证券日报网讯 12月16日，赛微电子在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司已采购和在途、在装设备 能够满足当前阶段的产能需要，同时公司加大关键原材料及生产工艺设备的采购及储备力度，积极加强 与本土自主可控厂商的合作，积极防范设备采购风险。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the valuation repair in the A-share market in 2025, the main driving force in 2026 is expected to shift more towards the substantial improvement of the profit fundamentals. The core logic of this profit recovery lies in the gradual re - balancing of the supply - demand pattern. With the continuous deepening of the "anti - involution" policy and the natural clearing of the production capacity cycle, enterprise profit margins have stabilized first, and asset turnover is also expected to gradually pick up. The moderate recovery of PPI will drive the profit margin repair of the mid - stream manufacturing industry, and the gradual entry of AI technology into the commercial application stage will also promote the accelerated growth of revenues in related industries [3][54]. - The capital side is expected to remain generally abundant, supported by three aspects: the continuous transfer of domestic residents' asset allocation to equity products, the potential return of foreign capital to the A - share market as the external environment stabilizes, and the steady entry of long - term funds such as pensions and insurance funds, which will provide stable liquidity support for the market [3][54]. - Overall, the reasonable level of the valuation side and the positive factors on the capital side will provide strong support for the performance of the A - share market in 2026 [3][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Index Review - Since the beginning of the year, all major domestic stock indices have shown an upward trend, with the ChiNext Index having the largest increase and the Composite Index having the smallest increase. In terms of structure, small and medium - cap indices performed better. As of December 15, the ChiNext Index rose 49.16%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 36.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 27.31%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 26.18%. The small and medium - cap 100 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index rose 25.66%, 25.22%, and 23.72% respectively. In addition, the CSI 300 Index rose 16.42%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 16.04%, the SSE 50 Index rose 11.54%, and the Composite Index rose 11.29% [10]. - In 2025, the A - share market showed an "N" - shaped upward trend, mainly centered around the triple game of external environment disturbances, internal policy adjustments, and technological industry breakthroughs. It was affected by both external shocks such as tariff policies and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut policy and internal factors such as policy support, valuation repair, and profit verification, completing multiple rounds of switches from risk aversion to confidence repair, then to trend - up and structural digestion [12]. 3.1.2 Sector Review - In the first half of 2025, most sectors showed an upward trend. As of December 15, among the primary industries, the materials and information technology sectors led the gains, with annual increases of 47.22% and 44.03% respectively. The industrial sector rose 27.32%, the communication services sector rose 20.30%, the healthcare sector rose 16.22%, and the optional consumer sector rose 14.48%. The annual increases of the finance, energy, utilities, and real estate sectors were all less than about 10%. The only sector that declined was the daily consumer sector, which fell 1.68% [17]. 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Review - The overall trend of stock index futures in 2025 was consistent with the index market, showing an "N" - shaped trend. As of December 15, the SSE 50 futures, CSI 300 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 Index rose 12.60%, 20.21%, 38.61%, and 39.66% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. In terms of trading volume, the average annual daily trading volumes of the SSE 50 continuous contract, CSI 300 continuous contract, CSI 500 continuous contract, and CSI 1000 continuous contract were 35,000 lots, 70,000 lots, 63,000 lots, and 147,000 lots respectively. In terms of open interest, the average annual daily open interests of the SSE 50 continuous contract, CSI 300 continuous contract, CSI 500 continuous contract, and CSI 1000 continuous contract were 56,000 lots, 143,000 lots, 105,000 lots, and 175,000 lots respectively [19]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Domestic Economic Progress - **GDP Data**: In 2025, China's economic growth rate showed a pattern of high at the beginning and stable later. The GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. The cumulative GDP growth in the first three quarters was 5.2% year - on - year, higher than the full - year growth rate of the previous year [22][27]. - **PMI Data**: Since the beginning of the year, both the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI have fluctuated around the boom - bust line (50). In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly increasing by 0.2 percentage points but remaining below the boom - bust line. The service industry index in November was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous value [30]. - **Inflation Data**: Since the beginning of the year, the overall price level has shown a pattern of low - level CPI fluctuations and continuous negative PPI growth. However, there are positive structural changes. The core CPI has continued to rise since the second quarter, and the decline of PPI has significantly narrowed since August, showing signs of stabilization [31]. - **Consumption Data**: From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year - on - year, faster than the same period and the full - year of the previous year. In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate continuing to decline. Service consumption grew rapidly, and the consumption of cultural and sports services maintained double - digit growth [38][39]. - **Fixed Investment Data**: From January to November, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, while project investment excluding real - estate development investment increased by 0.8%. Investment in emerging fields showed good momentum, and investment in some traditional industries also expanded. Policy effects continued to appear, and equipment and tool purchase investment increased by 12.2% year - on - year [41]. - **Outlook for the 2026 Economy**: In 2026, China's economy is expected to achieve "repair - type" growth and structural re - balancing under policy support, showing a "stable at the beginning and rising later" trend. The GDP growth target is expected to be set at around 5%, inflation is expected to enter a moderate recovery channel, and policies will focus on boosting consumption [44]. 3.2.2 Macroeconomic Policies Supporting the A - share Market - The "anti - involution" policy will continue to deepen, aiming to optimize the industrial structure and enhance global competitiveness. Active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies are expected to continue. The fiscal deficit ratio is expected to remain at about 4%, the scale of new special bonds may reach 4.4 trillion yuan, and the scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds may increase to 1.6 trillion yuan. The M2 growth rate is expected to be between 7.7% and 8.1%, with possible reserve - requirement ratio cuts of 50 basis points and interest - rate cuts of 10 - 20 basis points [46][48]. 3.2.3 Tariff Uncertainty Disturbing the A - share Market - In April 2025, the US announced a series of tariff policies, which led to significant fluctuations in the A - share market in the short term. In the long term, it accelerated the transformation of A - share listed companies in two aspects: diversifying export markets and strengthening the "self - controllable" logic [49][50]. 3.2.4 Overseas Liquidity Loosening Supporting the A - share Market - The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points. This has two main impacts on the A - share market: expanding domestic policy space and boosting market risk appetite. However, the medium - and long - term trend of the market still depends on the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals and policy effects [51][52]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, stock index futures were affected by both external shocks such as tariff policies and Fed interest - rate cut policy changes and internal factors such as policy support, valuation repair, and profit verification, completing multiple rounds of switches [53]. - In 2026, the A - share market is expected to be driven more by the improvement of profit fundamentals, and the capital side is expected to remain abundant, providing strong support for the market [54].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Haitao Securities emphasizes the importance of identifying stocks with potential short-term or long-term performance discrepancies or surprises in AI advancements as a core task for 2026 [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The main investment strategy is to focus on value investing in the Hang Seng Technology Index, leveraging volatility from the Hong Kong stock market and short-selling mechanisms [1] - The key to successful operations lies in selecting fundamentally strong companies with sustainable development capabilities [1] Group 2: Recommended Stocks for 2026 - Stocks currently at the bottom or adjusting, with a high likelihood of fundamental reversal in 2026: Meituan, Xiaomi Group (planning next vehicle), BYD Electronics [2] - Stocks expected to benefit from EPS gains and potential valuation uplift: Tencent Holdings, Trip.com Group, JD Health, Lenovo Group [2] - Stocks with controllable elasticity: Alibaba, Baidu Group, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor [2] - AI elastic stocks: Kuaishou, Bilibili, Kingdee International, Horizon Robotics, Xpeng Motors, Yueda Group, NetEase, Sunny Optical Technology, UBTECH [2] - Potential small-cap companies: Inspur Digital Enterprise, Xindong Company, Huiliang Technology [2] Group 3: Individual Stock Insights - Kuaishou, Bilibili, Horizon Robotics, Xpeng Motors, Sunny Optical Technology, UBTECH are highlighted as key stocks with positive outlooks [2] - Inspur Digital Enterprise and Huiliang Technology are noted as quality small-cap stocks with promising prospects [2] - Tencent Holdings is identified as a top pick due to its strong research framework [2] - Alibaba is considered a leading asset in AI technology [2] - Lenovo Group is expected to achieve profitability in its server business next year due to accelerated AIPC penetration [2] - Trip.com Group is positioned well for growth driven by domestic stability and overseas acceleration [2] - JD Health is recognized as a leading player in internet healthcare with a clear growth path [2] - Meituan is noted for its resilience and potential turning point in competitive landscape [2] - Kingdee International's growth is constrained by macroeconomic factors, but AI and overseas expansion provide additional elasticity [2] - Xiaomi Group is expected to see improvements as negative factors gradually clear [2] - SMIC is experiencing an increase in advanced manufacturing proportion and continuous technological breakthroughs [2] - Hua Hong Semiconductor is benefiting from growth driven by computing and consumer electronics [2] - Yueda Group focuses on IP as a core asset, with expectations for further expansion and monetization [2] - NetEase is anticipated to enter a new product cycle with upcoming releases [2] - BYD Electronics is expected to see growth from Apple's foldable phone production and has significant potential in the new energy vehicle and data center sectors [2] - Xindong Company is driven by gaming and Taptap, with expectations for the launch of an overseas version [2]

Core Insights - Canon's decision to close its printer factory in Zhongshan, China by the end of 2025 marks a significant shift in the global laser printer market, dominated for decades by Japanese and American brands like Canon and HP [2] - The market landscape is changing, with domestic brands increasing their market share from approximately 10% in 2010 to over 40% today, while foreign brands have seen their share drop below 60% [2][10] - Canon's market share has decreased from 7.7% in 2018 to 3.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, while domestic brand BenQ has captured significant market shares of 23.5%, 25.8%, and 21.3% in the same period [2] Domestic Brand Growth - BenQ's entry into the printer market was driven by long-term commercial prospects and national strategic needs, particularly concerning supply chain and information security risks [3] - The company initially focused on consumables but soon recognized the limitations and shifted towards printer manufacturing, launching its first A4 monochrome laser printer in 2010 [4] - Despite facing aggressive pricing strategies from competitors, BenQ managed to grow its output from 53,000 units in May 2011 to over one million units by 2019, achieving an average annual growth rate of about 50% [4] Technological Advancements - BenQ has made significant strides in developing core components such as the laser scanning unit (LSU) and main control SoC chips, achieving independent research and development of these critical modules by 2018 [6][7] - The company has accumulated over 6,000 patents, establishing a technological moat that supports its competitive position in the market [7] - Lenovo has also transitioned from imitation to independent innovation, increasing its self-developed printer revenue share from less than 10% to 50% [7] Market Dynamics - The printer industry's business model relies on a "razor-and-blades" strategy, where original consumables generate ongoing revenue, with hardware sales often only breaking even [8] - Despite a decline in overall printer sales from 10 million units in 2000 to about 7 million units recently, domestic brands have continued to expand their market presence [9] - The shift in the global industrial landscape is evident as foreign brands relocate some production capacity, allowing domestic brands to take the lead in the supply chain [10] Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands are gaining market share due to lower prices (20%-30% cheaper than foreign brands) and features tailored to local needs, such as remote printing and Bluetooth/NFC connectivity [12] - The penetration rate of home printers in China is only about 10%, indicating significant growth potential as demand for home and small business printing continues to rise [14] - The competitive environment is intensifying, with profit margins shrinking and companies investing heavily in research and development to innovate and meet market demands [14] Future Outlook - Domestic brands are expected to focus on high-end products, AI ecosystems, and international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia [13] - The industry is entering a phase of stock or even declining competition, with foreign giants like HP and Canon facing challenges [15] - The rise of Chinese printer brands is attributed to continuous innovation in core technologies, establishing independent intellectual property, and enhancing supply chain security [15]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the Hong Kong stock market saw significant net buying from northbound capital, totaling HKD 36.54 billion, with Xiaomi Group, Ping An of China, and Meituan being the most bought stocks, while Tencent, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and China Mobile were the most sold [1][4]. Group 2 - Xiaomi Group (01810) received a net inflow of HKD 13.81 billion, driven by the completion of its first major home appliance factory in Wuhan, marking a key milestone in its smart home strategy [4]. - Ping An of China (02318) attracted a net inflow of HKD 11.89 billion, supported by positive research reports from major financial institutions and a recent regulatory easing that allows insurance companies to invest more long-term funds [4]. - Alibaba Group (09988) saw a net inflow of HKD 3.04 billion, with news of Meta using Alibaba's technology to optimize its AI models and the launch of a new cloud computing service [4]. - Kuaishou Technology (01024) gained a net inflow of HKD 790.3 million, with analysts predicting strong revenue growth due to its focus on user growth over immediate profitability [5]. - Semiconductor companies, including SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), faced net outflows of HKD 4.34 billion and HKD 5.55 billion respectively, influenced by regulatory changes regarding chip sales to China [5].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound capital, with a total net buy of HKD 36.54 billion on December 15, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in certain stocks while others faced net selling pressure [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The top net bought stocks included Xiaomi Group-W (01810), China Ping An (02318), and Meituan-W (03690) [1]. - The stocks with the highest net selling included Tencent (00700), Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), and China Mobile (00941) [1]. - Xiaomi Group-W received a net buy of HKD 13.81 billion, marking a significant milestone with the opening of its first major home appliance factory in Wuhan [4]. - China Ping An and China Life received net buys of HKD 11.89 billion and HKD 3.5 billion, respectively, supported by favorable reports from major financial institutions [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The banking sector is experiencing a mid-term dividend wave, with major banks expected to distribute over HKD 200 billion in cash dividends [4]. - Alibaba-W (09988) saw a net buy of HKD 3.04 billion, bolstered by news of Meta utilizing Alibaba's technology for AI model optimization [5]. - Kuaishou-W (01024) received a net buy of HKD 790.3 million, with analysts projecting strong revenue contributions from its AI initiatives [5]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - Semiconductor stocks like SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) faced net selling of HKD 4.34 billion and HKD 5.55 billion, respectively, amid regulatory changes allowing NVIDIA to sell chips to approved Chinese clients [5]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from regulatory adjustments that lower risk factors for insurance companies, allowing for increased long-term investment [4].

Core Insights - The rise of Chinese printer brands is not merely a result of low pricing or market exchange for technology, but rather a complex evolution involving core technology innovation and the establishment of independent intellectual property rights [16] Market Dynamics - Canon's decision to close its printer factory in Zhongshan, China by the end of 2025 symbolizes a significant shift in the global laser printer market, which has been historically dominated by Japanese and American brands like Canon and HP [2] - According to IDC, the market share of domestic brands in China's laser printer market has increased from approximately 10% in 2010 to over 40% today, while foreign brands' share has decreased to below 60% [2] - Canon's market share has declined from 7.7% in 2018 to 3.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, while domestic brand BenQ's market share has fluctuated between 21.3% and 25.8% during the same period [2] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the printer market has intensified, with domestic brands like BenQ and Lenovo gaining ground by focusing on supply chain security and addressing information security risks associated with networked printers [4][9] - BenQ has developed over 6,000 patents, creating a technological moat that supports its competitive position [8] Innovation and Development - BenQ's entry into the printer market in 2007 was driven by the long-term commercial prospects of printers and national strategic needs, leading to significant investments in R&D and supply chain development [4][5] - The company achieved a breakthrough in core components like the laser scanning unit (LSU) and SoC chips, enabling it to produce competitive products domestically [7] Pricing and Cost Structure - The pricing strategy of domestic brands is significantly lower than that of foreign brands, with original consumables from US brands priced around 300 RMB, while similar products from Lenovo are priced at approximately 100 RMB [10] - The cost of printing has decreased from 0.2-0.3 RMB per A4 page to 0.07-0.08 RMB due to the integration of supply chain and technological innovations [10] Future Outlook - The domestic printer market is expected to continue growing, with a current household penetration rate of only 10%, compared to 30%-40% in Western countries [15] - Domestic brands are focusing on high-end markets, AI ecosystems, and international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, to navigate patent barriers and enhance their market presence [13][16]

Core Insights - The chemical industry report indicates a mixed performance in chemical product prices, with 42 products increasing in price, 37 decreasing, and 21 remaining stable during the week of December 8-14 [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials amid price increases [1][6] Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 8-14, 47% of tracked chemical products saw a month-on-month price increase, while 44% experienced a decrease, and 9% remained unchanged [2] - The top price increases were noted in nitric acid, sulfuric acid, raw salt, bisphenol A, and TDI, while the largest declines were in PVA, LLDPE, trichloroethylene, and NYMEX natural gas [2] Oil Market Overview - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $57.44 per barrel (down 2.45%) and Brent crude at $61.12 per barrel (down 2.19%) [3] - The U.S. oil production averaged 13.853 million barrels per day, an increase of 38,000 barrels from the previous week and 222,000 barrels from the same period last year [3] - U.S. oil demand rose to an average of 21.082 million barrels per day, with gasoline demand increasing to 8.456 million barrels per day [3] TDI Market Analysis - TDI prices increased to an average of 14,713 yuan/ton, up 2.49% week-on-week and 5.51% month-on-month [4] - TDI production decreased, with an overall operating rate of approximately 58.55%, and various factories experiencing operational issues [4] - Average costs for TDI were 11,819 yuan/ton, down 0.92% week-on-week, while average gross profit rose by 31.79% week-on-week [4] Methionine Market Analysis - Methionine prices decreased to an average of 17,900 yuan/ton, down 2.45% week-on-week and 9.14% month-on-month [5] - The production remained stable at 18,350 tons, with an operating rate of 89.42% [5] - The cost of methionine was 13,853.73 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 23.67% [5] Valuation Metrics - As of December 12, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector was 24.14, and the price-to-book ratio was 2.19 [6] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector had a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 12.85 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.24 [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued leading companies, sectors benefiting from policy support, and emerging fields such as semiconductor materials and new energy materials [6] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [6][7]

全球共振、内需回归、A 股上行 - A 股 2026 年投资策略 20251214 摘要 预计 2026 年中国 PPI 将显著上行，受益于国内投资回升、"十五"规 划重大项目落地、房地产政策推动以及美国中期选举带来的财政货币政 策共振，这将显著改善企业盈利。 A 股市场预计将从牛市第二阶段向第三阶段过渡，即从流动性驱动转向 盈利驱动，顺周期板块和渗透率提升的科技板块将表现更佳。2026 年 是"十四五"规划关键年，重大项目落地和地方政府投资将推动内需扩 张。 与过去不同，信用增速对总需求的影响减弱，财政支出成为关键驱动因 素。2026 年财政政策预计保持扩张，重点转向推动实物工作量和投资 端回升，重大项目将集中落地。 预计 2026 年 GDP 增速约为 5%，主要驱动力将从出口转向内需，投资 和消费需发力。出口增速可能下滑，因此需要投资达到 3%-5%的增长， 消费端超过 5%。 Q&A 2026 年 A 股市场的整体表现如何预判？ 2026 年将是中国"十五"规划的第一年，也是党的二十一大召开前的完整年 份，同时美国也将迎来中期选举。这些因素共同作用下，预计全球财政政策和 货币政策将形成共振，推动 PP ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][45] Core Views - The report highlights the decline in international oil prices and methionine prices, while TDI prices have increased. It suggests focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials companies amid price increases [2][10]. Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 8-14, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 42 saw price increases, 37 saw declines, and 21 remained stable. The average price of TDI rose by 2.49% week-on-week, while methionine prices fell by 2.45% [29][31][32]. - The average cost of TDI was 11,819 CNY/ton, down 0.92% from the previous week, with an average gross profit of 2,766.71 CNY/ton, up 31.79% week-on-week [31]. - The report notes that the SW basic chemical industry P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 24.14, at the 71.18% historical percentile, while the oil and petrochemical industry P/E ratio is 12.85, at the 35.15% historical percentile [10][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued industry leaders and suggests a long-term investment strategy that includes sectors like semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials, which are expected to have significant growth potential [10][29]. - Specific stock recommendations include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, Juhua Co., New Chemical, China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical, and others [10][29].