP初值将公布。此外，美联储1月FOMC会议纪要将在2月18日发布。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，如果俄罗斯方面同意，新一轮的和平谈判可能于2月17日或18日在美国举行。 日本政府已确定将于2月18日召集特别国会，现任高市内阁将集体辞职，新一任首相将投票选出。 DeepSeek V4预计2月中旬面世，重点改进编程能力。内部初步测试表明，V4在编程能力上超过了目前市场上的其他顶级模型，如Anthropic的Claude和 OpenAI的GPT系列。 2月15日至20日，首届印度人工智能峰会在新德里举行，英伟达CEO黄仁勋、谷歌CEO皮查伊等全球科技领袖确认参会。 美国最高法院定于2月20日宣判，就特朗普关税案作出裁决。大法官们预计还将在2月24日和25日发布判决，全球正屏息以待一项可能废除特朗普标志性关 税政策的裁决。美国联邦政府数据显示，这些争议性关税每月让进口商损失超过160亿美元。如果法院裁定关税违宪，将成为特朗普重返白宫以来面临的 最大法律挫败。该案件涉及对加 ...

2月15日，比特币价格继续剧烈波动，一度触及71000美元/枚的比特币再度直线跳水，以太坊一度跌近4%。 截至2月16日发稿，比特币报68894.51美元，跌幅1.32%。 另据媒体报道，美联储降息又将迎来重要变数。 2月20日周五，"美联储最爱通胀指标"去年12月PCE数据及第四季度GDP初值将公布。 近期比特币价格在69000美元附近波动，较去年10月的峰值已回落约40%。这波跌势始于去年底，当时超过190亿美元的多头头寸在一次剧烈的去杠杆进程中 被清算，终结了此前的强势涨幅。自那以后，币价一直难以站稳脚跟。进入2月初，抛压再次加剧。 多项指标预示，比特币一旦跌破60000美元大关，恐将引发新一轮的极端动荡。 根据Deribit的数据，比特币期权市场中规模最大的头寸集群是看跌 60000美元以下的合约。紧随其后的支撑位是比特币的200周均线（目前略高于58000美 元），不少技术分析师将其视为至关重要的生命线。 图片来源：每日经济新闻 祝裕 数据显示，加密货币市场全网近24小时有超11万人爆仓，3.31亿美元（约合人民币23亿元）资金灰飞烟灭。 | 1小时爆仓 | $302.71万 | 4小时爆仓 | $ ...

来源：滚动播报 金价在亚洲早盘时段因可能的头寸调整而下跌。现货金下跌0.3%，报每盎司5,025.48美元。不过，周五 弱于预期的美国CPI数据可能会限制金价跌幅。苏克敦金融的研究团队在评论中表示，该数据已促使市 场预期美联储将采取更激进的降息周期。该团队补充说："市场目前预计美联储在2026年将进行两次以 上的降息，首次降息预计在6-7月期间。"美联储降息预期的升温通常会提升该不计息贵金属的吸引力。 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月16日｜金价小幅回落，在温和的美国通胀数据推动金价重返每盎司5000美元上方后，交易员 获利了结。周一早盘，金价维持在每盎司5020美元附近，此前一个交易日上涨2.4%。美国1月CPI环比 上涨0.2%，缓解了市场对CPI更大涨幅的担忧，并为美联储降息提供支撑。金价在1月下旬飙升至每盎 司5595美元以上的创纪录水平，一轮投机性买盘将涨势推至临界点，随后在月末突然暴跌至4500美元下 方。自那以来，金价已在震荡中收复约半数失地。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 1% as of February 16, with Ethereum falling nearly 6% and SOL dropping close to 2% [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Over the past 24 hours, more than 117,000 individuals in the global cryptocurrency market faced liquidation, with a total liquidation amount of $330 million [1] - A strategist from Ned Davis Research indicated that Bitcoin's price could potentially fall to $31,000, representing a further decline of approximately 55% from current levels [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has surged, with traders now expecting an 83% chance of a rate cut in June [1] - As of February 16, the latest data shows a 9.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by March, down from a previous prediction of 19.6% [1]

2月15日，比特币价格继续剧烈波动，今日一度触及71000美元/枚的比特币再度直线跳水，截至发稿跌至69225.91美元/枚。以太坊更是跌超3%。 剧烈波动下，加密货币近24小时全球有超8万人爆仓。 | 1H爆仓 | $299.76万 | 4H爆仓 | $6427.42万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多更 | $103.05万 | 名車 | $5907.24万 | | 空单 | $196.71万 | 空单 | $520.19万 | | 12H爆仓 | $1.37亿 | 24H爆仓 | $2.14亿 | | 多車 | $9132.65万 | 名車 | $1.19亿 | | 空車 | $4563.94万 | 容更 | $9460.85万 | 消息面上，春节周来临，美联储降息又将迎来重要变数。 2月20日周五，"美联储最爱通胀指标"去年12月PCE数据及第四季度GDP初值将公布。 彭博经济预计，去年12月核心PCE物价指数环比或上涨0.3%，将同比推高至2.9%，显示年末通胀有所升温。尽管美国政府停摆带来干扰，但第四季度GDP 增速料将达到3.0%，高于市场预期的2.8%。 投资者还 ...