财华社8月12日讯，中泰国际发布了每周策略报告称，港股市场风险偏好持续走强，推动大盘高位震 荡。7月中国出口韧性超预期，进口同比增速创一年多新高，下游物价温和修复，上游降价压力仍存， 基本面整体延续温和改善，叠加市场预期政策聚焦结构性发力，港股整体仍有上升支撑力。 中泰国际强调，当前港股盈利预期稳健，恒指2025/2026年预测盈利增速2.7%/8.5%，上游资源板块受益 反内卷政策引领改善，叠加中国债市企稳（10年期国债收益率＞1.7%）支撑盈利上修动能。然而，当 前港股估值短期已大幅修复，恒指预测PE回归2018-2019年中枢，风险溢价处历史低位与AH溢价创近六 年新低，叠加8月进入港股季节性的淡季，中报业绩期将集中验证基本面，市场有理由高位整固。 美元指数方面，中泰国际认为美元指数持续受三重压制：经济动能弱化（ISM服务业和制造业均超预期 走弱）、政策独立性风险（特朗普拟任命鸽派理事冲击美联储决策）、地缘避险溢价消退（美俄会晤推 升俄乌停火预期）。 该行指出，当前市场对9月降息概率定价已达87%。料短期美元指数保持震荡偏弱格局，仍待经济数 据、关税战终章进展、特朗普对美联储独立性影响几何等重点事件明朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with trading volume decreasing to HKD 200.9 billion, indicating a rise in cautious sentiment among investors as the mid-year reporting season approaches [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The valuation of the Hong Kong stock market has significantly recovered in the short term, with the Hang Seng Index's forecast PE returning to the mid-point of 2018-2019 [1] - The risk premium is at historical lows, and the AH premium has reached a nearly six-year low, suggesting a more stable market environment [1] - August marks the seasonal off-peak period for Hong Kong stocks, leading to a concentrated verification of fundamentals during the mid-year reporting period [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The upstream resource sector is expected to see continued profit elasticity due to supply contraction driven by anti-involution policies [1] - In the technology and consumer sectors, attention should be paid to self-controllable areas such as semiconductors and AI computing power, as well as beneficiaries of fertility subsidies, including maternal and infant care and local living services [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with trading volume decreasing to HKD 200.9 billion, indicating a rise in cautious sentiment among investors [1] - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks has significantly recovered in the short term, with the Hang Seng Index's forecast PE returning to the mid-point of 2018-2019, and the risk premium at historical lows, while the AH premium has reached a nearly six-year low [1] - August marks a seasonal downturn for Hong Kong stocks, and the upcoming concentrated earnings reports will validate the fundamentals, providing reasons for the market to consolidate at high levels [1] Group 2 - The upstream resource sector is expected to see continued profit elasticity due to supply contraction driven by anti-involution policies [1] - In the technology and consumer sectors, attention should be paid to self-controllable areas such as semiconductors and AI computing power, as well as beneficiaries of fertility subsidies, including maternal and infant care and local living services [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with the Hang Seng Index showing a slight increase of 48 points or 0.2%, closing at 24,906 points. The trading volume decreased to 2,009 billion HKD, indicating a rise in cautious sentiment among investors [1][2] - The performance of lithium mining stocks, cement, and paper industries was particularly strong, with Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK) rising by 20.9% and Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) increasing by 18.2% [1] Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector led the market gains, with Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) awaiting news on a potential restructuring. Other automotive stocks like Geely (175 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) also saw increases of 2.5% and 0.3%, respectively [3] - The pharmaceutical sector showed stable stock performance, with Innovent Biologics (1801 HK) reporting a strong revenue growth of over 5.2 billion RMB, maintaining a year-on-year increase of over 35% [3] New Energy and Utilities - The new energy sector exhibited mixed performance, with the photovoltaic sector receiving significant market support. Stocks like Xinyi Solar (968 HK) and Flat Glass Group (6865 HK) rose by 5.1% and 3.1%, respectively [4] - Natural gas stocks also saw substantial increases, with Tianlun Gas (1600 HK) rising by 5.5%, driven by expectations of favorable mid-term performance [4] Strategic Insights - The report emphasizes a shift from broad market gains (beta) to individual stock selection (alpha), suggesting a focus on sectors benefiting from structural reforms and policy support, such as semiconductors, AI computing, and the maternal and infant industry [5][8] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming mid-year earnings reports to validate the market's fundamental outlook, with expectations of increased volatility among sectors [2] Specific Company Focus - Harbin Electric (1133 HK) is identified as a key player in the water power equipment sector, expected to benefit from the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a projected net profit increase of 95% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [14] - Hong Kong and China Gas (1083 HK) anticipates moderate growth in natural gas sales, with a projected dividend yield of 4.8% for FY25 [14]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a healthy rotation among sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching a critical technical level, just 20 points shy of the previous high of 3674 points from October 8, 2022 [2][10] - Positive external factors include the increasing probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which is beneficial for global capital markets [2][10] - Domestic policies are focused on maintaining strict controls over new listings, which is expected to stabilize the market [2][10] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials sector saw significant gains, driven by the demand for lightweight materials in humanoid robots, indicating a potential for rapid market growth [6] - The energy metals sector, particularly lithium mining, experienced a surge due to supply tightening expectations, with lithium carbonate futures prices hitting a three-month high of over 80,000 yuan per ton [7] - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in demand post-pandemic, with a notable performance in 2023 and expectations for continued growth into 2025 driven by AI advancements [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a "slow bull" market trend for the medium to long term, with opportunities for stock selection and timing becoming increasingly important [3][11] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with high certainty in performance, reasonable valuations, and those benefiting from policy support, such as semiconductors, AI, and healthcare [3][11] - Short-term pullbacks may present opportunities for increased allocation, particularly in undervalued stocks [3][11]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 08 月 11 日 国内设备/算力/代工等板块业绩增长向好，关注存储/模拟等复苏态势 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 507 | 9.9 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 10138.5 | 10.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 8673.4 | 10.0 | 行业指数 半导体行业深度跟踪 TMT 及中小盘/电子 海外 CSP 云厂商纷纷上修资本支出，台积电上修 2025 年收入增速指引，整体 算力景气度有望延续，国内海光等亦持续释放业绩；海外半导体设备公司 25Q2 表现符合预期，国内设备公司签单和业绩表现向好；海外存储原厂受益于 HBM 等需求，国内存储模组和利基存储芯片公司将继续受益于涨价和库存改善等， 整体收入和盈利能力预计均保持边际复苏态势；海外 TI 表示大部分终端市场复 苏，国内模拟公司 25Q2 营收多数同环比改善。建议关注自主可控加速叠加业 绩向好的设备/算力/代工/等板块、景气周期边际复苏的存储/模拟等板块，同时 建议关注各科创指数和半导体指数核心成分股。 2、库存端：手机链 DOI 环比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai International suggests leveraging the current market pullback to focus on dual main lines of policy and industry resonance, particularly in sectors like biomedicine, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and AI computing power, as well as benefiting from policies in upstream cyclical industries like steel, cement, and coal [1][6] Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is projected at 5.3%, with a notable recovery in decision-making confidence, reducing the necessity for strong short-term stimulus [3] - Structural concerns are highlighted, including a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.9% and a negative deflation index for nine consecutive quarters, indicating ongoing price pressures [3] - Economic recovery is uneven, with strong export investment but pressure on consumption and real estate [3] Market Conditions - The Hang Seng Index's forecasted PE has returned to levels seen in 2018-2019, with risk premiums at historical lows and AH premium indices at a six-year low, indicating limited room for valuation expansion [1][5] - The market is expected to face short-term pressure due to weak economic data, limited strong stimulus measures, and potential liquidity contraction from U.S. Treasury issuance [1][5] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors that can benefit from policy changes and technological breakthroughs, including biomedicine, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and AI computing power [1][6] - It also emphasizes the importance of structural reforms and targeted policies to support new infrastructure and improve supply-side conditions [3][5] International Trade and Monetary Policy - The U.S. economic outlook shows signs of weakness, with a significant drop in consumer and private investment growth, raising concerns about a potential recession [4] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut in September, which could influence Hong Kong's risk premium and market conditions [4][5] Capital Flows - As of August 1, 2023, the Hong Kong Stock Connect has seen a net inflow of HKD 879 billion, surpassing last year's total, although there is a notable divergence in international capital flows [5] - Passive funds have seen inflows, while active funds have experienced outflows, indicating a need for price stabilization and resolution of real estate risks for systemic foreign capital return [5]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing mixed price movements, with 18 products increasing in price, 39 decreasing, and 43 remaining stable during the week of August 4-10. The international oil prices have also declined, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping by 5.12% and 4.42% respectively, amid concerns over US-India trade relations [1][4]. Industry Dynamics - During the week of August 4-10, 100 tracked chemical products showed that 38% had month-on-month price increases, while 56% experienced declines, and 7% remained unchanged. The top gainers included aniline, pure MDI, and urea, while the largest declines were seen in liquid ammonia and WTI crude oil [3]. - International oil prices fell, with WTI closing at $63.88 per barrel and Brent at $66.59 per barrel. The US oil production averaged 13.284 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels from the previous week, and total US oil demand was 20.122 million barrels per day, a decrease of 126,500 barrels [4]. - The titanium dioxide market saw a price drop, with an average price of 13,302 yuan per ton, down 1.10% from the previous week. The supply side remains tight, with operating rates around 66.71% for sulfate titanium dioxide [6]. - Refrigerant prices increased, with R32 averaging 56,500 yuan per ton, up 2.73% week-on-week. The demand for R134a remains stable, while R125 prices are expected to stabilize due to consistent single-component demand [7]. Investment Recommendations - As of August 10, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio is 24.68, and the oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 11.19. The report suggests focusing on mid-year earnings, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and companies in electronic materials and energy sectors with stable dividend policies [8][9]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in oil and gas exploration, electronic materials, and new energy materials, emphasizing the importance of domestic control in semiconductor materials and the growth of the new energy materials market [9]. - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, CNOOC, Sinopec, and various technology and chemical companies, indicating a positive outlook for sectors with strong demand recovery and high valuation potential [9].

Core Insights - The Chinese manufacturing industry is rapidly embracing digital transformation, with Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) systems becoming increasingly central to this process as companies seek to choose the most suitable PLM solutions to stand out in a competitive landscape [2][4]. Market Landscape - The 2025 Chinese PLM market is characterized by a complex competitive environment formed by international leaders and local challengers. Major international players like Siemens, Dassault Systèmes, and PTC dominate the market due to their strong technical capabilities and established product lines [3][4]. - Local companies, such as CAXA, are gaining traction by offering tailored services that resonate with local user habits and competitive pricing, leading to a more diversified market landscape [4][8]. Market Share Predictions - The projected market share for 2025 includes: - Siemens ~22% - Dassault Systèmes ~19% - PTC ~15% - CAXA ~12% - SAP ~10% - Others ~22% [7]. Trends in Technology - The PLM market is evolving beyond traditional document management to become an arena for innovative technology integration, with cloud-based PLM and SaaS models significantly lowering the barriers for companies to adopt these systems [9][10]. - AI is being increasingly integrated into PLM systems, enhancing their ability to understand and analyze data, thus unlocking their potential for driving innovation [11][17]. Industry-Specific Applications - The value of PLM systems is being realized through tailored industry applications, with leading PLM vendors investing in industry-specific solutions that address unique business challenges [12][14]. - Key industry requirements include: - Automotive: Complex BOM management, supplier collaboration, compliance, and quality management - Aerospace: Compliance, traceability, and lightweight material applications - High-tech electronics: Rapid iteration and hardware-software collaboration [14]. Future Outlook - The Chinese PLM market is expected to be vibrant and transformative by 2025, with three core trends: a reshaped competitive landscape featuring both international giants and local brands, technological innovation driving accessibility and intelligence, and deepened industry solutions enhancing customer value [15].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of fluctuating international oil prices and the recent price changes in titanium dioxide and refrigerants, suggesting a focus on mid-year earnings reports and the influence of supply-side factors in related sub-industries [2][3][11] - It emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies and the stability of dividend policies in energy enterprises [11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of August 4-10, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 18 saw price increases, 39 experienced declines, and 43 remained stable. 38% of products had month-on-month price increases, while 56% saw decreases [10][31] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil closing at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.12% for the week, and Brent crude at $66.59 per barrel, down 4.42% [10][32] - Titanium dioxide prices decreased to an average of 13,302 RMB/ton, down 1.10% from the previous week, with a year-to-date decline of 7.24% [10][33] - Refrigerant prices increased, with R32 averaging 56,500 RMB/ton, up 2.73% week-on-week and 31.40% year-to-date [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on mid-year earnings, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [11] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high demand in the oil and gas extraction sector, the rapid development of downstream industries, and the potential for recovery in demand supported by policy [11] - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and several technology and chemical companies [11] Key Stocks for August - The report identifies Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology as key stocks for August, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential [12][18]