Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, treasury bond futures all rebounded in a volatile manner. The latest macroeconomic indicators have weakened, indicating potential concerns on the demand side. A relatively loose monetary and credit environment is needed in the future, and there are still expectations for interest rate cuts, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. Additionally, recent intensified disturbances in the expectations of the overseas Federal Reserve's monetary policy have led to sharp fluctuations in silver, boosting the investment demand for treasury bonds due to the risk - averse sentiment. However, the central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut in January, and the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has slowed down. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On February 5th, the People's Bank of China announced that it carried out 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method with an operation rate of 1.4%. At the same time, it carried out 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, and multiple - price winning method. With 345 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturing today, the open market achieved a net injection of 64.5 billion yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of weak demand, macroeconomic uncertainties, and a strong dollar impacting prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum alloy futures contract (2603) closed at 21,915 CNY, down 430 CNY, a decrease of 1.92%, with a trading volume of 6,836 lots, down 1,370 lots, and an open interest of 4,361 lots, down 169 lots [1]. - On February 5, the average price for aluminum alloy ADC12 was reported at 23,500 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY; A356.2 at 25,700 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY; A380 remained stable at 25,000 CNY/ton; ZL102 at 25,100 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY; and ZLD104 at 25,000 CNY/ton, down 200 CNY [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum remains tight, supporting high-cost levels for aluminum alloy, while demand is weakening as downstream enterprises reduce operations ahead of the Spring Festival [2]. - The market is characterized by high aluminum alloy prices, with sellers reluctant to lower prices, leading to a cautious purchasing atmosphere and low trading activity [2]. - Overall, while tight supply and cost support maintain high aluminum prices, low inventory buildup intentions and fluctuating macroeconomic sentiment are expected to lead to price adjustments in the short term [2].

博弈焦点：三大关键变量决定黄金下一步走向当前，黄金市场正站在一个十字路口，其未来走势将紧密围绕三大核心变量展开激烈博弈。首先，也是迫在眉 睫的，是即将于2月11日发布的美国1月非农就业报告。 这份因政府停摆而推迟的报告，已成为全球市场的焦点。在此之前公布的ADP民间就业数据不及预 期，仅为增加2.2万个岗位，远低于预估，这为劳动力市场蒙上了一层阴影。 市场正在艰难权衡：当前由科技股领跌的股市动荡，究竟是典型的避险情绪（通常利好美元），还是美国经济核心板块恶化的信号？非农数据将成为解答这 一疑惑、并重塑美联储利率路径预期的关键。美联储政策预期的任何变化——无论是降息预期提前还是推迟，都将通过美元和实际利率渠道，直接而猛烈地 冲击金价。其次，地缘政治局势呈现"冰火两重天"的复杂态势。 然而，更具权威性的美国1月非农就业报告因政府停摆而推迟至2月11日发布，这一关键数据的缺席使市场处于观望状态，等待更明确的经济政策路径指引。 其他贵金属表现分化：现货白银上涨1.3%，至每盎司86.08美元，尽管较上周创下的历史高点大幅回撤，但年初至今涨幅仍超过20%，显示其波动性显著高 于黄金。铂金与钯金也均录得小幅上涨。 美元的 ...

周四(2月5日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格急速下挫，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4871.03美元/盎司，下跌 1.86%，最高触及5023.39美元/盎司，最低下探4791.69美元/盎司。美国与伊朗同意周五在阿曼举行会 谈，市场避险情绪有所降温。另外，美元指数延续隔夜反弹走势，也令金价承压。 市场内部的技术性调整压力也不容忽视。金价在短时间内攀升至前所未有的高度，积累了丰厚的获利 盘。部分投资者选择"落袋为安"，进行获利了结，这自然引发了价格的回落。 此外，美联储理事丽莎.库克周三强调，美联储迫切需要通过在近期将通胀拉回目标水平来恢复其公信 力。她的言论表明，在持续的经济和政治压力下，美联储将坚定地关注物价稳定。 昨日黄金市场宽幅震荡，早盘开盘在4946.2的位置后行情先回落给出4906.4的位置后行情强势拉升，日 线最高触及到了5093.4的位置后行情高位整理，美盘时段行情快速回落，日线最低给到了4847.6的位置 后行情尾盘强势拉升，日线最终收线在了4965.2的位置后，日线以一根上影线长于下影线的长脚十字星 形态收线，而这样的形态收尾后，本周下方4400的多减仓后止损上移放到4500，今日先拉升的话5080 ...

一、先搞懂为啥金银价 "上蹿下跳"？不是随机乱涨，背后有门道 金银价一会儿涨上天、一会儿跌到位，不是市场 "抽风"，主要是三个因素在控场，搞懂了这些，就知道行情为啥这么疯： 1. 美联储政策是 "指挥棒"，加息降息直接影响涨跌 美联储就像金银市场的 "裁判"，它的利率政策一变，金银价大概率跟着动。比如 1 月底，特朗普提名鹰派的沃什当美联储主席，市场担心他会收紧货币政 策（比如加息、缩表），美元走强，金银价立马跳水 ——3 天内金价跌了 407 美元，银价更惨，直接跌了 25%。可到了 2 月初，市场又觉得 "鹰派政策未必 能落地"，毕竟美国现在欠了 38 万亿美元国债，利息支出比军费还高，真加息可能扛不住，于是资金又冲回金银市场，推动价格反弹。 简单说：美联储放宽松（降息），金银容易涨；美联储收紧（加息），金银容易跌。2026 年美联储政策还可能 "反复横跳"，这也是金银价波动大的重要原 因。 2. 避险情绪是 "催化剂"，越乱越容易涨 金银的 "老本行" 是避险 —— 全球经济不稳、地缘冲突多的时候，大家就会把钱换成金银 "避险"。比如 2025 年地缘冲突升级，加上美国可能面临政府 "停 摆" 风险，不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations around 0.7768, with a lack of a clear trend due to a balance of risk factors and policy divergence between the US and Switzerland [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The core of the fundamental analysis is the policy divergence between the US and Switzerland, alongside a counterbalance of risk aversion [1] - The Federal Reserve's January minutes indicated a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for more evidence of inflation cooling before considering rate cuts, with a less than 9% probability of a rate cut in March [1] - High interest rate expectations support the USD's yield advantage, attracting capital inflows and providing upward support for the exchange rate [1] - The Swiss National Bank maintains a neutral stance without following the global tightening trend, with the CPI for December 2025 at 1.1%, within the 0-2% target range, indicating no urgent need for tightening [1] - The current CHF exchange rate is considered reasonable, with weak intervention intentions from the central bank, supported by its safe-haven status and moderate economic recovery [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and disruptions in Red Sea shipping, have heightened risk aversion, leading to capital inflows into the CHF, which suppresses the exchange rate [1] - The recent pullback in US equities has triggered a sell-off in risk assets, highlighting the USD's safe-haven attributes and attracting some risk-averse capital [1] - The interplay between these factors results in a lack of a clear directional trend for the exchange rate, leading to continued narrow fluctuations [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook shows a consolidation phase with a balance between bulls and bears, with the exchange rate hovering around the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.7780-0.7800, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a rise towards 0.7850, while support is at 0.7740, with a drop below that level indicating a test of the critical 0.7700 line [2] - Indicators show weak bullish and bearish momentum, with MACD near the zero line and RSI in a neutral range of 48-52, suggesting a potential upcoming breakout [2] - The focus for today is on the US initial jobless claims data, which will directly impact Fed policy expectations and the USD's performance [2]

基本面： 白银图表： ---趋势判断---- 目前白银行情为价格上涨趋势。可以布局支撑多单和压力位空单思路。 1. 白银技术图表显示目前K线支撑位83.15附近 周四（02月05日）白银早盘连续反弹走高，保守回落支撑位多单布局，最新报89.20美元/盎司，基本面：经济数据方面，当日公布的美国1月ADP民间就业 岗位增长仅为22000个，远低于市场预期的48000个，这为美国劳动力市场可能放缓提供了早期信号。然而，更具权威性的美国1月非农就业报告因政府停摆 而推迟至2月11日发布，这一关键数据的缺席使市场处于观望状态，等待更明确的经济政策路径指引。其他贵金属表现分化：现货白银上涨1.3%，至每盎司 86.08美元，尽管较上周创下的历史高点大幅回撤，但年初至今涨幅仍超过20%，显示其波动性显著高于黄金。铂金与钯金也均录得小幅上涨。 美元的走强，背后是美国服务业数据展现出的韧性。供应管理协会（ISM）报告显示，美国1月非制造业PMI持稳于53.8，同时投入成本上升，引发了市场对 服务业通胀可能反弹的担忧。这种经济数据上的微妙变化，暂时为美元提供了支撑，从而对黄金形成"天花板"效应。与此同时，市场内部的技术性调整压力 ...

万国黄金集团 中信证券认为，贵金属将受益于货币属性和避险情绪共振延续强势。值得一提的是，此前，万国黄金集 团发布公告，预期2025年度公司拥有人应占溢利约14亿至15亿元，同比增长约143%至161%。根据董事 会目前所得资料，预期溢利增加主要是由于黄金产品销售量及价格上升所致。 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 15.73 1.06 7.23% 9.54% 6.34% 3.20% 0.00% 3.20% 6.34% 9.54% 13.27 13.74 14.20 14.67 15.14 15.60 16.07 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 81万 162万 244万 万国黄金集团(03939)再涨超8%，截至发稿，涨6.2%，报15.58港元，成交额3.53亿港元。 消息面上，截至2月4日，现货黄金盘中重回5000美元/盎司关口。瑞银策略分析师在研究报告中指出， 从长期视角看，此次金价回调反而为市场注入健康动能。近日，美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今年需要 降息不止100个基点，很期待凯文.沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在 通胀尚未完全回落 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 中短期来看，黄金急需一轮回调走势以清楚不稳定资金。何为不稳定资金？日内、短线、量化等等，都 是不稳定资金。他们有一个共同特点——止损区间较小且态度坚决。不稳定资金的存在，会放大黄金的 波动率。只要将这些资金清除，黄金才会触底反弹，迎来更稳定的多头趋势。 对于日内交易者来说，继续遵循系统信号操作。大起大落的行情，日内交易者的盛宴，每一个买卖信号 都意味着快速的利润兑现。 对于波段交易者和中期持仓交易者，多看少动，等待波动率稳定。波段和中长期交易者，可能面临进场 后浮亏急剧扩大，如果没有充足的止损空间，很容易被迫出局。 趋势方面，长期来看，黄金仍能维持牛市状态，尤其在特朗普执掌白宫的这三年时间。特朗普是一 个"闲不住"的总统，话题感强，经常能挑起地区冲突，避险情绪易受其激进发言而升温。 虽然黄金相比最高点已经下跌数百美金，但只要特朗普选择激化与伊朗的冲突，或者重提格陵兰岛问 题，黄金将有极大概率迅速飙高。 2月4日，疯牛行情的末端，总是出现史诗级的调整。 上周五，黄金史诗级大跌，从最高5450美元到4682美元，跌幅768美元，震惊市场。 本周二，黄金史诗级大涨，从最低点4665美元到 ...

黄金最新行情趋势分析： 2月4日，黄金消息面解析：周三（2月4日）亚市时段，现货黄金连续第二日获得后续买盘支撑，在全球 避险情绪推动下震荡走强，现交投于每盎司5080美元附近，日内涨幅约2.7%。此前隔夜有报道称美国 在阿拉伯海击落一架伊朗无人机，引发市场对美伊紧张局势升级的担忧，促使投资者转向传统避险资 产，这为黄金价格提供了支撑。美联储降息预期进一步助推了金价涨势，这抑制了美元从四年低点反弹 的势头，成为提振无息资产黄金的另一关键因素。经历最新一轮上涨后，金价已从周一触及的4400美元 附近（近四周低点）反弹超过650美元。目前交易者正关注即将公布的美国ADP就业数据和ISM服务业 PMI，以寻求新的交易动能。 黄金技术面分析：当前黄金经过三天大跌1100美金后，反弹幅度已达50%，4950-5000区域是核心压力 位，也是多空分水岭：站稳5000则短线还有反弹空间，若无法有效突破，必然迎来二次回测，后续下行 风险依旧显著。而白银同步走出极端行情，三天大跌50美金，高位121的实物多单，大概率长期难解 救，这更印证了当前行情的控盘属性，绝非普通技术面能预判。目前黄金技术性反抽的首要压力区已上 移至5000 ...