Group 1 - Wall Street investment banks are adjusting their outlook on the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs lowering the probability of a recession from 35% to 30% over the next twelve months [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. from 1% to 1.25% for this year, indicating cautious optimism about the economy's resilience [1] - A key factor in this shift is the significant reduction in tariff policy uncertainty, supported by recent progress in U.S.-China negotiations [4] Group 2 - The VIX index, which measures market fear, has decreased by 18% from its April peak, and dollar financing costs have fallen to a three-month low, indicating a stabilization in the financial environment [4] - Recent inflation data shows that the U.S. CPI growth in May was below expectations, suggesting that the impact of previous tariffs on consumer prices has been weaker than anticipated [4] - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims rising to 1.95 million, but non-farm payrolls continue to show positive growth [7] Group 3 - Corporate capital expenditures are recovering, with the U.S. manufacturing PMI new orders index expanding for three consecutive months [7] - Retail sales in the U.S. are maintaining a month-on-month growth rate of 0.4%, reflecting consumer resilience [7] - The U.S. housing market is showing unexpected recovery, with new housing starts increasing by 5.7% month-on-month, the highest growth rate of the year [7] Group 4 - Despite short-term pressures easing, inflation risks remain, with concerns that new tariff policies could lead to a resurgence in CPI in the coming months [10] - The increase in import costs due to tariffs on machinery and chemical products is expected to raise intermediate goods prices, while the reshoring of manufacturing may lead to higher domestic production costs [10] - The super core inflation, which excludes housing, remains high at 4.8%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target, influencing Goldman Sachs' decision to maintain a 30% recession probability [10] Group 5 - Market indicators suggest a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the end of a three-week inverted yield curve [10] - However, business leaders remain cautious, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning that the economy appears prosperous due to massive fiscal stimulus, while policy uncertainty remains a significant variable [10] - The nearing end of the corporate inventory rebuilding cycle and rising credit card default rates indicate that the economic endurance test is far from over [10]

但真正的看点在于会后的沟通。政策声明措辞微调、鲍威尔表态、以及最受瞩目的利率点阵图，都将被 逐字逐句解读。 市场将以此判断美联储对通胀、就业和经济前景的最新评估，以及对未来降息时机和幅度的预期。 美联储的决议是市场关注的重中之重。 | 市场普遍预期本次会议将维持利率不变，这几乎板上钉钉。 当前，美国经济数据信号矛盾：通胀虽有粘性但核心指标持平，劳动力市场似在软化。这种"滞 胀"与"衰退"担忧并存，加上潜在的贸易政策不确定性，使美联储路径异常复杂。 点阵图是否会下调年内降息次数预期？ 这将直接影响市场对下半年宽松程度的定价。 本周，全球金融市场正迎来一场由货币政策决议与地缘政治风险交织而成的复杂考验。 | 即将登场 的"超级央行周"，以美联储和日本央行为首，将为市场提供关于未来利率路径的关键线索。 然而，中东地区不断升级的紧张局势，犹如一团难以预测的乌云，为本已充满不确定性的经济前景再添 变数。 这可能导致市场推迟下一次加息预期，无疑对日元构成持续贬值压力。日元走势不仅影响日本经济，也 对全球套利交易和资产配置至关重要。 然而，本周最大变数或非来自央行！ 中东才是焦点。以色列与伊朗冲突升级，迅速点燃避险情绪—— ...

洪灏的宏观策略 洪灏: 2025下半年展望 - 周期的 博弈 (上) 06-15 08:56 2025年下半年中国的在岸市场和经济展望。 每年的这个时候,都是我们回顾上半年的预测结果,并 展望下半年的经济和市场的时刻。回顾，并非是为了炫 耀业绩而居功自傲,而是为了总结经验,检验逻辑,对 比结果，矫正偏差，并为展望下半年奠下更好的基础。 今年六月的这个时候，也是恰逢十年前2015年6月15日 市场5,000点泡沫顶峰的时候。十年前泡沫破灭前的几 天， 我打开了一瓶 澳洲的小众超级膜拜酒"Lake's Folly"，写了那篇获得市场公认的、预测了那年股市泡 沫顶峰的经典报告《洪源：伟大的中国泡沫》（报告网 上还有，请自行搜索）。酒庄的名字也很应景，中文可 以翻译成"荒谬之湖" ... 当时，我认为市场的换手率飙升远过于中国台湾90年 代时期泡沫的顶峰和日本、美国股市泡沫顶峰时期的换 手率。这种现象显示当时的市场已经进入了极度投机的 阶段，市场泡沫将无以为继，随时都可能破灭，而随后 的六个月将是泡沫破灭的关键时间过程。市场当时在 2015年6月15日见顶之后，一直到了次年一二月份，也 就是5000点的泡沫顶峰大约六 ...

董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 中长期投资者要深刻解读世界秩序重塑方向和权衡各类资产性价比。开年来，两大关键变量（Deepseek+对等 关税）都进一步强化新投资范式底层逻辑（逆全球化加剧、AI产业趋势、债务周期）。新投资范式2.0，全球风险溢价 中枢抬升，可能会放大非对称定价风险带来的波动。当前全球风险资产基本已修复至4.2 "对等关税"前的水平，非对称 定价风险在于大类资产对美国衰退的风险定价不足。我们认为，美国"衰退交易"是非常好的非对称交易——即赢多输少 的交易策略。 本篇，主要探讨全天候策略模型如何修正对美国衰退低估的风险？ ● 历次衰退交易启动往往领先于美国实质性陷入NBER衰退的时间。 美国衰退交易大类资产典型特征：美股&工业金属 下跌、10Y美债利率下行、美国信用利差走阔、美股防御股跑赢周期股。复盘经验：1990.9、2001.3、2007.12、2020.3 （除2020.3由于新冠疫情突发事件冲击），历次美国衰退交易的启动通常显著领先美国国家经济研究局（NBER）宣布 的美国经济实质性陷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply interpret the reshaping of the global order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets, particularly in light of the increasing risks associated with U.S. recession and the implications of new investment paradigms [3][10]. Group 1: Introduction - The article discusses two key variables at the beginning of the year: Deepseek and equivalent tariffs, which reinforce the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm characterized by increasing de-globalization, trends in AI industries, and debt cycles [3][10]. - It suggests that the global risk premium has risen, potentially amplifying asymmetric pricing risks, particularly regarding the underpricing of recession risks in major asset classes [3][10]. Group 2: U.S. Recession Trading - Historical data indicates that U.S. recession trading often begins 1-6 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a recession [4][47]. - Typical characteristics during U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, falling 10-year Treasury yields, widening credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [4][47]. Group 3: Volatility During Recession Trading - The article notes that during past U.S. recession trading phases, asset volatility has generally increased, with risk assets experiencing greater volatility than safe-haven assets [5][65]. - Specific examples include the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Index showing higher volatility compared to gold and U.S. Treasuries during recession periods [5][65]. Group 4: All-Weather Strategy Model - The article proposes an all-weather strategy model to adjust for the underestimation of U.S. recession risks, focusing on the asymmetric pricing risks present in current asset allocations [6][73]. - It ranks various assets based on their volatility amplification factors during past recession trading periods, with Nasdaq, Indian SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Technology leading the list [6][73]. - The model suggests adjusting asset weights based on these factors, increasing allocations to underweighted assets like Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends while reducing exposure to overvalued assets like Nasdaq and Indian SENSEX30 [6][73].

Core Viewpoint - Long-term investors need to deeply interpret the direction of the reshaping world order and weigh the cost-effectiveness of various assets, as two key variables (Deepseek and reciprocal tariffs) have further strengthened the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm [1] Group 1: U.S. Recession Trading - The initiation of recession trading often leads the actual declaration of recession by the NBER by an average of 1-6 months [1] - Typical characteristics of U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, a decrease in 10Y U.S. Treasury yields, widening U.S. credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [1] Group 2: Asset Volatility During Recession Trading - Historical data shows that asset volatility increases during U.S. recession trading phases, with risk assets experiencing a greater increase in volatility compared to safe-haven assets [2] - Specifically, the volatility amplification factor for risk assets (e.g., Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index) is greater than that for safe-haven assets (e.g., gold, U.S. Treasuries, Chinese bonds, A-share dividends) [2] Group 3: All-Weather Strategy Model - Investors need to focus on the asymmetric pricing risks in their portfolios, particularly the underestimation of U.S. recession risks [3] - The ranking of volatility amplification factors for various assets during past U.S. recession trading periods is as follows: Nasdaq > India SENSEX30 > Hang Seng Tech > U.S. Treasuries > Gold > Chinese bonds > Bitcoin > A-share dividends [3] - Adjustments to asset allocation based on corrected volatility factors indicate an increase in weight for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing weight for Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [3]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 中长期投资者要深刻解读世界秩序重塑方向和权衡各类资产性价比。开年来，两大关键变量（Deepseek+对等 关税）都进一步强化新投资范式底层逻辑（逆全球化加剧、AI产业趋势、债务周期）。新投资范式2.0，全球风险溢价 中枢抬升，可能会放大非对称定价风险带来的波动。当前全球风险资产基本已修复至4.2 "对等关税"前的水平，非对称 定价风险在于大类资产对美国衰退的风险定价不足。我们认为，美国"衰退交易"是非常好的非对称交易——即赢多输少 的交易策略。 本篇，主要探讨全天候策略模型如何修正对美国衰退低估的风险？ ● 历次衰退交易启动往往领先于美国实质性陷入NBER衰退的时间。 美国衰退交易大类资产典型特征：美股&工业金属 下跌、10Y美债利率下行、美国信用利差走阔、美股防御股跑赢周期股。复盘经验：1990.9、2001.3、2007.12、2020.3 （除2020.3由于新冠疫情突发事件冲击），历次美国衰退交易的启动通常显著领先美国国家经济研究局（NBER）宣布 的美国经济实质性陷 ...

智通财经APP获悉，一项对经济学家的最新调查显示，美联储还需要数月时间才能清楚了解特朗普政府 政策变动将如何影响美国经济，因此政策制定者在九月之前不太可能考虑调整利率。 这项在6月6日至11日进行的调查显示，超过90%的受访经济学家表示，美联储至少要到九月才可能获得 足够的清晰度，以判断特朗普政府贸易、移民和财政支出政策对经济的影响。略多于一半的受访经济学 家认为，这种清晰度要等到第四季度，甚至有些人认为要等到今年之后才会显现。 大多数受访经济学家表示，通胀率和失业率都有走高的风险。一半受访者认为，特朗普政府的政策对通 胀和就业构成了同样的威胁。对于哪一方面临更高的风险，其余多数经济学家意见不一。 对于美联储降息前景，预测中值显示，受访经济学家继续预测9月和12月将分别降息25个基点。 不过，特朗普政府关税政策的预期影响尚未显现出来。美国5月CPI低于预期，失业率则稳定在4.2%。 尽管如此，美国企业已表示愿意将部分关税成本转嫁给消费者。同时，也有证据表明，外国劳动力大幅 减少可能正在导致劳动力市场收紧，从而有助于抑制失业率的上升。 市场目前普遍预计，美联储将在下周的政策会议上连续第四次按兵不动。政策制定者们 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows narrow fluctuations with a slight increase across the board, indicating that the weak fundamentals will limit the height of any potential rise, and future volatility is likely to adjust downward, benefiting from inflows of risk-averse funds [17] - In the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts, the demand for safe-haven assets may lead to a resurgence in bond prices as stock market volatility is expected to increase [17] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a downward trend with a total trading volume of 1.5 trillion, an increase of 0.2 trillion from the previous day, with less than 800 stocks rising and over 4200 stocks declining, reflecting a decrease in market risk appetite due to geopolitical tensions [20] - Investors are advised to take profits and shift positions to sectors such as low-yield dividends, agriculture, and technology, as the likelihood of a bullish market is low under current weak fundamentals [20][21] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market saw slight increases with the Dow Jones up 0.24%, Nasdaq up 0.24%, and S&P 500 up 0.38%, while concerns over rising bond yields and potential recession narratives may present better buying opportunities in the future [24] - The current market is likely in a phase of head consolidation, suggesting that investors should avoid short-term risks and wait for better buying points [24] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1814, a decrease of 13 basis points from the previous close, with expectations for the RMB to rise to around 7.1 due to favorable trade conditions [28] Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.93%, with oil, polyester, and coal chemical sectors leading the gains, while construction materials and non-ferrous metals lagged behind, suggesting a cautious approach due to high volatility in oil prices [32]

原油出现大量空头回补，同时也有投机性买盘入场，交易员仍将保持高度警惕，并寻求对冲下周"跳空风险"。 周五早盘风云突变。随着以色列当地时间凌晨对伊朗发动空袭，市场的平静被瞬间打破。市场人士认为，此次袭击意味着地缘局势取代经贸政策再次成为市 场的主要影响因素。 据记者了解，高盛交易台信息显示，随着袭击行动的确认，交易量迅速飙升。WTI原油期货价格在几分钟内就飙升了4%，三日累计涨幅达15%，VIX期货大 涨近13%。当前亚洲市场的交易量是过去10天同期平均值的8至10倍。 就市场来看，避险情绪刺激黄金周五早盘突破3400美元整数关口，此前数周的盘整行情或被打破，多头有望重新接管走势。由于市场担心伊朗可能采取封锁 霍尔木兹海峡在内的报复措施（全球20%的原油贸易由此经过），WTI原油期货一度上涨12%突破77美元/桶，油价有望就此突破过去三年的下行趋势。日元 和瑞郎等避险货币不同程度走强。与此同时，美国三大指数期货盘后时间跌幅都在1.5%左右，亚太股市开盘普遍下跌，澳元重挫1%。截至北京时间6月13日 14:20，WTI原油期货价格暂时回落至72美元附近。 历史也显示，1973年仅5%的供应中断就导致油价上涨四倍， ...