Market Performance - Developed markets experienced a broad increase during the Spring Festival, with MSCI Global rising by 1.1%, MSCI Developed Markets by 1.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets by 0.8% [8][14] - The strongest performance in developed markets was from the South Korean Composite Index, which rose by 5.5%, while the weakest was the Nikkei 225, which fell by 0.2% [8][14] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield saw the largest increase of 4.0 basis points, while Japan experienced the largest decrease of 9.3 basis points [8][16] Trading Sentiment - Trading volumes in major markets decreased during the Spring Festival, with the S&P 500's trading volume dropping to 3.6 billion shares and $503.7 billion [18] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong declined, with the short-selling ratio rising to 20.2%, indicating a historical low in sentiment [18][21] - In contrast, the North American investment sentiment, as measured by the NAAIM Manager Exposure Index, increased to 82.9%, reflecting a historically high position [18][21] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for U.S. stocks were revised upward, with the S&P 500's 2026 EPS forecast increasing from +12.7% to +12.9% [66] - In comparison, the earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks remained flat, with the Hang Seng Index's 2026 EPS forecast at +11.1% [66] - European stocks saw a downward revision in earnings expectations, with the Eurozone STOXX50's 2026 EPS forecast adjusted from -3.1% to -3.0% [66][67] Economic Expectations - Economic indicators showed a notable recovery in Central and Eastern Europe, while the U.S. economic surprise index was downgraded due to lower-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and uncertainties surrounding tariffs [8][66] - The European economic surprise index increased, likely due to the rejection of tariff decisions and significant growth in German economic output [8][66] Fund Flows - There was a marginal tightening in overseas liquidity expectations, with the market anticipating the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.2 times in 2026, a decrease from the previous week [50][51] - Global micro liquidity saw significant inflows into the U.S., Europe, South Korea, and Japan, while there was a net outflow from mainland China [58][61]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals generally rose, with the exception of zinc, which fell by 0.04%. Tin led the gains with a 7.62% increase, followed by nickel at 2.32%. Other metals had gains of less than 1% [1] - In the black metal sector, all commodities saw increases of over 1%, with iron ore up 1.42%, stainless steel up 1.24%, rebar up 1.72%, and hot-rolled coil up 1.19%. Both coking coal and coke rose by 2.32% [1] - On the external market, base metals also showed an upward trend, with tin leading at 5.27% and nickel up by 1%. Other metals had gains of less than 1% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 0.68% and silver by 3.42%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold fell by 0.04%, while silver rose by 4.57% [1] Additional Metals - Platinum rose by 7.03%, and palladium increased by 4.5% [2] Macro Environment - The Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee and other departments issued a notice to optimize real estate policies, effective from February 26, 2026, aimed at meeting housing demand and promoting market stability [5][6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 4.095 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% [6] Oil Market - As of 15:04, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased, with WTI up 0.55% and Brent up 0.54%. Traders are preparing for upcoming US-Iran talks [9] - The API reported a crude oil inventory of 11.427 million barrels for the week ending February 20, against an expectation of 1.25 million barrels [9]

目前，市场普遍预计美联储今年将实施约三次降息操作，每次降息幅度为25个基点。这种市场预期与美联 储官员表态之间的差异，反映出当前经济环境下，市场与政策制定者对经济走势、通胀前景的判断存在一 定分歧，后续需持续关注相关经济数据的变化，以观察双方预期是否会出现调整。 贸易领域，美国近期推出了新的关税举措。周二，美国正式开始临时征收10%的全球关税，而在此之前， 美国最高法院于上周驳回了特朗普此前提出的报复性关税提案。尽管临时关税已落地，但白宫正推动将这 一税率进一步提高至15%，相关举措的后续推进情况，将对美国国内企业及全球贸易往来产生影响。 特朗普在国情咨文演讲中，着重强调了其执政期间推行的各项政策及取得的经济成就，并宣称美国当前的 发展状态比以往任何时候都更强大。这一表态既是对其执政成果的总结，也反映出当前美国内部对经济发 展的一种认知倾向。 美联储官员的近期表态，进一步印证了市场对利率政策的部分预期。波士顿联储主席Susan Collins指出， 当前劳动力市场呈现改善态势，同时通胀风险仍未完全消退，在此背景下，维持现有利率水平可能是合适 的选择。 里士满联储主席Thomas Barkin则补充说明，当前的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on the expectations surrounding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the implications for investment strategies in precious metals [2][24][26]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in April 2026 has decreased from 29.9% to 16.9%, while the likelihood for June has dropped from 68.6% to 49.5%, and July's probability stands at 70.6% [2][24]. - The market's delayed expectations for rate cuts are attributed to stronger-than-expected employment data, despite skepticism regarding the reliability of such data [26][2]. - The article highlights the need for investors to consider their strategies during the period between the last rate cut in December and future cuts [2][26]. Group 2: CFTC Data Insights - As of February 17, the net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 3.2% to 299 tons, marking the highest level in three weeks, while net long positions in silver rose by 34% to 958 tons, also the highest in three weeks [5][6]. - The article notes that the net long positions in platinum have decreased significantly, indicating a divergence in market sentiment towards different precious metals [5][10]. - The overall trend shows a recovery in net long positions for most metals, except for copper, which has seen a decline [5][12]. Group 3: Price Movements and Historical Context - Despite a 24% decline in net long positions for gold year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 64.4%, indicating strong physical demand outpacing futures market dynamics [14][15]. - The article suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a consolidation phase for metals, lasting several months unless disrupted by unforeseen events [27][28]. - Historical comparisons indicate that the current gold-to-North American mining stock ratio is at 11.823X, reflecting a 6.2% decline this year, suggesting that mining stocks have underperformed relative to physical gold [18][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Considerations - The article posits that the global economic landscape is shifting towards a "Warring States" era, impacting the dynamics of commodity markets and suggesting a continued upward trend for commodities [28][29]. - The potential for inflationary pressures to resurface poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly if rate cuts are implemented [29]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and price movements in precious metals as indicators of future trends [27][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar index is experiencing a short-term upward trend, influenced by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, changes in US tariff policies, and global risk aversion sentiment [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have cooled, with the January meeting minutes reinforcing a "wait and see" signal, and the inflation target of 2% being a key factor for any potential rate cuts [1] - The recent Supreme Court ruling regarding tariffs may lead to a reduction in tariffs by 5 percentage points and a potential tax refund of $175 billion, although former President Trump has indicated plans to maintain existing tariffs, which creates policy uncertainty and boosts demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Technically, the dollar index has shown a rebound from 95.56 to 97.95 since mid-February, with short-term support at 97.80 and resistance around 98.00-98.05, although it remains in a long-term downtrend with targets around 80-85 [2] - The outlook for the dollar remains strong in the short term, influenced by Federal Reserve policies, tariff implementations, and inflation data, but long-term pressures from fiscal deficits, interest rate cut cycles, trade deficits, and de-dollarization persist [2] - Investors are advised to monitor inflation, official statements, and tariff developments closely, as these factors could lead to potential pullback risks [2]

1月28日以来，美元指数持续反弹，上周触及阶段性高点98.05，但中期趋势依旧偏空。如果美国强劲的 经济数据导致美联储暂停降息，美元指数在利好消息下持续大涨，即便有避险情绪的提振，黄金的涨势 可能也将受到显著抑制。 行情方面，中期内，黄金的高点在5597美元，低点在4402美元，最新市价（24日欧盘初）为5170美元， 处于高低点区间内部。行情正在寻找新的中期高点，5597美元有可能是较强的阻力位。由于上周五和本 周一黄金以双阳线收盘，存在洗盘结束迹象，新的牛市行情有望展开。如果今日K线再度收阳，突破 5597的概率将显著升高。 经济数据方面，美国1月份非农就业报告表现亮眼，新增非农就业人口达到13万，远高于前值4.8万人， 创出2025年1月份新高。美国劳动力市场摆脱疲软状态，将会降低美联储降息意愿。 上周五公布的美国12月核心PCE年率数据显示，最新值3%，高于前值和预期值，创出2024年5月份以来 新高，通胀有反扑迹象。通胀数据是中央银行进行货币政策决策的核心指标。美国通胀率升高，将大幅 延缓美联储下次降息的时间。 特朗普作为一个改革者，在执掌美国的四年时间里，必定会推出各种超出市场预期的政策。 202 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market has mixed fundamentals. Supply is disrupted with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with geopolitical disturbances and the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia causing the copper price to reach a new high [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the copper market. Positive factors include global policy easing and tight mining supply, while negative factors are US tariff fluctuations and weak global economic conditions that may suppress downstream consumption [3][4]. - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disruptions and a decline in manufacturing PMI suggest a bullish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 101840 with a basis of 330, indicating a premium over futures, which is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On February 24, copper inventory increased by 1350 to 243175 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 23564 tons to 272475 tons last week, which is neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, indicating a bullish outlook [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances and the mine event in Indonesia have led to a new high in copper price, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Global policy easing and tight mining supply [3]. - **Negative Factors**: US tariff fluctuations and weak global economic conditions suppressing downstream consumption [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [21]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].

黄金回调附近5120做多，止损20个点，目标5200附近。 文/江问樵专业国际市场点评，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大 宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，若您对 这种即将选择方向的行情节奏把握需要更清晰的预判，欢迎关注交流探讨，让我们共同捕捉下一轮行情 的启动点。 消息面共振利好黄金上行，支撑多单看向5200附近目标。美联储内部降息分歧虽存，但市场普遍预期6月 将启动降息，宽松预期长期支撑金价走强；同时美元长期贬值趋势明确，财政赤字高企、去美元化浪潮 推进，进一步提升黄金避险与保值需求。此外，全球顶级投行密集释放看多信号，瑞银、高盛等均看好 黄金中期上行，叠加当前金价回调已消化短期波动情绪，日内反弹动能充足，5200附近作为前期震荡高 位及日内回调前的关键压力位，成为短期合理反弹目标。 国际黄金技术面呈现明确回调企稳信号，为5120附近做多提供支撑。截至当日7时，伦敦金现报5119.33美 元/盎司，回调幅度达2.21%，最低触及5093.17美元/盎司，5120附近已接近日内回调低位，且处于前期震 荡区间下沿，形成有效技术支 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 假期金属价格走强，看好节后配置机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 铜铝节后易涨难跌，重视板块机会。商品端，铜铝节后易涨难跌，中长期经济底部与逆全球化 促进供需结构优化，弹性可期：1）短期，美国对降息及铜关税态度，依然是短期工业金属价格 走势的主导因素，在二者并未发生根本性转变之前，维持铜铝趋势看涨判断，节后国内金三银 四旺季、中美会谈、联储主席换届等均构成催化；2）中期，美联储降息引领全球趋势宽松促进 铜铝周期上行；3）长期，逆全球化加剧各国对资源争夺，铜铝中枢趋势上行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, and the long - term upward support logic remains unchanged [2] - Silver is expected to gradually shift to a volatile and slightly stronger trend after price stabilization, and the long - term bullish support is still strong [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Gold - During the Spring Festival holiday, the external precious metals rebounded after low - level oscillations, supported by factors such as the differentiation of US economic data, the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, and changes in US tariff policies. The intraday COMEX gold price fell by nearly 1% after reaching a high, ending the previous four - day consecutive rise, due to factors such as partial profit - taking by investors and a slight rebound in the US dollar index [1] - The short - term gold price is supported by the uncertainty of US tariffs, the repetition of US - Iran negotiations, and the Middle - East geopolitical situation. However, there are also suppressions, such as the differentiation of US economic data and the postponement of the Fed's first rate - cut expectation this year. Key events to focus on include the US - Iran Geneva negotiation on the 26th, the release of January PPI data on the 27th, next week's non - farm payroll data, and Sino - US interactions [2] Silver - The intraday COMEX silver showed a "V - shaped" volatile trend with a gain of over 1%, and SHFE silver also showed a volatile and slightly stronger operation. The macro - driving factors of silver are consistent with those of gold. The impact of tariff policy changes is generally positive, while the postponement of the Fed's rate cut and the possibility of a US visit to China suppress the price. The spot - end driving factors of silver are still positive, with the risk of spot tightness in March remaining. Key events to focus on include the fermentation of spot tightness in March [3] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on February 24, 2026 includes special indices such as the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index, with corresponding increases of 1.86%, 2.23%, 1.14%, and 0.67% respectively [45] - The precious metals index on February 24, 2026 had a daily increase of 6.03%, a 5 - day increase of 3.79%, a 1 - month increase of 0.11%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.64% [46]