未来涨势仍有空间,但"上车"需理性 展望未来,白银价格仍存在进一步上涨的动力,短期来看,地缘政治的不确定性与美联储货币政策的调整节 奏,将成为影响银价波动的核心因素,如果国际局势持续紧张,或美国加息节奏出现转向,白银价格可能进一 步受到提振,中长期来看,新能源尤其是光伏与电动车产业将成为白银需求的主要增长引擎,2025年光伏装 机规模有望再创新高,白银作为核心导电材料,需求增长可期,同时若全球央行继续增加贵金属储备,白银的 金融价值将进一步被放大。 现在是上车白银的好时机吗? 高地集团认为:白银当前正站在一个历史性机遇的窗口,一方面,避险情绪推动贵金属整体上涨;另一方面, 工业需求与供需缺口支撑其中长期上涨逻辑,但是否"现在就上车",仍需结合自身风险承受能力与投资经 验来判断,对于普通投资者来说,与其追逐短期涨幅,不如通过更稳健的方式参与,比如小额分批建仓或购买 与白银相关的基金产品,同时密切关注美联储政策、国际局势变化以及白银的供应状况,将有助于更好地 把握入场时机,市场从不缺机会,但理性和耐心,才是穿越波动的关键。 在近期的国际金融市场中,白银成为耀眼的资产之一继黄金价格不断刷新历史高位之后,白银价格也大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term investment rating of "oscillating with a bullish bias" for precious metals [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical issues such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US tariff policies have reignited safe - haven demand, supporting the price of gold and driving up the price of silver. The factors affecting precious metals have become more complex, and their price trends are more uncertain [2][3] - Although the better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, the US tariff policy has increased market risk - aversion. The Fed's future rate - cut expectations are more uncertain. Silver has broken through the oscillating range, and the safe - haven demand for gold has strengthened again, but its further upward momentum needs to be observed [28] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Due to the strong US economic data and the Fed's internal differences and tariff - related safe - haven factors, the market's expectation of a July rate cut has weakened, but gold has strengthened again, and US silver has broken through the oscillating range and moved upward [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Market concerns about new US sanctions on Russia have increased potential supply risks and pushed up international oil prices. The EU may join Canada and Japan in countering US tariffs [12][19] - Trump's tariff policy may push up consumer prices, while the labor market shows signs of cooling, posing a difficult problem for the Fed's policy - making [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a two - month low, while the number of continued jobless claims remained at the highest level since the end of 2021 [12][15][16] - Some Fed officials believe that the Fed may cut interest rates in July or twice this year, but policy prospects are highly uncertain [15] - Trump announced new tariff policies on 8 countries, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1 [15][19] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, and recent indicators show that economic activity continues to expand steadily [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US employment data shows a mixed picture, with some positive and some negative signs. The first - quarter GDP shrank, personal consumption growth was weak, and inflation pressure remained [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump's new tariff policies and potential sanctions on Russia have increased market uncertainty. The G7 has reached an agreement on tax issues with the US [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The improvement in the Middle East situation has led to a significant drop in oil prices, weakening US inflation pressure. The divergence in copper prices is due to US tariff policies. The US economy's resilience supports the strength of the US stock market, which is positive for silver [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to multiple factors, the RMB has appreciated significantly and then slightly depreciated, maintaining an appreciation trend. Exchange rates are not a key factor affecting precious metals [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the expectation of a July rate cut, but the tariff policy has increased risk - aversion. The future trend of precious metals needs to pay attention to the US dollar index and the relationship between the US dollar and gold [28]

Gold Market - Last week, gold saw a significant rebound with a maximum weekly increase of nearly 3%, indicating a positive trend [1] - The rise in gold prices is a direct response to Trump's tariff policies, which have heightened global trade risks and increased safe-haven demand [1] - Trump's deadline for reaching tariff agreements with various countries has been postponed to August 1, with strong resistance from EU leaders, suggesting potential backlash [1] - Although tariffs have temporarily boosted U.S. tariff revenues, they may lead to greater long-term issues, including a contraction in U.S. manufacturing, which has been shrinking for four consecutive months [1] - Analysts predict that Trump's tax cuts will increase the deficit by trillions, while tariffs may raise inflation expectations, potentially driving more funds into the gold market [1] - Technically, gold has formed a bullish continuation pattern, with prices above the moving average system and strong upward momentum [1] Oil Market - Last week, oil prices experienced a volatile upward trend, although the overall performance remained weak [2] - Seasonal demand has provided some short-term support for oil prices, with U.S. refinery utilization rates reaching 94.7% as of July 4, indicating increased processing to meet summer travel needs [2] - Despite short-term demand increases, the long-term outlook for oil prices remains challenged by a persistent oversupply, with global oil supply expected to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year, while demand is only projected to grow by 700,000 barrels per day [2] - For next year, global oil demand growth is forecasted at 720,000 barrels per day, while supply growth is expected to be 1.3 million barrels per day, indicating a continued oversupply issue [2] - Technically, oil has formed a bullish pattern, with prices above long-term moving averages and potential for new highs in the short term [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines and increases, likely adjusting from previous gains [3] - The hourly chart indicates a converging pattern, suggesting the potential formation of a symmetrical triangle, with a likelihood of new highs in the short term [3] - Support is noted at the $5.45 level for copper prices [3]

7月14日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价在周末出现上涨，今日还有探涨趋势。目前，周生生黄 金上涨2元/克，报1012元/克，还是最高价金店。最便宜的上海中国黄金还是报价969元/克。今日最高与 最低金店间价差扩大至43元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年7月14日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1005 | 元/克 | 2 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 平 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 平 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 988 | 元/克 | 0 | 平 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 平 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 平 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 平 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1012 | 元/克 | 2 | 涨 | | 菜百黄金价格 | 978 | ...

美联储公布的6月会议纪要显示，19位政策制定者中仅有少数支持本月降息，多数官员对特朗普贸易关 税可能带来的通胀压力表示担忧。尽管特朗普多次要求立即降息并呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，但会议 纪要表明决策者在降息问题上分歧明显。目前市场有关于鲍威尔可能被迫辞职的传言愈演愈烈。 【技术分析】 现货黄金(伦敦金)：从形态结构看,黄金近期低点不断抬高，沿着上涨趋势线不断震荡向上，走出标准上 涨趋势浪节奏。周五晚间多头再次强势发力突破关键压力位3345.0，进一步打开多头上涨空间，后市继 续看多头延续行情。综合MACD指标看，快慢线0轴上方运行，表明多头力量主导行情走势。 摘要7月14日亚市尾盘，贵金属市场呈现显著分化格局。现货黄金小幅攀升至3373.69美元/盎司上方维 持震荡，而现货白银则强势突破39美元/盎司关键位，刷新2011年9月以来逾12年高位，年内累计涨幅已 扩大至35%。市场聚焦即将公布的对俄政策声明，据白宫日程安排，特朗普将于今日就俄罗斯问题发 布"重要声明"，预计涉及新制裁措施。值得注意的是，尽管避险需求持续支撑贵金属估值，但技术面出 现微妙变化——黄金在3370美元附近承压明显，显示短期追高风险偏好下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a rare calm storm, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range, leading to a stalemate between bulls and bears, making technical indicators difficult to interpret [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have been oscillating within a tight range, with daily fluctuations often less than 0.8%, reminiscent of low volatility seen in 2019 [1]. - The trading volume surged by 149% in the first half of the year, indicating high retail investor enthusiasm, while institutional investors have quietly withdrawn, marking the first reversal in five months of capital inflow [1]. - Speculative long positions have reached a 50-year high, suggesting strong bullish sentiment [1]. Group 2: Bullish Factors - Two main bullish factors support gold prices: the impending tariff "bomb" from Trump set to explode on August 1, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions and triggering risk aversion; and a strong trend of central banks increasing their gold reserves, with 90% of central banks indicating plans to do so [1][3]. Group 3: Bearish Factors - Despite potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, indications of sustained high-rate policies could pressure gold prices [3]. - Physical demand for gold is quietly weakening, with a 23% month-on-month decline in India's gold imports in June serving as evidence [3]. Group 4: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on July 10, which could significantly impact market sentiment, and the implementation of the tariff policy on August 1, which may reignite risk aversion and push gold prices higher [3]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - In a period of volatility, it is advised to avoid frequent trading within the narrow range of $3320-$3340 due to thin profit margins; hedging strategies, such as pairing with U.S. dollar bonds, are recommended to mitigate volatility [3]. - The significant increase in trading volume of gold VIX options indicates that some institutional investors are actively positioning themselves [3]. Group 6: Divergent Institutional Outlook - Institutional investor expectations for gold prices diverge significantly, with some predicting a rise to $3600 due to geopolitical risks and central bank purchases, while others foresee a decline to $2500-$2700 by 2026, suggesting that the market has already priced in rate cut expectations [5]. - The Chinese central bank's pause in gold purchases in March has caused market tremors, with emerging market central banks becoming increasingly sensitive to gold purchase costs [5]. Group 7: Market Pressure - The gold market is likened to a pressure cooker, with the Federal Reserve's policy fluctuations and the countdown to the tariff "bomb" increasing market pressure; prolonged consolidation of moving averages may lead to a stronger breakout in the future [6].

摘要今日周日（7月13日）周五，市场因特朗普最新的关税政策而动荡不安。他宣布自8月1日起，将对 加拿大商品全面加征35%的关税，这一税率较现行水平激增了10个百分点。此举迅速点燃了市场的避险 情绪，现货黄金价格应声而起，盘中最高攀升至每盎司3336美元。尽管特朗普随后将关税协议的有效期 延长至8月1日，这一消息一度导致金价有所回落，但市场并未因此平息。 美国总统特朗普8日宣布将对进口铜征收50%的关税，这使得全球最大的铜生产国智利面临严峻挑战。 智利总统博里奇11日表示，智利将捍卫本国的铜产业。博里奇称：在铜的问题上，智利内部不存在任何 分歧，我们团结一致，共同捍卫铜业，因为这种广泛的政治共识，使我们能够捍卫对资源的主权，并决 定我们如何将其用于建设一个更公平、更宜居的世界。作为一个国家，我们拥有制度优势，可以面对这 个动荡世界中的各种突发情况。 今日周日（7月13日）周五，市场因特朗普最新的关税政策而动荡不安。他宣布自8月1日起，将对加拿 大商品全面加征35%的关税，这一税率较现行水平激增了10个百分点。此举迅速点燃了市场的避险情 绪，现货黄金价格应声而起，盘中最高攀升至每盎司3336美元。尽管特朗普随后将 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普宣布对欧盟、墨西哥征收30%关税 美联储古尔斯比：最新的关税威胁或推迟降息 财政部：加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核 科创板试点IPO预先审阅机制 "国铀一号"成功生产下线"第一桶铀" 市场盘点 上周五，美元指数区间震荡，始终徘徊在98关口下方，最终收涨0.307%，报97.85，全周累涨近1%，脱离三年来的低点。美债收益率大涨，基准的10年期美 债收益率收报4.412%，2年期美债收益率收报3.91%。 由于特朗普宣布更多关税信函后避险情绪升温，现货黄金连续第三日走高，盘中触及6月24日以来的最高水平，最终收涨0.99%，收报3355.91美元/盎司；现 货白银涨势更加显著，最终收涨3.56%，报38.38美元/盎司，创2011年9月以来新高。 随着油市焦点转移至美国对俄罗斯的潜在制裁，两油盘中拉升。WTI原油站上67美元关口，最终收涨2.55%，报67.59美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨2.53%，报 70.04美元/桶。 美联储总部翻修问题成扳倒鲍威尔的关键 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices due to new tariffs and market uncertainties, highlighting the potential for gold to serve as a safe-haven asset amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic concerns [1][3]. Market Overview - On July 11, gold prices rose to $3,370 per ounce, marking a 1.34% increase, with COMEX gold futures experiencing three consecutive days of gains [1]. - The market is currently seeing a tug-of-war around the $3,300 per ounce mark, with significant speculative activity noted [2][3]. - In the first half of the year, gold prices reached new highs, with London gold peaking at $3,500 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 28% [3]. Speculative Activity - As of July 1, speculative positions in COMEX gold futures increased to 136,697 contracts, the highest in 11 weeks, but saw a reduction to 134,842 contracts by July 8 [3]. - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation after speculative trading, with gold prices experiencing a range-bound movement since the second quarter [3]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [4]. - Globally, central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 years, with a survey indicating that over 30% of reserve managers plan to increase their gold holdings in the next year [4]. Institutional Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in institutional investment in gold, with public funds and bank wealth management products expanding their "gold+" offerings, which typically allocate 5% to 10% of their portfolios to gold [6]. - The number of funds of funds (FOFs) holding gold ETFs has doubled over the past four years, reaching 234 by mid-2025, compared to just 20 in 2021 [6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term price fluctuations, gold is viewed as a stable asset for long-term allocation, particularly in the context of increasing global uncertainties [7]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and rising national debt is expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against market volatility [8].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in silver prices is driven by a combination of heightened investment demand and industrial usage, with significant growth in sales of investment silver products observed this year [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movement - As of July 11, silver prices reached a 14-year high, with spot prices rising by 3.77% to over $38 per ounce and COMEX futures increasing by 4.74% to surpass $39 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 32% [1]. - The increase in silver prices is attributed to both safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions and rising industrial demand, particularly in the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors [6][10]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Sales of investment silver products, such as silver bars and silver ingots, have surged by over 40% year-on-year, indicating a strong consumer interest [3]. - In June, sales of investment silver bars increased by 20% compared to May, with a notable preference for one-kilogram and 500-gram bars among consumers [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply is struggling to keep pace with demand, with a reported shortfall of 5,000 tons in 2022, a gap that has persisted for five consecutive years [7]. - The World Silver Association projects that the demand for silver will continue to rise, particularly in the automotive sector, where the silver usage in hybrid and electric vehicles is expected to increase by 21% and 71%, respectively, compared to traditional vehicles [6][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Multiple institutions suggest that silver prices have further upward potential due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance and the financial attributes of silver [9]. - The uncertainty in geopolitical situations and the direction of U.S. monetary policy are identified as key factors influencing silver price fluctuations in the short term [10].