1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, significantly impacts the prices of various commodities. Oil - related products are particularly sensitive to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with supply disruptions leading to price fluctuations. - Different industries face different supply - demand dynamics. For example, some industries have supply shortages due to geopolitical factors, while others are affected by domestic policies and seasonal demand. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Logic: Oil prices dropped significantly during the day as the US - Iran situation showed signs of cooling. - Fundamentals: The Strait of Hormuz is not navigable. Kuwait has stopped oil production, and Iraq has cut production by 70%. Refineries have reduced their operating loads, causing a shortage of refined oil products. The G7 and the IEA are discussing the release of oil reserves, and Saudi Aramco is providing spot oil supplies, which has eased market pressure [3]. - Macro: Geopolitical tensions have led to soaring oil prices, impacting inflation and economic growth. Middle - Eastern countries face increased fiscal pressure, and the market has a short - term risk - aversion tendency [3]. - Geopolitical: The US - Iran conflict is the focus. Trump said the war would end soon, and the oil price showed a downward trend with the cooling of geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical premiums are expected to remain high in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - Logic: High - sulfur fuel oil continues to be strong due to supply disruptions in the Middle East, while low - sulfur fuel oil has limited fundamental support [5][6]. - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil: On March 9, FU hit the daily limit again due to supply cuts in the Middle East. The G7 is discussing the release of strategic oil reserves. The war - risk insurance rate in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has increased. The high - sulfur internal - external price difference has decreased but is still high. Russian supply disruptions also support high - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil: It has risen with crude oil, but the fundamentals are weak. There are new supplies from some refineries, and the demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is weak [5][6]. 3.1.3 LPG - Logic: Be wary of the risk of price decline after continuous increases. - Fundamentals: Geopolitical tensions persist, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the supply of LPG from the Middle East is expected to shrink. Crude oil prices have soared, strengthening cost support. LPG prices at home and abroad have risen significantly. However, there is a risk of a price correction after continuous increases [7]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - Logic: Pay attention to the latest developments in the geopolitical conflict. - Fundamentals: The TA2605 contract rose 7.53% overnight and significantly reduced its positions. The spot market has a weak trading atmosphere, and the spot basis is strong. PTA production capacity utilization is 81% (+4.4 pct). An PX device in East China has stopped unexpectedly. The demand side shows that the production capacity utilization of polyester, texturing, weaving, and dyeing has increased. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang over the weekend were good, but weak on the day of the report [9]. 3.3 Coal Chemical Industry 3.3.1 Urea - Logic: Supply and policies limit the emotional premium. - Fundamentals: The guidance price restricts the price increase. Factories stabilize prices to fulfill orders, and downstream demand is cautious. The domestic urea market has a situation of both supply and demand being strong. Spring plowing demand is ongoing, and industrial demand is recovering, providing some support to the price. However, the high daily production and the stable guidance price limit the price increase space [11]. 3.3.2 Methanol - Logic: Be wary of the risk of a high - level correction after the overnight plunge in oil prices. - Fundamentals: The energy - chemical sector rose collectively on Monday, but the night session opened high and went low. The near - month contracts did not continue to hit the daily limit due to high port inventories and exchange risk - control measures. The market is worried about the supply disruption of Middle - Eastern goods in the long - term, increasing the activity of far - month contracts. There is a risk of negative feedback from downstream and a disconnection between futures and spot prices [12][13]. 3.4 Salt Chemical Industry 3.4.1 Soda Ash - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The short - term spot sentiment follows the futures market. The cost of coal has not increased, and the supply remains high, but the daily output has decreased slightly. The demand is mainly speculative. In the long - term, the high - inventory situation needs to be improved through factory production cuts or increased exports, but the upward driving force is not clear [14]. 3.4.2 Glass - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The spot sentiment has improved, following the futures market. Two production lines were shut down, reducing the supply. The short - term speculative demand has been released, but the actual rigid demand is still weak. The supply is expected to continue to decline, and the market will fluctuate between weak demand and low supply. The real improvement in the supply - demand situation may come after the real - estate market recovers in the second quarter [15][17]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - Logic: High - level fluctuations intensify. - Fundamentals: The shortage of ethylene affects foreign production capacity. Although the domestic caustic soda market has a contradiction between high production and high inventory, the expected improvement in exports supports the price increase. The key to the price increase lies in the navigation time of the Strait of Hormuz. If the export demand, new alumina production demand, and spring inspection demand of caustic soda factories resonate, the price may rise further [18]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - Logic: The conflict may end, and copper prices are oscillating strongly. - Fundamentals: Inventories in Shanghai and London have increased, and the short - term macro - risk aversion has declined, with the US dollar falling, supporting copper prices. Although downstream demand has improved, it is suppressed by the strong US dollar. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. Trump's hint that the war is about to end has led to an increase in copper prices [19]. 3.5.2 Gold - Logic: The employment market has declined, and gold prices are oscillating strongly. - Fundamentals: The Middle - East situation may lead to long - term inflation through the energy channel, which may cause central banks to tighten monetary policies, reducing the anti - inflation appeal of gold. Trump's statement that the war is about to end has led to a weakening of the US dollar, supporting the rise of gold prices [20][21]. 3.5.3 Silver - Logic: The price has broken through the resistance and risen. - Fundamentals: The US non - farm unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, and the weak data has made the market expect the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. However, the strong US dollar and the escalation of the Middle - East conflict have suppressed silver prices. Trump's statement that the war may end soon has led to a decline in the US dollar's safe - haven function, and silver prices have broken through [22].

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 10 日 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 联系人 张一帆 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 zhangyifan@huayuanstock.com 中东局势扰动下，债市如何演绎？ 事件：2026 年 2 月 28 日，美国和以色列联合对伊朗发动"先发制人"军事打击， 伊朗对以色列及中东地区多处目标予以还击，除此之外，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队于 3 月 5 日表示，在冲突时期，伊朗有权控制霍尔木兹海峡的通行和航行，美国、以色 列和欧洲国家船只被禁止通行。 本轮原油价格节奏或快于 2022H1 俄乌冲突时期。俄乌冲突发生于 2022 年 2 月 24 日，发生后一个月内原油价格脉冲式上涨，突破 100 美元/桶。4 个月后原油价格逐 步下行，一年后恢复正常。本轮原油价格波动节奏与其较具相似性，但节奏或快于 2022H1，原因或系 2022 年 OPEC+闲置产能较为充裕，叠加制裁与政策干预滞后， 地缘风险溢价维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in global oil prices, which in turn may drive up PPI. However, the impact on CPI is relatively limited. The relationship between PPI and interest rates is complex, and historical data shows that the impact of PPI on interest rates varies in different periods. Currently, the bond market lacks a clear trading logic, and inflation factors may affect short - term pricing [1][2][30]. - The fiscal policy strength is not weak when considering new policy - based financial instruments. The reduction of the generalized deficit rate is small. Local governments face difficulties in leveraging, while the central government is increasing its leverage. The debt - reduction progress of financing platforms is over 70%, and the bottom - line risk of local government debt is under control. The government is relatively satisfied with the current broad - spectrum interest rate level [31][37][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to View Inflation and the Bond Market? - As of March 9, the Strait of Hormuz remained unnavigable, with a large number of ships congested. Brent crude oil futures prices soared above $110 per barrel. Historically, rising oil and commodity prices lead to an increase in PPI, while the impact on CPI is relatively small [12][15][18]. - PPI has a greater impact on interest rates than CPI. Historically, when PPI reverses its trend or turns from negative to positive, it may put short - term pressure on interest rates. However, in the last two periods of continuous PPI increase, the impact on interest rates was relatively small. Currently, the market lacks a trading logic, and inflation factors may affect short - term pricing [20][21][30]. - There are also some trend - improving factors in inflation, such as the rising prices of non - ferrous metals driven by AI demand and the support of core inflation due to the slowdown in the decline of second - hand housing prices [25][30]. 3.2 Rethinking the Details of the Two Sessions 3.2.1 Is the Fiscal Strength Strong? What Does It Reflect? - The fiscal strength is not weak. The generalized deficit rate decreases slightly. If new policy - based financial instruments are considered, the fiscal policy strength is comparable to that of 2025. The reason for the flat new local special bonds is that local governments face difficulties in leveraging, while new policy - based financial instruments are a form of central government leveraging [31][34]. - A significant portion of the 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds is used to replace hidden debts and pay off government arrears, indicating that local governments still face a heavy historical debt burden. The central government's direction of increasing leverage is clear, but the imagination space for fiscal policy is limited. Future efforts should focus on the revenue side [36]. 3.2.2 How to Look Forward to the Debt - Reduction Progress and Urban Investment Risks? - As of the end of last year, compared with the beginning of 2023, the number and debt scale of financing platforms have both decreased by more than 70%. The overall progress and speed of platform withdrawal are relatively fast [37]. - The orderly resolution of risks in real estate, local government debt, and local small and medium - sized financial institutions remains one of the major strategic tasks. The bottom - line risk of local government debt is under the government's key attention. Although urban investment bonds have valuation fluctuation risks, there is no need to overly worry about the bottom - line risk [41]. 3.2.3 How to Understand the Stance of Monetary Policy? - The government's statement of "promoting the low - level operation of the social comprehensive financing cost" this year is weaker than that of "promoting the decline of the social comprehensive financing cost" in 2025, indicating that the government is relatively satisfied with the current broad - spectrum interest rate level [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight in the short term, and relatively recommends the allocation of TS and TF [1] Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical conflict stage affects market expectations of inflation and the economy, and the Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset portfolio construction and manage the positions of risk assets in the short term [1] - The market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to the verification of real - world data [1] - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance Summary - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with shipping futures leading the gains, and energy, chemical, and other sectors also rising. Some varieties such as crude oil and asphalt had significant increases. However, basic metals and precious metals mostly declined [1] Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Analysis - Overseas: The stage of geopolitical conflict is crucial for the market's inflation and economic expectations, and the Fed will act when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended for asset allocation [1] - Domestic: After the release of the report, the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the focus will shift to data verification [1] Asset Views - Short - term: Downgrade the previous overweight recommendation for stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommend the allocation of TS and TF. Stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by monetary tightening expectations [1] Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial**: Stock index futures, index options, and bond futures are expected to be in a shock state. Risk factors still exist, and attention should be paid to factors such as incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate. Inflation expectations suppress interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to US fundamental data, Fed policies, and geopolitical trends [4] - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European line in the second half of March stopped falling and rose, and the Middle East route is seeking alternative routes. The market is expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events and shipping traffic [4] - **Black Building Materials**: Affected by geopolitical risks, costs are rising. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as mine production and policy dynamics [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Oil price fluctuations dominate the market, and most basic metals are in a wide - range shock. Some varieties such as aluminum and nickel are expected to be slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances and policy changes [4] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Geopolitical situations may lead to production cuts in oil - producing countries, and aromatics have a demand for price increases. Most varieties are expected to be in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and geopolitical events [4][5] - **Agriculture**: Geopolitical conflicts disrupt the market, and agricultural products fluctuate greatly. Most varieties are in a shock state, and attention should be paid to factors such as geopolitical events, weather, and policies [5]

Group 1 - The overall bond market has shown a recovery trend since mid-January, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below 1.8%, leading to decreased buying intensity from major banks, while non-bank institutions still prefer leveraged arbitrage strategies [2][14] - The growth target for 2023 has been revised down to a range of 4.5%-5%, marking a more pragmatic tone in fiscal policy, with a fiscal deficit rate set at 4% [3][20] - The net financing of government bonds for the year is expected to be 13.83 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 200 billion yuan compared to last year, which may alleviate supply concerns [3][25] Group 2 - The actual fiscal deficit scale for 2025 is expected to be nearly 600 billion yuan lower than the target, with the realization of the 30.01 trillion yuan general public budget expenditure target in 2026 requiring a significant adjustment of 2.05 trillion yuan [4][36] - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, with a significant amount of MLF and reverse repos injected into the market, maintaining liquidity despite a reduction in the scale of 3M reverse repos [5][40] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to find support around 1.8%, and if liquidity remains ample, there may be opportunities for long-term bonds to recover after adjustments [8][14] Group 3 - The current economic environment is still in a seasonal downturn, with the February PMI below the growth line, but the marginal impact on the bond market is limited [6][59] - The recent decline in the 1-year policy bank bond yield to around 1.5% reflects both the controlled liability pressure on banks and the potential tightening of interbank deposit self-discipline [5][52] - The overall fiscal expenditure growth rate for 2026 is expected to be significantly lower than that of 2025, indicating potential downward pressure on fiscal policy [39][42]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The stock index will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. The global stock market risk appetite has significantly declined due to the escalating Middle - East geopolitical crisis, rising oil prices, and potential stagflation risks. However, China's macro - economy is resilient, with a moderate price level, an appropriately loose monetary policy, and clear policy support, providing strong support for the stock index [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "range oscillation". The core logic is that continuous policy benefits stabilize the economic fundamentals [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range oscillation". The core logic is that yesterday, the stock indexes opened significantly lower, recovered after hitting the bottom, and closed slightly down. The escalating Middle - East geopolitical crisis has led to a sharp rise in global oil prices, increasing the risk of global stagflation and hindering the central bank's monetary easing rhythm, which has a negative impact on stock prices. But China's macro - economy is resilient, with a moderate price level, an appropriately loose monetary policy, and clear policy support, so the stock index has strong support [5].

Core Viewpoint - In February, China's PPI and CPI both exceeded market expectations, with PPI and CPI surpassing Wind's consensus forecast by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [1] Group 1: PPI Analysis - The strong performance of PPI is primarily driven by rising prices in non-ferrous metals and crude oil, which are input factors [1] - Estimated contributions to PPI's month-on-month increase include non-ferrous smelting (0.32 percentage points), chemicals (0.08 percentage points), computer communications (0.08 percentage points), and oil extraction (0.04 percentage points) [1] - The anticipated timing for PPI's year-on-year positive growth may be advanced further [1] Group 2: CPI Analysis - Key drivers for CPI include price increases in the service sector (air tickets, car rentals, travel agencies, hotel accommodations) and rising prices of crude oil and gold, in addition to the "Spring Festival misalignment" factor [1] - Under the current fluctuating geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, there may be sustained upward momentum in crude oil prices [1] - An estimated 1% increase in Brent crude oil prices could lead to a PPI increase of approximately 0.04 to 0.05 percentage points and a CPI increase of 0.01 to 0.02 percentage points [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank of China is not expected to tighten monetary policy due to oil supply shocks and price increases, with a greater focus on observing changes in demand-side factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on the U.S. stock market, particularly highlighting the sharp decline in major indices and the surge in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Market Impact - The U.S. stock market experienced a substantial drop, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling over 800 points at one point, and major indices closing down significantly: Dow down 1.3%, Nasdaq down 0.64%, and S&P 500 down 0.94% [3]. - Major technology stocks also faced declines, with Tesla dropping nearly 3% and other tech giants like Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia falling over 1% [3]. - Airline stocks plummeted due to rising oil prices, with United Airlines down over 7% and Delta, American, and Southwest Airlines down over 5% [3]. - Banking stocks also saw significant losses, with Jefferies down over 4% and major banks like Citigroup and Wells Fargo down over 3% [3]. Oil Price Surge - Oil prices surged dramatically, with WTI crude futures rising over 14% and Brent crude futures increasing over 13% [1]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant drop in oil production, with estimates suggesting a decrease of over 4 million barrels per day, potentially reaching 9 million barrels per day by the end of March, which is about 10% of global demand [3][5]. - Iran has warned that if the conflict continues, oil prices could exceed $200 per barrel, indicating a severe potential impact on global energy markets [6][7]. Geopolitical Tensions - The article highlights the ongoing military actions between Iran and Israel, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps conducting strikes against U.S. bases and Israeli targets, further escalating tensions in the region [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the market may be underestimating the duration and impact of the conflict, leading to a "snowball effect" that accelerates oil price increases [4]. Monetary Policy Implications - The rising oil prices and energy market volatility are influencing the monetary policy outlook for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, with expectations for interest rate hikes being adjusted significantly [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On March 6, the capital market showed a situation where the capital side remained loose, the bond market weakened, the convertible bond market followed the rise, and the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities were differentiated, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally rising [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools, and expand the scale of re - loans from 500 billion yuan to 800 - 1000 billion yuan [4]. - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year, with the expenditure total, new government bond scale, and central transfer payments to local governments reaching new highs, and launching a package of policies to promote domestic demand [5]. - The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and optimize the refinancing mechanism [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will set up a national - level merger fund, expected to leverage over 1 trillion yuan of funds [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.4278 trillion US dollars, an increase of 2.87 billion US dollars from the end of January, and gold reserves increased for the 16th consecutive month [8]. - **International News** - In February, the US non - farm employment decreased by 92,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the average hourly wage increased, intensifying stagflation concerns [9][10]. - In January, US retail sales decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the first negative growth since October 2025 [11]. - **Commodities** - On March 6, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and NYMEX natural gas futures prices increased. COMEX spot gold also rose [12]. 3.2 Capital Side - **Open Market Operations** - On March 6, the central bank conducted 44.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 269 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 224.2 billion yuan [14]. - **Funding Rates** - On March 6, the capital side remained loose. DR001 rose 4.94bp to 1.319%, and DR007 fell 0.58bp to 1.415% [16]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On March 6, the bond market weakened. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 0.50bp to 1.7880%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 0.25bp to 1.9540% [19]. - **Bond Tendering** - The 3 - year 25进出13(增11) was issued with a scale of 6 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.5543%, a full - field multiple of 4.26, and a marginal multiple of 1.74. The 30 - year 26附息国债02(续2) was issued with a scale of 34 billion yuan, a winning yield of 2.2756%, a full - field multiple of 5.15, and a marginal multiple of 2.1 [21]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities** - On March 6, the transaction prices of 6 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H3 万科 01" fell more than 24%, and several other bonds of Vanke rose [21]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Many companies such as Agile Group, Oriental Fashion, Lingnan Co., Ltd., and Sunac Real Estate announced debt - related issues [22]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes** - On March 6, the A - share market rose, and the convertible bond market also strengthened. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%, 0.19%, and 0.36% respectively [23]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On March 9, Changgao Convertible Bond will start online subscription. On March 6, Yuhetian's convertible bond issuance was approved, and several convertible bonds announced conditions such as approaching the conversion price downward revision and early redemption [28]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market** - On March 6, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities were differentiated. The 2 - year yield fell 1bp to 3.56%, and the 10 - year yield rose 2bp to 4.15%. The 2/10 - year and 5/30 - year yield spreads both expanded by 3bp [26][27]. - **European Bond Market** - On March 6, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major European economies generally rose. Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK increased by 1bp, 4bp, 7bp, 5bp, and 9bp respectively [30]. - **Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on March 6, the daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [32].

在2026年全国两会期间，全国政协委员、中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌接受证券时报记者专访时表示，当前更应重视货币政策在扩大 内需中的作用。与直接通过增加政府支出及其带来的乘数效应扩大内需不同，适度宽松的货币政策通过改善预期，并优化企业投资、居民购房及消费所面 临的预算约束与激励机制，从而有效扩大内需。 在张斌看来，短期内做好总需求管理，主要依靠逆周期财政政策和货币政策。今年在扩大投资方面，投资重心应转向"投资于人"，加大对公共设施、公共 服务的投资力度。在提振消费方面，注重发展服务消费，从"小切口"入手，加大文旅、赛事、康养等领域的改革试点力度，引导民营经济深度参与。 （全国政协委员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌） 重视货币政策在扩大内需中的作用 2026年，我国所面临的外部环境不确定性大，国内供强需弱的格局还在延续，存在一定的总需求缺口。张斌指出，尽管我国供给端表现较好，生产力持续 提升、产业发展不断取得突破，但由于需求不足的问题尚未得到根本解决，当前企业收入水平整体偏低，盈利也因此受到影响，进而传导到劳动力市场， 导致工资增长放缓、就业岗位减少，企业偿付债务的能力也受到影响。 ...